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Archive for June, 2013

[VIDEO] Housing Recovery + Rising Rates with Christine Romans on CNN’s Your Money 6-30-13

June 30, 2013 | 9:38 pm | Public |


[click to play]

On Friday I taped an interview with Christine Romans, host of CNN’s Your Money on the housing recovery and why rising mortgage rates aren’t necessarily a bad thing. She’s a very engaging interviewer – plus it’s always fun to visit the studio.

This clip captures a large part of the interview – there were three more Q&A volleys on the televised broadcast omitted in this clip – they’ll be airing them in other segments.

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[Three Cents Worth NY #235] Manhattan Regional Sales in 3D

June 18, 2013 | 5:47 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

As much as I dislike 3D charts and don’t want Curbed readers to wear 3D glasses smeared with greasy popcorn butter, I thought I’d use them on a simple topic. For each quarterly market report release, I group Manhattan into four distinct geographic regions and measure the market share of their sales during each quarter. This chart shows the market share of each region based on sales activity by region…


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My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan Regional Sales in 3D [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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[Three Cents Worth NY #234] Manhattan’s Stormy Listing Trend

June 12, 2013 | 3:50 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

This week I took a look at Manhattan’s year-over-year listing trends by the number of bedrooms on a weekly basis. I threw in a few milestones using ridiculous artwork (hey, this is Curbed!) to help provide some context. To state the obvious, listing inventory is very volatile and there are periods of time where certain segments stray from the pack. It’s clear that the top end of the market (four bedrooms, pink line) strayed the most over the past few years as many owners tried to piggyback onto a handful of trophy sales…


[click to expand chart]

 


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan’s Stormy Listing Trend [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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[Strong, But Mixed Messages] 5-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rental Report

June 12, 2013 | 3:05 pm | delogo | Reports |

Douglas Elliman JUST published their Manhattan/Brooklyn rental report. This monthly report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994. We discontinued the quarterly rental report series but still present the information in our aggregate database.

MANHATTAN

  • Improving economy and tight credit keeping pressure on rental prices.
  • Median rent continued to rise, was 3.5% above year ago levels.
  • Nearly 2 years since rents began to rise again, averaging a 5% annualized pace since.
  • New rentals fell as less “tenant churn” reflected more agreement between landlord and tenants at lease renewal.
  • Vacancy rate down sharply to 1.60% from year ago rate of 2.51%.
  • Only 4.4% of rental activity had some form of landlord concession.

BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest Regions]

  • Median rental price declined 3% YoY, second consecutive month of weaker rental prices from March peak.
  • Despite rental rate volatility, rents trending upward since late 2010, using 90-day moving average.
  • Days on market showed nominal 2 day increase to 44 days from a year ago.
  • Number of new rentals jumped 23.5% after trending lower since beginning of year.
  • Studio and 1-bedroom rental market share fell 2.2% as low mortgage rates pulled tenants into sales market.
  • After 2 years of growth, annual pace of rental price growth show some signs of easing.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

MANHATTAN The year-overyear increase in median monthly rents have pressed higher since July 2011, averaging a 5% annual pace. The Manhattan median monthly rent was $3,200, up 3.5% from the same period last year. Average rent expanded at a similar pace, rising 3.2% to $3,951, just shy of the $4,000 threshold and the 7th highest monthly level in 60 months. The occurrence of rental concessions remained limited, with only 4.4% of all new rentals having some form applied. When concessions were used, they were the equivalent of 1.2 months rent…

BROOKLYN The Brooklyn median rent slipped 3% to $2,579 from the same period last year. After reaching a year-to-date 2013 peak rate increase of 11.3% in March and a 1% rate increase in April, the rate decreased in May to the lowest level of the year. Rental price growth has remained volatile monthto- month, but when using a 90-day moving average, rent growth has been maintained since late 2010…




The Elliman Report: 5-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 5-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Douglas Elliman]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Brooklyn Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Quarterly) [Miller Samuel]


[Manhattan Absorption] May 2013 – Fast Pace Below $2M Remains, Slowing On Top

June 6, 2013 | 7:00 am | Charts |


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Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

May 2013 v. May 2012

[click images to expand]

Significant acceleration in the pace of the market below $2M, not much change from $3M to $10M and continued slow down north of $10M


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2013 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel]

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Manhattan Inventory Trend Remains Flat as a Pancake in 2013

June 5, 2013 | 12:27 pm | Charts |


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There has been remarkably little YTD improvement of available co-op/condo supply in Manhattan. This chart reflects co-op, condo and townhouse supply (existing + new dev).

While we are now seeing a little more inventory enter the market, sales are outpacing prior year levels erasing any meaningful gains in supply. This chart illustrates how flat supply has remained in 2013.

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[Three Cents Worth NY #233] I’ll Take (Manhattan) “Combo” Apartment

June 5, 2013 | 12:15 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

With inventory hovering around record lows, we’ve started to observe more sales of combined apartments. Combined apartments (i.e. connecting two or more adjacent apartments) tend to have inferior layouts than their equivalent-sized counterparts that were originally designed by the building architect. We are seeing more “combo” sales now and are also performing more hallway appraisals as of late (where apartment owners acquire the end of a hallway to enhance the layout of combined apartments)…

[click to expand chart]

 


Today’s Post: Three Cents Worth: I’ll Take (Manhattan) “Combo” Apartment [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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Manhattan’s Electric Kool-Aid Penthouse Test

June 5, 2013 | 10:23 am | Charts |


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Tom Wolfe’s “Bonfire of the Vanities” gave me the phrase “master of the universe” which I can liberally use when (respectfully) describing the penthouse apartment demographic, but his earlier book cover better matched the chart colors – hence the title.

But I digress…

I got a call by a reporter who thought there was an uptick in Manhattan penthouse sales. So I looked at the market from January 2012 by month for frequency and price trends. Penthouse sales represent a very specific and small market niche with a huge disparity in characteristics.

I found 329 penthouse sales out of a pool of 14,612 sales over the past 14 months. I tagged any sale with a “PH or some abbreviation of the word “penthouse” in the label. Yes there are penthouses that aren’t necessarily tagged as such, but that occurance would be random and not likely a factor. That’s a 2.3% market share for penthouse sales which seems to correlate to the housing stock i.e. 100 unit building with 2 penthouses.

Although a 2.3% market share seems a tad high to me, no real trend or pattern emerged. I did observe that the average sales price of a Manhattan penthouse was $4,249,323 since early 2012 or 3.1x higher than the overall average sales price of $1,354,766 in 1Q 2013.

I can’t let a bunch of research time go to waste so I whipped up a chart that shows…nothing.

Conclusion: No uptick. (ie No Kool-aid.)

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