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Archive for May, 2013

BBC TV On Brooklyn’s Soaring Market

May 29, 2013 | 2:16 pm | Videos |


[click to play]

The word “bubble” is returning to the real estate conversation. Here’s a BBC clip on the rapid rebound in the Brooklyn housing market.

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Talking Case Shiller on Bloomberg TV’s ‘Street Smart” with Betty Liu/Adam Johnson

May 29, 2013 | 11:57 am | bloomberg_news_logo | Public |

Yesterday’s release of the Case Shiller Index prompted a flurry of coverage given the 20-cities’ highest YoY increase in 7-years. I did a three way split interview from a remote location in CT (see studio set up below). I was a guest along with Vincent Reinhart, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley and Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow Inc. Betty Liu and Adam Johnson kept the conversation going.

I especially liked Stan’s modification of the Case Shiller Index results which excluded foreclosures and his research on low and negative equity (my explanation for low inventory right now). The drop in foreclosure activity over the past year caused significant skew to the mix. According to Stan the index would show roughly a 5% increase YoY rather than an 10.9% increase. A huge difference and yet another reason why this index does more harm than good to our understanding of the housing market.

Vincent’s observation that seasonality is considered in Case Shiller is basically wrong – not technically wrong because the data is seasonally adjusted. However the methodology of a repeat sales index washes out seasonality. If you look at the Case Shiller chart, there hasn’t been “seasons” in housing since 1987. That’s simply not true. The Case Shiller Index does not reflect annual housing cycles.

Since Case Shiller Index lags the signing of contracts by 5-7 months, expect to see much higher YoY results this summer.

How the sausage is made

Bloomberg TV is always great to work with – they arranged for me to use a remote studio in CT through a third party. Here is what the studio looks like. Amazingly primitive but it works!

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[Three Cents Worth NY #232] The Manhattan GRM Is Too Damn High

May 29, 2013 | 10:19 am | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Not a very original title, but after realizing the long weekend was unfairly ending after only three days, I took a look at the relationship between sales prices and rental prices through the “gross rent multiplier” aka GRM. I presented the relationship between median sales price and annualized median rental price since 1991 as a ratio…

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Today’s Post: Three Cents Worth: The Manhattan GRM Is Too Damn High [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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[Three Cents Worth NY #231] Manhattan Sales, Rentals Not Opposites

May 15, 2013 | 1:13 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out today’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

I thought I’d take a look at price growth between the Manhattan rental market and sales market over the past decade. I am struck by how many of us have the default view that these two markets always move in opposite directions, myself included. In other words, if rental prices are rising, sales prices must be falling and vice versa. I trended the year-over-year change in median rental price and median sales price over the decade. I also inserted significant US housing milestones along the way but left out the ’13 launch of Iron Man 3…


[click to expand chart]

 


Today’s Post: Three Cents Worth: Manhattan Sales, Rentals Not Opposites [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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[No Fiscal Cliff Hangover] 1Q 2013 Hamptons & North Fork Reports

May 13, 2013 | 10:02 am | delogo | Reports |

[click to open reports]

We recently released the market reports we prepare for Douglas Elliman covering the The Hamptons and North Fork.

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

HAMPTONS 1Q 2013

  • Listing inventory continued to fall.
  • Number of sales surged.
  • Number of sales in excess of $5M dropped as many high end buyers rushed to close at the end of 2012.
  • Limited supply beginning to apply upward pressure to stable markets.
  • Credit remains tight, restraining supply from entering market, no urgency to list.
  • Record low mortgage rates and release of pent-up demand keeping demand strong.
  • Less high end sales as tax-incentivized buyers rushed to close at the end of 2012.

NORTH FORK 1Q 2013

  • Housing prices up in all segments except for top quintile due to tax-incentivized rush at end of 2012.
  • Number of sales fell and listings rose.
  • Days on market expanded.


Here’s an excerpt from the 1Q 2013 report:

HAMPTONS…After an unprecedented year end surge in high end closings motivated by tax planning purposes, the first quarter Hamptons housing market saw an unusually low level of high end sales despite a year-over-year increase in total sales. As a result, the price indicators reflected declines, when in fact the housing market was not experiencing falling prices…

NORTH FORK…Sales activity in the first quarter of the North Fork housing market was somewhat weaker than the same period a year ago as the prior quarter “poached” some activity at the close of 2012. Price indicators were generally higher, but sales were lower and inventory was above prior year levels…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 1Q 13. While we haven’t built separate chart galleries for each market yet, you can browse our chart library.




The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Hamptons Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 North Fork Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Hamptons Sales [Douglas Elliman]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 North Fork Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Defined by Low Supply] 1Q 2013 Long Island Sales Report

May 13, 2013 | 9:34 am | delogo | Reports |

We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 1Q 2013.

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

1Q 2013

  • Lowest first quarter listing total in a decade.
  • Signed contract volume jumped from year ago levels.
  • Housing prices remained generally stable, indicators mixed.
  • Limited supply beginning to apply upward pressure to stable markets.
  • Credit remains tight, restraining supply from entering market, no urgency to list.
  • Record low mortgage rates and release of pent-up demand keeping demand strong.
  • Less high end sales as tax-incentivized buyers rushed to close at the end of 2012.


Here’s an excerpt from the 1Q 2013 report:

…The lack of supply and rise of contract activity continued to define the Long Island housing market. Listing inventory fell to the lowest first quarter level seen in a decade as pending sales continued to rise. Despite the tightening of the market, overall price indicators remained mixed. The number of listings in inventory at the end of the first quarter fell 24.8% to 15,303 as compared to the same period last year, a ten year first quarter low…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 1Q 13 data. Check out the charts by browsing in our chart library.




The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Long Island Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


1Q 2013 South Florida Housing Market Reports Gone Wild

May 13, 2013 | 9:20 am | delogo | Reports |


[click images to open each market report]

We recently completed the 1Q 2013 South Florida market report series for Douglas Elliman. These markets include Miami, Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach.


Bloomberg Surveillence TV with Tom Keene, Sara Eisen and Adam Davidson

May 13, 2013 | 8:46 am | bloomberg_news_logo | Public |

Had a fun interview with Tom and Sara this morning on the always MUST watch/listen Bloomberg Surveillance. We talked housing, rentals, vacancy and inventory. An added bonus was the addition of Adam Davidson – co-founder and co-host of Planet Money as guest anchor. I’m a huge fan of his show. Even bought their t-shirt last week through Kickstarter.

More importantly, I’m still the mayor of the Bloomberg Cafeteria on FourSquare.

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[More Upside] 4-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rental Report

May 12, 2013 | 2:40 pm | delogo | Reports |

Douglas Elliman JUST published their Manhattan/Brooklyn rental report. This monthly report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994. We discontinued the quarterly rental report series but still present the information in our aggregate database.

MANHATTAN

  • Rents continue to press higher. 2013 annual growth on par with 2012.
  • Rate of rental price growth consistent across all unit sizes.
  • Limited use of landlord concessions remain.
  • Vacancy rate below 5-year average, same as year ago.
  • Stabilizing number of new rentals suggest more balance between landlords and existing tenants.

BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest Regions]

  • After a fast start in 2013, rental price growth slowed – not clear if a trend.
  • Declining days on market in new year reflects quick pace.
  • Number of new rentals continued to slow.
  • Tight mortgage lending conditions keeping pressure on rental market.
  • Slow improvement in regional economy keeping rents rising despite record low mortgage rates.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

MANHATTAN…Median rental price jumped 6.5% to $3,195 from the same period last year, but was unchanged from the prior month. The average year-over-year increase in median rental price has been rising since the beginning of 2013 averaging 5.1% year to date. The average rate of rental price growth is consistent with the 2012 average rate of 5.3%. The year-over-year increase in median rental price across all size categories was remarkably consistent in April…

BROOKLYN…The number of new rentals increased 10.9% above prior year levels, the third lowest annual increase in a year. This metric can be seen as a barometer of tenant resistance to lease renewal rates offered by landlords. Lower new rental growth reflects more tenants re-signing their leases at renewal. After an aggressive series of rental price increases in 2012, landlords have been easing rate increases and tenants have better adjusted to the high rent environment…




The Elliman Report: 4-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Douglas Elliman]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Brooklyn Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Quarterly) [Miller Samuel]


[Three Cents Worth NY #230] Manhattan Sales Wave More of a Bell Curve

May 12, 2013 | 1:09 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out today’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Since Manhattan sales are fairly heavy right now—basically we’re at High Noon of the annual housing market cycle—I wanted to look at how important spring is to the market and explore how housing sales patterns have changed over the past few decades. I plotted the sales market share for each quarter and separated them into their own charts. For example: 2Q 2012 (last year’s spring market) had sales that represented 25.2 percent of all sales for 2012. I then applied a trend line to each quarter to cut through the volatility. The four quarters (sort of) correlate with the four seasons…


[click to expand chart]

 


Today’s Post: Three Cents Worth: Manhattan Sales Wave More of a Bell Curve [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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