[Manhattan Absorption] October 2012 – Tighter Under $10M Than Last Year = 99% of Market

Posted by Jonathan Miller - Monday, November 12, 2012, 2:35 PM

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed quarter.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

[click images to expand]

The rate for the overall market has accelerated from the year ago period. However the $10M+ market, which is roughly the starting point for the top 1% of the market saw a slow down in the absorption rate, perhaps as more property owners in that market segment try to:

• “copy cat” the “trophy sale” success seen earlier this year;
• more listings entering the market to beat the possible expiration of the Bush tax cuts on 12/31 resulting in an increase in capital gains.

Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2011 [Miller Samuel]