Matrix Blog

Housing Trends & Cycles

Barry Ritholtz’ Bloomberg Masters in Business: Me

December 30, 2014 | 9:24 pm | BloombergViewlogoGray | Radio |

A while back I was interviewed by my friend Barry Ritholtz for his new radio show/podcast Masters in Business for Bloomberg. He is columnist for Bloomberg View and the Washington Post, founder/blogger at the Big Picture blog and is one of the smartest people (and definitely the best story teller), I’ve ever met.

I have been remiss in posting this on Matrix but had already sent it through all my social media channels a number of times earlier this month when the interview originally aired.  It’s the end of 2014 and as one of my favorite interviews, it just needed to be on Matrix.

We cover a lot of ground on the housing market and it was fun and engaging. Our roles were reversed since he was one of my early interviews of my former podcast The Housing Helix from 2009-2012 where I interviewed about 150 people connected to housing and finance. Barry returned to my show 2 more times and each time made it one of the most heavily downloaded interviews of the year.

Please subscribe to his Masters in Business podcast on Bloomberg or listen to it live on Saturdays.

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VIDEO: Fox Business Risk & Reward w/ Deirdre Bolton 12-11-14

December 26, 2014 | 2:31 pm | foxbusiness | TV, Videos |

Was nice to join Deirdre again to talk housing, specifically why rents are rising and buyers are falling.

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Economic Bubble Theory Using Bubbles

December 22, 2014 | 12:03 pm | TV, Videos |

MWbubbleEcon
[click on image to play video]

Ok, so I like making bubbles. Here’s a reason (or excuse) to watch some bubbles – tie it in with economic theory.

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Bloomberg View Column: The $10 Million Home, Never Hotter

November 30, 2014 | 1:00 pm | BloombergViewlogoGray |

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Read my latest Bloomberg View column The $10 Million Home, Never Hotter. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

As the U.S. housing market cools from last year’s overheated state, sales of homes at the top haven’t been following the same script. Prices and sales at the upper reaches are soaring…

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Bloomberg View Column: Housing’s Misleading Health Indicator

November 30, 2014 | 11:00 am | BloombergViewlogoGray | Charts |

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Read my latest Bloomberg View column Housing’s Misleading Health Indicator. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

The National Association of Realtors will release its monthly U.S. existing home sales report tomorrow. Among other things, the report includes what’s known as the absorption rate, or how many months it would take to sell all inventory at the current sales pace. This report and the media coverage around it will inevitably provide the well-worn insight that when the rate is less than six months, housing is “healthy”…

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Bloomberg View Column: Housing Bust Wasn’t About the House

November 30, 2014 | 9:00 am | BloombergViewlogoGray | Charts |

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Read my latest Bloomberg View column Housing Bust Wasn’t About the House. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

Unless you live in a cave, you’re no doubt familiar with the outlines of the housing bust that marked the beginning of the financial crisis: Real-estate prices plunged, people lost their homes, banks went under and the economy tumbled into a recession. We are still grappling with the hangover…

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[Three Cents Worth #273 NY] Three Cents Worth: No Relief In Sight For New York Renters

November 29, 2014 | 8:45 pm | curbed |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Before the tryptophan kicks in on Thursday, I thought I’d present the rental market trends for Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens coverage in another way. Because of seasonality, I tend to rely on median rental price compared to the same period a year ago. I applied a 90-day moving average as a trend line for each of the markets to help show where these markets seem to be headed…

3cw11-25-14
[click to expand chart]


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Three Cents Worth: No Relief In Sight For New York Renters [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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[Three Cents Worth #271 NY] How New York’s Average Sales Price Broke the $1 Million Mark

November 4, 2014 | 4:00 pm | curbed | Columns |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Although it has been a little more than a month since the third quarter ended, I thought I’d show that the average sales price of the five boroughs in aggregate broke the $1 million threshold for the first time, to a record $1,040,516…

3cw11-4-14
[click to expand chart]


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: How New York’s Average Sales Price Broke the $1 Million Mark [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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Bloomberg View Column: What Does It Mean When a House Sells for $50 Million?

September 17, 2014 | 2:58 pm | BloombergViewlogoGray | Articles |

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Read my latest Bloomberg View column What Does It Mean When a House Sells for $50 Million?. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

One of the byproducts of the global financial crisis has been the creation of a new class of housing and buyers. Some of the strongest evidence is the rise in the number of residences sold for more than $50 million. A buyer recently paid a record $71.3 million for a Manhattan co-op, breaking the $70 million record set only a few months earlier. These sales seem modest compared with a $147 million sale in East Hampton, New York, and a $120 million sale in Greenwich, Connecticut, the two highest U.S. residential transactions in 2014. There have been six sales of more than $100 million in the past four years, with more likely to come…

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BV9-17-14$50Mtable
[click to expand]


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[Manhattan Absorption] August 2014 The $3M-$5M Market Slows Down

September 13, 2014 | 6:15 pm | Charts |

8-2014Manhattan [click to expand]

Thoughts Not a big difference from last year. Sub-$3M is generally very tight with not much variation between price categories in each region. There isn’t much difference in the $10M+ market. Condos are slower than co-ops overall, but not by much. The difference is being seen in the $5M to $10M, which is moving more slowly moving than it was a year ago.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

August 2014 v 2013
8-201408-2013 [click images to expand]

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. (I got tired of the red/gray look in 9-2014 so I changed it) The blue/red line shows the 10-year quarterly average for context. The pink/orange line represents the overall average absorption rate of the most recently completed month for that market area. 

Definition Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the current annualized pace of sales activity in our market report series.


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts [Miller Samuel]

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