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[Three Cents Worth #273 NY] Three Cents Worth: No Relief In Sight For New York Renters

November 29, 2014 | 8:45 pm | curbed |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Before the tryptophan kicks in on Thursday, I thought I’d present the rental market trends for Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens coverage in another way. Because of seasonality, I tend to rely on median rental price compared to the same period a year ago. I applied a 90-day moving average as a trend line for each of the markets to help show where these markets seem to be headed…

3cw11-25-14
[click to expand chart]


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Three Cents Worth: No Relief In Sight For New York Renters [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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3Q14 Manhattan Sales Market: Operating Just Below Record Levels

October 1, 2014 | 6:17 pm | delogo | Reports |

Manhattan_3Q14

Today Douglas Elliman published the Elliman Report on Manhattan Sales that I author. This quarterly report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994 (20 years!).

Key Points
- Sales fell below last year’s third quarter record but still 29% above decade quarterly average.
- Luxury market price gains outpaced the overall market.
- Inventory is up from last year’s low but still 18% below decade quarterly average.
- New development market share of closed sales was up from year ago level, but expected to rise sharply over next year.
- Highest market share of sales at or above list price in 6 years (49.2%).

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

Manhattan housing prices continued to rise as additional supply remained inadequate to meet demand. Bidding wars and a shift toward larger units applied additional upward pressure to rising price trends. Sharp gains in New York City employment, the continued influx of international investors and low mortgage rates have kept the market tight. A product of five years of pent-up demand and the fear of rising mortgage rates, sales volume fell short of prior year records. Marketing times and negotiability eased, as the market downshifted from last year’s frenetic pace. Luxury market price growth exceeded the overall market, while new development product targeted at the luxury segment continued to enter the market…

The Elliman Report: 3Q14 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Market Chart Gallery [Miller Samuel]


Adding Queens To Our Manhattan/Brooklyn Rental Report

July 14, 2014 | 9:12 am | delogo | Reports |

Rental_0614

We’ve expanded the Elliman rental report to include Queens this month and added additional metrics for Manhattan and Brooklyn.

MANHATTAN
- Prices increased for 4th consecutive month after year end lull.
- Median rent is at highest point in more than 5 years.
- The vacancy rate was lowest June in 5 years.
- Use of concessions continued to fall, now at nominal levels.
- Marketing times and negotiability continued to fall.
- Luxury market outperformed the overall market.

BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest, East Regions]
- Median rental price up year over year for 13 consecutive months.
- Rents hovering near record highs but have remained stable since beginning of year.
- New rentals surged indicating resistance to price increases at time of renewal.
- Nominal use of concessions by landlords.
- Overall market outperformed luxury market, price growth stronger in smaller units.
- Manhattan-Brooklyn rental price gap remained at $500, more than the $210 record low in February but less than half of 2008 level.

QUEENS
[Northwest Region]
- Median rental price year-over-year slipped after 4 consecutive monthly increases.
- Shift in mix to smaller units (60.2% share of 1-bedrooms) pulling down overall prices.
- Nearly half of the rental stock is located in new development buildings.
- Overall market outperformed luxury market, price growth stronger in smaller units.
- Marketing time slipped as listing discount remained nominal.


The Elliman Report [Miller Samuel]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery [Miller Samuel]


2Q14 Brings Mixed Regional Messages – Brooklyn, Queens and Westchester/Putnam Reports

July 14, 2014 | 8:53 am | delogo | Reports |

If you’ve been:

A. Pouring over state maps of pet ownership
B. Watching the World Cup
C. Watching the Tour de France
D. Fretting about the Russell Stover purchase

Then you may have missed last week’s market report releases for Brooklyn, Queens and Westchester/Putnam Reports. These are part of the report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994 (20 years!). The reports have a new look – hope you like them.

Click on graphics to open them.

Brooklyn_2Q_2014

BROOKLYN SALES MARKET Brooklyn housing prices continue to set new records, due to rising sales and low inventory. The median sales price of a Brooklyn residential property increased 4.5% to a record $575,000 from the same period last year. Average sales price also set a new record, rising 16.6% to $783,296 from the prior year quarter. Median sales price is now 6.5% above the $540,000 market peak reached in the third quarter of 2007 before the 2008 Lehman “tipping point.” Although this is the 7th consecutive quarter with year-over-year gains in median sales price, the first two quarters of 2014 posted smaller single-digit gains than the double-digit gains of the preceding 5 quarters…

Queens_2Q_2014

QUEENS SALES MARKET The Queens housing market took a breather after 6 consecutive quarters of rising sales. There were 2,404 sales in the second quarter, 3.6% less than the same period last year. Year to date, the number of sales remained 14.2% higher than the same period last year due to the sharp rise in first quarter sales activity. Despite the decline, listing inventory continued to fall for the 13th consecutive quarter. There were 5,892 listings at the end of the second quarter, 5.3% less than the same period last year. As a result of the combination of declining sales and falling inventory, the pace of the market remained stable…

Westchester_2Q_2014

WESTCHESTER/PUTNAM SALES MARKET Westchester single family contract activity was higher than prior year levels as severe winter weather conditions pushed first quarter pending sales into the second quarter. Despite the 16.7% decline in closed home sales, total contracts expanded 3.9% from the prior year quarter and jumped 51.9% from the prior quarter. The rise in contracts from first to second quarter was higher than the 35.5% average increase of the prior 2 years. Listing inventory expanded 7.9% to 3,905 rising from the low water mark set in 2013…


Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Market Chart Gallery [Miller Samuel]


2Q14 Manhattan Sales Market: More Supply, But Not Even Close to Enough

July 1, 2014 | 5:55 pm | delogo | Charts |

Manhattan_2Q_2014

Today Douglas Elliman published the Elliman Report on Manhattan Sales that I author. This quarterly report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994 (20 years!).

Incidentally, we are tweaking the visual aspects of this Elliman report series – we do this every few years. We added a dashboard to provide at-a-glance information but expanded and yet consolidated the text to be one comprehensive section. I expanded the size of the charts but kept the matrix tables just about the same. Since this is a labor of love and a work in progress, please feel free to send along suggestions.

Key Points
- Sales increased for the 7th consecutive quarter, but less at a lower rate than the 27.6% average quarterly increase of the prior 4 quarters.
- Median sales price for co-ops increased 9% as consumer sought out greater affordability as condos increased 0.8%.
- Inventory is up from last year’s near record low. The inventory bottom appears to have been reached in 4Q 2013.
- There were 45.9% listings that sold at or above list price, the largest market share in nearly 6 years.
- Luxury price increases out paced the overall market.
- Sellers are being both motivated and enabled to list as a result of rising prices.
- Mortgage lending remains significantly challenging to buyers.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

Manhattan housing prices continued to press higher, driven by low inventory and seven consecutive quarters of year-over-year sales growth. Mortgage rates have drifted lower, nearly returning to their prior year levels while the local economy has added jobs and international demand for product has been relentless. The luxury market showed the most price gains as more new development product has begun to close…

Here is some context on the lack of inventory [click each chart to expand]:

2q14Manhattan-inventorybyMonth

2q14Manhattan-inventorySPLIT


The Elliman Report: 2Q14 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel] Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel] Market Chart Gallery [Miller Samuel]


PIX11 TV Segment on Manhattan-Brooklyn Rental Report

June 13, 2014 | 8:28 pm | delogo | Videos |

pix11rentalreport
[click to play]

Got a call yesterday from John Ford, a reporter for PIX11 regarding the publication of Douglas Elliman’s Manhattan & Brooklyn Rental Report I author for Douglas Elliman.

He’s a very nice guy and really listened to and presented the key findings of the report. Luciane Serifovic, Elliman’s Director of Rentals made a couple of good points as well. Fun!

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May 2014 Report: Manhattan and Brooklyn Rentals Swap Roles

June 12, 2014 | 1:29 pm | delogo | Reports |

Rental_0514 Today Douglas Elliman published the Manhattan/Brooklyn rental report that I author. This monthly report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994 (20 years!). We discontinued the quarterly rental report series but still present the information in our aggregate database.

MANHATTAN
- Median rental price increased to the highest level in more than 5 years.
- After softening in late 2013 with intensive competition from the sales market, median rental prices have trended higher since the beginning of 2014.
- Although the market share of landlord concessions edged higher over the year ago level last year, they have fallen sharply from 13.1% in January.
- Vacancy rate slipped nominally from same period last year, hovering near multi-year lows.
- New rental activity fell reflecting the increased likelihood that tenants would renew their leases as a result of limited alternatives to increased affordability.

BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest Regions]
- Median rental price increased from the same period last year but has showed some stability since the beginning of the year.
- 2 and 3-bed apartments showed weaker price trends with the addition of new rental housing stock and intense competition from the purchase market.
- There was a sharp drop in new rentals from the same month a year ago as more tenants were resigned to sign their leases at time of renewal.
- Although marketing times expanded slightly, negotiability dropped sharply reflecting the ongoing tight market conditions.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

MANHATTAN For the third consecutive month, median rental price increased above the prior year level. Median rental price was $3,300, 3.1% above the same period last year and the highest level reached since early 2009. After weakening in the second half of 2013 from intensive competition from the sales market, median rental prices have generally trended higher since the beginning of the year. The remaining rental price indicators were mixed. Average rental price slipped 1.2% to $3,902 and average rental price per square foot increased 7.1% respectively from the same month last year…

BROOKLYN Median rental price increased 8.6% to $2,800 from the same month last year, yet remained essentially unchanged from the prior month. Since the beginning of the year, median rental price has showed some stability on a month-over-month basis…

The Elliman Report: 5-2014 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 5-2014 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Douglas Elliman]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Brooklyn Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Quarterly) [Miller Samuel]

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[Infographic] Manhattan and Brooklyn Rents Continue to Rise

May 17, 2014 | 8:55 pm | delogo | Infographics |

Here’s the latest infographic from Douglas Elliman covering the Manhattan & Brooklyn rental market reports for April 2014.

April2014 Manhattan Brooklyn Rentals


Manhattan/Brooklyn Rents Continue to Rise

May 15, 2014 | 10:24 am | delogo | Reports |

Rental_0414

Douglas Elliman published the Manhattan/Brooklyn rental report that I author today. This monthly report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994. We discontinued the quarterly rental report series but still present the information in our aggregate database.

MANHATTAN
- Second highest median rental price reached in over 5 years (highest was one month spike to $3,695 in Feb-09).
- Second consecutive month with year-over-year rise in median rent after 6 consecutive monthly declines.
- The vacancy rate was the lowest for an April in 4 years, falling to 1.45% from 1.58% a year ago.
- Market share of landlord concessions was up slightly from last year to 6.8%, but down from recent January peak of 13.1%.
- The number of new rentals slipped 6.2%, as landlords and tenants have remained more in sync for the 3rd consecutive month.

BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest Regions]
- Median rental price up year-over-year for the 11th consecutive monthly increase.
- New rental activity surged 57.1% as tenants pushed back against rising rents at time of renewal.
- Marketing times and negotiability expanded from a year ago, but remained stable over the past 3 months.
- Studios showed the largest rise in median rental price. 1-bedrooms and 2-bedrooms also increased.
- Brooklyn median rent was $442 less than Manhattan median rent, up from $210 record low in February.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

MANHATTAN Median rental price increased 1.6% to $3,247 from the same period last year to the second highest level in more than 5 years. This was the second consecutive year-over-year monthly increase after 6 consecutive months of decline, largely attributable to a higher than normal sales volume in 2013. The robust sales market provided competition, poaching some rental demand as “fencesitters” concerned about rising mortgage rates opted to purchase. Average rental price rose 5.1% to $4,008, the second time the $4,000 threshold was exceeded in the past 4 years. The overall rise in rental prices was largely seen in the studio and 1-bedroom markets with year-over-year gains of 4.2% and 1.4% respectively…

BROOKLYN The 11th consecutive increase, median rental price increased 3.9% to $2,805 from the same month last year, but fell 3.3% from the prior month record of $2,900. Average rental price followed a similar pattern rising 6.4% to $3,209 over the same period. Despite the rising trend, month over month rental price trends for all indicators have showed relative stability since the beginning of the year…

The Elliman Report: 4-2014 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4-2014 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Douglas Elliman]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Brooklyn Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Quarterly) [Miller Samuel]

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[Infographic] Getting Graphic in South Florida in 1Q 2014

April 18, 2014 | 4:30 pm | delogo | Infographics |

Here’s a jumbo infographic from Douglas Elliman covering the findings of the four market reports in South Florida we prepare for them. Thank goodness Matrix can handle super tall images.

1q14infographicelliman-florida