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Manhattan-Brooklyn Rental Price Spread Widens to $500

June 12, 2014 | 3:15 pm | | Charts |

2014-5Brooklyn-Manhspread
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The report we author for Douglas Elliman covering the Manhattan/Brooklyn rental markets was published today.

Back in February many observers of the Manhattan and Brooklyn rental markets were saying: “The Spread is Dead, Long Live the Spread!” Ok not really.

But there was a lot made of the fact that the difference in median rental price between the two markets narrowed to $210 from as much as $1,125 in 2008. Manhattan rental prices had stabilized at the end of last year as Brooklyn continued to see sharp gains.

But that was as close as it got. Since the beginning of the year, month-over-month Manhattan rental prices began to rise as Brooklyn started to level off.

Manhattan rents cooled last year as the sales market poached demand from record volume. I saw the decline was temporary. The excess purchase activity from several years of pent-up demand has largely been absorbed allowing rents to begin climbing again.

Brooklyn rents are beginning to level off as a result of all the new rental development entering the market soaking up demand.

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May 2014 Report: Manhattan and Brooklyn Rentals Swap Roles

June 12, 2014 | 1:29 pm | | Reports |

Rental_0514 Today Douglas Elliman published the Manhattan/Brooklyn rental report that I author. This monthly report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994 (20 years!). We discontinued the quarterly rental report series but still present the information in our aggregate database.

MANHATTAN
– Median rental price increased to the highest level in more than 5 years.
– After softening in late 2013 with intensive competition from the sales market, median rental prices have trended higher since the beginning of 2014.
– Although the market share of landlord concessions edged higher over the year ago level last year, they have fallen sharply from 13.1% in January.
– Vacancy rate slipped nominally from same period last year, hovering near multi-year lows.
– New rental activity fell reflecting the increased likelihood that tenants would renew their leases as a result of limited alternatives to increased affordability.

BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest Regions]
– Median rental price increased from the same period last year but has showed some stability since the beginning of the year.
– 2 and 3-bed apartments showed weaker price trends with the addition of new rental housing stock and intense competition from the purchase market.
– There was a sharp drop in new rentals from the same month a year ago as more tenants were resigned to sign their leases at time of renewal.
– Although marketing times expanded slightly, negotiability dropped sharply reflecting the ongoing tight market conditions.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

MANHATTAN For the third consecutive month, median rental price increased above the prior year level. Median rental price was $3,300, 3.1% above the same period last year and the highest level reached since early 2009. After weakening in the second half of 2013 from intensive competition from the sales market, median rental prices have generally trended higher since the beginning of the year. The remaining rental price indicators were mixed. Average rental price slipped 1.2% to $3,902 and average rental price per square foot increased 7.1% respectively from the same month last year…

BROOKLYN Median rental price increased 8.6% to $2,800 from the same month last year, yet remained essentially unchanged from the prior month. Since the beginning of the year, median rental price has showed some stability on a month-over-month basis…

The Elliman Report: 5-2014 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 5-2014 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Douglas Elliman]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Brooklyn Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Quarterly) [Miller Samuel]

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Demanding More: terms of sale are now as important as the price

May 18, 2014 | 7:00 pm | | Articles |

demandingmoreEMarticle
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Sellers and their real estate brokers are more focused on the qualifications of the buyer than ever before. “Flexibility of terms,” “limited contingencies,” and “paying with cash” have become well-used phrases in the current home-buying process.

Here’s an article I penned for the current issue of Elliman Magazine. It’s about the concept that the terms of a sale are now just as important as the price.

The latest issue of Elliman Magazine, including my article, as well as the most recent market reports we author are available in the Elliman App.

AppStorelogo


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[Infographic] Manhattan and Brooklyn Rents Continue to Rise

May 17, 2014 | 8:55 pm | | Infographics |

Here’s the latest infographic from Douglas Elliman covering the Manhattan & Brooklyn rental market reports for April 2014.

April2014 Manhattan Brooklyn Rentals


Manhattan Home Sales Are NOT 80% All-Cash (They Are 45%)

May 17, 2014 | 11:04 am | | Favorites |

Actually, overall Manhattan Home Sales are 45% All-Cash. I want to make sure that the 80% number doesn’t become embedded in our housing market mindset.

1q14manhattanCASH
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I’ll explain.

Recently a friend passed along a post in the Washington Post titled: 8 in 10 Manhattan home sales are all-cash and my jaw dropped. The author, who I am a fan of, got this information from Realtytrac, who I am also a fan of, but I knew it was either wrong or misinterpreted.

Over the years I’ve played around with NYC mortgage data, usually incomplete and very dirty, from various sources and have combined that with frontline feedback from our own experience as appraisers, as well as from real estate brokers and lenders. I had come to the conclusion that roughly half of Manhattan home sales (co-op, condo & single family) were probably all-cash and condos are definitely well over 50%. I used the logic that foreign and high-end buyers are a large part of the all-cash market, especially within the new development space. And it makes sense – while condo end loan financing is tight, new development condo end loan financing is beyond tight.

The reason the Realtytrac 80% figure jumped out at me was the fact that co-ops account for about 60% of sales and have the highest concentration of entry level and middle class demographics in Manhattan. I was very skeptical that virtually all the market-majority co-op buyers were paying all-cash, especially in the tepid economy we are stuck with.

So I reached out to Daren Blomquist, Vice President at RealtyTrac who is often the point person on their data releases. I indicated that the 80% figure seemed off and wondered if it excluded the co-op market. It didn’t. However even an 80% all-cash share for only single family and condo sales seemed like a stretch. He said he would look into it and within an hour they could see an issue with their co-op data feed. They were already working on the issue (and why I like Realtytrac). He shared their 1Q14 Manhattan information (I omitted the suspect co-op data) and here are the key numbers:

Their Results
All-Cash Condo Sales 60.78%
All-Cash Single Family Sales 73.08%

I came up with a new methodology, which looked at the ratios seen in Douglas Elliman sales – the largest real estate brokerage company in Manhattan – with a sales mix is generally consistent with the overall market mix and applied their results to the overall market, and I saw this:

Our Results
All-Cash Co-ops 36% (no revised Realtytrac results yet)
All-Cash Condos 58% (similar to Realtytrac’s 60.78%)

I didn’t have the single family (fee simple) results compiled so I went with Realtytrac’s 73% because: their fee simple (condo) data was consistent with ours, the single family market is skewed much higher price-wise than the condo market (i.e. skewing towards cash buyers) and the single family market share is very small. In fact the market share is so small that the overall 45% all-cash ratio wouldn’t change unless I dropped the single family market share down to 6% from 73% but even then the overall cash ratio would only drop to 44% from 45% – so you get my point (my apologies for the excessive wonkiness on this but it was necessary).

As a result and represented in the table at the top of this post, it is reasonable to say that the overall Manhattan all-cash home sale market in 1Q 2014 was 45% of all residential sales. Got it?

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Manhattan/Brooklyn Rents Continue to Rise

May 15, 2014 | 10:24 am | | Reports |

Rental_0414

Douglas Elliman published the Manhattan/Brooklyn rental report that I author today. This monthly report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994. We discontinued the quarterly rental report series but still present the information in our aggregate database.

MANHATTAN
– Second highest median rental price reached in over 5 years (highest was one month spike to $3,695 in Feb-09).
– Second consecutive month with year-over-year rise in median rent after 6 consecutive monthly declines.
– The vacancy rate was the lowest for an April in 4 years, falling to 1.45% from 1.58% a year ago.
– Market share of landlord concessions was up slightly from last year to 6.8%, but down from recent January peak of 13.1%.
– The number of new rentals slipped 6.2%, as landlords and tenants have remained more in sync for the 3rd consecutive month.

BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest Regions]
– Median rental price up year-over-year for the 11th consecutive monthly increase.
– New rental activity surged 57.1% as tenants pushed back against rising rents at time of renewal.
– Marketing times and negotiability expanded from a year ago, but remained stable over the past 3 months.
– Studios showed the largest rise in median rental price. 1-bedrooms and 2-bedrooms also increased.
– Brooklyn median rent was $442 less than Manhattan median rent, up from $210 record low in February.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

MANHATTAN Median rental price increased 1.6% to $3,247 from the same period last year to the second highest level in more than 5 years. This was the second consecutive year-over-year monthly increase after 6 consecutive months of decline, largely attributable to a higher than normal sales volume in 2013. The robust sales market provided competition, poaching some rental demand as “fencesitters” concerned about rising mortgage rates opted to purchase. Average rental price rose 5.1% to $4,008, the second time the $4,000 threshold was exceeded in the past 4 years. The overall rise in rental prices was largely seen in the studio and 1-bedroom markets with year-over-year gains of 4.2% and 1.4% respectively…

BROOKLYN The 11th consecutive increase, median rental price increased 3.9% to $2,805 from the same month last year, but fell 3.3% from the prior month record of $2,900. Average rental price followed a similar pattern rising 6.4% to $3,209 over the same period. Despite the rising trend, month over month rental price trends for all indicators have showed relative stability since the beginning of the year…

The Elliman Report: 4-2014 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4-2014 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Douglas Elliman]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Brooklyn Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Quarterly) [Miller Samuel]

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[Infographic] 1Q14 Hamptons Snaps Back from Fiscal Cliff Lull

April 24, 2014 | 12:34 pm | | Infographics |

Douglas Elliman created another infographic for the Elliman Report series. This time it covers the 1Q14 Hamptons Sales Report that we author.

1q14infographicelliman-hamptons


[Infographic] Getting Graphic in South Florida in 1Q 2014

April 18, 2014 | 4:30 pm | | Infographics |

Here’s a jumbo infographic from Douglas Elliman covering the findings of the four market reports in South Florida we prepare for them. Thank goodness Matrix can handle super tall images.

1q14infographicelliman-florida


[Ready, Set, Download] South Florida Market Reports 1Q 2014

April 18, 2014 | 4:01 pm | | Reports |

Our 4 comprehensive reports for Douglas Elliman on the residential sales markets for Miami, Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach this week.

Click on each report to download!

Miami_1Q14

MIAMI
With the Miami housing market well into the third year of its recovery, rising prices have begun to pull listing inventory into the market. Median sales price increased 16.1% to $244,000, the highest point reached since 2008. Average sales price jumped 19.1% to $461,374 over last year to a 5 year high and average price per square foot exceeded $305 per square foot for the first time in 6 years. Listing inventory bottomed in the second quarter of 2013, trending higher, up 15.2% to 12,664 from the prior year quarter. Along with the rise in supply, demand continued to rise. The number of sales rose 3.9% to 5,133 from the prior year quarter, to the highest first quarter total in the 8 years this metric has been tracked. The market share of distressed sales, once the majority of the market, continued to decline. Excluding short sales and foreclosures, market share rose to 69.4%, the highest level reached in the 4 years this metric has been tracked. The number of distressed listings and distressed With the Miami housing market well into the third year of its recovery, rising prices have begun to pull listing inventory into the market. Median sales price increased 16.1% to $244,000, the highest point reached since 2008. Average sales price jumped 19.1% to $461,374 over last year to a 5 year high and average price per square foot exceeded $305 per square foot for the first time in 6 years…

BocaRaton_1Q14

BOCA RATON
CONDO Median sales price surged 16.3% to $150,000 and average sales price declined 8.8% to $229,569 respectively from the prior year quarter. Listing discount, the percent difference between the list price at time of contract and the sales price, rose to 7% from 3.8% in the prior year quarter, but fell from 7.7% in the prior quarter…

SINGLE FAMILY Median sales price jumped 19.4% to $370,000 and average sales price rose 5.3% to $528,616 respectively from the prior year quarter. Listing discount edged up to 6.9% from 6.1% in the prior year quarter, as sellers were slightly more optimistic when determining their listing price…

FtLauderdale_1Q14

FORT LAUDERDALE
CONDO Median sales price jumped 19.8% to $255,000 from the same quarter last year, the highest level reached since 2008. Average sales price followed the same pattern, rising 23.9% to $379,391 over the same period also reaching a 5 year high.

SINGLE FAMILY The average time to market a property was 91 days, essentially unchanged from 90 days in the prior year quarter. Listing discount, the percentage difference between the list price at time of contract and the sales price, jumped to 8.1% from 4.5% as sellers pressed list prices higher than market trends support.

PalmBeach_1Q14

PALM BEACH
CONDO There were 68 sales during the quarter, 25.9% more than the same period last year. Listing inventory fell 16.9% to 360 over the same period. As a result the absorption rate, the number of months to sell all inventory at the current pace of sales, fell 34% to 15.9 months from the same period last year. The faster market pace pushed down days on market, the number of days from the last price change to the contract date, by 10 days to an average of 182 days.

SINGLE FAMILY Median sales price increased 10.7% to $3,100,000 from the prior year quarter to the highest first quarter reached since 2009. Average sales price jumped 56.7% to $6,450,093 over the same period. The average square footage of a sale was 5,261, up 20.9% from the prior year quarter.

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Ready, Set, Download: 1Q 2014 Market Reports for Brooklyn, Queens and Westchester/Putnam Sales

April 12, 2014 | 1:49 pm | |

We released 3 reports for Douglas Elliman on the sales markets for Brooklyn, Queens and Westchester/Putnam this week. Click on the reports to download!

Brooklyn_1Q_2014 BROOKLYN The Brooklyn housing market was characterized by more modest price growth and chronic lack of inventory, holding back sales growth. Median sales price expanded 1% to $520,000 from the same period last year and the highest first quarter result in 6 years. Average sales price grew 7.3% to $681,182 over the same period. Co-ops posted the largest year-over-year gain in median sales price, rising 12.2% to $340,000 but lost 2.1% of the market share. Condos remained essentially unchanged over the year with a $625,000 median sales price and market share edged 1.6% higher. The 1-3 family median sales price increased 5.1% to $588,733 and market share increased a nominal 0.5%…

Queens_1Q_2014 QUEENS The first quarter Queens housing market was a period of rising prices after an extended period of stability, declining inventory, and rising sales. The bottom of the multi-year decline of listing inventory may have been reached in the fourth quarter of 2013. Although the first quarter listing inventory increased 7% from the prior quarter bottom to 5,617, it was the second lowest level recorded in this report series since 2005 and 13.5% below prior year levels. The number of sales jumped 32.8% to 3,156 from the prior year quarter, the highest first quarter total in 6 years. The combination of declining inventory and rising sales led to a faster market pace. The absorption rate, the number of months to sell all listing inventory at the current pace of sales, fell to 5.3 months, less than half the 11.2 month average over the past 5 years…

Westchester_1Q_2014 WESTCHESTER The Westchester housing market saw the most first quarter sales in 7 years, the highest median sales price in 6 years and initial signs that the trend of declining inventory may be ending. There were 1,525 sales in the first quarter, up 13.1% from the prior year quarter and the most first quarter sales since the same period 7 years ago. Listing inventory fell 3.7% to 5,378 from the same period last year and for the 8th consecutive quarter. With the rise in the number of sales and the decline in listing inventory, the pace of the market was faster. The monthly absorption rate, defined as the number of months to sell all inventory at the current pace of sales, fell by 1.8 months to 10.6 months from the prior year quarter…
PUTNAM After bottoming out two years ago, housing prices have generally trended higher as the number of sales expanded and inventory contracted. All price indicators posted gains from prior year levels. Median sales price increased 12.7% to $302,500 while average sales price rose 15.9% to $379,217 over the same period…

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[Infographic] Looking at the Manhattan and Brooklyn Rental Markets 3-2014

April 10, 2014 | 12:00 pm | | Infographics |

Entering the world of infographics, here are some highlights from our just released Elliman Report: Manhattan & Brooklyn Rentals 3-2014

ManhattanBrooklyn3-14INFOGRAPHIC


[Infographic] Manhattan Sales Market 1Q14

April 1, 2014 | 5:28 pm | | Infographics |

Here’s our first professional infographic of my market research for Douglas Elliman. It covers the just released Elliman Report: Manhattan Sales 1Q 2014. Here was my recent attempt at a hand-made infographic covering another topic using Excel.

Manhattan Market Report Infographic