Matrix Blog

Archive for February, 2013

Wall Streeters Paid 7X The Private Sector

February 27, 2013 | 12:42 pm | curbed | Charts |

In case you have any doubts about the amount of compensation that the securities industry enjoys versus the private sector in NYC, I created the chart above. While the bonus comp results has been released for 2012, the salary data is not out yet so I built this chart from 1985-2011. In 2011, securities industry salaries + bonuses were 7x larger than private industry salaries.

In case you had any doubts about how important the industry is to the NYC, regional and state economy, hopefully you are now – love them or hate them.

Since Wall Street bonuses were announced yesterday and have been talked about and analyzed a lot over the past 24 hours, I thought I’d share the following video which apologizes a lot for compensation levels of the securities industry but breaks down the advantages of the bonus compensation practice on Wall Street.

I was provided with a video from OnlineMBA.com



Three Cents Worth: Have Bonus, Will Buy in Manhattan? [Curbed NY]
In Defense of the Wall Street Bonus [OnlineMBA]
NYC Securities v. Other Private Industry Compensation [Miller Samuel Charts]
Wall Street Bonuses Rose in 2012 [NYS Comptroller]

UPDATE: Bloomberg Television saw this post and made it their “Single Best Chart” of the day.

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[Three Cents Worth NY #224] Have Bonus, Will Buy in Manhattan?

February 26, 2013 | 5:16 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Since New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli graciously accommodated our Tuesday Three Cents Worth release date with his report on Wall Street Bonuses, I thought I’d try to come up with a chart that somehow correlates Wall Street cash bonus payments and the Manhattan housing market. Prices don’t correlate well with any form of Wall Street bonus data and employment trends seem to be too macro to equate with annual housing price trends…


[click to expand chart]



Today’s Post: Have Bonus, Will Buy in Manhattan? [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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NY Mag: Suggestions For Splitting The Rent

February 25, 2013 | 12:47 pm | nymaglogo | Public |


[click to open story]

For Jhoanna Robledo’s story: “Splitting the Rent, Fair and Square: Appraiser Jonathan Miller calculates how to divvy up the bill based on a typical two-bedroom, $3,200-a-month apartment.” in this week’s real estate feature piece in New York Magazine The Art of Roommating, I attempt to give some logic on how to fairly allocate the rent to 2 people sharing a 2-bedroom, 2-bath Brooklyn apartment.

Gotta love the first comment made on the web site:

…or if you’re friends you could split it evenly. just saying.



Splitting the Rent, Fair and Square [New York Magazine]

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[Three Cents Worth NY #223] Getting Pulled From Renting To Buying

February 21, 2013 | 2:05 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

I’m on vacation this week but it didn’t stop me from writing 3CW. Read this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Since there was a recent theory proposed in the Journal about why Manhattan rents are currently flat or falling (they’re not falling), I thought I’d talk about the problem with the theory. It used a multi-year generalization (2007 to 2013) and applied it to explain the last four to five months of market behavior—which doesn’t explain what happened from 2007 to 2011 or what is currently happening. In theory I get the point being made—we have a lower level of financial services jobs than we did in 2007 and therefore more lower paying jobs are being seen in the rising employment numbers—and it’s a long term concern for both rental and sales…


[click to expand chart]



Today’s Post: Getting Pulled From Renting To Buying [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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Pace of Rental Price Growth Eases In Manhattan and Brooklyn

February 15, 2013 | 4:14 pm | delogo | Charts |


[click to expand]

Douglas Elliman published their Elliman Report: Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals for January 2013 that we prepare so I thought it would be a good idea to show the slowing pace of rental price growth. These charts reflect a 90 day moving average given how choppy the percentage changes are. Both markets are seeing easing rental price growth.

Brooklyn is showing the same pattern.


[click to expand]



The Elliman Report: 1-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Douglas Elliman]
Miller Samuel Chart Gallery: Manhattan Monthly [Miller Samuel]
Miller Samuel Chart Gallery: Brooklyn Monthly [Miller Samuel]


Manhattan Diverged From NYC At US Housing Boom Peak

February 14, 2013 | 10:54 am | trdlogo | Charts |


[click to expand]

As the above chart illustrates, the aggregate median housing price in New York City, based on co-op, condo and 1-3 family property sales, with and without Manhattan sales go their separate ways circa mid-2006, at the Case-Shiller Home Price Index peak of the national housing market. This also makes the decline in the New York Case Shiller HPI all that more maddening (because it’s not Manhattan, or co-ops or condos or new development and includes Long Island, Fairfield, Westchester, Northern New Jersey and a county in Pennsylvania).

The market share for new development sales in Manhattan peaked in 2Q 06 at 57.9%. The 4Q12 market share was 12.5% but fear not, more new development is coming per The Real Deal.

During the boom through today, the shift in the mix towards Manhattan luxury property, largely from the combination of new development activity as well as vigorous Wall Street and international demand has expanded the difference between Manhattan and the rest of New York City. In other words, the gain in median sales price for NYC was caused by a shift in the mix toward higher end properties.

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Housing Data as Pop Culture

February 14, 2013 | 7:00 am | delogo | Charts |


[click to open article]

A recent post in CNN/Money featured Andy Warhol’s 1984 “U.S. Unemployment Rate. No Campbell Soup Cans but it feels strange to associate his art with economic data from the 1980s. It somehow works for me. One of the coolest property inspections I made was through “The Factory” years ago.

In 2007 the “Stand-up Economist” Yorman Bauman led the way with this much watched video on the difference between macro and micro economists. “Microeconomists are wrong about specific things while macroeconomists are wrong about things in general.” HI-larious.

And recently the TV game show “Teen Jeopardy” had 5 questions about the “Federal Reserve.”

Christie’s sales rep said:

“Economic data has become popular culture. While we used to think of it as being some kind of verified information only for people who are really knowledgeable about the economy, it’s popular culture now. You can talk to a taxi driver about it.”

I completely agree. Gangnam Style and GDP now go hand in hand.

We devour housing data ie the recently released Real Deal Data Book (I’ve got a lot of charts and tables in there!)

Throw in the heavy downloads of our report series for Douglas Elliman, NAR Research, CoreLogic, Case Shiller, RealtyTrac, etc. it’s clear to me that housing data is an obsession and embedded in popular culture (thank goodness).

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[High & Moderating] 1-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rental Report

February 13, 2013 | 10:02 am | delogo | Reports |

Douglas Elliman published the Manhattan/Brooklyn rental report for January 2013. This monthly report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994. We discontinued the quarterly rental report series but still present the information in our aggregate database.

MANHATTAN

  • Modest year-over-year rise in rents for 4th consecutive month, following a rapid 12-month rise.
  • Pace of rental price growth easing as low mortgage rates pull more buyers into sales market.
  • Days on market while at fast pace, was slowest since August 2011.
  • Limited use of landlord concessions remained norm.
  • Vacancy rates remained low, falling year-over-year for 7th consecutive month.
  • Luxury markets saw larger gains in rental prices than the overall market.

BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest Regions]

  • Rents flat from same period last year, might be beginning of a period of more modest rental price growth.
  • Studio activity slowed as more renters showed resistance to rising rents and became first time buyers.
  • Luxury rents outpaced overall market as purchase demand provided competition with higher affordability despite tight credit conditions.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

MANHATTAN …Median rental price increased 2.6% from the same period last year to $3,150. After a 12-month stretch showing a robust 7.5% average year-over-year increase, the most recent four months increased by an average of 1.6%. Average rental price rose 1.6% to $3,794 and average rental price per square foot increased 3.2% to $50.71 over the same period. In a year of limited rental concessions, the year-over-year net effective median monthly rent increased 2.6%, as did face rent…

BROOKLYN …Median rental price was $2,527 in January, showing no material change from the same month last year. Over the same period, average rental price increased 4.6% to $2,958 and average rental price per square foot rose 4.6% to $35.36…




The Elliman Report: 1-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Douglas Elliman]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Miller Samuel Chart Gallery (quarterly rental charts only – monthly coming soon) [Miller Samuel]


[In The Media] WNBC Channel 4 “Tightest Squeeze In Years” 2-11-2013

February 12, 2013 | 5:00 pm | Public |

Andrew Siff, a reporter for WNBC Channel 4 in New York did a great job articulating the tight inventory phenomenon we are seeing in both the region and nationally.



Tri-State Real Estate Market Under Tightest Squeeze in Years [WNBC Channel 4]
Listing Inventory Is, Well, Listing [Matrix]

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Listing Inventory Is, Well, Listing

February 12, 2013 | 2:38 pm | nytlogo | Charts |


[click to open article]

I’ve been talking a lot about the causes of falling inventory lately and some mortgage industry types seem to resistant to the idea that credit is keeping supply off the market, versus some sort of uniform national paralysis or sales surge (sales arent’ rising nearly as fast as inventory is falling).

Michelle Higgins at New York Times does a nice feature piece: Dear Owner: Please Sell: Faced With Apartment Shortage, Brokers Get Creative on how this shortage of inventory is changing the way brokers work to get inventory to sell.

But seriously, you’ve got to love the chart (at top) in the article – we provided ten year’s worth of monthly inventory trends to show the visual of just how low inventory has fallen. What’s amazing is the drop is happening in virtually every housing market I can think of.

Since credit is a national market and housing is local, I view this phenomenon as a byproduct of tight credit.

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