Matrix Blog

Archive for September, 2012

[666 Park Avenue] Appraising Fictitious TV Celebrity Apartments

September 28, 2012 | 9:46 pm | Articles |


[click to expand]

In lieu of the new TV show 666 Park Avenue (the devil passed the board interview apparently), the Commercial Observer asked me for some thoughts on the value of some fictitious apartments and properties in some notable TV shows using what limited information was available back in the day and some strained logic (with a slew of hypotheticals and disclaimers) all in the name of fun.

Although the graphic incorrectly uses the building square footage total for no. 3, the graphics people at CO did an absolutely brilliant job with this – love it.

Here’s a cool web site I came across with theoretical floor plans for popular tv shows.



Lifestyles of the Rich and Fictitious [Commercial Observer]
Celebrity Floorplans [Deviant Art]
666 Park Avenue [Wikipedia]

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[Three Cents Worth NY #211] Manhattan Post-War Listing Compression

September 28, 2012 | 12:12 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m simply here to take measurements.

Read this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

…Although my regular Tuesday deadline for my column has long passed me by I wanted to get one more Three Cents Worth column finished before the upcoming release of the Elliman Report for Manhattan sales on Tuesday. Since listings have been in free fall, I thought I’d look for any patterns (hey this is Curbed and I needed an excuse to apply shades of purple to a chart) and I found one that surprised me a bit…

 

[click to read column]


Curbed NY : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed DC : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed Miami : Three Cents Worth Archive

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[Breaking News] CNN Gives Housing Followers Heart Attack, Case Shiller Up 1.2% YOY

September 25, 2012 | 12:01 pm |


[click to open report]

I like this index chart from the report (2nd chart presented in their report) better than the more commonly used % based chart (1st chart presented in their report) because it provides better context. The recent trend is clearly a small see-saw but still sliding in general. I’m not a fan of the CS index for its 5-7 month lag but since it’s some sort of gold standard for housing, it’s important to point out that this clearly shows housing remains tepid at best.

But more importantly…






Shortly after the S&P/Case Shiller report was released this morning at 9:00am, I got the following CNN Breaking News email at 9:15am:

Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities rise to highest level in nine years, according to a new report.

I just about had a heart attack, wondering how I could be so far off in my assessment of the housing market. However I opened the report and the numbers didn’t show that kind of gain.

At 10:21am I received a followup email from CNN Breaking News:

Correction: Home prices rose in July to their 2003 level, but remain lower than the peak in 2006. CNN’s previous alert erroneously stated that home prices had risen to the highest level in nine years.

Not to single CNN out since this has happened at ABC, Breitbart and Fox.

Speed comes at a price: Accuracy.

Similar phenomenon in the appraisal business. The absurd speed demanded by retail banks and AMCs of their appraisers even after the “lessons learned” in this credit crunch, attracts the wrong kind of appraiser. Speed still trumps accuracy.



Home Prices Increase Again in July 2012 [S&P/Case Shiller]

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[Manhattan Absorption] August 2012 – It’s A Lot Faster On The Down Low

September 24, 2012 | 3:35 pm | Charts |

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The “blue” line for average changes very little year to year but the scale of the chart does frequently.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

August 2011 v. August 2012

[click images to expand]

The market below $1M is now moving very quickly – low mortgage rates are causing entry-level apartments to be rapidly absorbed.

Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so this analysis somewhat understates the pace of condo absorption. The Uptown (Northern Manhattan) data set is too thin for a reliable presentation.

 


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel] Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2011 [Miller Samuel]

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[The Housing Helix Podcast] Barry Ritholtz Part 2

September 23, 2012 | 6:36 pm | Podcasts |

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[The Housing Helix Podcast] Barry Ritholtz Part 1

September 23, 2012 | 3:57 pm | Podcasts |

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[Three Cents Worth NY #210] Manhattan Housing Talks Like a Pirate

September 19, 2012 | 5:03 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m simply here to take measurements.

Read this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

…Out of respect for International Talk Like A Pirate Day I thought I’d comment on housing metrics that would provide seaworthy analogies to prepare us for the next round of Manhattan housing market reports (i.e. our 3Q 2012 market reports we’ll be publishing with Douglas Elliman) in less than two weeks when the quarter ends. For this edition of 3CW I matched up Manhattan co-op/condo absorption rates and the year-over-year change in median sales price of the last decade. Absorption covers sales and listing trends and prices cover, well, you know what they cover. For the purposes of my analysis I define absorption as the number of months it would take to sell all active inventory at the current pace of sales…

 

[click to read column]


Curbed NY : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed DC : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed Miami : Three Cents Worth Archive

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Housing Trends & Talk Like A Pirate Day 2012 (10th Anniversary)

September 19, 2012 | 1:42 pm | curbed |

Well, NAR released the August 2012 existing home sale numbers today. Yawn.

More importantly, it’s International Talk Like A Pirate Day and I’ve marked this day on my calendar for nearly as long as the 10-year run it’s had. Just mentioning the annual event to my kids makes them worry about me and yet be embarrassed for me at the the same time.

For more about this important holiday, you can get the story and go right to the founder’s web site.

And yes, home sales are up. [Pirate talk translator]



August Existing-Home Sales and Prices Rise [NAR]
On Talk Like A Pirate Day Jonathan Miller Tells It Like It Is [Curbed DC]
International Talk Like a Pirate Day [Wikipedia]
International Talk Like A Pirate Day [Original Site]
Google’s Pirate Themed Home Page [Google]

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[In The Media] Bloomberg Surveillance 9-18-12 QE3, Low Rates and Housing

September 18, 2012 | 9:14 am | fedny | Public |

Very much enjoyed my conversation with Tom Keene and Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg Television’s Surveillance.

Scratch notes before my appearance:

Some thoughts about the Fed’s QE3 as it relates to housing (Einstein defines insanity as doing something for a 3rd time hoping it works).

-Focus of QE3 seems to be housing, but it shows how little Fed understands housing since this seems to be an effort to press borrowing costs lower.
-Falling rates until now have increased affordability 15% this year but reaction in sales is less. A diminishing return for this action. Yes it temporarily helps but is more akin to the 2010 tax credit – remove it and consumers stop buying.
-Fed must believe recent “happy housing news” isn’t sustainable. Prices and sale generally showing improvement.

-Banks prob won’t drop rates all that much-could even see a slight increase in short term: admin backlog from existing business, guarantee fees by Fannie Mae to kick in a few months and spreads already low. This action provides little traction.

-QE3 doesn’t address THE REAL PROBLEM – mortgage underwriting remains irrationally tight. Smaller universe qualifies for mortgaged and a large number of contracts fall through – approx 15%.
-Telegraphing low rates through 2015 eliminates any urgency for consumers to take action. National volume up YOY but 2011 was the aftermath of 2010 tax credit so comparing against low.



Bernanke’s Speech on QE3 [MarketPlace.org]
Benanke Statement on QE3 [Federal Reserve]
QE3: What is quantitative easing? And will it help the economy? [WaPo Wonk Blog]
Fed’s Evans Says QE3 Will Make Economy More Resilient [Bloomberg]
Low Rates Not Improving Housing Market, Miller Says [Bloomberg Surveillance TV]

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[Three Cents Worth Miami #209] The Miami Vice Of Sales & Price

September 15, 2012 | 12:23 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed Miami, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the Magic City. And I’m simply here to take measurements.

Read this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedMiami:

…I’ve been on a “rotating gif” tear lately so I took a look at the ebb and flow of Miami sales and price trends since the mid-decade peak and the current market resurgence. I think people get hung up on the idea that prices represent the health of a housing market when they really are a vice. As prices continued to surge during the boom, sales fell sharply and most consumers looked the other way. I contend a recovery is all about sales activity because it leads prices – and Miami is seeing more sales activity these days…

 

[click to read column]


Curbed NY : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed DC : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed Miami : Three Cents Worth Archive

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