Here’s our first professional infographic of my market research for Douglas Elliman. It covers the just released Elliman Report: Manhattan Sales 1Q 2014. Here was my recent attempt at a hand-made infographic covering another topic using Excel.
Here’s an excerpt from the report:
First quarter Manhattan housing market conditions included double-digit price gains from prior year levels as the sales mix shifted to larger units and a growing new development market share targeted the luxury market. Sales momentum from a record setting 2013 carried into the new year and listing inventory stabilized after twelve consecutive quarterly year-over-year declines.
Median sales price increased 18.5% to $972,428 from the last year, but remained 5.1% below the high water mark set in the second quarter of 2008 before the Lehman tipping point in the subsequent quarter. Average sales price jumped 30.9% to $1,773,523 from the same period last year due to a number of factors, including the rise in luxury new development market share, the increase in the average sales size and larger price gains at the upper end of the market. The average square footage of an apartment was 1,301, a 5.9% increase from the same period last year. The average price per square foot of a Manhattan apartment reached a record $1,363, 23.6% above year the prior year level…
There was heavy media coverage of the report release this quarter.
Coverage of my new book “Flash Appraisals” just passed Michael Lewis’ “Flash Boys” as “Most Read” on Bloomberg Worldwide.
Ok, ok, admittedly a lame attempt at April Fools’ Day humor….but if I wrote a book…
More importantly, Bloomberg News coverage of our recently released Manhattan market report for Douglas Elliman jumped into 4th place and passed the coverage of Michael Lewis’ new book (8th place) – I’m halfway through his book and it’s a fantastic read – so is Oshrat Carmiel’s article.
The market report article has been the number 1 most emailed article all day. Apparently real estate remains the backyard bbq conversation not unlike rigged high speed trading on Wall Street.
has worried some economists, because it makes the U.S. more vulnerable to major shifts in the global economy. But it also could show strengthening confidence in the American economy.
These gains are largely due to the rising US stock prices rather than more investment. However in the housing sector, I do think rising property values are attracting even more new capital for investment – whether for new development or unit purchases. We can see this in markets like New York City and Miami. Foreign investors seem to be chasing safety and a long term equity play.
Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:
Spectators and participants in the Manhattan housing market have been burning a lot of calories talking about views, something the super luxury new development projects have been marketing as a key feature. I thought I’d look back over time to at what the average floor level of closed co-op and condo sales by quarter, and see if there is a pattern. I sifted through six years of data (note to self for rainy day: go back 25 years and break out condos and co-ops). While I’ve analyzed the value of floor level in Manhattan here and here before, I’ve never trended floor level and didn’t quite know what to expect…
[My post title was originally "Manhattan Rebound Not Because of Dizzying Heights" but wasn't Curbed staff didn't think it was catchy enough, ed.]
My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed:
Tracking How High People Buy In Manhattan [Curbed]
In the spring of 2012 my floor level valuation methodology was illustrated in a great piece in New York Magazine by Jhoanna Robledo called “What Price Height and Light?. The graphic and accompanying descriptions provide incredible clarity to a fairly convoluted subject.
In the flurry of transitioning content to our new site over the past few months, I remember the actual moment when I deleted the original post for this topic by mistake and thought, “wow this is annoying but I can always go the Wayback Machine.” However, today someone asked me about the graphic and I couldn’t find my prior post on the Wayback Machine (but I found a bunch of cool stuff) so I am reposting this piece. I really LOVE the graphic that New York Magazine came up with.
The graphic is fairly self-explanatory.
[Source: Facebook - New York Off Road]
I can’t imagine how chaotic it must have been on the Manhattan waterfront more than 100 years ago.
Given the discussion about the narrowing gap between the Manhattan and Brooklyn Rental markets, I thought I’d place the rental price trends side by side to get a sense of how the two markets match up.
While the year-over-year Manhattan rental numbers have fallen short of the prior year, rents have remained fairly stable over the past 6 months:
Brooklyn rental prices have been trending sharply higher to the point where the rental price spread between the two markets is at it’s lowest level every recorded (since 1/2008):
I took a look at the last decade of Manhattan sales activity and broke out a bunch of neighborhoods and property types to compare their changes in average square footage from 2004 to 2013. I looked at the annual sales activity for both years and presented the percent change in the table below.
Rising costs over the decade have prompted small apartment sales at higher prices. New development activity that dominated the market in the middle of the last decade influenced sizes to shrink. This is distinctly different than the discussion about the shift in the mix towards larger apartments – ie more bedrooms.