Matrix Blog

Brooklyn

[Three Cents Worth #267 NY] NYC Sets New Record Average Sales Price

August 5, 2014 | 3:17 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Although our NYC market reports only cover Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens, I also track Staten Island and The Bronx for fun. For the second quarter 2014 NYC analysis, I observed two new records:

1. The average sales price for NYC residential real estate (co-ops, condos and 1-3 family sales) reached a record $975,441 (pink line).

2. The average sales price for NYC residential real estate excluding Manhattan reached a record $542,216 (orange line).



2q14NYC-ASPspread [click to expand charts]


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: NYC Sets New Record Average Sales Price [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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Adding Queens To Our Manhattan/Brooklyn Rental Report

July 14, 2014 | 9:12 am | delogo | Reports |

Rental_0614

We’ve expanded the Elliman rental report to include Queens this month and added additional metrics for Manhattan and Brooklyn.

MANHATTAN
- Prices increased for 4th consecutive month after year end lull.
- Median rent is at highest point in more than 5 years.
- The vacancy rate was lowest June in 5 years.
- Use of concessions continued to fall, now at nominal levels.
- Marketing times and negotiability continued to fall.
- Luxury market outperformed the overall market.

BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest, East Regions]
- Median rental price up year over year for 13 consecutive months.
- Rents hovering near record highs but have remained stable since beginning of year.
- New rentals surged indicating resistance to price increases at time of renewal.
- Nominal use of concessions by landlords.
- Overall market outperformed luxury market, price growth stronger in smaller units.
- Manhattan-Brooklyn rental price gap remained at $500, more than the $210 record low in February but less than half of 2008 level.

QUEENS
[Northwest Region]
- Median rental price year-over-year slipped after 4 consecutive monthly increases.
- Shift in mix to smaller units (60.2% share of 1-bedrooms) pulling down overall prices.
- Nearly half of the rental stock is located in new development buildings.
- Overall market outperformed luxury market, price growth stronger in smaller units.
- Marketing time slipped as listing discount remained nominal.


The Elliman Report [Miller Samuel]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery [Miller Samuel]


2Q14 Brings Mixed Regional Messages – Brooklyn, Queens and Westchester/Putnam Reports

July 14, 2014 | 8:53 am | delogo | Reports |

If you’ve been:

A. Pouring over state maps of pet ownership
B. Watching the World Cup
C. Watching the Tour de France
D. Fretting about the Russell Stover purchase

Then you may have missed last week’s market report releases for Brooklyn, Queens and Westchester/Putnam Reports. These are part of the report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994 (20 years!). The reports have a new look – hope you like them.

Click on graphics to open them.

Brooklyn_2Q_2014

BROOKLYN SALES MARKET Brooklyn housing prices continue to set new records, due to rising sales and low inventory. The median sales price of a Brooklyn residential property increased 4.5% to a record $575,000 from the same period last year. Average sales price also set a new record, rising 16.6% to $783,296 from the prior year quarter. Median sales price is now 6.5% above the $540,000 market peak reached in the third quarter of 2007 before the 2008 Lehman “tipping point.” Although this is the 7th consecutive quarter with year-over-year gains in median sales price, the first two quarters of 2014 posted smaller single-digit gains than the double-digit gains of the preceding 5 quarters…

Queens_2Q_2014

QUEENS SALES MARKET The Queens housing market took a breather after 6 consecutive quarters of rising sales. There were 2,404 sales in the second quarter, 3.6% less than the same period last year. Year to date, the number of sales remained 14.2% higher than the same period last year due to the sharp rise in first quarter sales activity. Despite the decline, listing inventory continued to fall for the 13th consecutive quarter. There were 5,892 listings at the end of the second quarter, 5.3% less than the same period last year. As a result of the combination of declining sales and falling inventory, the pace of the market remained stable…

Westchester_2Q_2014

WESTCHESTER/PUTNAM SALES MARKET Westchester single family contract activity was higher than prior year levels as severe winter weather conditions pushed first quarter pending sales into the second quarter. Despite the 16.7% decline in closed home sales, total contracts expanded 3.9% from the prior year quarter and jumped 51.9% from the prior quarter. The rise in contracts from first to second quarter was higher than the 35.5% average increase of the prior 2 years. Listing inventory expanded 7.9% to 3,905 rising from the low water mark set in 2013…


Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Market Chart Gallery [Miller Samuel]


…and the Home Seller will give you a Free Tesla!

July 12, 2014 | 7:26 pm | nymaglogo |

SodFarmtractor

Back when I was in college, a good friend of mine owned a large Michigan sod farm with his father – acres and acres of putting green quality sod. They wanted to upgrade their big tractor so I joined him on his visit to the local tractor dealership – International Harvester (my parents tell me I am a distant – really distant – relative of John Deere).

1979IHscout

[Source: Hemmings]

The tractor they were looking at included air conditioning and a surround sound stereo system. It was impressive. The salesman said that if they bought the tractor that month the dealership would throw in an International Harvester truck.

My friend’s comment to me under his breath was something along the lines of “looks like we are actually buying the truck too.”

Jhoanna Robeledo’s New York Magazine piece on the guy who throws in a Tesla if you buy his condo talks about this marketing technique.  Using a Tesla is buzz worthy as a well thought of brand – after all marketing is about getting eyeballs on the listing – but is it effective?  Does this technique actual sell properties?

In my view throwing in such a large concession is a red flag signifying the property is over priced enough to cover the seller’s cost of the “gift.”

Econ 101:  There is no such thing as a free lunch.

We’ve seen this marketing gimmick attempted with other cars such as a Prius, a Porsche, a Cadillac and Ferrari.

The funny thing is, you never read a follow-up article that shows how this marketing technique/gimmick was successful.

JohnDeereLM

A buyer for the condo in Jhoanna’s article would have the financial wherewithal to buy their own Tesla and likely isn’t thinking about buying a car during their visit to the property.

We don’t see these extreme marketing gimmicks tried with low margin properties. “If I buy this $75,000 condo I get a free Tesla!” Of course not – the condo seller in this “Tesla” story is telegraphing to a potential buyer the listing is over priced.

Yes, in a typical suburban transaction, a seller may throw in a used lawnmower to close the sale, but this is not something that is usually promoted during the actual marketing of the property.

NEWSFLASH Buyers are a lot smarter than this Tesla-giving away seller is giving them given credit for.

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PIX11 TV Segment on Manhattan-Brooklyn Rental Report

June 13, 2014 | 8:28 pm | delogo | Videos |

pix11rentalreport
[click to play]

Got a call yesterday from John Ford, a reporter for PIX11 regarding the publication of Douglas Elliman’s Manhattan & Brooklyn Rental Report I author for Douglas Elliman.

He’s a very nice guy and really listened to and presented the key findings of the report. Luciane Serifovic, Elliman’s Director of Rentals made a couple of good points as well. Fun!

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Manhattan-Brooklyn Rental Price Spread Widens to $500

June 12, 2014 | 3:15 pm | delogo | Charts |

2014-5Brooklyn-Manhspread
[click to expand]

The report we author for Douglas Elliman covering the Manhattan/Brooklyn rental markets was published today.

Back in February many observers of the Manhattan and Brooklyn rental markets were saying: “The Spread is Dead, Long Live the Spread!” Ok not really.

But there was a lot made of the fact that the difference in median rental price between the two markets narrowed to $210 from as much as $1,125 in 2008. Manhattan rental prices had stabilized at the end of last year as Brooklyn continued to see sharp gains.

But that was as close as it got. Since the beginning of the year, month-over-month Manhattan rental prices began to rise as Brooklyn started to level off.

Manhattan rents cooled last year as the sales market poached demand from record volume. I saw the decline was temporary. The excess purchase activity from several years of pent-up demand has largely been absorbed allowing rents to begin climbing again.

Brooklyn rents are beginning to level off as a result of all the new rental development entering the market soaking up demand.

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May 2014 Report: Manhattan and Brooklyn Rentals Swap Roles

June 12, 2014 | 1:29 pm | delogo | Reports |

Rental_0514 Today Douglas Elliman published the Manhattan/Brooklyn rental report that I author. This monthly report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994 (20 years!). We discontinued the quarterly rental report series but still present the information in our aggregate database.

MANHATTAN
- Median rental price increased to the highest level in more than 5 years.
- After softening in late 2013 with intensive competition from the sales market, median rental prices have trended higher since the beginning of 2014.
- Although the market share of landlord concessions edged higher over the year ago level last year, they have fallen sharply from 13.1% in January.
- Vacancy rate slipped nominally from same period last year, hovering near multi-year lows.
- New rental activity fell reflecting the increased likelihood that tenants would renew their leases as a result of limited alternatives to increased affordability.

BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest Regions]
- Median rental price increased from the same period last year but has showed some stability since the beginning of the year.
- 2 and 3-bed apartments showed weaker price trends with the addition of new rental housing stock and intense competition from the purchase market.
- There was a sharp drop in new rentals from the same month a year ago as more tenants were resigned to sign their leases at time of renewal.
- Although marketing times expanded slightly, negotiability dropped sharply reflecting the ongoing tight market conditions.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

MANHATTAN For the third consecutive month, median rental price increased above the prior year level. Median rental price was $3,300, 3.1% above the same period last year and the highest level reached since early 2009. After weakening in the second half of 2013 from intensive competition from the sales market, median rental prices have generally trended higher since the beginning of the year. The remaining rental price indicators were mixed. Average rental price slipped 1.2% to $3,902 and average rental price per square foot increased 7.1% respectively from the same month last year…

BROOKLYN Median rental price increased 8.6% to $2,800 from the same month last year, yet remained essentially unchanged from the prior month. Since the beginning of the year, median rental price has showed some stability on a month-over-month basis…

The Elliman Report: 5-2014 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 5-2014 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Douglas Elliman]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Brooklyn Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Quarterly) [Miller Samuel]

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[Video] TRD Forum: Getting A Sense of the New Development Frenzy

May 23, 2014 | 4:24 pm | trdlogo | Videos |

I stumbled across this clip taken at the recent New Development Showcase hosted by The Real Deal. The publisher and founder, Amir Korangy, pulls off a couple of well-timed video-bombs!

This video gives you a good sense of the excitement, if not frenzy in the residential development space in New York City. There was a long line of people waiting to enter the venue for the event when I arrived.

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Contrary To Popular Belief, The World Has Manhattan All Wrong

May 18, 2014 | 11:00 am |

nycsubway1969timelife
[Source: Time-Life]

Today, when I speak to friends and relatives in other parts of country, I find a consistency in the image Manhattan currently conveys and it’s completely skewed. Here’s a little background.

1985 to 1995 [Wild West] I moved to Manhattan in 1985 and it was perceived by outsiders as a very dangerous place. “Manhattan-bashing” was in vogue. My relatives in the Midwest saw Manhattan as a place where tourists were getting mugged and stabbed in broad daylight (It didn’t help that my father was mugged twice in Midtown outside of our office in broad daylight on a weekday). They feared for our lives.

1996 to 2000 [Dot Com Boom] Manhattan now had “Silicon Alley” as well as NASDAQ – which was soaring. Midwesterners were caught up in the stock market frenzy as evidence by conversations of trades of Microsoft and Caterpillar stock over potato salad and cheeseburgers and bottles of Faygo.

2001 to 2008 [9/11 to Development Boom to Lehman] The 9/11 tragedy struck New Yorkers hard but the subsequent rise of NYC from the ashes into an eventual new development housing boom was simply amazing. The Manhattan housing boom peaked in 2008, two years after the US housing market had peaked. This period ended with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and access to credit worldwide immediately evaporated.

2009 to 2010 [Collapse and Rebound] There was a surprisingly rapid improvement in the regional economy in the year following Lehman’s collapse and housing rebounded faster than expected.

2011 to 2014 [Playground of Wealthy Foreigners] Manhattan and Brooklyn become a favorite safe haven for international investors to park their money in real estate.

But now we stuck with a Manhattan housing market exaggerated stereotype (represents 90% of media coverage) in 2014:

  • Most sales are all-cash transactions.
  • Most purchasers are made by foreign buyers.
  • Most sales are millions of dollars (i.e. $5M and up).

When in fact, the 2014 Manhattan housing market reality is:

  • 45% of sales are all-cash transactions.
  • Foreign buyers are a small part of the market – i.e. 60% of all sales are co-ops and foreigners don’t purchase them.
  • More than half of all sales are below $1M (i.e. $5M+ is way up in the top 5%).

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[Infographic] Manhattan and Brooklyn Rents Continue to Rise

May 17, 2014 | 8:55 pm | delogo | Infographics |

Here’s the latest infographic from Douglas Elliman covering the Manhattan & Brooklyn rental market reports for April 2014.

April2014 Manhattan Brooklyn Rentals