Matrix Blog

Archive for March, 2013

Money for Nothing Movie Trailer

March 28, 2013 | 5:29 pm | fedny | Videos |

I can’t wait for the documentary Money for Nothing to be released. In fact I donated to IndieGoGo.com because I was so impressed that I wanted my own copy.

This documentary is compelling and so are all the cast members. It includes a who’s who list of current and past members of the Federal Reserve as well as economists and Wall Street experts. Cast members include my friend Barry Ritholtz and Gary Shilling who both have been on my podcast. Todd Harrison of the great site Minyanville.com and John Mauldlin who I have always looked to for insights. Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer who called me at the height of the crisis to get a gauge on the Manhattan housing market.

During the housing bubble I often felt like screaming as I saw the financial world through my appraisal glasses thinking I missed an important math class in 8th grade. Fast growing banks with gigantic mortgage volume and many of my appraisal competitors in bed with mortgage brokers were clearly smarter than me – they could make the numbers work and I couldn’t.

In 2003 and 2004 I remember being absolutely confident as a non-economist that the Fed was keeping interest rates too low for too long. I could see it in the loss of lending standards and the lavish incomes enjoyed by those around me who embraced a world of based on moral flexibility. The froth was simply ignored.

Don’t mean to get sentimental on you dear readers, but this movie struck a chord with me. Enjoy the trailer and watch for the release date announcement.

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[Nathan Pyle] “NYC Basic Tips & Etiquette” as Rotating GIFS

March 26, 2013 | 1:59 pm | Books |

My friend and crazy talented artist Nathan Pyle created a series of rotating gifs that should prove useful to those who just moved to the big city.

For a bunch more, check out Nathan Pyle‘s collection.

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[Three Cents Worth NY #227] A Dozen Manhattan Housing Market Stages

March 26, 2013 | 1:26 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

After reviewing an appraisal of a Manhattan sales transaction yesterday that had more than a dozen backup offers above list price (and not the first such situation we’ve seen recently), I thought I’d keep the listing inventory discussion train rolling on 3CW. I looked at a 12-year monthly co-op and condo inventory and named the housing stage at beginning of each year. Incidentally, Manhattan inventory has collapsed 54.5 percent from peak. The monthly 12+ year co-op and condo average is 7,292….


[click to expand chart]

 


Today’s Post: A Dozen Manhattan Housing Market Stages [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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[Three Cents Worth NY #226] Manhattan Rental Market Trapped in Sales Brochure

March 19, 2013 | 11:35 am | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

With the sales market heating up following the remarkable rental market run-up last year, I thought I’d look at the market share of rental versus sales activity. I compared them by using closed sales and closed rental transactions for all of 2012. Keep in mind that I only used new rentals (not renewals), since renewal data is not generally available (and not part of any rental market studies currently published)…


[click to expand chart]



Today’s Post: Manhattan Rental Market Trapped in Sales Brochure [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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[Manhattan Absorption] February 2013 Shows Not Enough Supply To Wet A Sponge

March 18, 2013 | 1:16 pm | Charts |


[click to expand]

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

February 2013 v. February 2012


[click images to expand]

Although everything seems to be absorbed at an historically fast pace, co-ops are generally being absorbed more slowly in nearly every price segment below $5M.


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2013 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel]

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National Pi Day 3.1415926535897932384626433832795

March 14, 2013 | 4:01 pm |

I know this is tiring, but it’s March 14th, better known as National Pi Day – an important day of celebration since 1998. Incidentally the United States House of Representatives supported the designation of Pi Day in 2009 – proof that they can actually get important things done.

More importantly, I’ve learned over the years:

Pie is better than Cake.

Or as my friend told me recently:

“‘Pie in the sky’ is better than ‘cake on the ground.’”

Powerful stuff anyway you slice it (sorry).

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Speaking 3-14-13 REBNY – A Year of Recovery and Product Scarcity

March 14, 2013 | 3:10 pm | Public |

Should be fun.

They tell me it is sold out and there is a waiting list, but just in case

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[Still A Lot] 2-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rental Report

March 13, 2013 | 10:18 am | delogo | Reports |

Douglas Elliman published the Manhattan/Brooklyn rental report for February 2013. This monthly report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994. We discontinued the quarterly rental report series but still present the information in our aggregate database.

MANHATTAN

  • After 4 consecutive months of modest year-over-year gains in median rental price, February showed larger increases.
  • Days on market and listing discount weakened.
  • Vacancy rates unchanged after falling for 7 consecutive months.
  • Super-luxury market (top 5% began at $8,155) outpaced overall median rental price gains.
  • The sharp gains in the number of new rentals ended as landlords are more in sync with the market at time of lease renewal.

BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest Regions]

  • After a one month slowdown, the year-over-year rise in median rental price resumed it’s higher rate of growth.
  • Days on market contracted.
  • Larger apartments show largest rise in rental price indicators.
  • The economy slowly improving and credit remains tight, keeping upward pressure on rents.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

MANHATTAN After four consecutive months at an average of 1.6% year-over-year price gains, median rent rose 4.7% from year ago levels to $3,190. Average rental price also expanded at a similar pace, rising 4.9% from prior year levels to $3,956. The number of new rentals declined 8.8% from prior year levels, marking the first drop since July 2012, as more modest rental price growth at the end of 2012 forced landlords to be more consistent with pricing at time of lease renewal…

BROOKLYN After last month’s more modest gains, the rental market resumed robust price growth in February. Median rent increased 7.2% from the same month last year to $2,590. The other price indicators showed larger gains over the same period…




The Elliman Report: 2-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Douglas Elliman]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Brooklyn Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Quarterly) [Miller Samuel]


On Bloomberg TV, Surveillance w/Tom Keene 3-11-13: Housing, Mortgages, Rising Prices

March 11, 2013 | 11:46 am | bloomberg_news_logo | Public |

Had a great visit with Tom Keene this morning on Bloomberg TV’s Surveillance along with Scarlet Fu and Sara Eisen. It was simulcast on Bloomberg Radio.

Also in studio was James Lockhart, vice chairman of WL Ross & Co., formerly the head of GSE regulator FHFA. We were also joined by Nicolas Retsinas, a senior lecturer in real estate at Harvard Business School who called in – he has been on my old podcast a few times. Both provided great insight to the housing narrative.

Here’s the second clip from the same session. My basic premise is that while new home sales are rising, it will not be enough to address the collapse of listing inventory which will drive housing prices higher in the US. Hint: It’s mostly about tight credit. Housing is local and credit is national.

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[Three Cents Worth NY #225] Manhattan’s Inventory Skyfall

March 5, 2013 | 11:44 am | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

One of the biggest housing market complaints these days pertains to the lack of inventory, both existing and new development. Many would assume the complaining is only coming from buyers and real estate agents and not from would-be sellers. Of course, for those who are selling it should be a good time since the competition is limited, right?…


[click to expand chart]



Today’s Post: Manhattan’s Inventory Skyfall [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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