Matrix Blog

Brooklyn

[Video] TRD Forum: Getting A Sense of the New Development Frenzy

May 23, 2014 | 4:24 pm | trdlogo | Videos |

I stumbled across this clip taken at the recent New Development Showcase hosted by The Real Deal. The publisher and founder, Amir Korangy, pulls off a couple of well-timed video-bombs!

This video gives you a good sense of the excitement, if not frenzy in the residential development space in New York City. There was a long line of people waiting to enter the venue for the event when I arrived.

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Contrary To Popular Belief, The World Has Manhattan All Wrong

May 18, 2014 | 11:00 am |

nycsubway1969timelife
[Source: Time-Life]

Today, when I speak to friends and relatives in other parts of country, I find a consistency in the image Manhattan currently conveys and it’s completely skewed. Here’s a little background.

1985 to 1995 [Wild West] I moved to Manhattan in 1985 and it was perceived by outsiders as a very dangerous place. “Manhattan-bashing” was in vogue. My relatives in the Midwest saw Manhattan as a place where tourists were getting mugged and stabbed in broad daylight (It didn’t help that my father was mugged twice in Midtown outside of our office in broad daylight on a weekday). They feared for our lives.

1996 to 2000 [Dot Com Boom] Manhattan now had “Silicon Alley” as well as NASDAQ – which was soaring. Midwesterners were caught up in the stock market frenzy as evidence by conversations of trades of Microsoft and Caterpillar stock over potato salad and cheeseburgers and bottles of Faygo.

2001 to 2008 [9/11 to Development Boom to Lehman] The 9/11 tragedy struck New Yorkers hard but the subsequent rise of NYC from the ashes into an eventual new development housing boom was simply amazing. The Manhattan housing boom peaked in 2008, two years after the US housing market had peaked. This period ended with the collapse of Lehman Brothers and access to credit worldwide immediately evaporated.

2009 to 2010 [Collapse and Rebound] There was a surprisingly rapid improvement in the regional economy in the year following Lehman’s collapse and housing rebounded faster than expected.

2011 to 2014 [Playground of Wealthy Foreigners] Manhattan and Brooklyn become a favorite safe haven for international investors to park their money in real estate.

But now we stuck with a Manhattan housing market exaggerated stereotype (represents 90% of media coverage) in 2014:

  • Most sales are all-cash transactions.
  • Most purchasers are made by foreign buyers.
  • Most sales are millions of dollars (i.e. $5M and up).

When in fact, the 2014 Manhattan housing market reality is:

  • 45% of sales are all-cash transactions.
  • Foreign buyers are a small part of the market – i.e. 60% of all sales are co-ops and foreigners don’t purchase them.
  • More than half of all sales are below $1M (i.e. $5M+ is way up in the top 5%).

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[Infographic] Manhattan and Brooklyn Rents Continue to Rise

May 17, 2014 | 8:55 pm | delogo | Infographics |

Here’s the latest infographic from Douglas Elliman covering the Manhattan & Brooklyn rental market reports for April 2014.

April2014 Manhattan Brooklyn Rentals


Manhattan/Brooklyn Rents Continue to Rise

May 15, 2014 | 10:24 am | delogo | Reports |

Rental_0414

Douglas Elliman published the Manhattan/Brooklyn rental report that I author today. This monthly report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994. We discontinued the quarterly rental report series but still present the information in our aggregate database.

MANHATTAN
- Second highest median rental price reached in over 5 years (highest was one month spike to $3,695 in Feb-09).
- Second consecutive month with year-over-year rise in median rent after 6 consecutive monthly declines.
- The vacancy rate was the lowest for an April in 4 years, falling to 1.45% from 1.58% a year ago.
- Market share of landlord concessions was up slightly from last year to 6.8%, but down from recent January peak of 13.1%.
- The number of new rentals slipped 6.2%, as landlords and tenants have remained more in sync for the 3rd consecutive month.

BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest Regions]
- Median rental price up year-over-year for the 11th consecutive monthly increase.
- New rental activity surged 57.1% as tenants pushed back against rising rents at time of renewal.
- Marketing times and negotiability expanded from a year ago, but remained stable over the past 3 months.
- Studios showed the largest rise in median rental price. 1-bedrooms and 2-bedrooms also increased.
- Brooklyn median rent was $442 less than Manhattan median rent, up from $210 record low in February.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

MANHATTAN Median rental price increased 1.6% to $3,247 from the same period last year to the second highest level in more than 5 years. This was the second consecutive year-over-year monthly increase after 6 consecutive months of decline, largely attributable to a higher than normal sales volume in 2013. The robust sales market provided competition, poaching some rental demand as “fencesitters” concerned about rising mortgage rates opted to purchase. Average rental price rose 5.1% to $4,008, the second time the $4,000 threshold was exceeded in the past 4 years. The overall rise in rental prices was largely seen in the studio and 1-bedroom markets with year-over-year gains of 4.2% and 1.4% respectively…

BROOKLYN The 11th consecutive increase, median rental price increased 3.9% to $2,805 from the same month last year, but fell 3.3% from the prior month record of $2,900. Average rental price followed a similar pattern rising 6.4% to $3,209 over the same period. Despite the rising trend, month over month rental price trends for all indicators have showed relative stability since the beginning of the year…

The Elliman Report: 4-2014 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4-2014 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Douglas Elliman]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Brooklyn Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Quarterly) [Miller Samuel]

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Ready, Set, Download: 1Q 2014 Market Reports for Brooklyn, Queens and Westchester/Putnam Sales

April 12, 2014 | 1:49 pm | delogo |

We released 3 reports for Douglas Elliman on the sales markets for Brooklyn, Queens and Westchester/Putnam this week. Click on the reports to download!

Brooklyn_1Q_2014 BROOKLYN The Brooklyn housing market was characterized by more modest price growth and chronic lack of inventory, holding back sales growth. Median sales price expanded 1% to $520,000 from the same period last year and the highest first quarter result in 6 years. Average sales price grew 7.3% to $681,182 over the same period. Co-ops posted the largest year-over-year gain in median sales price, rising 12.2% to $340,000 but lost 2.1% of the market share. Condos remained essentially unchanged over the year with a $625,000 median sales price and market share edged 1.6% higher. The 1-3 family median sales price increased 5.1% to $588,733 and market share increased a nominal 0.5%…

Queens_1Q_2014 QUEENS The first quarter Queens housing market was a period of rising prices after an extended period of stability, declining inventory, and rising sales. The bottom of the multi-year decline of listing inventory may have been reached in the fourth quarter of 2013. Although the first quarter listing inventory increased 7% from the prior quarter bottom to 5,617, it was the second lowest level recorded in this report series since 2005 and 13.5% below prior year levels. The number of sales jumped 32.8% to 3,156 from the prior year quarter, the highest first quarter total in 6 years. The combination of declining inventory and rising sales led to a faster market pace. The absorption rate, the number of months to sell all listing inventory at the current pace of sales, fell to 5.3 months, less than half the 11.2 month average over the past 5 years…

Westchester_1Q_2014 WESTCHESTER The Westchester housing market saw the most first quarter sales in 7 years, the highest median sales price in 6 years and initial signs that the trend of declining inventory may be ending. There were 1,525 sales in the first quarter, up 13.1% from the prior year quarter and the most first quarter sales since the same period 7 years ago. Listing inventory fell 3.7% to 5,378 from the same period last year and for the 8th consecutive quarter. With the rise in the number of sales and the decline in listing inventory, the pace of the market was faster. The monthly absorption rate, defined as the number of months to sell all inventory at the current pace of sales, fell by 1.8 months to 10.6 months from the prior year quarter…
PUTNAM After bottoming out two years ago, housing prices have generally trended higher as the number of sales expanded and inventory contracted. All price indicators posted gains from prior year levels. Median sales price increased 12.7% to $302,500 while average sales price rose 15.9% to $379,217 over the same period…

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Brooklyn Rentals: Coolness doesn’t come free

April 11, 2014 | 10:07 am | Public |

4-2014qzmanhattan-brooklyn-rentspread [Source: Quartz]

Rob Ferdman over at Quartz writes a great breakdown of the narrowing rental spread between Manhattan and Brooklyn using the data I crunch for The Elliman Report: Manhattan & Brooklyn Rentals. Here’s my version of the chart.

After I designated last week’s Bloomberg story headline “Brooklyn’s Hipster Economy Challenges Manhattan Supremacy” as my favorite new phrase, specifically:

Brooklyn’s Hipster Economy

Quartz has given me a new favorite phrase (see under original chart):

Coolness doesn’t come free

.

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[Infographic] Looking at the Manhattan and Brooklyn Rental Markets 3-2014

April 10, 2014 | 12:00 pm | delogo | Infographics |

Entering the world of infographics, here are some highlights from our just released Elliman Report: Manhattan & Brooklyn Rentals 3-2014

ManhattanBrooklyn3-14INFOGRAPHIC


The Manhattan & Brooklyn Rentals Side-by-Side Trend Comparison

March 20, 2014 | 12:50 pm |

Given the discussion about the narrowing gap between the Manhattan and Brooklyn Rental markets, I thought I’d place the rental price trends side by side to get a sense of how the two markets match up.

Manhattan
While the year-over-year Manhattan rental numbers have fallen short of the prior year, rents have remained fairly stable over the past 6 months:

2014-2Manhattan-medianYoY
[Click to expand]

Brooklyn
Brooklyn rental prices have been trending sharply higher to the point where the rental price spread between the two markets is at it’s lowest level every recorded (since 1/2008):

2014-2Brooklyn-medianYoY
[Click to expand]

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[Chart] The Manhattan-Brooklyn Median Rental Price Smackdown

March 15, 2014 | 1:57 pm | delogo | Charts |

2014-2MBmedianspread

The rental price spread between Brooklyn and Manhattan is narrowing. At $210, the month of February saw the lowest differential between the median rental price of Manhattan and Brooklyn’s North and Northwest regions.

While Manhattan rents have leveled off, Brooklyn rents have continued to rise sharply – a combination of rising demand as well as a shift in the mix towards luxury rentals.

A decade ago, who would have thought we’d be talking about Brooklyn this way?

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Talking Rental Markets on Bloomberg TV’s ‘Street Smart’

March 14, 2014 | 5:54 pm | bloomberg_news_logo | Videos |

Had a great conversation with Trish Regan on her Bloomberg TV show “Street Smart” about the Manhattan and Brooklyn rental markets and rent versus buy. This was in connection with the February Elliman rental report we published earlier that day.

It was windy and 18 degrees outside so I think I look a bit disheveled. But always fun to connect with everyone at Bloomberg whenever I visit (and maintain my Foursquare mayorship of the “green room”).

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