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Elliman Reports

Charts That Don’t Make Real Estate Trends Into A Stock Ticker

December 21, 2015 | 12:10 pm | bloomberg_news_logo | Charts |

MLHRSQFT

If you’re a subscriber to the Bloomberg Terminals, as roughly 350,000 people are (paying $1,600+ per terminal per month), then you may already know there are a half dozen charts on the Manhattan luxury housing market. To be clear, these indices don’t suggest that housing price trends should be presented as a stock ticker.

It’s a good thing too, since the thought of making real estate housing markets equate to stocks was inspired by, and then was crushed by, the housing boom-bubble-bust era 2003-2008.

Here’s why a stock ticker for real estate is a flawed (aka dumb) concept:

  • A stock market moves in the context of nanoseconds rather than weeks or months.
  • Contract data is not available market-wide and if it were, lags the market by several weeks.
  • Closed data used in a ticker would lag the market by months.
  • It implies instant liquidity for real estate holdings.
  • Not all property types see high volume so their trends are extrapolated (and thus diluted).
  • It teaches market participants that short term views on real estate holdings are the norm, the way a stock day trader views the market.

While a daily real estate index can be created with relative technical ease, it doesn’t mean it is a good idea. It infers a level of precision that doesn’t exist and an accuracy based on lagging data that is not understood by users.

Those who push the stock ticker idea either didn’t work through the last cycle in real estate, or they didn’t learn from the experience.

We update 3 charts on the Manhattan luxury sales market and 3 for the Manhattan luxury rental market. I have always defined “luxury” as the top 10% of transactions during a period.

Click on the gallery below to open each of the indices.

bloombergmanhattangallery

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Brooklyn, Queens Set Records, NYC rents jump, Westchester, Putnam and Dutchess Get Busy

October 8, 2015 | 9:05 pm | delogo | Reports |

wsjbrooklyn3q15-600

We published a slew of research today for Douglas Elliman Real Estate:

Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals

Manhattan Rentals - Median rental price increased year-over-year for the 18th consecutive month - Median rental price was third highest on record - Brisk employment growth and strong economic conditions kept upward pressure on rents - Mortgage lending conditions remained tight tipping would-be first-time buyers back into rental market - Strength at lower end of market remained as non-doorman rents rose faster than doorman rents - Luxury median rental price slipped, showing weakest conditions of all price segments - Inventory slipped and marketing time remained low, despite rise in vacancy rate

Brooklyn Rentals - Median rental price set a new record for third consecutive month - Median rental price exceeded the $3,000 threshold for first time - Landlord concessions remained at nominal level as inventory slipped - Rental price indicators moved higher across all size categories - Listing inventory as well as negotiability between landlords/tenants fell - Median Brooklyn rent was $288 less than Manhattan

Queens Rentals - Price indicators showed mixed results, suggesting general stability overall - Studios showed strong price growth as 1-bedrooms and 2-bedrooms were flat - New development market share comprised 30.2% of new rentals - Luxury market median price gain was modest, but exceeded the overall market - Median Queens rent was $362 less than Brooklyn and $650 less than Manhattan

Brooklyn Sales - Brooklyn median and average sales price set a new record - Brooklyn remains the only New York City borough with a median sales price above the pre-financial crisis high - Condo, co-op and 1-3 family properties set new median sales price record - Luxury housing prices followed overall market trend - Sales expanded as listing inventory declined, resulting in brisk market pace - Fastest marketing time in 8 years

Queens Sales - Queens median and average sales price set a new record - Condo median sales price set a record for second consecutive quarter - Co-op price indicators set new record - 1-3 Family price indicators set new record - Luxury price indicators set new record - Inventory declined as sales surged - Marketing time fell as negotiability expanded

Westchester County Sales (expanded) - Record number of sales for the quarter, based in historical back to 1981 - Fastest marketing time and least negotiability in the 5.5 years this metric has been measured - Listing inventory for all property types slipped from year ago levels - Absorption rate was fastest market pace in 15 years - Single family and condo median sales price indicated stability - Single family market share declined even though sales increased - Luxury price indicators slipped, out performed by overall market

Putnam/Dutchess County Sales (new)

Putnam County - Price trend indicators increased on a year over year basis - Listing inventory slipped as the number of sales surged - Based on absorption, the market pace was 17.2% faster than the year ago quarter - Marketing time and listing discount expanded despite faster market pace

Dutchess County - Price indicators suggested general stability - Single family prices edged higher as condo prices declined - The pace of the market slowed as sales declined and inventory expanded

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Manhattan Report 3Q15 Just Published

October 1, 2015 | 8:06 am | delogo | Reports |

Manhattan_3Q_2015

The Elliman Report: Manhattan Sales 3Q-2015 we author on behalf of Douglas Elliman Real Estate was published today. It’s part of our report series that has been expanding since 1994.

Here’s a brief summary but I’ll provide a more thorough explanation of the results in tomorrow’s Housing Notes (don’t just stare blankly at the screen, please sign up for my free weekly newsletter here.)

  • Median sales price was second highest on record, highest since 2008
  • PPSF set 26 year record of $1,497 per sqft
  • Year-over-year sales increased for first time in a year as pent-up demand from financial crisis has been fully absorbed
  • Listing inventory growth stalled in 2015 after bottoming at the end of 2013
  • 51% of all sales were cash purchases, up from 43% a year ago
  • 53.9% of all sales were “at or above” list price at time of contract, a seven year record
  • Luxury housing prices did not see the same growth as overall market
  • Days on market was lowest (fastest) in 15 years at an average of 73 days
  • Larger price gains seen in larger apartments such as 2, 3, 4 bedrooms than studios – 1 bedrooms
  • New development market share of closed sales continued to rise

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[VIDEO] Boomberg TV ‘Market Makers’ 7-27-15

July 27, 2015 | 10:49 pm | Reports |

Had a nice conversion this morning with Matt Miller and Stephanie Ruhle on Bloomberg TV’s ‘Market Makers.’ Never been on this show before. Wow. Energy+.

Before the show started, we had a active debate on whether ‘American Flyers‘ or ‘Breaking Away‘ was the best bicycling movie. Clearly ‘Breaking Away” was the better of the two HANDS DOWN but I liked the other a lot, especially for someone who likes the whole culture of bike racing. Not sure what bike movies had to do with our ‘state of the Hamptons market’ discussion covering our Hamptons market report for Douglas Elliman, but hey, it was obviously more important to settle the bike movie issue first.

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Record Queens Condo Prices: Bigger Than Crises in Greece, China

July 9, 2015 | 9:51 pm | delogo |

Rental_0615Douglas Elliman published our research today covering Queens sales, Brooklyn sales Westchester/Putnam sales as well as the rental market for Manhattan Brooklyn & Queens. You can download the reports and more at Douglas Elliman’s market report page.

Like last week’s Manhattan report, there were lots of records set and it wasn’t simply the influence of high end sales – prices were up across the board in most markets.

Incidentally, the Bloomberg News article that covered record Queens condo sales was the second most emailed story world-wide. It stoked more interest than the finance crisis in Greece and the recent Chinese stock market gyrations. Apparently only “investors with satellites” was a more popular read.

Idea (?) for next quarter: Talk about drones and investors in the Queens housing market.

2q15queensrptBLOOMBERGTERMINALS

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[Video] Yahoo! Finance w/Lauren Lyster 7-6-2015

July 6, 2015 | 2:11 pm | delogo | TV, Videos |

Lauren Lyster put together an interesting piece called: $100 million listings?! Pros explain why this real estate market is hot, but not a bubble that explores the disconnect between this development boom and the housing bubble last decade.

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2Q 2015 Manhattan Sales Market Breaks A “Record Number of Records”

July 5, 2015 | 9:38 pm | Reports |

Manhattan_2Q15

Last Thursday, the 2Q 2015 Manhattan Sales Report we prepared for Douglas Elliman (part of the Elliman Report series I’ve been writing for 21 years) was published.

I spoke at length about the report in last Friday’s Housing Note: What Greek Debt Crisis? Manhattan Set A Record Number of Housing Records.

You might considering signing up for it. I clear my mind of all the housing clutter accumulated during the week into a thought piece that tries to make sense of what is going on. It’s got plenty of humor and sarcasm, but most importantly, it has plenty of understandable insights, data and charts.

housingnotes_logo

Sign up here as thousands of others have. It’s free and best of all, you’ll make me happy. Even better, if you like it, share it with others.

But I digress…

There were lots of Manhattan records set in 2Q 2015. Here’s a partial list I created for last Friday’s Housing Note: What Greek Debt Crisis? Manhattan Set A Record Number of Housing Records.

Co-op/Condo
Highest Average Sales Price
Highest Average Sales Price – New Development
Highest Average PPSF – New Development
Highest Median Sales Price – New Development
Highest Average Sales Price – Resales
Largest Average Square Feet – New Development
Highest 2-Bedroom Median Sales Price
Highest Median Sales Price 5th Quintile
Highest Median Sales Price 2nd Quintile
Highest Median Sales Price 1st Quintile

Co-op
Highest Average Sales Price
Highest Median Sales Price
Highest Median Sales Price – Resales
Highest Average PPSF – Downtown
Highest Median Sales Price – 2-Bedroom
Highest Average Sales Price – 2-Bedroom
Highest Average PPSF – 4+ Bedroom
Highest Median Sales Price 5th Quintile
Highest Median Sales Price 4th Quintile
Highest Median Sales Price 3rd Quintile
Highest Median Sales Price 2nd Quintile

Condo
Highest Average Sales Price
Highest Average Sales Price – New Development
Highest Average Sales Price – Resales
Highest Average PPSF – Resales
Highest Median Sales Price – Resales
Highest Median Sales Price – Studio
Highest Median Sales Price 5th Quintile
Highest Median Sales Price 4th Quintile
Highest Median Sales Price 1st Quintile

Loft (Co-op+Condo)
Highest Average PPSF
Highest Average Sales Price – Resales
Highest Average PPSF – Resales

Luxury (Co-op+Condo) – Top 10%
Highest Average Sales Price
Highest Average Sales Price – New Development
Highest Median Sales Price – Co-op
Highest Median Sales Price – Condo
Highest Median Sales Price – Resale

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[Video] Bloomberg TV w/Mark Crumpton 7-1-2015

July 5, 2015 | 9:08 pm | TV, Videos |

I very much enjoyed my interview with Mark Crumpton on Bloomberg TV last week concerning the state of the Manhattan and U.S. housing markets. Our just published market report for Douglas Elliman revealed a number of records int he 2Q 2015 real estate market.

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[Three Cents Worth #273 NY] Three Cents Worth: No Relief In Sight For New York Renters

November 29, 2014 | 8:45 pm | curbed |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Before the tryptophan kicks in on Thursday, I thought I’d present the rental market trends for Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens coverage in another way. Because of seasonality, I tend to rely on median rental price compared to the same period a year ago. I applied a 90-day moving average as a trend line for each of the markets to help show where these markets seem to be headed…

3cw11-25-14
[click to expand chart]


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Three Cents Worth: No Relief In Sight For New York Renters [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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3Q14 Manhattan Sales Market: Operating Just Below Record Levels

October 1, 2014 | 6:17 pm | delogo | Reports |

Manhattan_3Q14

Today Douglas Elliman published the Elliman Report on Manhattan Sales that I author. This quarterly report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994 (20 years!).

Key Points
- Sales fell below last year’s third quarter record but still 29% above decade quarterly average.
- Luxury market price gains outpaced the overall market.
- Inventory is up from last year’s low but still 18% below decade quarterly average.
- New development market share of closed sales was up from year ago level, but expected to rise sharply over next year.
- Highest market share of sales at or above list price in 6 years (49.2%).

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

Manhattan housing prices continued to rise as additional supply remained inadequate to meet demand. Bidding wars and a shift toward larger units applied additional upward pressure to rising price trends. Sharp gains in New York City employment, the continued influx of international investors and low mortgage rates have kept the market tight. A product of five years of pent-up demand and the fear of rising mortgage rates, sales volume fell short of prior year records. Marketing times and negotiability eased, as the market downshifted from last year’s frenetic pace. Luxury market price growth exceeded the overall market, while new development product targeted at the luxury segment continued to enter the market…

The Elliman Report: 3Q14 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Market Chart Gallery [Miller Samuel]


Adding Queens To Our Manhattan/Brooklyn Rental Report

July 14, 2014 | 9:12 am | delogo | Reports |

Rental_0614

We’ve expanded the Elliman rental report to include Queens this month and added additional metrics for Manhattan and Brooklyn.

MANHATTAN
- Prices increased for 4th consecutive month after year end lull.
- Median rent is at highest point in more than 5 years.
- The vacancy rate was lowest June in 5 years.
- Use of concessions continued to fall, now at nominal levels.
- Marketing times and negotiability continued to fall.
- Luxury market outperformed the overall market.

BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest, East Regions]
- Median rental price up year over year for 13 consecutive months.
- Rents hovering near record highs but have remained stable since beginning of year.
- New rentals surged indicating resistance to price increases at time of renewal.
- Nominal use of concessions by landlords.
- Overall market outperformed luxury market, price growth stronger in smaller units.
- Manhattan-Brooklyn rental price gap remained at $500, more than the $210 record low in February but less than half of 2008 level.

QUEENS
[Northwest Region]
- Median rental price year-over-year slipped after 4 consecutive monthly increases.
- Shift in mix to smaller units (60.2% share of 1-bedrooms) pulling down overall prices.
- Nearly half of the rental stock is located in new development buildings.
- Overall market outperformed luxury market, price growth stronger in smaller units.
- Marketing time slipped as listing discount remained nominal.


The Elliman Report [Miller Samuel]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery [Miller Samuel]


2Q14 Brings Mixed Regional Messages – Brooklyn, Queens and Westchester/Putnam Reports

July 14, 2014 | 8:53 am | delogo | Reports |

If you’ve been:

A. Pouring over state maps of pet ownership
B. Watching the World Cup
C. Watching the Tour de France
D. Fretting about the Russell Stover purchase

Then you may have missed last week’s market report releases for Brooklyn, Queens and Westchester/Putnam Reports. These are part of the report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994 (20 years!). The reports have a new look – hope you like them.

Click on graphics to open them.

Brooklyn_2Q_2014

BROOKLYN SALES MARKET Brooklyn housing prices continue to set new records, due to rising sales and low inventory. The median sales price of a Brooklyn residential property increased 4.5% to a record $575,000 from the same period last year. Average sales price also set a new record, rising 16.6% to $783,296 from the prior year quarter. Median sales price is now 6.5% above the $540,000 market peak reached in the third quarter of 2007 before the 2008 Lehman “tipping point.” Although this is the 7th consecutive quarter with year-over-year gains in median sales price, the first two quarters of 2014 posted smaller single-digit gains than the double-digit gains of the preceding 5 quarters…

Queens_2Q_2014

QUEENS SALES MARKET The Queens housing market took a breather after 6 consecutive quarters of rising sales. There were 2,404 sales in the second quarter, 3.6% less than the same period last year. Year to date, the number of sales remained 14.2% higher than the same period last year due to the sharp rise in first quarter sales activity. Despite the decline, listing inventory continued to fall for the 13th consecutive quarter. There were 5,892 listings at the end of the second quarter, 5.3% less than the same period last year. As a result of the combination of declining sales and falling inventory, the pace of the market remained stable…

Westchester_2Q_2014

WESTCHESTER/PUTNAM SALES MARKET Westchester single family contract activity was higher than prior year levels as severe winter weather conditions pushed first quarter pending sales into the second quarter. Despite the 16.7% decline in closed home sales, total contracts expanded 3.9% from the prior year quarter and jumped 51.9% from the prior quarter. The rise in contracts from first to second quarter was higher than the 35.5% average increase of the prior 2 years. Listing inventory expanded 7.9% to 3,905 rising from the low water mark set in 2013…


Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Market Chart Gallery [Miller Samuel]