Matrix Blog

Charts, Maps, Images, Infographics, Video

Bloomberg Markets Interview: July 10, 2018, Manhattan Housing Market

July 11, 2018 | 9:07 am | | TV, Videos |

I enjoyed my sit down with Vonnie Quinn and Shery Ahn on Bloomberg Markets yesterday. The discussion focused on the release of the Elliman Report: Q2-2018 Manhattan Sales that I have authored since 1994 and the Bloomberg story that covered it.

Tags: , , , , ,


Elliman Magazine Spring Edition – 5 Charts

April 15, 2018 | 4:10 pm | | Infographics |

Every seasonal edition, Douglas Elliman Real Estate asks me to provide a visual market update for their magazine in any 5 of the markets they cover nationwide. The following graphic is found in their latest Elliman Magazine.

Click on the following graphic to see my charts in all their majesty.

Tags:


The Full Nelson: Tax Reform Impact on Residential and Commercial Real Estate

January 28, 2018 | 9:03 pm | TV, Videos |

James Nelson, a commercial broker powerhouse who just moved from Cushman & Wakefield to Avison Young, came to my office and interviewed me on the new federal tax law and related subjects for his Globe Street blog column called “The Full Nelson“.


[click on image to watch interview]

He provided NYC sales volume data for all NYC boroughs but Staten Island – and I combined it with the residential data we collect to see how the real estate types compare side-by-side.


[click to expand]

Tags: , , , ,


2017: The Year The 2015 Manhattan Market Shift Became Conventional Wisdom

January 1, 2018 | 11:00 am | | Charts |

After controlling the Manhattan housing market for quite a while, sellers and landlords exchanged roles with buyers and tenants circa 2015.

After peaking in 3Q 2015, the market share of bidding wars fell by two thirds. Bidding wars remain more common at lower price points. After bottoming in the 3Q 2015, the market share of rentals with landlord concessions has expanded sharply due to high-end rental development over-building. But like the sales market, the oversupply remains at the upper end.

Aside

Sunday, December 31, 2017, was a trifecta of my New York Times Real Estate market insight goodness before the year ended:

Landlords and Sellers Adjust [New York Times: Calculator column]

Manhattan Prices Stable in 2017, Even as Luxury Takes a Breather [New York Times: Big Ticket column]

Ditching the Tub [New York Times]

Tags: , ,


One57 Flip Analysis From Manhattan’s Peak New Development

November 15, 2017 | 4:47 pm | | Articles |

For those of you that read my weekly Housing Notes, you’ll know I refer to 2014 as “Peak New Development” for the Manhattan housing market. “Peak Luxury” works as a label too.

Bloomberg news broke the story that a $50M+ condo purchased in 2014 just sold at a foreclosure auction for $36,000,0000. There were five bidders. It’s been the fourth resale since the market peaked and the sixth overall – so I created a graphic of all the resales to show how they fared before and after the 2014 “peak.”


The Bloomberg story (that I got to chime in on) lays out the details of the One57 auction sale: One57 Foreclosure Shatters Price Dreams at Billionaires’ Tower

The story reached #1 as the most read on the 350k± Bloomberg Terminals worldwide yesterday.


It is important to remember that there are still a fair amount of units remaining that are priced at 2014 levels. Extell, the developer, has their work cut out for them to compete with current market conditions.

While One57 is a symbolic poster child for the new dev phenomenon, it is not a proxy for the entire new development market. Some projects were priced more reasonably at the peak, hence they haven’t fallen as much. In addition, the quality and design of each project can vary greatly. One thing is clear – since the 2014 peak, investors don’t have the same potential for big and fast returns on flips – their initial strategy was to buy early and realize instant equity as the sponsor increased the offering prices. That scenario no longer applies. Since the market has more choices for buyers now than it did back during peak, One57 is no longer seen as a “new” building like it was back then.

CNBC picked up the story – My firm and I get a shoutout during the conversation on Sqawkbox which was pretty cool.

Luxury condo in One57 tower sold in New York City’s biggest ever foreclosure auction from CNBC.

And here’s the transcript on yesterday’s PBS Nightly Business Report show (owned by CNBC) with the shoutout that is making the rounds.

Tags: , , ,


On Bloomberg TV: What’d You Miss? 10-5-2017

October 5, 2017 | 8:25 pm | | TV, Videos |

I had a fun conversation on Bloomberg Television with Scarlet Fu, Joe Weisenthal and Julia Chatterley. We were discussing the results of our research behind the Elliman Report: Manhattan Sales 3Q17 that was just released. Here is the Bloomberg story on the report results.

Here’s a portion of the interview.

If you’d like to see the whole segment, my interview starts at the 48:40 mark although I really like the format and the hosts so you might want to watch the whole show.

Tags: , ,


Real Estate ChartArt in Elliman Magazine’s Fall 2017 Issue

September 18, 2017 | 3:12 pm | | Charts |

Douglas Elliman Real Estate just published their fall issue. I created the content for pages 208-209 and I think it looks pretty snazzy (and interesting).

Click on image below to expand.

EllimanMag

Tags:


Vancouver’s Epic Real Estate Boom, Visualized

September 9, 2017 | 3:30 pm | Infographics |

The following is a housing related infographic on steroids from Visual Capitalist.

Visual Capitalist

Tags: ,


VIDEO Nightly Business Report: U.S. Luxury Market Trends

August 6, 2017 | 7:54 pm | TV, Videos |

Diana Olick of CNBC interviewed me on the reason behind the luxury market uptick as a companion piece to her story on the luxury report released by Redfin.

The luxury real estate story starts at 20:58 into the broadcast:


Tags: , , , , ,


Westchester to Manhattan Commute Time by Housing Cost

April 7, 2017 | 10:34 am | | Infographics |

Because I’m a little behind, the awesome infographic below by Michael Kolomatsky appeared in the New York Times real estate section a few weeks ago: How Much Is Your House Worth Per Minute?.

My original version covering Fairfield County was so popular they wanted me to do recurring versions. This one was much harder since there wasn’t an obvious “sweet spot” but the concept was the same. And best of all, it’s pretty darn cool.

Tags: , ,


NYT Calculator Chart: The Resale Pendulum Swings Toward Middle

January 21, 2017 | 2:50 pm | | Charts |

I love the way the NYT Real Estate section handled the data from our Elliman Report series to present the Manhattan resale market.

2017-1-22NYTcalculator

I added my chart on bidding wars below – falling as supply enters the market, causing resale prices to soften.

4qoverlistmanhattan

Tags: , , , ,


John Burns Has It Wrong, Luxury Home Sales Are Not Increasing

December 11, 2016 | 8:56 pm |

Last week a newsletter from John Burns Consulting got big SEO points by exclaiming that Wall Street Has It Wrong: Luxury Home Sales Increasing. Normally his firm is a good source of housing research, but this time they missed the mark on New York City, even when using facts.

While facts are provided and luxury sales are rising in markets like DC, there is a lack of proper context and this is a challenge that national analysts face when looking at specific market subsets. In this analysis, the luxury market was arbitrarily defined as having a $600,000 threshold. In a number of high cost housing markets on the following chart, their luxury threshold is equivalent to the entry or middle market, which I agree, is booming.

I took a look at markets I report on: Kings County (Brooklyn) and Manhattan. Their respective median sales prices of $735,000 and $1,073,750 are higher than $600,000. The John Burns definition for luxury would include more than half of these respective housing markets.

jbc-yoysalesabove600k

Besides the random threshold selection, their reasons seem to be weak. This list of common perceptions that would explain our underestimate of the strength of the luxury sales market are provided by them. I provide a subsequent clarification for each.

1. New disclosure laws. Foreign-buyer activity has slowed in two high-profile markets, Manhattan and Miami, due to threat of enforcement of new disclosure laws that began in 2016.

The market in both of these markets actually slowed sharply well before the new disclosure laws were in place. And foreign buyer participation in NYC has long been over-hyped.

2. High-profile Florida second-home markets. High-priced homes have indeed slowed in two of the highest-profile second home markets in the country, Naples (Collier County) and Palm Beach. These are two of the six counties where sales have declined.

Again county-wide prices set way below the actual luxury market may be the problem. Within Palm Beach County, I cover Palm Beach and the luxury market starts just below $5 million. In arguably the most expensive city in this county, the median price for all property types is just below their $600,000 luxury threshold.

3. Fortune article on Greenwich, CT. The sales slowdown in high-profile Greenwich, CT, was featured in Fortune magazine. The article included some very misleading headlines about a national luxury slowdown that were supported only by the fact that prices have appreciated 5% at the high end compared to more appreciation at lower prices.

This is an odd interpretation of the Greenwich market. I track this market in my research, live near it and have relatives that live there. This Fortune article was not misleading. Prices have not appreciated 5% at the Greenwich high end and $600,000 might not even buy you a starter home there. In fact, their luxury market has still not recovered from housing bubble.

4. Increased $1 million new-home supply. New-home sales have slowed in a few new-home markets due to a surge in competitive supply. Coupling this surge in supply, builders have pushed prices too high in comparison to the resale competition due to rising costs.

Why is this perception wrong? Excess or rising luxury supply is apparent across the 28 markets I research.

5. Improving entry-level sales. Entry-level sales are also improving at a faster rate than higher-priced home sales. Indeed, the market for lower-priced homes is stronger, but that does not mean that luxury sales are struggling.

True, but I think the disconnect is just the opposite. The luxury market is soft so many market participants assume the entry level is soft as well and yet it is seeing heavy sales volume.

Since housing across the U.S. is softer at the top, Wall Street looks like they have been correct about luxury. Placing a uniform threshold across a slew of different U.S. housing markets doesn’t tell us anything. Stick to specifics since that’s where you provide solid research.

Tags: ,