Was asked to guest host this morning for the 7-8am hour on Bloomberg TV’s Surveillance. Tom Keene, Scarlet Fu and Adam Johnson team up for a must-watch show every morning.
In the first clip we talk Manhattan Luxury market problems and records. In the second clip we banter about the bendable iPhone Plus and housing as an investment. These two articles likely prompted my invite:
NYC Luxury-Condo Buyers Await New Towers as Sales Slow [Bloomberg News]
NYC’s Most Expensive Condo to Be Listed at $130 Million [Bloomberg News]
UPDATE: above clip just added – expanded conversation.
Got to guest host an hour (6am to 7am) of Bloomberg Television’s Surveillance with Tom Keene, Scarlett Fu and Adam Johnson to talk housing. The above is just a couple of minutes of the hour (yes, you’re spared). We spoke about Case Shiller, New Home Sales, biting in World Cup Soccer, my fireman son using a GoPro in fires and LeBron/Carmelo’s real worth among other things. Like I said, we did talk housing.
Adam brought up a great point – while the economy is always characterized as 70% consumer driven, 16% of that is actually health care spending so the overall number is really 54%.
Very smart conversations (the topic of biting included). Always fun to join them.
This morning, I got to join Tom Keene, Adam Johnson and Cristina Alesci on Bloomberg TV’s Surveillance to talk housing for the 6am to 7am hour. Definitely worth getting up at 4am to make into the studio. No, really!
Covered a lot of ground this morning on the show. Here’s another clip.
In the spring of 2012 my floor level valuation methodology was illustrated in a great piece in New York Magazine by Jhoanna Robledo called “What Price Height and Light?. The graphic and accompanying descriptions provide incredible clarity to a fairly convoluted subject.
In the flurry of transitioning content to our new site over the past few months, I remember the actual moment when I deleted the original post for this topic by mistake and thought, “wow this is annoying but I can always go the Wayback Machine.” However, today someone asked me about the graphic and I couldn’t find my prior post on the Wayback Machine (but I found a bunch of cool stuff) so I am reposting this piece. I really LOVE the graphic that New York Magazine came up with.
Had a great conversation with Tom Keene, Scarlet Fu, Olivia Sterns and guest host Strategas Research Chief Investment Strategist Jason Trennert about the US housing market. We also dabbled a bit in Brooklyn and Manhattan rents and talked NCAA March Madness picks. Always fun to come in and join the Surveillance team.
Had a great conversation with Trish Regan on her Bloomberg TV show “Street Smart” about the Manhattan and Brooklyn rental markets and rent versus buy. This was in connection with the February Elliman rental report we published earlier that day.
It was windy and 18 degrees outside so I think I look a bit disheveled. But always fun to connect with everyone at Bloomberg whenever I visit (and maintain my Foursquare mayorship of the “green room”).
Yesterday I did a quick interview for CNBC at 30 Rock (right next to the new Tonight Show/Jimmy Fallon set which was all abuzz). We were talking about housing starts before they were released. While predicting this stuff is a fool’s errand, I think the bigger question was whether the recent weakening of housing metrics was a new trend or a pause caused by the harsh weather creating havoc across the US.
The NAHB homebuilder sentiment index (1 family) posted its largest one month drop in history – severe weather, cost of labor, materials and land with given as reasons but those really aren’t new issues other than the severe weather.
While weather played a role and probably amounts to more of a short term blip, I think the larger concern is the outlook over the next 6 months with reduced affordability (higher rates but still historically low) and the bottoming of existing home inventory in 2013 providing additional listing competition in some markets.
December housing starts
• 999k annualized and seasonally adjusted rate in December, declining 9.8% but exceeding forecasts. More weakness in multi-family starts than 1-family
• +18.3% 2013 over 2012
Why I thought January Housing Starts would fall (luckily I was right with the announcement of a record 16% drop)
• Same factors in place as last month: Weather, Labor and Material Costs and Land Costs.
• Record m-o-m drop in NAFB confidence – looking out over the coming months – suggests a larger impact by weather.
• Mortgage rates slipped from last month but still nearly a point higher than a year ago, expectation of flat or edging higher in 2014.
• Implementation of Dodd-Frank Qualified Mortgage (QM) may also drag viewing traffic.
• Permits already fell over last 2 months which suggests lower starts (contracts versus closed sales analogy).
Actual January housing starts release after my interview
• 880K annualized rate in January, dropping 16% from December 2013.
• January 2014 y-o-y dropped 2%.
• Permits fell for 3rd consecutive month, down 5.4% from prior month (seasonally adjusted).
STILL – the question REALLY is whether the recent construction slowdown is the beginning of a trend or a temporary set back that will clear over the next few months as the weather improves and the economy shows some improvement. Right now it feels more like the market is losing momentum and the weather is only making it worse.
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About Jonathan Miller
Jonathan Miller is President and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraisal and consulting firm he co-founded in 1986. He is a state-certified real estate appraiser in New York and Connecticut, performing court testimony as an expert witness in various local, state and federal courts. He holds the Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) and Certified Relocation Professional (CRP) designations. He is an Appraiser “A” Member of the Real Estate Board of New York and a member of Relocation Appraisers and Consultants, Inc. Learn More...
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Read my latest Bloomberg View column Hedge-Fund Guys Have Foreclosure Fatigue. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt… One of the most important ways to strengthen the U.S. housing recovery is to get distressed properties into… Read More