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Archive for April, 2013

Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Market Indices on Bloomberg Terminals [1Q 13]

April 28, 2013 | 7:08 pm | bloomberglogo | Charts |

A while ago Bloomberg created three luxury housing indices using our Manhattan historical data for their terminal subscribers. Kinda cool. For all the high end housing market hype, the upper end has remained fairly stable for several years. That may change a bit going forward (higher).

Here are the latest:

MLH SQFT Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Price Per Square Foot)

[click to expand]

MLH MED Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Median Sales Price)

[click to expand]

MLH AVG Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Average Sales Price)

[click to expand]

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[Three Cents Worth NY #229] $3,000 is the new $1,500 in Manhattan

April 23, 2013 | 11:45 am | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out today’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Given all the hype about new development product entering the listing-starved Manhattan market over the next couple of years, I thought I’d take a look at the market share of co-ops and condos over the last decade (the boom and bust era), but in a different way. For the uninitiated, Manhattan co-op housing units outnumber condo units 3:1 (i.e. 75 percent v. 25 percent market share)…


[click to expand chart]

 


Today’s Post: Three Cents Worth: $3,000 is the new $1,500 in Manhattan [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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[Three Cents Worth NY #228] Manhattan Inventory on a Slippery Slope

April 23, 2013 | 11:35 am | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out last week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

It’s no secret that the lack of supply has turned the housing market inside out right now. We are seeing multiple bids on a larger portion of the sales and no immediate relief in sight. I took a look at inventory trends over the past five years to explore how we got here. I separated out the market by re-sale and new development to explore the differences…


[click to expand chart]

 


Today’s Post: Manhattan Inventory on a Slippery Slope [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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[Stability With Less] 1Q 2013 Queens Report

April 11, 2013 | 3:10 pm | delogo | Reports |

Douglas Elliman just published the market report on the Queens sales market that we author. This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Listing inventory fell to 8-year low.
  • Release of pent-up demand as number of sales increased despite low supply.
  • Prices showed modest gains.
  • Low mortgage rates continue to play important role in demand.



Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The key market characteristic of the Queens housing market in the first quarter was the scarcity of supply. This condition kept housing prices stable and combined with record low mortgage rates, brought buyers and sellers close together when negotiating price. Price indicators showed across the board gains from the same period last year. Median sales price edged 1.1% higher to $350,000 from the same period last year and average sales price increased 1.5% to $389,420 over the same period. There were 6,496 listings at the end of the first quarter, an 8-year record and 26.6% less than in the same period last year…

Our Queens data tables are now updated for 1Q13 and charts will be available soon.




The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Queens Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Queens Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Tight] 1Q 2013 Brooklyn Report

April 11, 2013 | 2:29 pm | delogo | Reports |

We recently published our report on the Brooklyn sales market. This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Lowest inventory levels recorded in 5 years.
  • Sales below year ago levels as lack of inventory impairing sales volume.
  • Prices are up as supply limitations keep pressure on market.
  • More bidding wars.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The Brooklyn housing market began 2013 with rising prices, chronically low inventory and sales restrained from the lack of supply. Several records were set in the first quarter: lowest inventory and listing discount in the 5-years they have been tracked, highest median sales price since Lehman fell and the sharpest year-over-year decline in inventory. Average sales price registered a similar year-over-year gain of 12.3% to $634,594 in the first quarter, a new record. New development trends, often a function of what is made available to the market at any given time, showed a larger gain in median sales price than the re-sale market from the same period last year…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 1Q 13 data. Charts updated with 1Q13 data will be online shortly.




The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Brooklyn Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Brooklyn Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

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[Not Pretty Vacant] 3-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rental Report

April 11, 2013 | 11:44 am | delogo | Reports |

Douglas Elliman JUST published their Manhattan/Brooklyn rental report. This monthly report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994. We discontinued the quarterly rental report series but still present the information in our aggregate database.

MANHATTAN

  • Rental price growth has accelerated since the beginning of the year.
  • Vacancy rate fell to a 2 year low.
  • Rise in rents has been consistent across all apt sizes.
  • Mortgage credit remains tight, employment rising, keeping upward pressure on rents.

BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest Regions]

  • Rental price growth accelerating over the last two months.
  • Smaller apartments saw larger increases in rental price and the number of new rentals.
    -Luxury market saw weaker price gains than overall market.
  • Rise in new rental activity more modest than in recent months, sign of rising frequency of renewals.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

MANHATTAN…For the past three months, median rent has increased yearover- year. The percentage changes for January, February and March 2013 were 2.6%, 4.7% and 6.7% after bottoming at 0.8% in December of 2012. The March 2013 increase of 6.7% exceeded the 5.1% year-over-year increase in March 2012…

BROOKLYN…After posting no growth in median rental price in January 2013, rents resumed rising with a 7.2% gain in February, followed by an 11.3% increase in March. Average rental price and average rental price per square foot both rose by 11.5% in March over the same period last year…




The Elliman Report: 3-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Douglas Elliman]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Brooklyn Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Quarterly) [Miller Samuel]


[Inventory, Contracts] 1Q 2013 Westchester & Putnam Report

April 11, 2013 | 11:27 am | delogo | Reports |

We just published our report on the Westchester & Putnam County New York housing markets.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

WESTCHESTER

  • Listing inventory fell to lowest first quarter total in four years.
  • Current supply is just below the 10-year average.
  • While sales are up, contract volume surged above year ago levels.
  • Overall price indicators were mixed indicating stability.

PUTNAM

  • Listing inventory declined as sales edged higher
  • Housing prices edged higher.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The first quarter of 2013 was defined by falling listing inventory and a significant rise in contract activity. Despite the faster pace of the market, price indicators showed stability compared to the same period last year. However, the overall market is expected to see more upward price pressure if the pace of falling supply and rising sales activity continues. The number of closed sales in the first quarter of 2013 showed only a modest gain of 5.6% to 1,348 compared to the same period last year. However, the total number of contracts surged 27% over the same period representing a significant acceleration in the pace of the market since the end of 2012. Listing inventory continued to fall sharply, down 17.5% to 5,587 from the first quarter of 2012, the lowest first quarter total in four years…

You can build your own custom data tables on the Westchester & Putnam market – now updated with 1Q 13 data. I’ll be posting the updated charts soon.




The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Douglas Elliman]


[Manhattan Absorption] March 2013 – What a Difference a Year Makes

April 7, 2013 | 11:10 am | Charts |


[click to expand]

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

March 2013 v. March 2012


[click images to expand]

In sub-$3M the market pace is moving twice as fast as the 10-year average and also faster than the $3M+ markets. Especially note the acceleration below $1M in the side by side comparison to 2012 above.


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2013 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel]

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Interview on CCTV America, State of Fannie Mae

April 4, 2013 | 7:25 am | bloomberglogo | Videos |


[click to play - starts at 13:50]

I spoke with Michelle Makori on the state of Fannie Mae (who just reported a record profit). CCTV America is part of China Central Television (CCTV), the largest television broadcaster in China.

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Yahoo! Finance Daily Ticker Interview on Housing Market, Millennials and Fogging a Mirror

April 3, 2013 | 10:43 am | Videos |


[click for video]

I was interviewed on the Daily Ticker by Yahoo! Finance’s very sharp Lauren Lyster on a USAToday story that Millennials now entering the housing market. Basically I agree but we are very early in the process. Household formation has been restrained since the financial crisis began 5 years ago but rising rents and falling mortgage rates are perhaps forcing the issue.

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