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[Video] Manhattan’s tight non-luxury housing market on Bloomberg TV’s Market Makers 8-7-13

August 8, 2013 | 2:02 pm | | Columns |

Yesterday, Oshrat Carmiel’s real estate piece: Manhattan Homes Under $3 Million Never Harder to Buy hit the terminals and web site rising almost immediately to the most emailed and most read article of the day. The starting point for her article was based on my firm’s data – extracting the luxury market data from the overall market – to observe what’s happening to “non-luxury” real estate. I define luxury real estate as the top 10% of all sales prices in a period. This analysis looked at the remaining 90% and as it turns out – the Manhattan market is a lot tighter there.

I had a fun discussion with Erik Schatzker and Alix Steel about the “non-luxury” Manhattan market on their Bloomberg TV show “Market Makers.”

I also did an interview with Kathleen Hays and Vonnie Quinn on Bloomberg Radio’s “The Hays Advantage” and also used the data I compiled in my weekly column on Curbed covering the same topic.

As of today, the Bloomberg article is still the most read on Bloomberg worldwide. Apparently there is interest in the housing market beyond the super wealthy’s real estate exploits.

It was a busy day.

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[VIDEO] Manhattan’s Record Spring Market on Bloomberg TV’s Market Makers 7-2-13

July 2, 2013 | 6:52 pm | | TV, Videos |

I joined Erik Schatzker and Scarlet Fu to talk about our new market research piece released today covering the 2Q13 Manhattan sales market that we prepare for Douglas Elliman.

The Bloomberg TV long interview format is absolutely fantastic.

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Talking Case Shiller on Bloomberg TV’s ‘Street Smart” with Betty Liu/Adam Johnson

May 29, 2013 | 11:57 am | | Public |

Yesterday’s release of the Case Shiller Index prompted a flurry of coverage given the 20-cities’ highest YoY increase in 7-years. I did a three way split interview from a remote location in CT (see studio set up below). I was a guest along with Vincent Reinhart, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley and Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow Inc. Betty Liu and Adam Johnson kept the conversation going.

I especially liked Stan’s modification of the Case Shiller Index results which excluded foreclosures and his research on low and negative equity (my explanation for low inventory right now). The drop in foreclosure activity over the past year caused significant skew to the mix. According to Stan the index would show roughly a 5% increase YoY rather than an 10.9% increase. A huge difference and yet another reason why this index does more harm than good to our understanding of the housing market.

Vincent’s observation that seasonality is considered in Case Shiller is basically wrong – not technically wrong because the data is seasonally adjusted. However the methodology of a repeat sales index washes out seasonality. If you look at the Case Shiller chart, there hasn’t been “seasons” in housing since 1987. That’s simply not true. The Case Shiller Index does not reflect annual housing cycles.

Since Case Shiller Index lags the signing of contracts by 5-7 months, expect to see much higher YoY results this summer.

How the sausage is made

Bloomberg TV is always great to work with – they arranged for me to use a remote studio in CT through a third party. Here is what the studio looks like. Amazingly primitive but it works!

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Bloomberg Surveillence TV with Tom Keene, Sara Eisen and Adam Davidson

May 13, 2013 | 8:46 am | | Public |

Had a fun interview with Tom and Sara this morning on the always MUST watch/listen Bloomberg Surveillance. We talked housing, rentals, vacancy and inventory. An added bonus was the addition of Adam Davidson – co-founder and co-host of Planet Money as guest anchor. I’m a huge fan of his show. Even bought their t-shirt last week through Kickstarter.

More importantly, I’m still the mayor of the Bloomberg Cafeteria on FourSquare.

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Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Market Indices on Bloomberg Terminals [1Q 13]

April 28, 2013 | 7:08 pm | | Charts |

A while ago Bloomberg created three luxury housing indices using our Manhattan historical data for their terminal subscribers. Kinda cool. For all the high end housing market hype, the upper end has remained fairly stable for several years. That may change a bit going forward (higher).

Here are the latest:

MLH SQFT Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Price Per Square Foot)

[click to expand]

MLH MED Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Median Sales Price)

[click to expand]

MLH AVG Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Average Sales Price)

[click to expand]

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Interview on CCTV America, State of Fannie Mae

April 4, 2013 | 7:25 am | | TV, Videos |


[click to play – starts at 13:50]

I spoke with Michelle Makori on the state of Fannie Mae (who just reported a record profit). CCTV America is part of China Central Television (CCTV), the largest television broadcaster in China.

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On Bloomberg TV, Surveillance w/Tom Keene 3-11-13: Housing, Mortgages, Rising Prices

March 11, 2013 | 11:46 am | | Public |

Had a great visit with Tom Keene this morning on Bloomberg TV’s Surveillance along with Scarlet Fu and Sara Eisen. It was simulcast on Bloomberg Radio.

Also in studio was James Lockhart, vice chairman of WL Ross & Co., formerly the head of GSE regulator FHFA. We were also joined by Nicolas Retsinas, a senior lecturer in real estate at Harvard Business School who called in – he has been on my old podcast a few times. Both provided great insight to the housing narrative.

Here’s the second clip from the same session. My basic premise is that while new home sales are rising, it will not be enough to address the collapse of listing inventory which will drive housing prices higher in the US. Hint: It’s mostly about tight credit. Housing is local and credit is national.

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Wall Streeters Paid 7X The Private Sector

February 27, 2013 | 12:42 pm | | Charts |

In case you have any doubts about the amount of compensation that the securities industry enjoys versus the private sector in NYC, I created the chart above. While the bonus comp results has been released for 2012, the salary data is not out yet so I built this chart from 1985-2011. In 2011, securities industry salaries + bonuses were 7x larger than private industry salaries.

In case you had any doubts about how important the industry is to the NYC, regional and state economy, hopefully you are now – love them or hate them.

Since Wall Street bonuses were announced yesterday and have been talked about and analyzed a lot over the past 24 hours, I thought I’d share the following video which apologizes a lot for compensation levels of the securities industry but breaks down the advantages of the bonus compensation practice on Wall Street.

I was provided with a video from OnlineMBA.com



Three Cents Worth: Have Bonus, Will Buy in Manhattan? [Curbed NY]
In Defense of the Wall Street Bonus [OnlineMBA]
NYC Securities v. Other Private Industry Compensation [Miller Samuel Charts]
Wall Street Bonuses Rose in 2012 [NYS Comptroller]

UPDATE: Bloomberg Television saw this post and made it their “Single Best Chart” of the day.

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Miller Samuel Luxury Market Indices on Bloomberg Terminals

January 28, 2013 | 11:00 am | | Charts |

Here are the 3 Manhattan luxury housing price indices we provide for the Bloomberg Terminals.

MLH AVG Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Average Sales Price)
[click to expand]

MLH SQFT Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Price Per Square Foot)
[click to expand]

MLH MED Index (Miller Samuel Manhattan Luxury Housing Median Sales Price)
[click to expand]

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Video: Record Average Sales Price In Hamptons

January 27, 2013 | 3:21 pm | | TV, Videos |

The record average sales price in our Douglas Elliman Hamptons market report made “The Bloomberg Number” today on Betty Liu’s show “In The Loop.”

The record price (highest we’ve seen since we began tracking it in 1999) was the result of skew towards the high end of the market as higher end consumers pushed to close prior to December 31 to avoid potential tax increases. It’s not that housing prices are rising, rather a lot more sales closed at the high end in 4Q12. For example there were more sales to close at or above $5M (49) than we have seen since we began tracking this metric in mid-2008.

Looks for a slower market in 1Q13 as sales that would have organically closed were poached (pulled back) into 4Q12.


[In The Media] Bloomberg’s “Street Smart” 1-7-13

January 8, 2013 | 2:37 pm | | TV, Videos |

Had a quick but fun visit with Trish Regan and Adam Johnson on Bloomberg TV’s “Street Smart.” We covered some of the results of the 4th quarter market report on Manhattan sales I have been preparing for Douglas Elliman for years.

Just before I came on to the set there was a breaking news flash that a tanker crashed into San Francisco’s Bay Bridge – quickly thought my segment would be cut but alas it wasn’t. I have a long legacy for timing like that, just not this time.

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[In The Media] Bloomberg’s “Money Makers” 12-28-12

December 29, 2012 | 11:50 am | | Public |

Had a nice chat with Erik Schatzker and Sara Eisen on the top 5 closed Manhattan transactions to date (there may be a few more squeezed in). We got through 3 and then there was a breaking news event – the president was announcing the status of the “fiscal cliff” talks.

Imagine that! As if the “fiscal cliff” was somehow more important than learning where the super wealthy invested their money in real estate? Ok I’m kidding.

I’ll finish the list and include the top sales in a post later today when the howling snow storm hits CT.

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