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Philadelphia

Is Gentrification a Four Letter Word?

March 5, 2014 | 11:00 am | nytlogo |

dieyuppiescum

Back in mid 1980′s the front door of a new condo conversion at One Tompkins Square Park was spray painted with words “Die Yuppie Scum” and it became the battle cry for protests against gentrification of the East Village. With the eastward push of new residential development in the 1980s from the West and Central Village, residents and local businesses worried about being priced out and losing the intangibles that made the neighborhood unique – and that they would disappear along with it.

I remember appraising apartments to the east of Tompkins Square Park, seeing squatters inhabit derelict buildings, observing a burned out school bus on blocks in front of a newly converted walk-up and the self-described “Anarchists” in the park. All that is gone.

Recent discussions about gentrification have been more visible of late – and so have the discussions of the benefits of gentrification.

Merriam-Webster defines gentrification as:

the process of renewal and rebuilding accompanying the influx of middle-class or affluent people into deteriorating areas that often displaces poorer residents

Philadelphia is one of the first cities to tackle the issue in an attempt to keep the long time residents there and in doing so, helping to minimize the loss of the character of the neighborhood. It is fascinating and encouraging to see city governments be proactive on the issue since it costs money in the short term.

The initiatives, planned or underway in Boston, Philadelphia, Washington, Pittsburgh and other cities, are centered on reducing or freezing property taxes for such homeowners in an effort to promote neighborhood stability, preserve character and provide a dividend of sorts to those who have stayed through years of high crime, population loss and declining property values, officials say.

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1Q 2010 Philadelphia Housing Resumes Downward Slide

May 4, 2010 | 10:01 pm |

This quarterly market report is provided by Dr. Kevin Gillen, an economist and Research Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Institute for Urban Research. He analyzes the Philadelphia real estate market using the city’s real estate database through Econsult, an economics consulting firm based in Philadelphia PA that provides statistical & econometric analysis in support of litigation as well as business and public policy decision-makers. His results are published in a research paper called Philadelphia House Price Indices each quarter as a public service to the Philadelphia real estate community. Here’s his methodology.

Kevin does a great job parsing out the market and it is a pleasure to share his results on Matrix …Jonathan Miller

Download the report and Kevin’s commentary.

Observations

A struggling economy and “snow-mageddon” took its toll on Philadelphia’s housing market this past winter, with the most recent home sales data indicating that both house prices and sales activity took another hit during the most recent quarter.

After a year in which the market signaled some signs of finally stabilizing, house prices fell citywide in the first quarter of 2010. The typical Philadelphia home declined in value by an average of 4% on a quality- and seasonally- adjusted basis this past winter, according to the latest analysis by Econsult economist Kevin Gillen. This was the largest quarterly decline since the winter of 2009. From the housing market’s peak in 2006 to date, the average Philadelphia home has now fallen in value by a total of 11%…



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4Q 2009 Philadelphia Housing Holds Steady, Sales Post Unusual Increase

January 26, 2010 | 12:01 am |

This quarterly market report is provided by Dr. Kevin Gillen, an economist and Research Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Institute for Urban Research. He analyzes the Philadelphia real estate market using the city’s real estate database through Econsult, an economics consulting firm based in Philadelphia PA that provides statistical & econometric analysis in support of litigation as well as business and public policy decision-makers. His results are published in a research paper called Philadelphia House Price Indices each quarter as a public service to the Philadelphia real estate community. Here’s his methodology.

Kevin does a great job parsing out the market and it is a pleasure to share his results on Matrix …Jonathan Miller

Download the report and Kevin’s commentary.

Observations

The most recent home sales data indicate a solidifying of the local housing market’s condition after several years of both declining sales and prices.

After two years of falling prices, prices held steady for the third consecutive quarter in 2009 Q4. The typical Philadelphia home rose in value by 0.5% on a quality- and seasonally- adjusted basis this past fall, according to the latest analysis by Econsult economist Kevin Gillen. From the housing market’s peak in 2006 to the recent trough of last winter, the average Philadelphia home had fallen in value by a total of 10.5%. But with the market’s apparent stabilization in the latter part of 2009, the average Philadelphia home has recovered 3.5% of its lost value, thereby reducing its total loss to only 7% since the bursting of the national housing bubble several years ago.



3Q 2009 Philadelphia Housing Recovery Sputters

October 28, 2009 | 12:20 am |

This quarterly market report is provided by Dr. Kevin Gillen, an economist and Research Fellow at the University of Pennsylvania’s Institute for Urban Research. He analyzes the Philadelphia real estate market using the city’s real estate database through Econsult, an economics consulting firm based in Philadelphia PA that provides statistical & econometric analysis in support of litigation as well as business and public policy decision-makers. His results are published in a research paper called Philadelphia House Price Indices each quarter as a public service to the Philadelphia real estate community. Here’s his methodology.

Kevin does a great job parsing out the market and it is a pleasure to share his results on Matrix —Jonathan Miller

Download the report and Kevin’s commentary.

Here’s his recent press coverage on the findings.

The most recent home sales figures suggest a slowing in the momentum of the housing market’s attempt to recover from its current slump.

Following the first quarterly increase in citywide house prices after two years of falling prices, the typical Philadelphia home rose in value by a scant 0.2% on a quality—and seasonally— adjusted basis this past summer, according to the latest analysis by Econsult economist Kevin Gillen. Following on the heels of a robust increase of 6.8% this past spring, Philadelphia house values appear to still be struggling to regain the value they lost over the past two years. With these losses in value netted against these two recent increases, the typical Philadelphia home has lost 8% of its value since the bursting of the national housing bubble over two years ago.

UPDATE: Greater Philadelphia Regional House Price Indices now available.

After experiencing the first increase in region-wide house prices in nearly two years this past spring, the Greater Philadelphia region slowed in the rate of appreciation this past summer. (November 11, 2009)



2Q 2009 Philadelphia Prices Show Uptick, Sales Remain Low

July 30, 2009 | 10:28 am |

This quarterly market report is provided by Dr. Kevin Gillen, an economist at the Real Estate Department of the Wharton School and Fellow of the University of Pennsylvania. He analyzes the Philadelphia real estate market using the city’s real estate database through Econsult, an economics consulting firm based in Philadelphia PA that provides statistical & econometric analysis in support of litigation as well as business and public policy decision-makers. His results are published in a research paper called Philadelphia House Price Indices each quarter as a public service to the Philadelphia real estate community. Here’s his methodology.

Kevin does a great job parsing out the market and it is a pleasure to share his results on Matrix —Jonathan Miller

Download the report and Kevin’s commentary.

Here’s some press coverage on the findings.

After seven consecutive quarters of declining house prices, the typical Philadelphia home actually rose in value by an average of 6.8% on a quality- and seasonally- adjusted basis this past spring, according to the latest analysis by Wharton and Econsult economist Kevin Gillen. This is a reversal from nearly two years of price declines. And, when added to previous price declines, Philadelphia house values are down cumulatively by 12% from the local market’s peak of two years ago.

UPDATE: Kevin released his Philadelphia Regional House Price Indices, 2009 Q2 which includes the Philly perimeter of outlying counties in Pennsylvannia, Delaware and New Jersey.

The Greater Philadelphia Region’s housing market exhibited some signs of stabilizing this past quarter, with both house sales and prices showing modest increases. (August 12, 2009)



[World Series Undervaluation] Philly Real Estate Declines, But Less Than Other Metro Areas

April 27, 2009 | 11:31 am |

This quarterly market report is provided by Dr. Kevin Gillen, an economist at the Real Estate Department of the Wharton School and Fellow of the University of Pennsylvania. He analyzes the Philadelphia real estate market using the city’s real estate database through Econsult, an economics consulting firm based in Philadelphia PA that provides statistical & econometric analysis in support of litigation as well as business and public policy decision-makers. His results are published in a research paper called Philadelphia House Price Indices each quarter as a public service to the Philadelphia real estate community. Here’s his methodology [pdf].

Kevin does a great job parsing out the market and it is a pleasure to share his results on Matrix —Jonathan Miller

Download the full report [pdf].

Read Kevin’s analysis: Philadelphia’s Housing Market Deteriorates Sharply in Q1: But city now considered “under-valued” for the first time since 2003.

According to the latest analysis by Wharton and Econsult economist Kevin Gillen, the typical Philadelphia home fell in value by an average of 8.4% on a quality- and seasonally- adjusted basis this past winter. This is an accelerated rate of decline from previous quarters. And, when added to previous price declines, Philadelphia house values are down cumulatively by 17.1% from the local market’s peak of nearly two years ago.

  • Price changes across the city’s neighborhoods were uniformly negative, with no areas exhibiting any price appreciation.
  • According to the data, 2,530 homes transacted under arms-length conditions this past winter; an all-time low.
  • …it still seems to out-perform its peers in its relatively low foreclosure rate.
  • Philadelphia’s housing is now actually considered to be under-valued.



[Crack in the Bell] Philly Real Estate Declines, But Less Than Other Metro Areas

January 26, 2009 | 12:12 am |

This quarterly market report is provided by Dr. Kevin Gillen, an economist at the Real Estate Department of the Wharton School and Fellow of the University of Pennsylvania. He analyzes the Philadelphia real estate market using the city’s real estate database through Hallwatch, a watchdog group. The results are published in a research paper called Philadelphia House Price Indices each quarter as a public service to the Philadelphia real estate community. Here’s his methodology [pdf].

Kevin does a great job parsing out the market and its a pleasure to share his results on Matrix —Jonathan Miller

Download the full report [pdf].

Read the Hallwatch article on the market: Decline in Home Values Accelerates: But city still continues to outperform most other large U.S. metro markets.

But while the Philadelphia’ market has declined less than many other U.S. cities, the news here is still sobering:

  • The number of homes that actually sold under arms-length conditions in Q4 stood at just over 3,400; which was a dramatic 25% drop from Q3 and the lowest level of home sales since 2002 Q4.
  • Inventories (homes listed for sale) still stand at all-time high levels. As of December 2008, there were nearly 10,000 houses listed for sale in Philadelphia, which is still well above their pre- bubble average.
  • The continued high number of homes for sale combined with a continuously shrinking pool of buyers means homes continue to linger on the market. The average time it took to sell a home in Philadelphia in Q4 rose to 74 days, which is well above the 30-40 days it typically takes in a balanced market.

More discussion concerning the report [Hallwatch.org]. Hallwatch is a private and independently maintained watchdog website that does a lot of in-depth, independent and investigative pieces on city politics, as well as real estate.



[Cheesesteak Bucks Trend] Philly Real Estate Housing Sees Modest Declines

November 6, 2008 | 2:09 pm |

This quarterly market report is provided by Dr. Kevin Gillen, an economist at the Real Estate Department of the Wharton School and Fellow of the University of Pennsylvania. He analyzes the Philadelphia real estate market using the city’s real estate database through Hallwatch, a watchdog group. The results are published in a research paper called Philadelphia House Price Indices each quarter as a public service to the Philadelphia real estate community. Here’s his methodology [pdf].

Kevin does a great job parsing out the market and its a pleasure to share his results on Matrix —Jonathan Miller

Download the full report [pdf].

Read the Hallwatch article on the market: Philly real estate: low level of sales, price changes mixed

But while the Philadelphia’ market has declined less than many other U.S. cities, the news here is still sobering:

  • Inventories (homes listed for sale) still stand at all- time high levels. As of September, there were nearly 11,000 houses listed for sale in Philadelphia, nearly double their pre- bubble average.
  • The number of homes that actually sold under arms-length conditions in Q3 stood at just over 4,500; well below the nearly 8,000 that was the average during the boom years.
  • The continued high number of homes for sale combined with a continuously shrinking pool of buyers means homes continue to linger on the market. The average time it took to sell a home in Philadelphia in Q3 was 67 days, which is well above the 30-40 days it takes in a balanced market.
  • And, while Philadelphia’s rate of foreclosure is well below the average for most large U.S. cities, it is nonetheless up nearly 50% from one year ago.

More discussion concerning the report [Hallwatch.org]. Hallwatch is a private and independently maintained watchdog website that does a lot of in-depth, independent and investigative pieces on city politics, as well as real estate.



[Like Whipped Cream Cheese] Philly Real Estate: Fewer Sales, Higher Prices

August 25, 2008 | 11:09 pm |

This quarterly market report is provided by Dr. Kevin Gillen, an economist at the Real Estate Department of the Wharton School and Fellow of the University of Pennsylvania. He analyzes the Philadelphia real estate market using the city’s real estate database through Hallwatch, a watchdog group. The results are published in a research paper called Philadelphia House Price Indices each quarter as a public service to the Philadelphia real estate community. Here’s his methodology [pdf].

Kevin does a great job parsing out the market and its a pleasure to share his results on Matrix —Jonathan Miller

Download the full report [pdf].

Read the Hallwatch article on the market: Philly real estate: fewer sales, higher prices in some areas

Here is one of the key points:

Although Philadelphia’s house prices may be resisting their continued declines, home sales continued their downward plunge this spring. Even though spring is normally the busiest time of year for housing transactions, only 4,546 dwellings changed hands under arms-length conditions this past quarter. This is a 25% drop from spring 2007, and a 42% drop from the housing boom’s peak in the summer of 2005.

More discussion concerning the report [Hallwatch.org]. Hallwatch is a private and independently maintained watchdog website that does a lot of in-depth, independent and investigative pieces on city politics, as well as real estate.



[Liberty Bell Crack] Philadelphia Housing Market Sees Brisk Drop

May 12, 2008 | 9:56 pm |

This quarterly market report is provided by Dr. Kevin Gillen, an economist at the Real Estate Department of the Wharton School and Fellow of the University of Pennsylvania. He analyzes the Philadelphia real estate market using the city’s real estate database through Hallwatch, a watchdog group. The results are published in a research paper called Philadelphia House Price Indices each quarter as a public service to the Philadelphia real estate community. Here’s his methodology [pdf].

Kevin does a great job parsing out the market and its a pleasure to share his results on Matrix —Jonathan Miller

Download the full report [pdf].

Read the Hallwatch article on the market: City housing market: brisk decline continues

The Philadelphia real estate market is showing price and sales declines. Here are some key points:

  • the typical Philadelphia home fell in value last quarter by an average of 2.7% after accounting for quality and season.
  • Just 4,000 homes changed hands under arms-length conditions in Q1, which is a 15% drop from the 4,725 homes that sold last fall. Although home sales volume usually declines in the winter months, this was the slowest winter since 2003.
  • The number of homes listed for sale stayed approximately flat throughout the winter at just under 11,000 units.
  • The average time it took for a home to sell rose to an all-time high of 77 days.

More discussion concerning the report [Hallwatch.org]. Hallwatch is a private and independently maintained watchdog website that does a lot of in-depth, independent and investigative pieces on city politics, as well as real estate.


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