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Archive for October, 2013

[Three Cents Worth #249 Miami] The Miami Housing Trend Breakdown

October 28, 2013 | 7:56 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed Miami, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the Magic City. And I’m simply here to observe.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedMiami:

Miami has become a market with a lot of moving parts so it’s best not to throw all the data into one bucket and call it a day. Last week Douglas Elliman released the 4 South Florida market reports I author for them including Miami and this week’s charts were taken from data compiled in the report. I presented a bunch of metrics in the single family and condo market broken out by the distressed and non-distressed markets. Distressed property are defined here as short sales and foreclosures…

[click to expand chart]

 


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: The Miami Housing Trend Breakdown [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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NAR Pending Home Sale Index Sort of Goes Negative

October 28, 2013 | 7:31 pm | nytlogo | Charts |


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According the National Association of Realtors, their Pending Home Sales Index fell 5.6% from August to September 2013 (seasonally adjusted), the largest monthly drop since May 2010 after the artificial prop of the 2009-2010 federal homebuyers tax credit expiration caused contracts to drop by nearly 1/3 from bloated levels.

Removing seasonality from the results makes the year-over-year adjustment show nominally 1.1% higher contract volume from September 2013 than in 2012 rather than a 1.2% decline. Still, the results were weak.

Why did pending sales post weaker results?

  • Don’t blame the partial government shutdown – that came later.
  • After the May 2013 Fed surprise announcement, fence sitters surged to the market to lock in before mortgage rates rose further, bloating contract volume over the summer (and why month-over-month seasonal adjustments to this data are so very misleading).
  • The surge in summer sales “poached” from future organic volume that we would have seen in September so we were already expecting a slow down in volume. Didn’t we learn in 2010 what happens when unusual circumstances press volume sharply higher only to see volume fall sharply when that circumstance disappears?

Weaker conditions prevail, but its really not as bad a report result as being discussed – namely because the seasonal adjustments paint a weaker picture than what actually happened, and we expected a decline in activity because the prior several months were artificially pushed higher with so many more buyers rushing to the market to beat rising rates (or the perception of rising rates).

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[Public Speaking] Miami Condo Market Symposium 10-29-13

October 27, 2013 | 9:32 pm | delogo | Public |

I’m headed to Miami this week to speak at the Urban Land Institute’s Miami Condo Market Symposium: Embracing Boom & Bust Cycles. Based on the speaker list, it promises to be an informative event.


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3Q 2013 Market Report Gauntlet Comes to a Close

October 26, 2013 | 5:15 pm | delogo | Reports |

This week marked the end of what I call the “quarterly gauntlet” market report releases that I author for Douglas Elliman. If you’re interested, we’ve analyzed a bunch of markets:

NYC Metro Area
- Manhattan Sales
- Manhattan & Brooklyn Rentals
- Brooklyn Sales
- Queens Sales
- Westchester/Putnam Sales
- Long Island Sales
- Hamptons Sales
- North Fork Sales

South Florida
- Miami Sales
- Boca Raton Sales
- Fort Lauderdale Sales
- Palm Beach Sales

I’ve been writing this expanding report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994. You can also build custom data tables on information included in the reports using our aggregate database and a growing library of market charts.


[Long List of Records] 3Q 2013 Manhattan Sales Report

October 4, 2013 | 10:32 am | delogo | Reports |

We published our report on Manhattan market sales for 3Q 2013 this week.   I’ve been writing this series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

My Take

  • Inventory continues to challenge the market, falling to the lowest level since we began tracking it more than 13 years ago.
  • Sales surged as fence-sitters rushed in to buy before mortgage rates rose any further, causing the largest market share of co-op sales (62%) in 9-years.
  • Sales rose to second highest level in 24 years, the highest since 2007.
  • While overall median sales price slipped 2%, it was only due to a shift in mix to smaller sales. Both co-op and condo median sales prices increased year-over-year.
  • The 1-bedroom market share of sales reached a 15-year high.
  • The combination of surging sales and falling inventory resulted in fastest absorption rate (market pace) on record at 3.6 months.
  • The market share of new development closings fell to decade low of 6.2% as finished product continues to be scarce, but the rise in new development activity should reverse this trend in 2014.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

The third quarter was a period of records and near records in the Manhattan residential apartment market. There were 3,837 sales in the third quarter, 30% higher than the prior year quarter and the second highest total in more than 24 years. The sharp gains in the number of sales likely reflects a release of pent-up demand accumulated over the past several years combined with the concern over rising mortgage rates. The highest level of sales reached was 3,939 in the second quarter of 2007, just over a year before the Lehman tipping point and onset of the global credit crunch in late 2008. Listing inventory also reached a new record by falling 21.9% to 4,567, the lowest level reached since this metric was tracked in 2000…


The charts will be updated shortly but the data tables are already updated to include 3Q 2013.

Here is some of the press coverage for the report.


The Elliman Report: 3Q 2013 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2013 Manhattan Sales [Douglas Elliman]

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[Three Cents Worth #248 NY] Manhattan’s Labor Day Listing Bottom

October 4, 2013 | 10:20 am | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Over the past five years (and for the 13+ years I’ve collected Manhattan listing inventory), supply bottoms in August and begins a short ascent in the fall. I took a look at the two-week period before and after the Labor Day bottom over the past five years…

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My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan’s Labor Day Listing Bottom [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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