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Most Recent Quarter

Excerpted from the 2Q 2005 Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan Market Overview [prepared by Miller Samuel Inc.] Analysis of the prior year is also available.

The Manhattan Market (Co-ops and Condos)
Prices continued to set records as inventory does not keep pace with the number of sales

Prices continue to climb

The average sales price set a new record this quarter at $1,317,528, up 8.5% from the prior quarter record of $1,214,379 and up 30.4% from the record $1,009,998 set in the prior year quarter. It has now been four complete quarters since the $1,000,000 threshold was reached. As evidence that the upper end of the market has not significantly skewed the results, the median sales price followed a similar pattern as compared to average sales price. The median sales price was $775,000, up 9.9% from the prior quarter median sales price of $705,000 and up 24% from the $625,000 seen in the prior year quarter. The percent change of this indicator correlates closely with average sales price. The average price per square foot reached $970 per square foot, up 6.6% over the record $910 price per square foot seen in the prior quarter and 27.3% above the $762 price per square foot in the prior year quarter.

Mortgage rates fall as inventory rises

According to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates fell throughout the quarter, beginning in the third week of March. The 30-year fixed rate moved from 6.04% to 5.53% continuing to stimulate demand by bringing more people into the market. At the same time, listing inventory rose as sellers entered the spring market to take advantage of rising prices. Without the jump in list-ings seen in June, inventory levels have been fairly level in 2005. The monthly inventory totals for January through May were 4,585, 4,494, 4,327, 4,500 and 4,394 listings. Despite the gain in inventory this quarter, there are fewer listings available as compared to this time last year. There were 4,965 listings available at the end of this June, up 14.7% over the 4,500 total at the end of March but down 4.7% from the prior year quarter total of 5,211. It would take 6.8 months to sell out all existing inventory at the current rate of sales. This is up slightly from the 6.4 months seen at the prior quarter pace of absorption but faster than the 7.3 months seen in the prior year quarter.

Unit mix was nearly unchanged over the past year

The breakdown of the market by the number of bedrooms saw essentially the same mix of units to sell in the current quarter as was seen in the prior quarter and prior year quarter. Studios comprised 15% of all sales, which remained unchanged over the past year but saw an increase in average sales price of 18.2% from $321,417 to $380,073. 1-bedroom units comprised 35% of all sales, which remained unchanged over the past year but saw an increase in average sales price of 20% from $521,879 to $626,188. 2-bedroom units comprised 42% of all sales, which was down slightly from the 43% share in the prior year quarter and saw an increase in average sales price of 20.6% from $1,276,222 to $1,539,260. 3-bedroom units comprised 6% of all sales, which was up slightly over the 5% share in the prior year quarter and saw an increase in average sales price of 32.9% from $2,671,626 to $3,551,641. 4-bedroom units comprised 2% of all sales, which remained unchanged over the past year but saw an increase in average sales price of 112.8% from $4,998,910 to $10,639,792. This increase was exaggerated due to the sale of several higher priced apartments.

The market share of sub-million dollar units fell

As prices continue to rise, the share of units that sell below $1,000,000 continues to fall. In the fourth quarter 2001 after 9/11, the entry level market was the most active seeing 87% of all units sell below the $1,000,000 threshold. The third quarter of 2001 was more representative of the mix with 78% of all units selling below this threshold. However, this market share has been eroding over the past four years as prices have been climbing. In the most recent quarter, 63% of all units sold below this threshold. In terms of dollars, the aggregate total of all sales dollars of units below this threshold was 42% in the third quarter of 2001, while the most recent quarter the sales dollars below the threshold was 27%.

Average days on market and listing discount weakened slightly

The average time to sell a Manhattan residence, measured from the last price change if any, to the contract date, increased by 8 days from the prior quarter to 102 days, after two consecutive quarters below 100 days. This indicator was still 3 days faster than the 105 days seen in the prior year quarter. The average discount from list price, often considered the negotiability of a sales transaction, rose slightly from 1.4% in the prior quarter to 1.7%. The market is still less negotiable than the prior year quarter when the average listing discount was 2.2%.

Methodology: The market-wide co-op and condo data used in this report was collected during the normal course of business for Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman and is based on all property sales available within each defined market area. Current and historical data includes the entire island of Manhattan

The Manhattan Co-op Market
Price levels in individual size categories increased while inventory contracted

Average sales price exceeded $1,000,000 for the first time

The average sales price increased 11.5% to $1,102,640 from the $988,746 record set in the prior quarter and is 27.4% above the prior year quarter average of $865,490. The average sales price of all size categories saw gains over the prior quarter with studio and 4-bedrooms being the largest. The average sales price of a studio unit increased 10.7% to $343,566 from the $310,473 average in the prior quarter and up 25.4% over the prior year quarter. The largest increase was seen in the 4-bedroom market. Its 48% gain average in sales price, from $5,978,034 in the prior year quarter to $8,849,673 was skewed by a record $44,000,000 penthouse sale on Fifth Avenue. The remainder of the categories saw the following: the average sales price of a 1- bedroom unit was $551,626, up 2.4% over the prior quarter but up 26.9% over the prior year quarter; the average sales price of a 2-bedroom unit was $1,210,441, up 5.1% over the prior quarter but up 20.5% over the prior year quarter; the average sales price of a 3-bedroom unit was $3,326,727, up 1.2% over the prior quarter but up 44.3% over the prior year quarter.

Median sales price and average price per square foot set records

The median sales price of a co-op unit in the current quarter increased 2.5% from $610,000 in the prior quarter to $625,000. This is 26.3% above the prior year quarter median sales price of $495,000. The 2.5% gain in median sales price indicates that the 11.5% gain in average sales price over the same period was skewed upward from the sale of several large units this quarter. Average price per square foot reached a record $869 per square foot, up 5.2% over the prior quarter and up 26.7% over the $686 average price per square foot seen in the prior year quarter.

The number of sales was largely unchanged as inventory contracted over the past year

There were 1,269 co-op sales in the current quarter, up 4.9% over the prior quarter total of 1,210 units but down 0.8% from the prior year quarter total of 1,279 units. Over the same period, inventory increased 19.8% to 3,138 units from the prior quarter total of 2,620 units but was down 7.5% over the prior year quarter total of 3,393 units. Despite the typical increase in inventory in the second quarter as sellers enter the market for the peak spring selling season, overall inventory was down from the same period last year.

Days on market and listing discount stabilized

The average days on market remained below 100 days for the third consecutive quarter at 98 days, up eight days from the prior quarter total of 90 days but down 7 days from the 105-day average seen in the prior year quarter. The average discount from list price followed a similar pattern, seeing an average of 1.2% in the current quarter, up from 1.0% in the prior quarter but down from 2.2% seen in the prior year quarter. The changes in these indicators are relatively subtle and indicate that properties sell faster than historical norms and negotiability is relatively limited.

The Manhattan Condo Market
Studio, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom units saw gains in price and market share

Average sales price and price per square foot rose as median sales price fell

The average sales price rose a modest 1.4% to $1,570,375 from $1,548,139 last quarter but jumped 28.4% over the $1,222,929 in the prior year quarter. Average price per square foot similarly rose 5.2% to $1,089 over $1,035 in the prior quarter and was up 24.5% over the $875 in the prior year quarter. For the second consecutive quarter, price per square foot remained above the $1,000 threshold. At the same time, median sales price fell 0.7% to $980,000 from the $987,000 record set in the prior quarter but rose 16.8% from the $840,000 median sales price at this time last year.

Unit mix shifted toward smaller units

The modest gains in the average price indicators and decrease in the median sales price is largely due to the shift in unit mix since studio, 1-bedroom and 2-bedrooms gained both market share and average sales price. The average sales price of a studio was $450,503, up 9.6% over the prior quarter and gained a 1% market share to 11%. The average sales price of a 1-bedroom was $724,463, up 5.9% over the prior quarter and gained a 1% market share to 33%. The average sales price of a 2-bedroom was $1,819,782, up 6.8% over the prior quarter and gained a 1% market share to 50%.

Number of listings rose to prior year quarter levels

After falling in the second half of 2004, inventory rose modestly in 2005 as new developments came on line and sellers entered the spring market. The number of condo listings is relatively unchanged at 1,827 units this quarter as compared to 1,818 units at this time last year but is up 7% over the prior quarter total of 1,707 units. The number of sales exceeded 1,000 for the first time in three years reaching 1,002 this quarter.

Average days on market expanded and average listing discount increased

It took an average of 107 days or 8 days longer than the prior quarter total of 99 days to sell a condo, 3 days longer than the 104 days it took in the prior year quarter. With the exception of the dip last quarter to 99 days, the overall days on market has remained relatively consistent over the past year. The average listing discount has followed, similarly increasing to 2.1% above the 1.7% discount in the prior quarter. This indicator has hovered just above 2% for the last six quarters.

Average size fell from the prior quarter

Condo units averaged 1,442 square feet this quarter, down 3.6% from the prior quarter but up 3.2% from the prior year quarter average of 1,398 square feet. Ten years ago, the average size of a condo was 1,087 square feet. Condos are currently 32.7% larger than those sold a decade ago. This represents a general housing trend in Manhattan that saw its recent peak five years ago at 1,666 square feet. The current average is nearly identical to the average size of a condo over the past two years at 1,433 square feet.

The Manhattan Luxury Market
The luxury market set new price records again

Average square footage exceeded 3,000 for the first time

With a few exceptions, the average size of a luxury unit has trended upward since the fourth quarter of 2002 when the average size was 2,417 square feet. Average square footage reached 3,027 this quarter, exceeding the 3,000 threshold for the first time and was up 9.9% over the 2,755 average seen in the prior year quarter. This pattern is out of step with the overall market, which has not seen a general trend of increasing unit sizes over the past several years.

All luxury price indicators set records again

The average sales price of a luxury unit exceeded $5,000,000 this quarter reaching a record $5,166,644, up 14% from the $4,533,297 record set last quarter. The median sales price set a record at $3,800,000, up 5.6% from the $3,600,000 record set in the prior quarter and up 26.4% from the prior year quarter. The average price per square foot reached $1,707, up 10% from $1,552 set in the prior quarter and up 24.1% from $1,375 set in the prior year quarter. The average days on market and average listing discount saw modest expansion this quarter but were in line with levels seen over the prior year. On average, it took 135 days to sell a luxury unit this quarter, 33 days longer than the overall market but consistent with past trends. The average discount expanded slightly from 2% to 2.4% as compared to the prior quarter but remained higher than the overall market, which averaged 1.7% in this quarter.

Market share continued to rise

The luxury market accounted for $1,126,328,392 in the current quarter representing 39.5% of the overall $2,873,528,568 sales dollars tracked in this quarter, up from 37.4% in the prior quarter and 35.5% in the prior year quarter.

Note: This sub-category is the analysis of the top ten percent of all co-op and condo sales. The data is also contained within with the co-op and condo markets presented.

The Manhattan Loft Market
Average size fell while the average price per square foot set a record

Average square footage fell

Loft units sold this quarter averaged 1,816 square feet, down 15.3% from the prior quarter average of 2,145 and down 2% from the prior year quarter average of 1,854. The prior quarter average size appeared to be an anomaly as it was the largest average seen in nearly three years while the current size is more in line with previous results. The more normalized average size this quarter had the effect of showing a drop in two of the three price indicators while prices on individual transactions were rising.

Average price per square foot set a new record high

The average price per square foot of a loft unit is approaching the $1,000 threshold at $942 for the quarter. This price indicator was 1.7% above the prior quarter average of $926 per square foot, and 19.1% above the prior year quarter average of $791. Both prior marks were also records for their respective quarters. The large drop in average square footage impacted the average sales price and median sales price indicators. Average sales price fell 13.9% to $1,711,123 from the prior quarter average of $1,986,626 but was 16.8% above the $1,465,629 average reached in the same period last year. The median sales price fell 10.6% to $1,475,000 from the prior quarter median of $1,650,000 but was up 25.5% over the prior year quarter median of $1,175,000.

Number of sales and inventory increased

The number of loft units sold this quarter surged 28.5% to 221 units up from 172 units in the prior quarter and was up 26.3% or 175 units over the prior year quarter. Over the same period the number of listings grew 10.7% to 361 units over the prior quarter total of 326 units but were down 21.4% from the prior year quarter total of 459 units. Inventory has fallen each successive quarter over the year until the current quarter, placing upward pressure on prices throughout the year.

Note: This sub-category is the analysis of all co-op and condo loft sales available. The data is also contained within with the co-op and condo markets presented.

Important Notice: This analysis may not be reproduced or used in whole or in part, except with proper credit as to its authorship. To view general information on the preparation of the market reports view the methodology section.

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