Was asked to guest host this morning for the 7-8am hour on Bloomberg TV’s Surveillance. Tom Keene, Scarlet Fu and Adam Johnson team up for a must-watch show every morning.
In the first clip we talk Manhattan Luxury market problems and records. In the second clip we banter about the bendable iPhone Plus and housing as an investment. These two articles likely prompted my invite:
NYC Luxury-Condo Buyers Await New Towers as Sales Slow [Bloomberg News]
NYC’s Most Expensive Condo to Be Listed at $130 Million [Bloomberg News]
UPDATE: above clip just added – expanded conversation.
Got to guest host an hour (6am to 7am) of Bloomberg Television’s Surveillance with Tom Keene, Scarlett Fu and Adam Johnson to talk housing. The above is just a couple of minutes of the hour (yes, you’re spared). We spoke about Case Shiller, New Home Sales, biting in World Cup Soccer, my fireman son using a GoPro in fires and LeBron/Carmelo’s real worth among other things. Like I said, we did talk housing.
Adam brought up a great point – while the economy is always characterized as 70% consumer driven, 16% of that is actually health care spending so the overall number is really 54%.
Very smart conversations (the topic of biting included). Always fun to join them.
This morning, I got to join Tom Keene, Adam Johnson and Cristina Alesci on Bloomberg TV’s Surveillance to talk housing for the 6am to 7am hour. Definitely worth getting up at 4am to make into the studio. No, really!
Covered a lot of ground this morning on the show. Here’s another clip.
In the spring of 2012 my floor level valuation methodology was illustrated in a great piece in New York Magazine by Jhoanna Robledo called “What Price Height and Light?. The graphic and accompanying descriptions provide incredible clarity to a fairly convoluted subject.
In the flurry of transitioning content to our new site over the past few months, I remember the actual moment when I deleted the original post for this topic by mistake and thought, “wow this is annoying but I can always go the Wayback Machine.” However, today someone asked me about the graphic and I couldn’t find my prior post on the Wayback Machine (but I found a bunch of cool stuff) so I am reposting this piece. I really LOVE the graphic that New York Magazine came up with.
Had a great conversation with Tom Keene, Scarlet Fu, Olivia Sterns and guest host Strategas Research Chief Investment Strategist Jason Trennert about the US housing market. We also dabbled a bit in Brooklyn and Manhattan rents and talked NCAA March Madness picks. Always fun to come in and join the Surveillance team.
Had a great conversation with Trish Regan on her Bloomberg TV show “Street Smart” about the Manhattan and Brooklyn rental markets and rent versus buy. This was in connection with the February Elliman rental report we published earlier that day.
It was windy and 18 degrees outside so I think I look a bit disheveled. But always fun to connect with everyone at Bloomberg whenever I visit (and maintain my Foursquare mayorship of the “green room”).
Yesterday I did a quick interview for CNBC at 30 Rock (right next to the new Tonight Show/Jimmy Fallon set which was all abuzz). We were talking about housing starts before they were released. While predicting this stuff is a fool’s errand, I think the bigger question was whether the recent weakening of housing metrics was a new trend or a pause caused by the harsh weather creating havoc across the US.
The NAHB homebuilder sentiment index (1 family) posted its largest one month drop in history – severe weather, cost of labor, materials and land with given as reasons but those really aren’t new issues other than the severe weather.
While weather played a role and probably amounts to more of a short term blip, I think the larger concern is the outlook over the next 6 months with reduced affordability (higher rates but still historically low) and the bottoming of existing home inventory in 2013 providing additional listing competition in some markets.
December housing starts
• 999k annualized and seasonally adjusted rate in December, declining 9.8% but exceeding forecasts. More weakness in multi-family starts than 1-family
• +18.3% 2013 over 2012
Why I thought January Housing Starts would fall (luckily I was right with the announcement of a record 16% drop)
• Same factors in place as last month: Weather, Labor and Material Costs and Land Costs.
• Record m-o-m drop in NAFB confidence – looking out over the coming months – suggests a larger impact by weather.
• Mortgage rates slipped from last month but still nearly a point higher than a year ago, expectation of flat or edging higher in 2014.
• Implementation of Dodd-Frank Qualified Mortgage (QM) may also drag viewing traffic.
• Permits already fell over last 2 months which suggests lower starts (contracts versus closed sales analogy).
Actual January housing starts release after my interview
• 880K annualized rate in January, dropping 16% from December 2013.
• January 2014 y-o-y dropped 2%.
• Permits fell for 3rd consecutive month, down 5.4% from prior month (seasonally adjusted).
STILL – the question REALLY is whether the recent construction slowdown is the beginning of a trend or a temporary set back that will clear over the next few months as the weather improves and the economy shows some improvement. Right now it feels more like the market is losing momentum and the weather is only making it worse.
Subscribe to receive additional insights and research (coming soon).
About Jonathan Miller
Jonathan Miller is President and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraisal and consulting firm he co-founded in 1986. He is a state-certified real estate appraiser in New York and Connecticut, performing court testimony as an expert witness in various local, state and federal courts. He holds the Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) and Certified Relocation Professional (CRP) designations. He is an Appraiser “A” Member of the Real Estate Board of New York and a member of Relocation Appraisers and Consultants, Inc. Learn More...
Subscription Service Coming Soon
You'll be able to choose from an array of robust housing metrics compiled using research developed during the preparation of our market report series. Expanded significantly from prior offerings, use this resource to build charts and custom data tables or leverage your own information for more powerful research and presentations.
In the meantime, here is the free aggregated data we currently provide.
“Jonathan Miller is one of the icons of the real estate industry.”–Real Estate Board of New York
“If New York real estate is a sport, one of its most prominent score keepers is Jonathan Miller.”–New York Daily News
“If market guru Jonathan Miller said it, it must be true.”–Stuart Elliott, Editor-In-Chief, The Real Deal
“Jonathan Miller is well-known for taking the pulse of Manhattan real estate.”–PBS Nightly Business Report
“A Curbed reader goes all 'Jonathan Miller' on us.”–Curbed New York
“His quarterly reports on the New York City-area market is considered required reading among real estate professionals.”–Reuters
“In the real estate world, Jonathan Miller is where street-smart meets book-smart.”–Jed Kolko, Chief Economist, Trulia
“Miller’s more than 20 years of real estate experience comes out in this no-nonsense blog.”–Seeking Alpha
“A combination of Godzilla, King Kong, and Hurricane Katrina all wrapped up in one as he wreaked havoc on the housing market.”–New York Sun
“Jonathan Miller’s blog Matrix. Completely Keanu Reeves-free real estate economics, not for beginners.”–Curbed San Francisco
“Jonathan Miller delivers real estate news in language even a blogger can understand.”–Curbed DC
“His market reports are to the Manhattan housing market what those brackets are to the NCAA Tournament.”–New York Observer
“Should we have seen this coming?...I spoke to appraiser Jonathan Miller 3 years ago.”–CNBC
“Our sherpa in the land of broker euphemism for the current state of the housing market.”–New York Observer
“Jonathan is a legend, one of the most quoted appraisers and experts in the industry.”–Dottie Herman, President and CEO, Douglas Elliman
“The oracle of New York City real estate: Jonathan Miller.”–Amir Korangy, Publisher, The Real Deal
“A web site 'worth visiting.'”–Realtor Online Magazine
“Jonathan Miller...Manhattan’s most revered independent appraisers of residential property.”–Daily Telegraph (UK)
“Miller is the best real estate blogger out there.”–Bankrate
“Jonathan Miller, an appraiser dubbed 'the Wikipedia of Manhattan real estate.'”–Barrons
“Our man Jonathan Miller drops the truth bomb.”–Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture Blog
“Market Analyst Jonathan Miller: Thank the Flying Spaghetti Monster he's on our side.”–Curbed Miami
“Renowned appraiser and [Matrix] real estate blogger, Miller is a statistical wizard. Can dodge bullets in slow-mo.”–Real Estate Tomato
“It’s tough to find the good guys..Fortunately we found one. His name is Jonathan Miller.”–Glenn Beck, CNN
“Jonathan Miller...one of the nation’s most prominent appraisers.”–Money Magazine
“New York real estate maven Jonathan Miller.”–Slate
“Jonathan Miller delivers the unflinching and un-fluffy truth about an industry he knows inside out.”–Teri Rogers, Brick Underground
“Jonathan Miller, the most popular guy on the block when talking about real estate in New York.”–Tom Keene, Bloomberg Radio
“Why is Jonathan Miller’s Matrix required reading? …He grabs you right from the start.”–New York Times
“Somebody-explain-this-crazy-market-to-me guy Jonathan Miller.”–Curbed New York
“When it comes to markets trends, nobody knows the multiple NYC real estate markets better than Jonathan Miller.”–John L. Heithaus, CSO, BuyerMLS
“Jonathan Miller, the go-to expert on all residential real estate figures.”–Crain’s New York Business
“Jonathan Miller, the demigod of New York real estate stats.”–New York Observer
“Check out Superstar Appraiser Jonathan Miller’s blog Matrix for the latest in depth information on NYC housing.”–Urban Digs
“Jonathan Miller, the appraiser who is the savviest observer of the local residential market.”–Crain’s New York Business
“Miller is arguably the most influential voice in residential property valuation markets today.”–Altos Research
“Then there is Miller’s authority in residential appraisals.”–Reuters
“JM makes real estate stats talk in language that normal people understand.”–Teri Rogers, Brick Underground
I was invited to speak at the Great Lakes Chapter of the Appraisal Institute last week and met a lot of great appraisers who cover the state of Michigan. I spoke about the housing market and the misinterpretation of residential… Read More