Bloomberg Markets Interview: July 10, 2018, Manhattan Housing Market

July 11, 2018 | 9:07 am | | TV, Videos |

I enjoyed my sit down with Vonnie Quinn and Shery Ahn on Bloomberg Markets yesterday. The discussion focused on the release of the Elliman Report: Q2-2018 Manhattan Sales that I have authored since 1994 and the Bloomberg story that covered it.

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Elliman Magazine Spring Edition – 5 Charts

April 15, 2018 | 4:10 pm | | Infographics |

Every seasonal edition, Douglas Elliman Real Estate asks me to provide a visual market update for their magazine in any 5 of the markets they cover nationwide. The following graphic is found in their latest Elliman Magazine.

Click on the following graphic to see my charts in all their majesty.

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Bloomberg Markets Interview April 3rd, 2018

April 15, 2018 | 4:00 pm | | TV, Videos |

I’m a bit late to post this interview but the content is still relevant since it addresses the sales slowdown we are seeing across the NYC metro area. I had a fun conversation with Bloomberg’s Julie Hyman and Julia Chatterley on “Bloomberg Markets.”



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[Media] Daniel Gershburg Podcast: Market Conditions, Valuation and Neutrality

February 12, 2018 | 12:43 pm | Podcasts |

I’ve been following Dan Gershburg‘s Twitter handle for quite a while and found it to be a great resource for pretty much everything. He’s a real estate attorney and we got to know each other a little bit over the ultraweb. Eventually he invited me to join him on his podcast. I got to talk with him about a few things outside my usual discourse: my concept of “neutrality” and how I got started (and who doesn’t want to wax on poetic about themselves for 45 minutes?) I enjoyed the discussion and I think you will too.

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The Full Nelson: Tax Reform Impact on Residential and Commercial Real Estate

January 28, 2018 | 9:03 pm | TV, Videos |

James Nelson, a commercial broker powerhouse who just moved from Cushman & Wakefield to Avison Young, came to my office and interviewed me on the new federal tax law and related subjects for his Globe Street blog column called “The Full Nelson“.


[click on image to watch interview]

He provided NYC sales volume data for all NYC boroughs but Staten Island – and I combined it with the residential data we collect to see how the real estate types compare side-by-side.


[click to expand]

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[Media] Bloomberg Markets Interview January 11, 2018

January 11, 2018 | 11:07 pm | | Milestones |

So I was walking down Fifth Avenue in Midtown Manhattan in the late morning after a meeting and got a call from Bloomberg TV. Apparently, two different stories that featured two of the market reports I author – published by Douglas Elliman – were the number one and two most emailed on the Bloomberg Terminals worldwide.  They wanted to talk about them.

So I took a left and walked over Bloomberg HQ.  Got to speak with Vonnie Quinn and Shery Ahn on set – who knew how to make an interview go well.

This is a 2-minute clip of the 5-minute interview, but you’ll get the gist. I’ll expand on this discussion tomorrow at 2 pm when my weekly Housing Note is released.

[click to view video]

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New Manhattan Condos Got Really Big Over The Past Three Years

January 3, 2018 | 6:00 am | Charts |

Average sales size patterns for these two size sales categories split sharply three years ago.


[Click to expand]

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[Media] Brick Underground Podcast January 2, 2018 – Jonathan Miller

January 2, 2018 | 3:36 pm | | Podcasts |

Just before the holidays, I got to join Alanna Schubach and Nathan Tomey on their Brick Underground podcast to talk about 2018.

This podcast will always have a special meaning to me as our late friend Jhoanna Robledo‘s passion project.

The Brick Underground Podcast: Talking 2018 with NYC real estate appraiser Jonathan Miller.

Click on the graphic below to listen to 30 minutes of Brick talk.

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2017: The Year The 2015 Manhattan Market Shift Became Conventional Wisdom

January 1, 2018 | 11:00 am | | Charts |

After controlling the Manhattan housing market for quite a while, sellers and landlords exchanged roles with buyers and tenants circa 2015.

After peaking in 3Q 2015, the market share of bidding wars fell by two thirds. Bidding wars remain more common at lower price points. After bottoming in the 3Q 2015, the market share of rentals with landlord concessions has expanded sharply due to high-end rental development over-building. But like the sales market, the oversupply remains at the upper end.

Aside

Sunday, December 31, 2017, was a trifecta of my New York Times Real Estate market insight goodness before the year ended:

Landlords and Sellers Adjust [New York Times: Calculator column]

Manhattan Prices Stable in 2017, Even as Luxury Takes a Breather [New York Times: Big Ticket column]

Ditching the Tub [New York Times]

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Bloomberg TV – Housing Related Issues in Final Version of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017

December 27, 2017 | 9:07 pm | | Investigative |

Today I joined Joe Weisenthal and Julie Hyman on Bloomberg TV’s “Bloomberg Markets” for a discussion on the impact to the U.S. Housing Market in the aftermath of the new Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 that was signed into law by the president on December 22, 2017.

Here are about 2 minutes of the 5-minute interview:

Back on December 14, 2017, I provided a summary of the proposed tax bill comparing the House and Senate versions. The bills were merged into committee and signed by the president into law on December 22, 2017, effective January 1, 2018.

You can download my housing summary regarding the final version of the new tax law [pdf].

Fun side note: Here’s the stock photo of me that Bloomberg uses whenever I appear on television or radio. In this case, its projected about 15′ tall for TV. It’s a picture Bloomberg took of me about 14 years ago – circa 2003. I look like I’m in high school. I guess that shows how long I’ve been a regular contributor.

UPDATE to fun side note Someone just shared my current bio photo on the Bloomberg Terminals taken about 20 years ago.

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How the GOP Tax Bill Might Impact U.S. Residential Real Estate

December 14, 2017 | 5:49 pm | Investigative |

[UPDATE: The impact of the tax bill changed after it came out of committee and became law on December 22nd, 2017. See an updated tax law impact summary here.]

Both houses of Congress have passed far-reaching tax bills with a lot of common ground between them. The U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives are in the process of merging their versions into a single bill that will be voted on, and if it gets out of committee, it will be submitted to the president for signing.

Unlike the 1986 tax reform bill, which took six months of public hearings and discussion on both sides of the aisle, this tax bill was worked on for a year by the GOP and was passed very quickly without most of the signers knowing what was actually in it. Therefore I anticipate an ongoing procession of additional insights that impact the housing market as more people read the bills or the eventual law.

This lack of transparency and vetting alone is not great news for housing, which is very dependant on an “uncertainty-free” environment. In addition, there is a “get it done before Christmas” deadline.

Here is what I mapped out but this is only what we think we know by reading many interpretations with source links presented at the bottom of the table below. Here’s the pdf version of the table.

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NY1 TV, ‘Mornings On 1’ with Pat Kiernan

December 14, 2017 | 4:48 pm | TV, Videos |

Yesterday I joined Pat Kiernan on NY1’s Mornings on 1 show to talk about the proposed tax GOP tax bills agree to by the House and the Senate. Pat is a local broadcasting legend so it was great to actually meet him in person.

Later that day a couple of sticking points separating the two versions of the bills were addressed in the congressional committee. Once they agree to the terms, they’ll probably hold a vote next week and then send to the president for signature.

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