[click to play clip]
I did a short interview on Bloomberg yesterday regarding their coverage of Knight Frank’s 2010 Wealth Report
The Bloomberg coverage was in reference to my contribution to the report via interview where they matched me up against their analyst Xavier Wong, Head of Research for Greater China and Hong Kong.
The prime New York market, where prices fell 12.5% in 2009,
is gaining strength , but the recovery is tentative, says Leading New York property commentator Jonathan Miller
The frozen market in Manhattan in the first half of 2009 gave way to a much
stronger second half of the year. By the summer, the market began to see a
recovery in sales activity following an improvement in economic confidence
prompted by a revival in the stock market.
While the market has undoubtedly improved compared with last year,
we ought not to get too excited. The recovery of late 2009 was a short-term
uptick, due in large part to a release in pent-up demand. My view is that the
surge in demand is not the start of a rising housing market. While sales are
up sharply, prices have moved “sideways.”
I have some lingering concerns for the New York market in 2010. The
market has been aided by government stimulus measures – tax credits for
first time buyers, in particular. This package will expire in mid-2010. While
the US economy is growing, the high rate of unemployment – around 10%
and somewhat higher locally – as well as a tight mortgage lending
environment do not provide a firm basis for ongoing growth in house prices.
A real fear for 2010 is rising mortgage rates, currently at near record
lows. The potential for growing foreclosures, which were not a problem in
2009, is another real factor.
One segment of the market that has seen a noticeable uptick has been
international demand, where the weak dollar has prompted interest from
Asia, Europe and South America. Demand from South Korea has also
become more noticeable.
Looking outside New York, both Boston and Washington DC have also
improved, with rising resale volumes in both markets. On Long Island, the
Hamptons luxury second home market has surprised everyone with its
resilience to date. As a discretionary market, there was general concern
that this region would see large declines in prices and sales from the 2008
and early-2009 market turmoil. In fact, both sales and price trends have
remained in line with the Manhattan market.
Watch the clip which summarizes the report [Bloomberg]
Open 2010 Wealth Report [Knight Frank]
Tags: China, Europe, Television