Most NYC building permits since ’63 – Brooklyn nearly equals rest of city

July 30, 2015 | 10:20 am | wsjlogo |

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Source: WSJ

Yesterday evening Josh Barbanel at WSJ posted a milestone piece on the current building boom: Construction in New York City Goes Through The Roof: New residential permits surge as developers rush to qualify for tax break

There has been an incredible surge in NYC residential building permits, the most in more than 50 years. It’s amazing to see the Brooklyn permit total nearly reach the total of remainder of the city tallied together.

New York City is entering what could be the biggest building boom in a generation, census figures show, as work gets under way on hundreds of residential projects in neighborhoods across the city. In the first six months of the year, developers received new residential building permits for 42,088 apartments and houses in the city, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, already more than in any full year since 1963, when nearly 50,000 permits were issued.

While permit numbers don’t translate directly to what will actually get built, it is clearly a sign of a significant pipeline in the making.

Reasons?

  • Expiring tax abatement program encouraged developers rush in and start foundation work by June 15
  • Alternative financing around the globe chasing higher returns that low rates can’t deliver
  • Little regulatory oversight because of Dodd-Frank bogging down traditional commercial lenders
  • Significant pent-up demand from 2008-2012 unleashed on the market
  • Improving economy with near record employment growth

UPDATE – I neglected to be more clear and say that this surge will likely collapse in the near future, since the jump in permits is likely to be wildly exaggerated as a result of the first reason above.

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An Honest Appraisal – Some Personal Background Including My Favorite Color and Love of Yo-Yos

July 30, 2015 | 9:59 am | Articles |

A while back, Kim Velsey at New York Observer reached out and thought it would be interesting to do a profile on me. Who wouldn’t like to talk about themselves for hours? What an opportunity! LOL. Uh, Yes?

We met and she proceeded to “drain my soul” as I am fond of saying – by the end of the interview my head was spinning and I wasn’t quite sure what I had said or if I would look foolish (the sign of a good interviewer). I was also getting a little worried when I started hearing through the grapevine who she was reaching out to – in other words this was an actual, real interview profile thing!

It turned out to be a fun, extensive and detailed read that captured a very fair and accurate picture of me for which I am very grateful (and relieved).

Jonathan Miller Is the Most Trusted (and Quoted) Man in New York Real Estate
An Honest Appraisal by Kim Velsey July 29, 2015

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Photo credit: New York Observer

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[VIDEO] Boomberg TV ‘Market Makers’ 7-27-15

July 27, 2015 | 10:49 pm | Reports |

Had a nice conversion this morning with Matt Miller and Stephanie Ruhle on Bloomberg TV’s ‘Market Makers.’ Never been on this show before. Wow. Energy+.

Before the show started, we had a active debate on whether ‘American Flyers‘ or ‘Breaking Away‘ was the best bicycling movie. Clearly ‘Breaking Away” was the better of the two HANDS DOWN but I liked the other a lot, especially for someone who likes the whole culture of bike racing. Not sure what bike movies had to do with our ‘state of the Hamptons market’ discussion covering our Hamptons market report for Douglas Elliman, but hey, it was obviously more important to settle the bike movie issue first.

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[VIDEO] Fox Business ‘Risk & Reward’ w/Deirdre Bolton 7-27-15

July 27, 2015 | 10:22 pm | TV, Videos |

Always great to swing by and speak with Deirdre Bolton on her Fox Business show “Risk & Reward.” However today’s show was a bit of a mess for me. Working on 4.5 hours of sleep I said I was talking about “interest-free” then changed it to “principal-free” mortgages – LOL – good grief! Note to self: “interest-only.” Plus my company name was reversed 2x and the chyron had it backwards as well. Didn’t discourage me though – always fun to do the show.

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[Video] Ladies and Gentlemen, We Apologize For The Unavoidable Delay…

July 19, 2015 | 11:56 am |

I’ve been interviewed by Charlie Pellet of Bloomberg Radio a few times and have thought to myself, “His voice sounds really familiar.” Here’s this short video from The New Yorker that shows why.

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Will London (or any large city) Become a Bad Version of Dubai?

July 15, 2015 | 2:24 pm |

Dubaization Defined.

This video is an epic condemnation of the new wave of architecture associated with super luxury housing that is redefining the London skyline presented by – The Guardian.

Alain de Botton goes full on, providing heavy criticism that is well worth watching for the answer to the question: Why we are seeing the super luxury/starchitect phenomenon occur?

But the rest of the piece slips into full scale whining.

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Rotating GIFs: Cost of Land Is The Secret to Affordable Housing

July 14, 2015 | 4:48 pm |

Here’s a cool rotating gif map on rising U.S. land prices based on data taken from the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy (in partnership with University of Wisconsin-Madison).

I’ve used their data for my Bloomberg View column talking about the price of land. In short, the land is what appreciates, not the improvements to the land such as the house itself. The price of land is a key issue in the U.S. affordable housing crisis we are now experiencing.

Here’s a 40 year view on the price of land for residential development provided by Howmuch.net


Source: Howmuch.net

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Fed Charts: How are the Housing Fundamentals Doing?

July 13, 2015 | 11:22 am | fedny |

The New York Fed just put out an economic recap of the U.S. economy that is chock full of charts and data.

NYC employment growth is strong…

7-13-2015NYFedregionalempl

But nationally, unemployment is falling but those being counted on the roles are falling…

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Housing starts have ramped up but most is multi-family – driven by freakin’ high rents.

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New single family home sales are lagging existing home sales (see chart above)…

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And we wonder why the economy doesn’t feels so good…anemic wage growth…

7-13-2015hourlywageNYFED

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Record Queens Condo Prices: Bigger Than Crises in Greece, China

July 9, 2015 | 9:51 pm | delogo |

Rental_0615Douglas Elliman published our research today covering Queens sales, Brooklyn sales Westchester/Putnam sales as well as the rental market for Manhattan Brooklyn & Queens. You can download the reports and more at Douglas Elliman’s market report page.

Like last week’s Manhattan report, there were lots of records set and it wasn’t simply the influence of high end sales – prices were up across the board in most markets.

Incidentally, the Bloomberg News article that covered record Queens condo sales was the second most emailed story world-wide. It stoked more interest than the finance crisis in Greece and the recent Chinese stock market gyrations. Apparently only “investors with satellites” was a more popular read.

Idea (?) for next quarter: Talk about drones and investors in the Queens housing market.

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Aspirational Marketing: Best Hamptons Magazine Cover Ever

July 8, 2015 | 10:49 am | Favorites |

As I was exiting Grand Central Terminal on my way to work, and Timeout New York was being passed out to commuters. Their now-free magazine cover caught my eye:

In this week’s issue of Time Out New York, we prove the Hamptons don’t have to be douchey.

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[click to expand]

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“Save the Moguls” Attack Ad Goes After @Airbnb

July 7, 2015 | 2:51 pm |

Cracks in the “sharing economy” are forming.

As reported on Airbnb — and real estate big shots — where it hurts” Inman News…

The ad says that nearly half of the revenue from the site goes to “real estate moguls,” a figure taken from the New York State Office of the Attorney General’s “Airbnb in the City” report from October 2014.

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Knight Frank: Moscow Rents Dropped 42% YoY in US Dollars

July 6, 2015 | 2:40 pm | kflogo | Reports |

Knight Frank just published their 1Q 2015 Prime Global Rental Index. We provide the U.S. info. Always a fascinating read.

Especially this:

In Moscow, prime rents have historically been US Dollar denominated but the weakness of the Rouble against the US Dollar has led an increasing number of landlords to swap their rents into Roubles. In US Dollar terms prime rents fell 42% on an annual basis but by only 5% in Rouble terms.

Here are the world rankings:

KFPGRI1q15table

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