Matrix Blog

Miami (Beach + Mainland)

Real Estate ChartArt in Elliman Magazine’s Fall 2017 Issue

September 18, 2017 | 3:12 pm | | Charts |

Douglas Elliman Real Estate just published their fall issue. I created the content for pages 208-209 and I think it looks pretty snazzy (and interesting).

Click on image below to expand.

EllimanMag

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“Kleptocracy Initiative” to Stop Money Laundering in Real Estate up for Renewal

January 23, 2017 | 9:03 am | Infographics |

Almost two years ago the real estate new development world was rocked by the New York Times epic page one story by Louise Story and Stephanie Saul about foreign investment in U.S. real estate. The vehicle for “Towers of Secrecy” purchases was the ubiquitous LLC shell corporation. While I’m no advocate of illegal activity for the sake of preserving the health of a real estate market, I was very skeptical and outspoken about the challenge of measuring the impact of this new rule. Especially since the new development market had already started to show signs of over supply by mid 2014 in both Manhattan above $3M and Miami above $1M. It also seemed to single out wealthy buyers who did not want to get a mortgage. How could the effectiveness of this six month rule be measured reliably enough to be extended or made permanent when the market was already falling?

Since these series of articles came out, I have learned a lot more about the scale of kleptocracy around the world and more appreciative of what the rule attempted to accomplish.

MHjmkleptocracycallout

Fast forward to 2017 and the super lux (≥$5M) new development condo market cooled sharply. The rule has been extended but is now up for renewal in a month. It is not clear whether the new administration will renew it. Nicholas Nehamas of the Miami Herald penned are great recap of the rule status. To make it even better, he included a YouTube video of bulldozers playing chicken in the piece.

I have to say I admire the messaging that came out of Homeland Security to justify the rule’s impact. Whether or not the following is an exageration, the mere existance of the rule is probably an effective deterent.

“We don’t come across [money laundering in real estate] once every 10 or 12 cases,” said John Tobon, U.S. Homeland Security Investigations Deputy Special Agent in Charge for South Florida. “We come across real estate being purchased with illicit funds once every other case.”

Here are the areas current covered by the Treasury rule.

MHfingencoverage

Using the parameters of the rule, the Miami Herald asked that I analyze sales in the five boroughs of NYC since enactment.  I stuck with condos and 1-3 families since co-ops tend not be a preferred property type of foreign buyers. I found that sales dropped 6% year over year for the aggregate of Manhattan sales over $3M and the outer borough sales of $1.5M. This included legacy contracts that closed during the rule enactment period but went to contract before it started. Those sales likely softened the actual decline in sales.

MHsalessinceFinGen

While it appears reasonable that the rule had some drag on demand, a possible repeal in February won’t likely have much of an impact on the oversupply that currently exists.

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[Video] Providing the right context for Manhattan and Miami housing markets

April 2, 2016 | 11:48 am | | Favorites |

I really enjoyed my interview over at Yahoo! Finance this week discussing the release of the Elliman Report: Manhattan Sales 1Q 2016. Love their longer interview format.

Note the “two comma” reference taken from the HBO show Silicon Valley:

Miller also rejects the thesis that Manhattan’s two-comma real estate prices were being fueled solely by foreign money and are now jeopardized by global uncertainty and a stronger dollar versus emerging market currencies.

Additional insights on the report shared on the recent edition of Housing Notes. Sign up here.

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Tracking the Flock of (Ultrawealthy) Seagulls

March 6, 2016 | 10:02 am | |

There has been voluminous discussion in recent years about following and marketing to the high end of the demographic scale, especial the real estate market. It’s been the focus of much of the new housing development action of the past five years, especially in big U.S. coastal cities. The high end development market has been widely chronicled here and within my weekly Housing Notes newsletter.

For buyers in the super luxury housing market, owning multiple homes is less about a primary residence with a second home and more about owning “stops on the big circuit.”

And as the rich own a greater share of real estate, major cities like New York, Los Angeles and London are going through a kind of “resortification,” familiar to posh beach towns or ski resorts, as their populations become more seasonal.

For Manhattan, these birds are rare in February and squawking on all treetops (bad pun for super tall condo penthouses) at full capacity in June.

nytcityhopping

And no, I never liked that band.

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[Three Cents Worth #284 Miami] Miami Drill Down: Picking Up the Scraps of the Financial Crisis

May 21, 2015 | 8:00 pm | | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed Miami, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the Magic City. And I’m taking notes on the beach.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedMiami:

As we make our way through the second quarter (more than halfway!), I took a look at some trends extracted from the first quarter reports we prepare for Douglas Elliman. I went all out and created a four charter that addresses a number of issues born out of the financial crisis that still touch the current market..

3cw5-20-15

[click to expand chart]


My latest Three Cents Worth column: Three Cents Worth: Miami Drill Down: Picking Up the Scraps of the Financial Crisis [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed LA

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Ski

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Speaking at ULI Miami Condo Market Symposium

December 30, 2014 | 8:24 pm | | Public |

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Since it’s the end of the year, I’ve been thinking about some of my favorite events 2014. This past November, I was invited to keynote and moderate the main panel at the Urban Land Institute’s, Southeast FL/Caribbean District Council’s Miami Condo Market Symposium.

My panel included the heavy hitters of condo development and brokerage in South Florida – who spoke candidly in front of a sold out venue at the Epic Residences & Hotel:

– Ugo Colombo, Founder, CMC Group Inc.
– Eduardo Costantini, Chairman, Consultatio Real Estate Inc.
– Richard LeFrak, Chairman & CEO, LeFrak Organization
– Howard Lorber, CEO, Vector Group Ltd. & Chairman, Douglas Elliman
– Jorge Perez, Chairman, CEO & Founder, The Related Group

A recap of my panel and the other speakers and panels…

Photos…
ULIjjmkeynoteULIjjmLeFrakPerez
ULIjjmpanel13ULIjjmpanel12

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Bloomberg View Column: The $10 Million Home, Never Hotter

November 30, 2014 | 1:00 pm | |

BVlogo

Read my latest Bloomberg View column The $10 Million Home, Never Hotter. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

As the U.S. housing market cools from last year’s overheated state, sales of homes at the top haven’t been following the same script. Prices and sales at the upper reaches are soaring…

[read more]


My Bloomberg View Column Directory

My Bloomberg View RSS feed.

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North America Leads Luxury Housing Trends in 2Q14 – Knight Frank

July 30, 2014 | 12:34 pm | |

KFpgci2q14NA

Knight Frank published their quarterly Prime Global Cities Index today and North America led the way as a region with a 14.5% rise in prices. “Prime” translates to “Luxury” in US housingspeak. We provide research for their Manhattan and Miami results through the Elliman Reports we prepare.

The report conclusion succinctly summarizes the state of high end housing today and speaks to the global phenomenon:

…the index’s annual increase of 6.2% in the year to June is above the long-run average of 4.6% recorded since Lehman’s collapse in the third quarter of 2008, underlining the extent to which prime property has become a favoured asset class globally.

Here’s the table…

KFpgci2q14
[click on table to open report]

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[Infographic] Getting Graphic in South Florida in 1Q 2014

April 18, 2014 | 4:30 pm | | Infographics |

Here’s a jumbo infographic from Douglas Elliman covering the findings of the four market reports in South Florida we prepare for them. Thank goodness Matrix can handle super tall images.

1q14infographicelliman-florida


[Ready, Set, Download] South Florida Market Reports 1Q 2014

April 18, 2014 | 4:01 pm | | Reports |

Our 4 comprehensive reports for Douglas Elliman on the residential sales markets for Miami, Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach this week.

Click on each report to download!

Miami_1Q14

MIAMI
With the Miami housing market well into the third year of its recovery, rising prices have begun to pull listing inventory into the market. Median sales price increased 16.1% to $244,000, the highest point reached since 2008. Average sales price jumped 19.1% to $461,374 over last year to a 5 year high and average price per square foot exceeded $305 per square foot for the first time in 6 years. Listing inventory bottomed in the second quarter of 2013, trending higher, up 15.2% to 12,664 from the prior year quarter. Along with the rise in supply, demand continued to rise. The number of sales rose 3.9% to 5,133 from the prior year quarter, to the highest first quarter total in the 8 years this metric has been tracked. The market share of distressed sales, once the majority of the market, continued to decline. Excluding short sales and foreclosures, market share rose to 69.4%, the highest level reached in the 4 years this metric has been tracked. The number of distressed listings and distressed With the Miami housing market well into the third year of its recovery, rising prices have begun to pull listing inventory into the market. Median sales price increased 16.1% to $244,000, the highest point reached since 2008. Average sales price jumped 19.1% to $461,374 over last year to a 5 year high and average price per square foot exceeded $305 per square foot for the first time in 6 years…

BocaRaton_1Q14

BOCA RATON
CONDO Median sales price surged 16.3% to $150,000 and average sales price declined 8.8% to $229,569 respectively from the prior year quarter. Listing discount, the percent difference between the list price at time of contract and the sales price, rose to 7% from 3.8% in the prior year quarter, but fell from 7.7% in the prior quarter…

SINGLE FAMILY Median sales price jumped 19.4% to $370,000 and average sales price rose 5.3% to $528,616 respectively from the prior year quarter. Listing discount edged up to 6.9% from 6.1% in the prior year quarter, as sellers were slightly more optimistic when determining their listing price…

FtLauderdale_1Q14

FORT LAUDERDALE
CONDO Median sales price jumped 19.8% to $255,000 from the same quarter last year, the highest level reached since 2008. Average sales price followed the same pattern, rising 23.9% to $379,391 over the same period also reaching a 5 year high.

SINGLE FAMILY The average time to market a property was 91 days, essentially unchanged from 90 days in the prior year quarter. Listing discount, the percentage difference between the list price at time of contract and the sales price, jumped to 8.1% from 4.5% as sellers pressed list prices higher than market trends support.

PalmBeach_1Q14

PALM BEACH
CONDO There were 68 sales during the quarter, 25.9% more than the same period last year. Listing inventory fell 16.9% to 360 over the same period. As a result the absorption rate, the number of months to sell all inventory at the current pace of sales, fell 34% to 15.9 months from the same period last year. The faster market pace pushed down days on market, the number of days from the last price change to the contract date, by 10 days to an average of 182 days.

SINGLE FAMILY Median sales price increased 10.7% to $3,100,000 from the prior year quarter to the highest first quarter reached since 2009. Average sales price jumped 56.7% to $6,450,093 over the same period. The average square footage of a sale was 5,261, up 20.9% from the prior year quarter.

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Overwhelming Visual Recap of Prior ‘Three Cents Worth’ Columns #250 to #256

February 3, 2014 | 8:31 pm | | Charts |

Ok, that’s a lot of hyperbole, the charts do look pretty cool all lined up below. Although the Matrix blog was quiet as we transitioned to a new web site, I still wrote a bunch of posts on Curbed over the past several months and thought I’d share. Here’s the list. Click on each blog title to go to the full post.

December 18, 2013 Curbed NY #256 Finding 2014 Clues In Oft-Overlooked Data 3cwNY12-18-13

December 10, 2013 Curbed NY #255 Dogging Manhattan Apartment Values 3cwNY12-10-13

December 3, 2013 Curbed NY #254 Tallest Rental Chart in Manhattan History 3cwNY12-3-13thumb

November 27, 2013 Curbed NY #253 Charting Manhattan’s So Not Tryptophan-Like Absorption Rate 3cwNY11-27-13

November 19, 2013 Curbed NY #252 Sales Prices Way More Volatile Than Rents 3cwNY11-19-13

November 14, 2013 Curbed NY #251 Manhattan Listings May Have Bottomed 3cwNY11-14-13


Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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[Three Cents Worth #249 Miami] The Miami Housing Trend Breakdown

October 28, 2013 | 7:56 pm | | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed Miami, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the Magic City. And I’m taking notes on the beach.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedMiami:

Miami has become a market with a lot of moving parts so it’s best not to throw all the data into one bucket and call it a day. Last week Douglas Elliman released the 4 South Florida market reports I author for them including Miami and this week’s charts were taken from data compiled in the report. I presented a bunch of metrics in the single family and condo market broken out by the distressed and non-distressed markets. Distressed property are defined here as short sales and foreclosures…

[click to expand chart]

 


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: The Miami Housing Trend Breakdown [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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