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Manhattan

1Q 2014 Manhattan Sales Report Released, Records Reached

April 1, 2014 | 4:46 pm | delogo | Reports |

Manhattan_1Q_2014

Douglas Elliman published the Manhattan sales report today that I author. This report is part of an evolving series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Trends

  • Most first quarter sales in 7 years, but not expected to keep torrid pace.
  • Price per square foot sets 25-year record of $1,363.
  • Median sales price jumped 18.5% but remained 5.1% below 2008 peak.
  • Inventory was flat for first time in 3 years.
  • Comparisons against year ago levels skewed higher from brief “fiscal cliff” lull.
  • Credit remains tight partly due to implementation of QM – keeping inventory low.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

First quarter Manhattan housing market conditions included double-digit price gains from prior year levels as the sales mix shifted to larger units and a growing new development market share targeted the luxury market. Sales momentum from a record setting 2013 carried into the new year and listing inventory stabilized after twelve consecutive quarterly year-over-year declines.

Median sales price increased 18.5% to $972,428 from the last year, but remained 5.1% below the high water mark set in the second quarter of 2008 before the Lehman tipping point in the subsequent quarter. Average sales price jumped 30.9% to $1,773,523 from the same period last year due to a number of factors, including the rise in luxury new development market share, the increase in the average sales size and larger price gains at the upper end of the market. The average square footage of an apartment was 1,301, a 5.9% increase from the same period last year. The average price per square foot of a Manhattan apartment reached a record $1,363, 23.6% above year the prior year level…

There was heavy media coverage of the report release this quarter.




The Elliman Report: 1Q 14 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 14 Manhattan Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery [Miller Samuel]

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My New Book “Flash Appraisals” Just Passed Michael Lewis

April 1, 2014 | 2:38 pm | bloomberglogo |

bbmostreadterminal4-1-14

Coverage of my new book “Flash Appraisals” just passed Michael Lewis’ “Flash Boys” as “Most Read” on Bloomberg Worldwide.

Ok, ok, admittedly a lame attempt at April Fools’ Day humor….but if I wrote a book…

More importantly, Bloomberg News coverage of our recently released Manhattan market report for Douglas Elliman jumped into 4th place and passed the coverage of Michael Lewis’ new book (8th place) – I’m halfway through his book and it’s a fantastic read – so is Oshrat Carmiel’s article.

The market report article has been the number 1 most emailed article all day. Apparently real estate remains the backyard bbq conversation not unlike rigged high speed trading on Wall Street.

bbmostemailedterminal4-1-14

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New Record of Foreign-owned Assets in the United States

March 27, 2014 | 4:06 pm | wsjlogo |

3-14commerceForeignInvestors

According to the WSJ Real Time Economics Blog there are the record investment gains. This is good news/bad news…and:

has worried some economists, because it makes the U.S. more vulnerable to major shifts in the global economy. But it also could show strengthening confidence in the American economy.

These gains are largely due to the rising US stock prices rather than more investment. However in the housing sector, I do think rising property values are attracting even more new capital for investment – whether for new development or unit purchases. We can see this in markets like New York City and Miami. Foreign investors seem to be chasing safety and a long term equity play.

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[Three Cents Worth #264 NY] Tracking How High People Buy In Manhattan

March 25, 2014 | 4:59 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Spectators and participants in the Manhattan housing market have been burning a lot of calories talking about views, something the super luxury new development projects have been marketing as a key feature. I thought I’d look back over time to at what the average floor level of closed co-op and condo sales by quarter, and see if there is a pattern. I sifted through six years of data (note to self for rainy day: go back 25 years and break out condos and co-ops). While I’ve analyzed the value of floor level in Manhattan here and here before, I’ve never trended floor level and didn’t quite know what to expect…

[My post title was originally "Manhattan Rebound Not Because of Dizzying Heights" but wasn't Curbed staff didn't think it was catchy enough, ed.]

3cwNY3-25-14
[click to expand chart]



My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Tracking How High People Buy In Manhattan [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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Repost: Measuring Manhattan Values By Floor Level

March 25, 2014 | 1:36 pm | nymaglogo | Favorites |

In the spring of 2012 my floor level valuation methodology was illustrated in a great piece in New York Magazine by Jhoanna Robledo called “What Price Height and Light?. The graphic and accompanying descriptions provide incredible clarity to a fairly convoluted subject.

In the flurry of transitioning content to our new site over the past few months, I remember the actual moment when I deleted the original post for this topic by mistake and thought, “wow this is annoying but I can always go the Wayback Machine.” However, today someone asked me about the graphic and I couldn’t find my prior post on the Wayback Machine (but I found a bunch of cool stuff) so I am reposting this piece. I really LOVE the graphic that New York Magazine came up with.

The graphic is fairly self-explanatory.

nymag4-2012301w57

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The Changing Downtown Manhattan Waterfront 1876-2013

March 23, 2014 | 3:00 pm |

manhattandowntownskyline
[Source: Facebook - New York Off Road]

Spotted this post The Downtown Manhattan Skyline from 1876 to 2013 over at Untapped Cities who had reposted it from the New York Off Road Facebook page. Love it.

I can’t imagine how chaotic it must have been on the Manhattan waterfront more than 100 years ago.

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Spot the Manhattan Luxury Townhouse Lehman Effect?

March 23, 2014 | 10:03 am | bloomberglogo |

bb3-14luxTH

Ilan Kolet from Bloomberg News whipped up this chart and shared on twitter using our Manhattan luxury townhouse data.

Gotta love the visual – the 2008 Lehman collapse exemplified in the high end townhouse market in the home of Wall Street.

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The Manhattan & Brooklyn Rentals Side-by-Side Trend Comparison

March 20, 2014 | 12:50 pm |

Given the discussion about the narrowing gap between the Manhattan and Brooklyn Rental markets, I thought I’d place the rental price trends side by side to get a sense of how the two markets match up.

Manhattan
While the year-over-year Manhattan rental numbers have fallen short of the prior year, rents have remained fairly stable over the past 6 months:

2014-2Manhattan-medianYoY
[Click to expand]

Brooklyn
Brooklyn rental prices have been trending sharply higher to the point where the rental price spread between the two markets is at it’s lowest level every recorded (since 1/2008):

2014-2Brooklyn-medianYoY
[Click to expand]

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Manhattan’s Decade of Incredible Shrinking Apartment Sizes

March 19, 2014 | 12:30 pm | Charts |

I took a look at the last decade of Manhattan sales activity and broke out a bunch of neighborhoods and property types to compare their changes in average square footage from 2004 to 2013. I looked at the annual sales activity for both years and presented the percent change in the table below.

Takeaway

Rising costs over the decade have prompted small apartment sales at higher prices. New development activity that dominated the market in the middle of the last decade influenced sizes to shrink. This is distinctly different than the discussion about the shift in the mix towards larger apartments – ie more bedrooms.

matrix14manhattansqft
[click to expand]

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[Three Cents Worth #263 NY] Do Wall Street Bonuses Affect NYC Sales?

March 18, 2014 | 4:13 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

According to the 5/25 rule, the ratio of New York City jobs in the securities industry and the income they account for is 5 to 25: approximately 5 percent of NYC jobs come from the securities industry and they account for about 1/4 of personal income. With such a large, and disproportionate market share of NYC income, Wall Street has long been considered a lynchpin of the NYC real estate economy and perhaps most strongly aligned with Manhattan.

Still, it is a stretch to associate the ebb and flow as a predictor of future gains and losses in Manhattan housing prices, especially when considering deferred compensation. (Also, many Wall Streeters are getting paid from income deferred from a few years ago when times weren’t as good.) But it’s fun to chart. Especially after last week’s announcement by the State Comptroller of a 15.1 percent increase in both the Wall Street bonus pool and on a per person basis…

3cwNY3-18-14
[click to expand chart]



My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Do Wall Street Bonuses Affect NYC Sales? [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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