Matrix Blog

Housing Trends & Cycles

[Infographic] Getting Graphic in South Florida in 1Q 2014

April 18, 2014 | 4:30 pm | delogo | Infographics |

Here’s a jumbo infographic from Douglas Elliman covering the findings of the four market reports in South Florida we prepare for them. Thank goodness Matrix can handle super tall images.

1q14infographicelliman-florida


[Manhattan Absorption] March 2014 – All But Top 1% Seeing Faster Pace

April 12, 2014 | 1:23 pm |

3-2014Manhattan [click to expand]

Thoughts
All price segments of the market are generally showing a faster market pace than the same month in the prior year. The top 1% ($10M+) had slower absorption rates for co-ops and condos, but not by much. Inventory began to “bottom” in recent quarters so we may not see much more compression in the market pace in the coming months.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

March 2014 v 2013
3-201403-2013 [click images to expand]

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month for that market area.

Definition
Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in our market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts [Miller Samuel]

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[Chart] Manhattan Inventory Reached Bottom After 4 Years of Decline

April 4, 2014 | 9:00 am | Charts |

Manhattan listing inventory seems to have found a bottom after 4 years of decline…

1q14manhattan-inventorysplit
[click to expand]

Manhattan Co-op/Condo Market Charts [Miller Samuel]

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1Q 2014 Manhattan Sales Report Released, Records Reached

April 1, 2014 | 4:46 pm | delogo | Reports |

Manhattan_1Q_2014

Douglas Elliman published the Manhattan sales report today that I author. This report is part of an evolving series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Trends

  • Most first quarter sales in 7 years, but not expected to keep torrid pace.
  • Price per square foot sets 25-year record of $1,363.
  • Median sales price jumped 18.5% but remained 5.1% below 2008 peak.
  • Inventory was flat for first time in 3 years.
  • Comparisons against year ago levels skewed higher from brief “fiscal cliff” lull.
  • Credit remains tight partly due to implementation of QM – keeping inventory low.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

First quarter Manhattan housing market conditions included double-digit price gains from prior year levels as the sales mix shifted to larger units and a growing new development market share targeted the luxury market. Sales momentum from a record setting 2013 carried into the new year and listing inventory stabilized after twelve consecutive quarterly year-over-year declines.

Median sales price increased 18.5% to $972,428 from the last year, but remained 5.1% below the high water mark set in the second quarter of 2008 before the Lehman tipping point in the subsequent quarter. Average sales price jumped 30.9% to $1,773,523 from the same period last year due to a number of factors, including the rise in luxury new development market share, the increase in the average sales size and larger price gains at the upper end of the market. The average square footage of an apartment was 1,301, a 5.9% increase from the same period last year. The average price per square foot of a Manhattan apartment reached a record $1,363, 23.6% above year the prior year level…

There was heavy media coverage of the report release this quarter.




The Elliman Report: 1Q 14 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 14 Manhattan Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery [Miller Samuel]

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[Three Cents Worth #264 NY] Tracking How High People Buy In Manhattan

March 25, 2014 | 4:59 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Spectators and participants in the Manhattan housing market have been burning a lot of calories talking about views, something the super luxury new development projects have been marketing as a key feature. I thought I’d look back over time to at what the average floor level of closed co-op and condo sales by quarter, and see if there is a pattern. I sifted through six years of data (note to self for rainy day: go back 25 years and break out condos and co-ops). While I’ve analyzed the value of floor level in Manhattan here and here before, I’ve never trended floor level and didn’t quite know what to expect…

[My post title was originally "Manhattan Rebound Not Because of Dizzying Heights" but wasn't Curbed staff didn't think it was catchy enough, ed.]

3cwNY3-25-14
[click to expand chart]



My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Tracking How High People Buy In Manhattan [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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Talking Interest Rates, Housing on Bloomberg TV’s ‘Surveillance’

March 20, 2014 | 8:33 am | bloomberglogo | Videos |

Had a great conversation with Tom Keene, Scarlet Fu, Olivia Sterns and guest host Strategas Research Chief Investment Strategist Jason Trennert about the US housing market. We also dabbled a bit in Brooklyn and Manhattan rents and talked NCAA March Madness picks. Always fun to come in and join the Surveillance team.

Go MSU Spartans! Go State!

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Manhattan’s Decade of Incredible Shrinking Apartment Sizes

March 19, 2014 | 12:30 pm | Charts |

I took a look at the last decade of Manhattan sales activity and broke out a bunch of neighborhoods and property types to compare their changes in average square footage from 2004 to 2013. I looked at the annual sales activity for both years and presented the percent change in the table below.

Takeaway

Rising costs over the decade have prompted small apartment sales at higher prices. New development activity that dominated the market in the middle of the last decade influenced sizes to shrink. This is distinctly different than the discussion about the shift in the mix towards larger apartments – ie more bedrooms.

matrix14manhattansqft
[click to expand]

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It’s St. Joseph’s Day – What Does It Tell Us About Housing Trends?

March 19, 2014 | 11:16 am | wsjlogo |

wsj3-14stjoseph
[Source: WSJ]

Last week I can across Sanette Tanaka’s WSJ column “Spreadsheet” titled “Bless Our Happy Home Sale” that talked about the tradition regarding St. Joseph. I waited to blog about it until today since March 19th is actually St. Joseph’s Day (BTW: who is getting any work done this week with 3/17 St Patrick’s, 3/18 March Madness brackets and now this?).

I love the phrase within the WSJ graphic: “Faith in Action.”

I previously wrote about this here in September 2005 and in October 2007.

Traditionally, Joseph, the husband of Mary, is hailed as the patron saint of home and family. Some believe that burying a statue of St. Joseph in the yard helps sell a house.

Here’s how it the process works when selling your home:

  1. Bury the St. Joseph statue upside-down in your yard, facing toward the house listed for sale.

  2. Sell the house.

  3. The Seller digs up the statue and puts it in the new home in a special place.

The last 4 years of statue sales show a pattern consistent with NAR’s existing home sale pattern with the housing market rebound beginning in 2011.

Who says housing trend analysis is devoid of emotion. Got it?

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Is Gentrification a Four Letter Word?

March 5, 2014 | 11:00 am | nytlogo |

dieyuppiescum

Back in mid 1980′s the front door of a new condo conversion at One Tompkins Square Park was spray painted with words “Die Yuppie Scum” and it became the battle cry for protests against gentrification of the East Village. With the eastward push of new residential development in the 1980s from the West and Central Village, residents and local businesses worried about being priced out and losing the intangibles that made the neighborhood unique – and that they would disappear along with it.

I remember appraising apartments to the east of Tompkins Square Park, seeing squatters inhabit derelict buildings, observing a burned out school bus on blocks in front of a newly converted walk-up and the self-described “Anarchists” in the park. All that is gone.

Recent discussions about gentrification have been more visible of late – and so have the discussions of the benefits of gentrification.

Merriam-Webster defines gentrification as:

the process of renewal and rebuilding accompanying the influx of middle-class or affluent people into deteriorating areas that often displaces poorer residents

Philadelphia is one of the first cities to tackle the issue in an attempt to keep the long time residents there and in doing so, helping to minimize the loss of the character of the neighborhood. It is fascinating and encouraging to see city governments be proactive on the issue since it costs money in the short term.

The initiatives, planned or underway in Boston, Philadelphia, Washington, Pittsburgh and other cities, are centered on reducing or freezing property taxes for such homeowners in an effort to promote neighborhood stability, preserve character and provide a dividend of sorts to those who have stayed through years of high crime, population loss and declining property values, officials say.

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[Three Cents Worth #261 NY] Inventory Rising At Fastest Pace in 4 Years

March 5, 2014 | 6:00 am | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

After an insanely chaotic and active 2013, it’s probably time to think about how 2014 is shaping up inventory-wise. At the end of last year, I was of the opinion that listing inventory was at or near a bottom and we would see some increase in supply but not nearly enough to match demand. And so far that has been the story. In this week’s column, I took a look at the first eight weeks of each year going back to 2009. Inventory always rises at the beginning of the year as sellers anticipate the spring market and skip over the December doldrums. I’d go back further in time, but I only began tracking inventory on a weekly basis in addition to monthly right after Lehman collapsed (I had more time on my hands). This analysis looks at overall Manhattan inventory at all price points—clearly there are nuances not reflected, i.e. luxury listings at historical averages while the remainder at chronic lows, so relax…

3cwNY3-4-14
[click to expand chart]



My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Inventory Rising At Fastest Pace in 4 Years [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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