Matrix Blog

Long Island

[Pre-Nor'easter Keynote] Long Island Housing Market: Transitioning from “Recovery” to “Recovered”

February 12, 2014 | 12:17 pm | fedny | Public |

appraisalinstitutelogo

A while back, I was invited by the Long Island Chapter of the Appraisal Institute to keynote for their winter dinner/seminar tonight in Westbury, Long Island:

LI Housing Market: Transitioning from “Recovery” to “Recovered”

It’ll be great to catch up with my friends and colleagues and I always love to talk appraisalspeak for extended periods of time.

The presentation will cover (2 CE credits):

Long Island Market Reports, Key Trends, Drivers of the Current Residential Market, Fiscal Cliff, Pent-Up Demand, Record Low Inventory, Mortgage Rates, Federal Reserve, Transitioning to a Sustainable Long Term Housing Market Recovery

In a question and answer period, discussion will include Snapshot of the Long Island Housing market, including 4Q 2013 market research results in Long Island, Hamptons and the North Fork; Affordability, What is driving Sales Activity?; The relationship between Sales and Prices – Why is inventory low?; Spike in Mortgage Rates; Federal Reserve taper miscommunication; Why are Housing Prices Rising?; Long Island and Manhattan real estate economy, Credit Issues, Lending, Market Trends, Impacts, and Challenges in Year 2014.

The latest Nor’easter is supposed to start at about 2AM so it looks like we’ll get this done just under the wire!

Tags: , , ,


3Q 2013 Market Report Gauntlet Comes to a Close

October 26, 2013 | 5:15 pm | delogo | Reports |

This week marked the end of what I call the “quarterly gauntlet” market report releases that I author for Douglas Elliman. If you’re interested, we’ve analyzed a bunch of markets:

NYC Metro Area
- Manhattan Sales
- Manhattan & Brooklyn Rentals
- Brooklyn Sales
- Queens Sales
- Westchester/Putnam Sales
- Long Island Sales
- Hamptons Sales
- North Fork Sales

South Florida
- Miami Sales
- Boca Raton Sales
- Fort Lauderdale Sales
- Palm Beach Sales

I’ve been writing this expanding report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994. You can also build custom data tables on information included in the reports using our aggregate database and a growing library of market charts.


[Fast Pace] 2Q 2013 Long Island Sales Report

July 26, 2013 | 10:39 am | delogo | Reports |

We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 2Q 2013.

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Fastest market pace since 2005 with absorption rate at 9.3 months.
  • Inventory fell sharply as closed sales and pending sales jumped.
  • Housing prices edged higher.
  • Tight credit continued to keep inventory off market.
  • Concern about rising mortgage rates pushed more buyers into the market.

Here’s an excerpt from the 2Q 2013 report:

…Although the pace of the Long Island market has been accelerating with more sales and less supply, prices continue to see only modest gains from the prior year levels. There were 16,300 listings in total inventory at the end of the second quarter, 17.5% less than in the same period last year. However, new inventory added to the market expanded by 8.7% to 12,292 over the same period, possibly providing some relief to homebuyers in the coming quarters…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 13 data. Check out the charts by browsing in our chart library.


The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Long Island Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

Tags:


[Defined by Low Supply] 1Q 2013 Long Island Sales Report

May 13, 2013 | 9:34 am | delogo | Reports |

We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 1Q 2013.

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

1Q 2013

  • Lowest first quarter listing total in a decade.
  • Signed contract volume jumped from year ago levels.
  • Housing prices remained generally stable, indicators mixed.
  • Limited supply beginning to apply upward pressure to stable markets.
  • Credit remains tight, restraining supply from entering market, no urgency to list.
  • Record low mortgage rates and release of pent-up demand keeping demand strong.
  • Less high end sales as tax-incentivized buyers rushed to close at the end of 2012.


Here’s an excerpt from the 1Q 2013 report:

…The lack of supply and rise of contract activity continued to define the Long Island housing market. Listing inventory fell to the lowest first quarter level seen in a decade as pending sales continued to rise. Despite the tightening of the market, overall price indicators remained mixed. The number of listings in inventory at the end of the first quarter fell 24.8% to 15,303 as compared to the same period last year, a ten year first quarter low…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 1Q 13 data. Check out the charts by browsing in our chart library.




The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Long Island Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Turning Corner?] 4Q 2012 + 2003-2012 Long Island Decade Reports

January 25, 2013 | 11:48 am | delogo | Reports |


[click to open reports]

We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 4Q 2012. Since this was the final quarter of 2012, we also released our Long Island Decade report, a ten year moving window data compendium of the Long Island market from 2003-2012

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

4Q 2012

  • Lowest fourth quarter inventory level in 8 years, down 21% from a year ago.
  • Year end rising momentum in sales as pending sales outpaced closed sales.
  • Price indicators were up across-the-board from a year ago.
  • Credit remains tight as economy slowly improves.
  • Inventory falling – low to negative equity, no urgency to list.
  • Sales rising as record low mortgage rates create demand.
  • A release in pent-up demand from election year and “fiscal cliff” concerns over rising taxes.

2003-2012

  • Sales increased for first time since 2006.
  • Median sales price up 3.2% over decade.
  • Market peak in price was 2006, same as the US housing market.
  • Housing prices have shown stability for 3 years.


Here’s an excerpt from the 4Q 2012 report:

…Long Island, like much of the greater New York region, is experiencing a chronic short of listing inventory. Steadily declining over the past several years, Long Island listing inventory reached an 8-year low in the fourth quarter. The large year-over-year drop in supply was met with an increased level of sales activity, both in terms of signed contracts and closed sales…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 4Q 12 and annual 2003-2012 data. I’ll post the updated charts soon. In the meantime you can browse our chart library.




The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2003-2012 Long Island Decade [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Douglas Elliman]
The Elliman Report: 2003-2012 Long Island Decade [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[More Activity, Later] 3Q 2012 Long Island Report

October 25, 2012 | 2:37 pm | delogo | Reports |

We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 3Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

Long Island

-Housing prices generally stable
-Listing inventory continues to fall sharply
-Pending sales outpaced closed sales reflecting a late season rise in activity
-Despite tight credit, record low mortgage rates are pulling more people into the market.





Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The pace of the Long Island housing market has been accelerating. The rise in sales and sharp decline in available inventory resulted in the fastest absorption rate in nearly six years. Contract signings rose faster than the pace of closings on both a quarterly and year-to-date basis. Median sales price was $365,000, unchanged from the prior year quarter. Average sales price saw a nominal 0.8% slip from $457,496 to $454,037 over the same period. The second, third, and fourth quintiles saw no or nominal changes in median sales price compared to the prior year quarter, while the first and fifth quintiles declined 2.2% and 2.9% respectively over the same period. There were 5,638 sales in the third quarter, 9.7% above 5,141 sales in the same period last year. Pending sales saw a larger gain over the same period, rising 12.9% to 5,436 from 4,813. Year-to-date, these metrics showed a similar pattern, reflecting the expanding activity levels later in the year…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 3Q 12 data. I’ll post the updated 3Q12 charts soon. In the meantime you can browse our chart library.




The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

Tags:


[Better Than Before] 2Q 2012 Long Island Report

July 27, 2012 | 9:36 am | delogo | Reports |

We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 2Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

Long Island

-Despite the warm winter and early start of the spring market, second quarter sales were up 8.9% over last year.
-Pending sales were up 6.4% above year ago levels.
-Median sales price was unchanged from prior and year ago quarters.
-Listing inventory fell 13.2% to a seven year low for the second quarter.
-Negotiability between buyer and seller and days on market remained stable.
-Falling mortgage rates driving demand, despite tight mortgage lending conditions.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The Long Island spring housing market was characterized by stable prices, falling inventory and rising sales activity. This occurred despite some of the tightest mortgage lending conditions in years, as well as elevated unemployment levels and a weak, but slowly improving, regional economy. There were 4,581 sales, 8.9% more than 4,205 in the prior year quarter. Pending sales showed a similar pattern, despite an unusually robust prior quarter, which was attributable to the atypically warm winter…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 12 data. You can browse our chart library for the latest – updated for 2Q 2012.




The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[The Housing Helix Podcast] 1Q 2010 Long Island Market Overview

April 25, 2010 | 6:34 pm | delogo | Podcasts |

Here’s a quick recap of the Long Island Market Overview I authored for Prudential Douglas Elliman that we released last Thursday.

Check out the podcast

The Housing Helix Podcast Interview List

You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.



[Limping Into Better Times] 1Q 2010 Long Island Market Overview Available For Download

April 22, 2010 | 7:54 am | delogo | Reports |


[click to view report]

The 1Q 2010 Long Island Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

For additional insight, view a series of charts we prepare outside of the report as well as general press coverage.

An excerpt

…After reaching a two-year high of 5,935 sales in the prior quarter, the number of sales fell 35.7% to 3,814 sales in the first quarter of 2010, which was 32.8% above the 2,872 sales in the same quarter last year. The rise in the number of sales over the past year resulted in a modest decline in listing inventory. There were 20,902 listings in the first quarter, down 8.9% from 22,942 listings in the prior year quarter, but 7.5% higher than 19,450 listings in the prior quarter. The uptick in listing inventory and decline in sales resulted in a rise in the monthly absorption rate— the number of months it would take to sell out existing inventory at the current pace of sales. The absorption rate was 16.4 months, down from 24 months in the prior year quarter, but higher than the 12.9 average monthly absorption rate for the past 5 years…

Download report 1Q 2010 Long Island Market Overview [Miller Samuel]
View Long Island charts [Miller Samuel]


Tags:


[The Housing Helix Podcast] Manhattan Townhouse/Ten Year, Hamptons North Fork/Long Island 4Q 2009 Reports

February 21, 2010 | 8:00 pm | Podcasts |

I’m playing catch-up with my podcasts over at the The Housing Helix and here’s a collection brief summaries on the latest reports we released.



[click to open podcast]


[click to open podcast]


[click to open podcast]


[click to open podcast]


[click to open podcast]

To get a copy of the reports go here.

The Housing Helix Podcast Interview List

You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.