Bloomberg View Column: Understanding Housing’s Dog Days

August 31, 2014 | 5:04 pm | BloombergViewlogoGray | Columns |

BVlogoThe comparison of housing market statistics against last year’s results produced misdirection in our understanding of it’s current state. Although a year-over-year comparison gets rid of seasonality, the results are at the mercy of how normal the prior year was…

The slowdown in the U.S. housing market has caused much hand-wringing. But keep this in mind: robust housing sales and price gains in 2013 were the anomaly and at odds with tepid economic fundamentals such as income, employment and credit. It’s the year-over-year comparisons that make things look worse than they are.

Read my latest Bloomberg View column
Understanding Housing’s Dog Days.
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Bloomberg View Column: The Myth of Real Estate Stigma

August 31, 2014 | 4:52 pm | BloombergViewlogoGray | Columns |

BVlogo I gave some thought to what the long term impact of a nationally-covered local tumultuous event on a local housing market might be…

The Aug. 9th shooting death of unarmed black teenager Michael Brown by a white police officer has roiled Ferguson, Missouri, thrusting it into the national spotlight. But what happens to the town of 21,000 outside of St. Louis after the turmoil ends — more specifically, what happens to property values?

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The Myth of Real Estate Stigma. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View.


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[Three Cents Worth #269 NY] Charting A Decade of Manhattan Inventory

August 31, 2014 | 4:09 pm | curbed | Columns |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column I posted a few weeks ago on @CurbedNY:

As summer comes to a close and many have checked out until Labor Day, I thought I’d try another GIF animation (after the jump!) to illustrate the long fall of inventory (I’m on the “pronounced like ‘Jif’ peanut butter” team, as is the format’s inventor). August generally represents the annual low for inventory (even though fourth quarter of 2013 was quarterly record bottom, August 2013 was the record monthly bottom). I thought I’d show the last decade worth of inventory and provide some context to how low inventory actually is…



3cw8-19-14
[click to expand chart]


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Charting A Decade of Manhattan Inventory [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
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[Three Cents Worth #268 NY] Units In New Developments Grow Larger

August 31, 2014 | 3:57 pm | curbed | Columns |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column that I posted a few weeks ago on @CurbedNY:

For this chart, I looked at a little more than a decade of Manhattan closed sales by square footage, breaking out the market by new development sales and re-sales. During this period, the average square footage of a new development sale was 1,382—15.6 percent larger than the 1,195 average square footage of a re-sale. However, new development sales size showed significant volatility as developers adapted to the changing market. The underlying driver of volatility is the quest to achieve the highest price per square foot premium a developer realizes by creating larger contiguous space. As a result, the much chronicled “micro-unit” phenomenon falls short and can’t become mainstream under current market conditions without external incentives (i.e. government). The math doesn’t work…



3cwNY8-12-14
[click to expand charts]


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Units In New Developments Grow Larger [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
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[Three Cents Worth #267 NY] NYC Sets New Record Average Sales Price

August 5, 2014 | 3:17 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Although our NYC market reports only cover Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens, I also track Staten Island and The Bronx for fun. For the second quarter 2014 NYC analysis, I observed two new records:

1. The average sales price for NYC residential real estate (co-ops, condos and 1-3 family sales) reached a record $975,441 (pink line).

2. The average sales price for NYC residential real estate excluding Manhattan reached a record $542,216 (orange line).



2q14NYC-ASPspread [click to expand charts]


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: NYC Sets New Record Average Sales Price [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
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Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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A Fifth Avenue Co-op’s 87-Year Price Increase was 3.6X Rate of Inflation

August 1, 2014 | 6:30 am | nytlogo |

960fifth$450krecord-1927

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A few months ago there was a record $70M sale of a penthouse co-op sale at 960 Fifth Avenue.  The purchaser paid $5M over list price.

While doing some research I ran across an article in the New York Times archive that described a record Manhattan sale of $450,000 in the same building in 1927.  The apartment was located on the 10th and most of the 11th floor in the same building (aka 3 East 77th Street).

Based on the unit description, I believe this to be Apartment 10/11B which last sold for $21,000,000 on July 24, 2013.   Using the BLS calculator for CPI, a $450,000 sales price in 1927 adjusted for inflation to 2014 dollars would be $6,164,043 or an increase of 1,270%.

However the apartment sold for $21,000,000. an increase of 4,567% or 3.6 times the rate of inflation.

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My Bloomberg View Column: Housing Data Is Old and Moldy

July 31, 2014 | 11:32 am | BloombergViewlogoGray | Columns |

BVlogo

After being pummeled with confusing sound bits after the release of Monday’s Pending Home SalesIndex by the NAR and the S&P/Case Shiller Index, I thought it was time to set the record straight on the applicability of this research.

This is my second column for Bloomberg View: Housing Data Is Old and Moldy


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North America Leads Luxury Housing Trends in 2Q14 – Knight Frank

July 30, 2014 | 12:34 pm | delogo |

KFpgci2q14NA

Knight Frank published their quarterly Prime Global Cities Index today and North America led the way as a region with a 14.5% rise in prices. “Prime” translates to “Luxury” in US housingspeak. We provide research for their Manhattan and Miami results through the Elliman Reports we prepare.

The report conclusion succinctly summarizes the state of high end housing today and speaks to the global phenomenon:

…the index’s annual increase of 6.2% in the year to June is above the long-run average of 4.6% recorded since Lehman’s collapse in the third quarter of 2008, underlining the extent to which prime property has become a favoured asset class globally.

Here’s the table…

KFpgci2q14
[click on table to open report]

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My First Post on Bloomberg View: Homebuying Gets a Housecleaning

July 28, 2014 | 9:28 pm | BloombergViewlogoGray | Columns |

BVlogo

I was recently approached by Bloomberg View, the editorial arm of Bloomberg LP, to provide commentary on the housing market. I seem to be in good company.

Although their well oiled machine began to append my additional title “Bloomberg Contributor” earlier in the month when being sourced, it wasn’t an oversight on their part. I didn’t submit my first post until last week. It took me a few weeks to get my groove on as I was in the midst of a 2Q14 market report release gauntlet.

Last Wednesday evening I wrote my first post about Lawrence Yun’s attendance at the Zillow Housing Forum and how NAR had become just one of the crowd, and the symbolism of it all. I got the idea when I was sent the Zillow e-vite to attend the conference and I noticed that Yun was to speak.

Excited, I submitted my first post on Thursday morning, unfortunately just before the Zillow-Trulia bombshell deal jumped into the headlines. So I needed to add this new twist – which thankfully made my original point even stronger. I re-wrote my first post and it was placed online last Friday.

Here is the first column of hopefully many to come: Homebuying Gets a Housecleaning


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If Choosing Suburbs: Surge in NYC High Wage Earners Choosing NY-NJ-CT

July 21, 2014 | 2:11 pm |

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According to New York City’s IBO, in 2012, there were actually 5 times more moves to Florida than to adjacent Connecticut.

However when breaking the movers into 2 categories: households with real income below and above $500,000, the results really change. New York, New Jersey and Connecticut enjoyed a large increase of high income movers from New York City. The California market share in this category of movers collapsed.

But it is important to recognize that the high wage earners only represent 1.8% of total movers. Florida is still the third most popular destination for movers from NYC who are mere mortals.

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