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Archive for July, 2013

[Three Cents Worth NY #239] 13 Thousand Little (Manhattan) Closings

July 30, 2013 | 4:45 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

It’s been quite a 12-month window on the Manhattan market and since I am going on a beach-related vacation tomorrow, I thought I’d get granular like sand (sorry). I took a look at the past year’s worth of co-op, condo and townhouse closings to view the impact of Hurricane Sandy and the Fiscal Cliff on closing patterns, throwing in holidays for good measure…

[click to expand chart]

 


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: 13 Thousand Little (Manhattan) Closings [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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[Three Cents Worth NY #238] New Developments Cross Luxury Threshold

July 26, 2013 | 11:17 am | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Mortgage rates are rising and that’s probably a good long-term thing for the housing market in NYC and nationwide. One of the biggest misunderstandings about the market is the correlation between mortgage interest rate and price trends—sometimes I’ll get caught up in it myself. The logic follows that rising mortgage rates will leave less room for principal in the monthly housing payment and then prices fall. Makes sense logically if you don’t factor in access to credit. In the short term, changes in mortgage rates may have some knee jerk impact on prices—we often see demand surges with sudden rate changes—but over the long term it’s hard to pin down the cause and effect relationship between rates and prices using actual data. It’s never been successfully correlated to my knowledge…


[click to expand chart]

 


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: New Developments Cross Luxury Threshold [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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[Sales Surged] 2Q 2013 Hamptons Sales Report

July 26, 2013 | 11:05 am | delogo | Reports |

Douglas Elliman published the market report we prepared on the Hamptons sales market for 2Q 2013.

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Highest number of second quarter sales since 2006.
  • Listing inventory continued to fall.
  • Second highest median sales price in 5 years.
  • Sales above $5M slipped, but overall gain in sales above $1M expanded.
  • Despite jump in sales, would likely have been more without 2012 year end “fiscal cliff” rush.

Here’s an excerpt from the 2Q 2013 report:

…Like the prior quarter, there were fewer highend transactions, fallout from the year-end rush to close before the expiration of the “fiscal cliff” deadline for tax planning purposes. Although the number of sales at or above $5M fell by 13.2% to 33, the number of sales over $1M actually expanded by 4% to 44.7% over the same period reflecting a more active “trade-up” or upper middle market than last year. As a result of this skew, the overall average sales price fell by 1.6% to $1,696,879, yet the median sales price increased 8.2% to $920,000, the second highest median sales price in 5 years, second only to $937,500 reached in the second quarter two years ago…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 13 data. Check out the charts by browsing in our chart library.


The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Hamptons Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Hamptons Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Prices Up] 2Q 2013 North Fork Sales Report

July 26, 2013 | 10:53 am | delogo | Reports |

Douglas Elliman published the report we author on the North Fork sales market for 2Q 2013.

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Housing prices were up across all segments.
  • Inventory fell from year ago levels as marketing time dropped.
  • Number of sales up sharply.
  • Credit remained tight keeping inventory low.

Here’s an excerpt from the 2Q 2013 report:

…In the second quarter of 2013, the North Fork housing market was characterized by rising sales and prices along with falling inventory. Many buyers have entered the market due to the combination of the following factors: tight credit, low inventory, the release of pent-up demand after the last year’s market uncertainty caused by the fiscal cliff, and anticipated rise of mortgage rates, due to the improved economy. Both price indicators were higher than the prior year levels. Median sales price was $459,750, up 10.8% and the average sales price rose 4% to $679,720…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 13 data. Check out the charts by browsing in our chart library.


The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 North Fork Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 North Fork Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Fast Pace] 2Q 2013 Long Island Sales Report

July 26, 2013 | 10:39 am | delogo | Reports |

We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 2Q 2013.

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Fastest market pace since 2005 with absorption rate at 9.3 months.
  • Inventory fell sharply as closed sales and pending sales jumped.
  • Housing prices edged higher.
  • Tight credit continued to keep inventory off market.
  • Concern about rising mortgage rates pushed more buyers into the market.

Here’s an excerpt from the 2Q 2013 report:

…Although the pace of the Long Island market has been accelerating with more sales and less supply, prices continue to see only modest gains from the prior year levels. There were 16,300 listings in total inventory at the end of the second quarter, 17.5% less than in the same period last year. However, new inventory added to the market expanded by 8.7% to 12,292 over the same period, possibly providing some relief to homebuyers in the coming quarters…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 13 data. Check out the charts by browsing in our chart library.


The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Long Island Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

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Reporting from South Florida 2Q13: Miami, Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach

July 18, 2013 | 5:05 pm | delogo | Reports |

Today Douglas Elliman published four 2Q 2013 South Florida market reports we prepare that include Miami, Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach.


[Up + Less Distressed] 2Q 2013 Miami Report

July 18, 2013 | 2:58 pm | delogo | Reports |

We just published our report on the Miami Coastal Community housing markets. This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Inventory fell to 8-year low.
  • Jump in both number of sales and signed contracts.
  • Housing prices rose above year ago level.
  • Median sales price rose to highest level for second quarter in 8 years.
  • Credit remains tight keeping inventory low.
  • Heavy contract momentum carrying into next quarter.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

The overall number of sales rose by 15.4% to 6,416 to the highest total since we began tracking this metric in 2006. The market share for non-distressed sales comprised 67.2% of all market sales, up from 46.6% in the same quarter three years ago…There were 9,490 listings at the end of the second quarter, 18.8% less than in the prior year quarter. Distressed inventory fell by 44.1% and non-distressed inventory was down by 12% over the same period…

You can build your own custom data tables for Miami as well as view charts on the Miami market, all updated with 2Q13 data.




The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Miami Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Miami Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]
Miami Market Charts [Miller Samuel]


Appearing on New York Times’ Page One NEVER Gets Old…But It’s A Process

July 14, 2013 | 4:22 pm | delogo | Charts |

This morning I noticed a quote I had made in an earlier piece this week was one of two quotes selected for “The Chatter” on page 2 of the NYT SundayBusiness section.

“No supply means frenzy, and it means prices rise.”

Forgive this exercise in narcissism but I learned a few things from the process.

Today’s quote mention gave me pause and since I’m midway through our quarterly market report gauntlet I thought I’d take a quick moment to comment on the thrill I experienced this past Tuesday contributing to Liz Harris’ cover story on housing market inventory (lack thereof). It was titled Words to Start a Stampede: New York Apartment for Sale. Liz writes an excellent weekly column with clearly the best title in all of journalism: The Appraisal.

On Tuesday (7/2) I was initially contacted for the piece, beginning a weeklong period of handwringing. At that time I was told it would run on Saturday’s cover (7/6) which seemed like a long time away. However the topic is evergreen (not time sensitive to the day) so it was likely “on the bubble” (pun sort of intended) if any last minute breaking news appeared.

On Friday afternoon (7/5) I learned that Saturday was pushed to Sunday to make room for the crisis in Egypt.

Late Saturday (7/6) evening I learned that Sunday was pushed to Monday to make room for the plane crash at SFO airport.

Late Sunday (7/7) evening I was told that Monday was pulled because former NY governor Eliot Spitzer announced his candidacy for NYC Comptroller and no word on whether it would appear in Tuesday’s edition.

On Monday (7/8) I was clearly hoping for a slow news day so the piece wouldn’t get bumped a fourth time so every news alert required my attention. By the time Monday afternoon rolled around, the article suddenly appeared online so I became confident it would never make the cover – but no page number was assigned to a print page.

The online article appeared on the NYT “Most Popular” page, reaching 13th place quickly soon after it was posted and rapidly ascended to number 4, finally surpassing the very popular article about stool.

I assume this was a way for the NYT to test via crowd sourcing how relevant this story was to deserve a spot on page one. The online article jumped to 2nd place, then 1st on the most emailed list so I began to feel confident that this was the feedback the editors needed. …and we were still ahead of the stool article.

Late on Monday evening the online article was appended by the following notation at the bottom of the page:

“A version of this article appeared in print on July 9, 2013, on page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: Words to Start a Stampede: New York Apartment for Sale.”

My company and I were both officially sourced (as well as Douglas Elliman for whom I write my report series) on A1 for the 12th time since 2000 (about .9/year).

On Tuesday morning (7/9) my parents texted me at 6:08am to say they saw the printed version in their town drug store. The article actually made both the NY Metro edition and the US edition so I could share the fun with my relatives outside the NYC area, where social norms are a lot less obsessive about real estate.

Ok, back to work.

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[Three Cents Worth NY #237] Manhattan Prices ‘n Rates Don’t Jibe

July 11, 2013 | 10:45 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Mortgage rates are rising and that’s probably a good long-term thing for the housing market in NYC and nationwide. One of the biggest misunderstandings about the market is the correlation between mortgage interest rate and price trends—sometimes I’ll get caught up in it myself. The logic follows that rising mortgage rates will leave less room for principal in the monthly housing payment and then prices fall. Makes sense logically if you don’t factor in access to credit. In the short term, changes in mortgage rates may have some knee jerk impact on prices—we often see demand surges with sudden rate changes—but over the long term it’s hard to pin down the cause and effect relationship between rates and prices using actual data. It’s never been successfully correlated to my knowledge…


[click to expand chart]

 


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan Prices ‘n Rates Don’t Jibe [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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[Three Cents Worth NY #236] Manhattan Paying and Overpaying

July 11, 2013 | 10:38 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Better late than never…Check out my 3CW column from 2 weeks ago on @CurbedNY:

This week—as many who follow the market leave for the holiday fireworks to take a break from the market fireworks—I thought I’d take a look at the percentage of buyers who are paying full price and above list price. The list price used here was the asking price in place at the time of the contract, not the original list price. I’ve been tracking this since the market peak and I went back and updated the historical with additional data I’ve collected…


[click to expand chart]

 


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan Paying and Overpaying [Curbed] Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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