Matrix Blog

New York City (5 Boro Aggregate)

[Three Cents Worth #271 NY] How New York’s Average Sales Price Broke the $1 Million Mark

November 4, 2014 | 4:00 pm | curbed | Columns |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Although it has been a little more than a month since the third quarter ended, I thought I’d show that the average sales price of the five boroughs in aggregate broke the $1 million threshold for the first time, to a record $1,040,516…

3cw11-4-14
[click to expand chart]


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: How New York’s Average Sales Price Broke the $1 Million Mark [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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Bloomberg View Column: Rent Control’s Winners and Losers

October 21, 2014 | 3:31 pm | BloombergViewlogoGray | Columns |

BVlogo

Read my latest Bloomberg View column Rent Control’s Winners and Losers. Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View. Here’s an excerpt…

Any renter in New York City has probably has felt the pain of coming up with the monthly payment. There are plenty of reasons for the city’s steep rents…

..So what would happen if rent control and its cousin, rent stabilization, disappeared overnight?

[read more]


My Bloomberg View Column Directory

My Bloomberg View RSS feed.

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[Three Cents Worth #267 NY] NYC Sets New Record Average Sales Price

August 5, 2014 | 3:17 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Although our NYC market reports only cover Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens, I also track Staten Island and The Bronx for fun. For the second quarter 2014 NYC analysis, I observed two new records:

1. The average sales price for NYC residential real estate (co-ops, condos and 1-3 family sales) reached a record $975,441 (pink line).

2. The average sales price for NYC residential real estate excluding Manhattan reached a record $542,216 (orange line).



2q14NYC-ASPspread [click to expand charts]


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: NYC Sets New Record Average Sales Price [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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If Choosing Suburbs: Surge in NYC High Wage Earners Choosing NY-NJ-CT

July 21, 2014 | 2:11 pm |

IBOmoversstudy2014
[click to expand]

According to New York City’s IBO, in 2012, there were actually 5 times more moves to Florida than to adjacent Connecticut.

However when breaking the movers into 2 categories: households with real income below and above $500,000, the results really change. New York, New Jersey and Connecticut enjoyed a large increase of high income movers from New York City. The California market share in this category of movers collapsed.

But it is important to recognize that the high wage earners only represent 1.8% of total movers. Florida is still the third most popular destination for movers from NYC who are mere mortals.

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Bloomberg Surveillance TV – Guest Host 6-25-14

June 25, 2014 | 8:30 am | bloomberg_news_logo | Videos |


UPDATE: above clip just added – expanded conversation.

Got to guest host an hour (6am to 7am) of Bloomberg Television’s Surveillance with Tom Keene, Scarlett Fu and Adam Johnson to talk housing. The above is just a couple of minutes of the hour (yes, you’re spared). We spoke about Case Shiller, New Home Sales, biting in World Cup Soccer, my fireman son using a GoPro in fires and LeBron/Carmelo’s real worth among other things. Like I said, we did talk housing.

Adam brought up a great point – while the economy is always characterized as 70% consumer driven, 16% of that is actually health care spending so the overall number is really 54%.

Very smart conversations (the topic of biting included). Always fun to join them.

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[Fox Business TV] Risk & Reward with Deirdre Bolton 5-29-14

May 29, 2014 | 4:43 pm | realtytraclogo | Videos |

It was great to reconnect with Deirdre Bolton after she made the move to Fox Business from her long time home at Bloomberg TV.

We talked housing, touching on NAR’s pending home sale index release as well as research from Realtytrac concerning record prices in a growing number of urban markets.

Fun.

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Documentary: The Coney Island Zipper, A Land Use Battle

May 25, 2014 | 9:12 pm |

coneyislandzipper
[click to view film on PBS until 4/1/17]

I saw the documentary: ZIPPER: CONEY ISLAND’S LAST WILD RIDE (here’s the trailer) over the weekend on the land use battle in Coney Island. I like the filmmakers’ focus on the guys that ran the “Zipper” (the ride is guaranteed to make me throw up) to humanize the development battle between NYC, Coney Island residents and the developer. Plus you can’t go wrong with a good Blue Oyster Cult song in the opening.

After watching the documentary (you can purchase or rent it here), you can’t help but see how difficult it is to develop property in NYC striking a balance between community needs with economic feasibility as well as navigate political power and government.

This difficulty is a key reason why residential housing costs are so high in most urban markets.

Still, a new ride in Coney Island was just opened – The Thunderbolt Roller Coaster.

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[Video] TRD Forum: Getting A Sense of the New Development Frenzy

May 23, 2014 | 4:24 pm | trdlogo | Videos |

I stumbled across this clip taken at the recent New Development Showcase hosted by The Real Deal. The publisher and founder, Amir Korangy, pulls off a couple of well-timed video-bombs!

This video gives you a good sense of the excitement, if not frenzy in the residential development space in New York City. There was a long line of people waiting to enter the venue for the event when I arrived.

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[TRD] Here’s The New Development Showcase Panel, Including Heckler

May 20, 2014 | 6:30 am | trdlogo | Videos |

The Real Deal has posted the full video of the panel discussion I participated on last week with developers Steve Witkoff, Miki Naftali and Michael Stern. The Real Deal’s publisher Amir Korangy deftly kept the conversation going and candid, despite the technical challenges, sweltering heat and a heckler (i.e. just another day in NYC).

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Zillow is Forecasting Future Property Values

May 14, 2014 | 10:42 am |

zillow-logo

“I may be cool, but you can’t change the future” -Beavis & Butthead.

Zillow has recently re-announced it is forecasting the value of each property out over the next year. It’s not a new tool for them, at least conceptually since the “What is a Zestimate Forecast?” page was last updated on October 3, 2012.

In a world with Big Data, it’s clearly inevitable to see an expansion of the capabilities of services from firms like Zillow and Trulia as their data set grows. Zillow’s Zestimate was a key web site feature at their launch (no listings!), but the company lit the real estate housing market industry on fire, establishing Zillow as a powerful brand that was here to stay, even if the Zestimate tool was problematic.

The challenges facing the Zillow Forecast tool

The Zestimates are still dependent on the quality of public record
Many markets (ie NYC), have quality-challenged public record. But as time passes, Zillow’s data set gets bigger and their logarithms get better and I have not doubt that the reliability will continue to improve.

If the Zestimate is wrong, the forecast will be wrong
Take a look at this chart on the highest price closed sale in Manhattan:

15cpwzestimatechart

This is perhaps Manhattan’s most famous “trophy” sale of the past several years, 15 Central Park West. The property sold for $88M but the Zestimate at the time of sale indicated the value was $72M. However today the value is $11.9M and the forecast estimated an 8.6% increase next year to $12.9M.

15cpwlandingpage

The Zestimate Forecast projects the current Zestimate out over the next year using a bunch of indicators

Zillow uses:
-mortgage interest rate (local, but not much different than national)
-property tax rate(local)
-construction costs(local)
-number of vacant homes(assumed local)
-percentage of loans that are subprime(assumed local)
-percentage of delinquent loans (assumed local)
-supply of homes for sale (local)
-change in household income (somewhat local, huge lag time)
-population growth (somewhat local, huge lag time)
-unemployment rate (somewhat local, lag time)

I feel that most of these indicators, when considered as a group, are important to consider won’t capture the nuance of next year’s view because they either lag or aren’t granular enough to be a key influence on value trends over a short period. I would think Zillow would add search patterns and other “Internety” things to leverage their proprietary data to help with accuracy. I’d also consider “new inventory”, not just total inventory (supply) to help catch the nuances of a tight time frame of forecasting.

The key national factor driving nearly all housing markets now – credit – is really hard to quantify.

Still, forecasts are the future (sorry) and kudos to Zillow for taking the first step, even though the results, like the early days of the Zestimate, are probably not very accurate.

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