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Bloomberg View Column: Housing’s Misleading Health Indicator

November 30, 2014 | 11:00 am | BloombergViewlogoGray | Charts |

BVlogo

Read my latest Bloomberg View column Housing’s Misleading Health Indicator. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

The National Association of Realtors will release its monthly U.S. existing home sales report tomorrow. Among other things, the report includes what’s known as the absorption rate, or how many months it would take to sell all inventory at the current sales pace. This report and the media coverage around it will inevitably provide the well-worn insight that when the rate is less than six months, housing is “healthy”…

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Bloomberg View Column: Housing Bust Wasn’t About the House

November 30, 2014 | 9:00 am | BloombergViewlogoGray | Charts |

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Read my latest Bloomberg View column Housing Bust Wasn’t About the House. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

Unless you live in a cave, you’re no doubt familiar with the outlines of the housing bust that marked the beginning of the financial crisis: Real-estate prices plunged, people lost their homes, banks went under and the economy tumbled into a recession. We are still grappling with the hangover…

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[Three Cents Worth #273 NY] Three Cents Worth: No Relief In Sight For New York Renters

November 29, 2014 | 8:45 pm | curbed |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Before the tryptophan kicks in on Thursday, I thought I’d present the rental market trends for Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens coverage in another way. Because of seasonality, I tend to rely on median rental price compared to the same period a year ago. I applied a 90-day moving average as a trend line for each of the markets to help show where these markets seem to be headed…

3cw11-25-14
[click to expand chart]


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Three Cents Worth: No Relief In Sight For New York Renters [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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[Three Cents Worth #272 NY] The Cost Of Your Doorman Keeps Rising

November 29, 2014 | 8:30 pm | curbed | Columns |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Having that doorman just got more expensive. The difference between the average rental of a building with and without a doorman was at its widest point since we began to track this metric in 2007. The average rental price in a doorman building was $4,915, up 17.8 percent over the past 7 years and the highest recorded over this period. The average rental price in a non-doorman building was $3,461, up a more modest 5.8 percent over the same period. The difference between the two rental types resulted in an eight-year high of $1,645 per month…

3cw11-18-14
[click to expand chart]


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: The Cost Of Your Doorman Keeps Rising [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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[Three Cents Worth #271 NY] How New York’s Average Sales Price Broke the $1 Million Mark

November 4, 2014 | 4:00 pm | curbed | Columns |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Although it has been a little more than a month since the third quarter ended, I thought I’d show that the average sales price of the five boroughs in aggregate broke the $1 million threshold for the first time, to a record $1,040,516…

3cw11-4-14
[click to expand chart]


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: How New York’s Average Sales Price Broke the $1 Million Mark [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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[Three Cents Worth #270 NY] What Is the Value of a Central Park View?

October 30, 2014 | 8:50 pm | curbed | Columns |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

While there is an obsession with views in the Manhattan market and it is one of the drivers of the tall tower phenomenon, there are a bunch of moving parts associated with it. We looked at the last two years of closed sales (to get enough data) on the four borders of Central Park, comparing the average price per square foot of co-op and condo apartments with direct views of the park—including both those above and below the treeline—and those with city views…

cpwviews
[click to expand chart]


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: What Is the Value of a Central Park View? [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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[Manhattan Absorption] September 2014 – While All Markets Cool, Sub $3M Remains Brisk

October 4, 2014 | 3:27 pm | Charts |

9-2014Manhattan [click to expand]

Thoughts A noticeable downshift from last year yet the market remains brisk. Nearly all price segments are showing slower absorption rates with more weakness seen above the $3M threshold (roughly where the luxury market begins i.e. top 10%).

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

September 2014 v September 2013
9-201409-2013 [click images to expand]

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. (I got tired of the red/gray look in 9-2014 so I changed it) The blue/red line shows the 10-year quarterly average for context. The pink/orange line represents the overall average absorption rate of the most recently completed month for that market area. 

Definition Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the current annualized pace of sales activity in our market report series.


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts [Miller Samuel]

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Bloomberg View Column: When $7 Million Is Average for Manhattan

October 3, 2014 | 12:05 pm | BloombergViewlogoGray | Charts |

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Read my latest Bloomberg View column When $7 Million Is Average for Manhattan. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

It’s pretty much universal knowledge that Manhattan real estate is expensive. What isn’t so well known is what’s happening at the top of the market: Price increases have been crazy.

Ever since the financial crisis, housing prices for the most-expensive 10 percent of the Manhattan market have increased more than 15 percent. Compare that with the modest 2.5 percent gain for the remaining 90 percent of the market….

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A Century Later: Manhattan Is Less Crowded

September 27, 2014 | 12:26 pm |

manhattandensity

The density of the Five Points in 1910 was absolutely incredible.  The 2010 population density is much more balanced across the island.

NYU’s Marion Institute of Urban Management is offering a free seminar at the New York Public Library called “The Rise and Fall of Manhattan Density” to explain how this happened.

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[Manhattan Absorption] August 2014 The $3M-$5M Market Slows Down

September 13, 2014 | 6:15 pm | Charts |

8-2014Manhattan [click to expand]

Thoughts Not a big difference from last year. Sub-$3M is generally very tight with not much variation between price categories in each region. There isn’t much difference in the $10M+ market. Condos are slower than co-ops overall, but not by much. The difference is being seen in the $5M to $10M, which is moving more slowly moving than it was a year ago.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

August 2014 v 2013
8-201408-2013 [click images to expand]

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. (I got tired of the red/gray look in 9-2014 so I changed it) The blue/red line shows the 10-year quarterly average for context. The pink/orange line represents the overall average absorption rate of the most recently completed month for that market area. 

Definition Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the current annualized pace of sales activity in our market report series.


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts [Miller Samuel]

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