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Curbed: 3 Cents Worth

[Three Cents Worth #269 NY] Charting A Decade of Manhattan Inventory

August 31, 2014 | 4:09 pm | curbed | Columns |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column I posted a few weeks ago on @CurbedNY:

As summer comes to a close and many have checked out until Labor Day, I thought I’d try another GIF animation (after the jump!) to illustrate the long fall of inventory (I’m on the “pronounced like ‘Jif’ peanut butter” team, as is the format’s inventor). August generally represents the annual low for inventory (even though fourth quarter of 2013 was quarterly record bottom, August 2013 was the record monthly bottom). I thought I’d show the last decade worth of inventory and provide some context to how low inventory actually is…



3cw8-19-14
[click to expand chart]


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Charting A Decade of Manhattan Inventory [Curbed]

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[Three Cents Worth #268 NY] Units In New Developments Grow Larger

August 31, 2014 | 3:57 pm | curbed | Columns |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column that I posted a few weeks ago on @CurbedNY:

For this chart, I looked at a little more than a decade of Manhattan closed sales by square footage, breaking out the market by new development sales and re-sales. During this period, the average square footage of a new development sale was 1,382—15.6 percent larger than the 1,195 average square footage of a re-sale. However, new development sales size showed significant volatility as developers adapted to the changing market. The underlying driver of volatility is the quest to achieve the highest price per square foot premium a developer realizes by creating larger contiguous space. As a result, the much chronicled “micro-unit” phenomenon falls short and can’t become mainstream under current market conditions without external incentives (i.e. government). The math doesn’t work…



3cwNY8-12-14
[click to expand charts]


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Units In New Developments Grow Larger [Curbed]

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[Three Cents Worth #267 NY] NYC Sets New Record Average Sales Price

August 5, 2014 | 3:17 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Although our NYC market reports only cover Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens, I also track Staten Island and The Bronx for fun. For the second quarter 2014 NYC analysis, I observed two new records:

1. The average sales price for NYC residential real estate (co-ops, condos and 1-3 family sales) reached a record $975,441 (pink line).

2. The average sales price for NYC residential real estate excluding Manhattan reached a record $542,216 (orange line).



2q14NYC-ASPspread [click to expand charts]


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: NYC Sets New Record Average Sales Price [Curbed]

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[Three Cents Worth #266 NY] Inventory Is Rising, Just Not Enough

May 27, 2014 | 2:01 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

I took a look at Manhattan’s climb out of the depths of the inventory void, and things are changing, but at a glacial pace. On a monthly basis, inventory bottomed last August (but it boomed in the fourth quarter on a quarterly basis). Perhaps the only significant reason inventory has begun to rise is because housing prices are beginning to ramp up, and sales are below last year’s pace. Sellers with new found equity have begun to list their properties. However, rising inventory remains inadequate against demand and the imbalance between supply and demand remains significant—and forget about the new development boom, that’s not going to help the overall market. The above chart shows a long view of the monthly Manhattan co-op and condo peak and trough and provides context on how low current supply actually is….

[My post title was originally "Biggest Inventory Rise in Decade, Just Not Enough" but wasn't used - the crack Curbed staff didn't think it was catchy enough.]

3cwNY5-21-14a
3cwNY5-21-14b
[click to expand charts]


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Inventory Is Rising, Just Not Enough [Curbed]

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[Three Cents Worth #265 NY] Gap Between Starter, Luxury Markets Grows

May 14, 2014 | 1:48 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

I thought I’d bring out another way to measure the market since we’re over-obsessed with “luxury.” The starter market needs more analysis since affordability is now a key topic of conversation across the U.S. right now. For the more than 20 years of releasing market reports, and in all the other markets we analyze, I have always defined “luxury” as the top 10 percent of sales in a given period. For the “starter” market, I inverted the analysis and defined it as the lowest 10 percent of all sales in a given period. I’ve parsed out the past three years of Manhattan apartment sales by quarter and measured the year-over-year change in average sales price for the luxury and starter markets. I selected “average” over “median” to suss out more volatility…

[My post title was originally "For Starters, Luxury Manhattan Is Further Away" but wasn't used - the crack Curbed staff didn't think it was catchy enough.]

3cwNY5-14-14
[click to expand chart]



My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Gap Between Starter, Luxury Markets Grows [Curbed]

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[Three Cents Worth #264 NY] Tracking How High People Buy In Manhattan

March 25, 2014 | 4:59 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Spectators and participants in the Manhattan housing market have been burning a lot of calories talking about views, something the super luxury new development projects have been marketing as a key feature. I thought I’d look back over time to at what the average floor level of closed co-op and condo sales by quarter, and see if there is a pattern. I sifted through six years of data (note to self for rainy day: go back 25 years and break out condos and co-ops). While I’ve analyzed the value of floor level in Manhattan here and here before, I’ve never trended floor level and didn’t quite know what to expect…

[My post title was originally "Manhattan Rebound Not Because of Dizzying Heights" but wasn't Curbed staff didn't think it was catchy enough, ed.]

3cwNY3-25-14
[click to expand chart]



My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Tracking How High People Buy In Manhattan [Curbed]

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[Three Cents Worth #263 NY] Do Wall Street Bonuses Affect NYC Sales?

March 18, 2014 | 4:13 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

According to the 5/25 rule, the ratio of New York City jobs in the securities industry and the income they account for is 5 to 25: approximately 5 percent of NYC jobs come from the securities industry and they account for about 1/4 of personal income. With such a large, and disproportionate market share of NYC income, Wall Street has long been considered a lynchpin of the NYC real estate economy and perhaps most strongly aligned with Manhattan.

Still, it is a stretch to associate the ebb and flow as a predictor of future gains and losses in Manhattan housing prices, especially when considering deferred compensation. (Also, many Wall Streeters are getting paid from income deferred from a few years ago when times weren’t as good.) But it’s fun to chart. Especially after last week’s announcement by the State Comptroller of a 15.1 percent increase in both the Wall Street bonus pool and on a per person basis…

3cwNY3-18-14
[click to expand chart]



My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Do Wall Street Bonuses Affect NYC Sales? [Curbed]

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[Three Cents Worth #262 NY] Manhattan Inventory Keeps On Rising

March 14, 2014 | 11:49 am | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

It’s that time of year when sellers begin to introduce listing inventory to the “Spring Market”—when sales volume and upward price pressure are generally at their annual peak. I started working on a chart after someone mentioned they noticed a lot of new townhouses being added to inventory. Manhattan townhouse inventory has been rising since the beginning of 2014, showing a similar pattern to co-ops and condos. From the end of December 2013 to end of February 2014, townhouse listing inventory is up 12.8 percent, while co-op listings are up 11.1 percent and condos are up 20.2 percent. To provide some context for these numbers, I expanded the chart to include a 14-year monthly series breaking out co-ops and condos in addition to townhouses…

3cwNY3-11-14
[click to expand chart]



My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan Inventory Keeps On Rising [Curbed]

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[Three Cents Worth #261 NY] Inventory Rising At Fastest Pace in 4 Years

March 5, 2014 | 6:00 am | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

After an insanely chaotic and active 2013, it’s probably time to think about how 2014 is shaping up inventory-wise. At the end of last year, I was of the opinion that listing inventory was at or near a bottom and we would see some increase in supply but not nearly enough to match demand. And so far that has been the story. In this week’s column, I took a look at the first eight weeks of each year going back to 2009. Inventory always rises at the beginning of the year as sellers anticipate the spring market and skip over the December doldrums. I’d go back further in time, but I only began tracking inventory on a weekly basis in addition to monthly right after Lehman collapsed (I had more time on my hands). This analysis looks at overall Manhattan inventory at all price points—clearly there are nuances not reflected, i.e. luxury listings at historical averages while the remainder at chronic lows, so relax…

3cwNY3-4-14
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My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Inventory Rising At Fastest Pace in 4 Years [Curbed]

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[Three Cents Worth #260 NY] Looking At Manhattan’s Mortgage History

February 25, 2014 | 3:23 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

In this week’s column, I thought I’d look at something near and dear to our economic hearts: tracking rental versus mortgage payments in Manhattan. Above, you’ll find Manhattan’s median sales price for co-ops and condos, as well as median rental prices, plotted against a theoretical monthly mortgage payment. At first I was using this to present the rent-or-buy decision, but the visual became a little more than that.

For the mortgage payment estimation, I used generic defaults of 20 percent down and 30-year fixed Freddie Mac mortgage rates using median sales prices as the anchor—understanding that a 20 percent down payment has not been a constant over the past 20 years. Although I’m only tracking principal and interest on the payment, I’m not factoring in the tax deduction either, so the offset is somewhat reasonable in this simple visual. Here’s what I found:…

3cwNY2-25-14
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My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Looking At Manhattan’s Mortgage History [Curbed]

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