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Archive for July, 2012

[Sand and Sales] 2Q 2012 Palm Beach Report

July 31, 2012 | 9:18 pm | delogo | Reports |

We published our inaugural report on the Palm Beach, Florida sales market for 2Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

Palm Beach, Florida

-Condo sales were up sharply over year ago levels while single family sales slipped over the same period.
-Condo median sales price showed large increase as single family median sale price fell below year ago levels.
-Days on market fell from year ago levels for both condos, single family and luxury properties.
-North End sales edged higher as prices declined.
-South End sales were up sharply over year ago levels while median sales price edged higher.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

CONDO/TOWNHOUSE Median sales price was $470,000, up 16% from $405,000 in the same period last year. Average sales price and average price per square foot increased 11.9% and 2.7% respectively over the same period. There were 119 sales this quarter, 22.7% more than in the prior year quarter…

SINGLE FAMILY There were 39 sales in the second quarter, 11.4% below the 44-sale total in the prior year quarter. The time to sell a property fell by more than two months over the same period. Days on market averaged 250 days, 67 days faster than 317 days in the same period last year…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 12 data. We’ll be adding a chart library for this market area soon!




The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Palm Beach [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Palm Beach [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Full Frontal Waterfront] 2Q 2012 Fort Lauderdale Report

July 31, 2012 | 9:01 pm | delogo | Reports |

We published our inaugural report on the Fort Lauderdale, Florida sales market for 2Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

Fort Lauderdale, Florida

-Overall and luxury price indicators for condo and single family properties saw double-digit increases from prior year.
-Condo and single family sales were below year ago levels but were both the 5th highest quarterly total in more than 6 years.
-Waterfront homes were the only segment to post a year over year increase in sales.
-Days on market fell from year ago levels for both condos, single family and luxury properties.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

CONDO/TOWNHOUSE Median sales price was up 21.2% to $209,000, from $172,440 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price and price per square foot showed similar double-digit gains over the same period. The number of sales declined 7.7% to 608 from 659 in the prior year quarter. With 1,035 listings at the end of the second quarter, the 5.1-month absorption rate was considered tight for the region…

SINGLE FAMILY Listing discount fell to 5.7% from 7.4% in the same period last year. Days on market was 113, 18 days faster than in the same period last year. There were 745 listings and as a result, the absorption rate was 5 months, considered fast relative to other markets in the region…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 12 data. We’ll be adding a chart library for this market area soon!




The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Fort Lauderdale [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Fort Lauderdale [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

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[Breaking Out] 2Q 2012 Boca Raton Report

July 31, 2012 | 8:34 pm | delogo | Reports |

We published our inaugural report on the Boca Raton, Florida sales market for 2Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

Boca Raton, Florida

-All condo price indicators were up year-over-year.
-Condo sales below year ago quarter but second highest sales level in more than 6 years.
-Condos sold two weeks faster that the year ago quarter, taking an average of 158 days.
-Single family price indicators were mixed as the number of sales edged higher.
-Median sales price in luxury market (top 10%) outpaced the overall market.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

CONDO/TOWNHOUSE Median sales prices was $125,000, its highest level in two years, and up 9.4% from $114,250 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price and price per square foot followed the same pattern. Number of sales were 8.1% below prior year levels, but represented 54.2% of all market sales…

SINGLE FAMILY Median sales price slipped 1.7% to $285,000 from prior year levels, while average sales price increased 1.5% to $518,485 over the same period. Number of sales were 1.5% above prior year levels and represented 45.8% of all market sales….

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 12 data. We’ll be adding a chart library for this market area soon!




The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Boca Raton [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Boca Raton [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Three Cents Worth NY #200] Manhattan’s Seasons, “The 200″ Version

July 31, 2012 | 4:01 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world. And I’m simply here to take measurements.

Read today’s 3CW post on @CurbedNY:

…This week I took a another look at seasons. I updated one of my favorite charts from back in 2006 to show seasonality through 2Q 2012. I looked at the quarter-over-quarter change in number of sales and median sales price for the past 22 years and averaged the quarter-over-quarter percent change results of each of the 4 quarters…


[click to expand]


Curbed NY : Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC : Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami : Three Cents Worth Archive

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[More Sales] 2Q 2012 Hamptons & North Fork Report

July 27, 2012 | 10:36 am | delogo | Reports |

We published our report on the Hamptons & North Fork sales market for 2Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

Hamptons & North Fork

-Sales jumped above year ago levels reaching the second highest spring market total in 6 years.
-Median sales price slipped from year ago levels, although average sales price was at 3rd highest level since credit crunch began in 2008.
-Most sales over $5M since credit crunch began – tied with 4Q 2010.
-Listing inventory edged above year ago levels.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The Hamptons and North Fork housing markets were characterized as having their most active spring markets in six years, but both with weaker price levels and modest upticks in listing inventory and marketing time. There were more sales in the second quarter spring market than there have been in any second quarter throughout the past six years. The second quarter total was 676 sales, 9.2% more than 619 sales in the prior year quarter. This total was sharply above the prior quarter result of 381 sales, an unusually light number, given the mild winter and early spring selling season, which suggests a timing issue at play. Listing inventory was 2,452, 5.3% above 2,329 in the same period last year. As a result, the monthly absorption rate was 10.9 months, faster than 11.3 months in the prior year quarter as well as the 12.9-month sixyear average…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 12 data. You can browse our chart library for the latest – updated for 2Q 2012.




The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Hamptons & North Fork Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Hamptons & North Fork [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

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[Better Than Before] 2Q 2012 Long Island Report

July 27, 2012 | 9:36 am | delogo | Reports |

We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 2Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

Long Island

-Despite the warm winter and early start of the spring market, second quarter sales were up 8.9% over last year.
-Pending sales were up 6.4% above year ago levels.
-Median sales price was unchanged from prior and year ago quarters.
-Listing inventory fell 13.2% to a seven year low for the second quarter.
-Negotiability between buyer and seller and days on market remained stable.
-Falling mortgage rates driving demand, despite tight mortgage lending conditions.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The Long Island spring housing market was characterized by stable prices, falling inventory and rising sales activity. This occurred despite some of the tightest mortgage lending conditions in years, as well as elevated unemployment levels and a weak, but slowly improving, regional economy. There were 4,581 sales, 8.9% more than 4,205 in the prior year quarter. Pending sales showed a similar pattern, despite an unusually robust prior quarter, which was attributable to the atypically warm winter…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 12 data. You can browse our chart library for the latest – updated for 2Q 2012.




The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


Translating Miami Real Estate Into Spanish & Portuguese, 2Q 2012 Edition

July 27, 2012 | 8:45 am | delogo | Reports |

South Florida-based Douglas Elliman has translated the Miami market report I prepare to Spanish and Portuguese versions in order to better serve their clients, all in the name of increased market transparency. Love it.

Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Spanish) | Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Portuguese)

[click to open reports]


Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Spanish) 2Q 2012 [Douglas Elliman]
Elliman Report: Miami Sales (Portuguese) 2Q 2012 [Douglas Elliman]
Elliman Report: Miami Sales (English) 2Q 2012 [Douglas Elliman]


Money Mag Shows Us How To ‘Think Like an Appraiser’

July 23, 2012 | 3:18 pm | Public |

The August 2012 issue of Money Magazine on the newsstands now has a nice article penned by Ali Rogers called “Think Like an Appraiser.”

It’s not available online yet but the magazine is always a good read. Although Money Magazine has named me “Best Online Real Estate Expert,” I swear I have offline expertise too.

Ok before you go on with snarky comments about the last appraiser that screwed up your deal, I’ve heard it all before, much of it spoken here on this blog. The article is more about the concept of “contributory value” – how certain modest improvements help provide additional value of your home. In theory, an appraiser is going to walk through your home at time of sale just like your buyer would and place a certain value on things you may have done to improve the property. First impressions are important in building a sense of value for the property.

I’d like to expound on the contract “data” point in the article to provide context (not something I commented on for the article). Appraisers absolutely consider contract data in addition to closed data (and listing data). We can place them in the report but normally are not the sole basis of determining value.

What often happens is that we are told about a home that is under contract nearby but we don’t know the sales price. We will call the listing agent of that “contract” and try to get a sense of the interior condition and the actual price (99% of the time we are NOT successful getting the price) but we sometimes we might get feedback like “sold at list” or “sold very close to ask” etc. This can be a helpful gauge on value but not the key factor in the report presentation, especially since there is a higher probability in today’s market than in year’s past that homes under contract don’t always close.

These bits of info from a little detective work are among the subjective elements to valuation that help “tell the story” of the transaction. It’s not about dropping raw data on a spreadsheet and taking an average.

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Why “Pull From Air” (P.F.A.) Is An Appraisal Term, Pig v. Sheep Explained

July 23, 2012 | 11:41 am | nytlogo | Public |

This weekend I was quoted in the New York Times article “Shooting for the Moon” by Alexei Barrioneuvo which explored some of the crazy prices being asked at the top of the market. Appraisers come across list prices every day that have no rhyme or reason to them.

In providing this quote, I sort of felt like I was in the movie “Babe” which I saw with my kids years ago (admittedly, I liked that movie) sharing that “secret word” that Babe used to get the sheep to talk to him.

I explained the PFA phenomenon as follows:

Within the appraisal industry there is a term for listings based on loose associations to reality, he said: “P.F.A.,” or “Pulled From Air.” As Mr. Miller explains it, “Take the highest sale you can find and apply some methodology in a very subjective way to talk yourself up to this bigger number.”

At the high end of the market, sometimes this approach is successful, but in reality, it is more often successful in new development than re-sales because of the concentrated marketing effort in place and that it is “new” with no benchmark bias already established.

Another name for it (and I just made this up) could be “unprecedented pricing” or UP. Buildings like 15 CPW and One57 in Manhattan and One Hyde Park in London had no real comparable benchmarks and became their own market.


Shooting for the Moon [NYT Real Estate]
Babe (1995) [IMDB]

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[In The Media] Yahoo!’s ‘The Daily Ticker’ With Dan Gross 7-19-12

July 19, 2012 | 2:17 pm | Public |



Had a spirited conversation with my friend Dan Gross, the economics editor at Yahoo! Finance who has a new book out.

Something I thought about before the show that I sort of mentioned but I will mention a lot more going forward:

The state of the housing market is a process rather than a moment.
ie “bottom” becomes “bottoming”, “recovery” becomes “recovering”, “turned the corner” becomes “turning the corner”.

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