Matrix Blog

Westchester County, NY

NYT Calculator: Suburban Sales Boom Measured By Houses on Monopoly Board

November 19, 2016 | 7:46 am | nytlogo | Charts |

The New York Times created another super cool graphic in their new Calculator column, based on my idea. In the fall of 2015 I observed a massive surge of sales in Westchester County (north of NYC for those not familiar with our area). However median sales price was nearly flat during this period. This was phenomenon repeated in all of the counties that surround NYC – except for NJ since I don’t cover that market yet but anecdotally I believe the same phenomenon is occurring there. I believe this moment was the point where the affordability challenge became so severe that renters and move up buyers had to move out of the city.

Specifically, Brooklyn showed a surge in median sales price from 2009 with a modest growth in sales. Westchester reflected the opposite patterns of Brooklyn. Westchester county sales boomed over the same period while the growth in median sales price was much more tepid.

westchestervbrooklyn11-2016

Below is the NYT graphic for the suburban sales boom article.

11-18-16nytcalculator

Tags: , , ,


Brooklyn, Queens Set Records, NYC rents jump, Westchester, Putnam and Dutchess Get Busy

October 8, 2015 | 9:05 pm | delogo | Reports |

wsjbrooklyn3q15-600

We published a slew of research today for Douglas Elliman Real Estate:

Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals

Manhattan Rentals – Median rental price increased year-over-year for the 18th consecutive month – Median rental price was third highest on record – Brisk employment growth and strong economic conditions kept upward pressure on rents – Mortgage lending conditions remained tight tipping would-be first-time buyers back into rental market – Strength at lower end of market remained as non-doorman rents rose faster than doorman rents – Luxury median rental price slipped, showing weakest conditions of all price segments – Inventory slipped and marketing time remained low, despite rise in vacancy rate

Brooklyn Rentals – Median rental price set a new record for third consecutive month – Median rental price exceeded the $3,000 threshold for first time – Landlord concessions remained at nominal level as inventory slipped – Rental price indicators moved higher across all size categories – Listing inventory as well as negotiability between landlords/tenants fell – Median Brooklyn rent was $288 less than Manhattan

Queens Rentals – Price indicators showed mixed results, suggesting general stability overall – Studios showed strong price growth as 1-bedrooms and 2-bedrooms were flat – New development market share comprised 30.2% of new rentals – Luxury market median price gain was modest, but exceeded the overall market – Median Queens rent was $362 less than Brooklyn and $650 less than Manhattan

Brooklyn Sales – Brooklyn median and average sales price set a new record – Brooklyn remains the only New York City borough with a median sales price above the pre-financial crisis high – Condo, co-op and 1-3 family properties set new median sales price record – Luxury housing prices followed overall market trend – Sales expanded as listing inventory declined, resulting in brisk market pace – Fastest marketing time in 8 years

Queens Sales – Queens median and average sales price set a new record – Condo median sales price set a record for second consecutive quarter – Co-op price indicators set new record – 1-3 Family price indicators set new record – Luxury price indicators set new record – Inventory declined as sales surged – Marketing time fell as negotiability expanded

Westchester County Sales (expanded) – Record number of sales for the quarter, based in historical back to 1981 – Fastest marketing time and least negotiability in the 5.5 years this metric has been measured – Listing inventory for all property types slipped from year ago levels – Absorption rate was fastest market pace in 15 years – Single family and condo median sales price indicated stability – Single family market share declined even though sales increased – Luxury price indicators slipped, out performed by overall market

Putnam/Dutchess County Sales (new)

Putnam County – Price trend indicators increased on a year over year basis – Listing inventory slipped as the number of sales surged – Based on absorption, the market pace was 17.2% faster than the year ago quarter – Marketing time and listing discount expanded despite faster market pace

Dutchess County – Price indicators suggested general stability – Single family prices edged higher as condo prices declined – The pace of the market slowed as sales declined and inventory expanded

Tags: , , ,


Podcast: My Port Authority of NY & NJ Interview on Regional Housing Market

September 24, 2015 | 12:16 pm | Podcasts |

panynj-header

A few days ago I was interviewed by Christopher Eshleman at the Port Authority of New York & New Jersey. He works for Alexander Heil who is the chief economist and publishes a lot of great regional economic insights. Although this is a new effort, this was their first podcast conducted outside of the institution so I am deeply appreciative of the opportunity to share my views.

Christopher is a sharp guy and kept the conversation interesting (I even inserted a Jerry Seinfeld joke). It’s about a half an hour.

Check it out.

Tags: , , , ,


Record Queens Condo Prices: Bigger Than Crises in Greece, China

July 9, 2015 | 9:51 pm | delogo |

Rental_0615Douglas Elliman published our research today covering Queens sales, Brooklyn sales Westchester/Putnam sales as well as the rental market for Manhattan Brooklyn & Queens. You can download the reports and more at Douglas Elliman’s market report page.

Like last week’s Manhattan report, there were lots of records set and it wasn’t simply the influence of high end sales – prices were up across the board in most markets.

Incidentally, the Bloomberg News article that covered record Queens condo sales was the second most emailed story world-wide. It stoked more interest than the finance crisis in Greece and the recent Chinese stock market gyrations. Apparently only “investors with satellites” was a more popular read.

Idea (?) for next quarter: Talk about drones and investors in the Queens housing market.

2q15queensrptBLOOMBERGTERMINALS

Tags: , ,


2Q14 Brings Mixed Regional Messages – Brooklyn, Queens and Westchester/Putnam Reports

July 14, 2014 | 8:53 am | delogo | Reports |

If you’ve been:

A. Pouring over state maps of pet ownership
B. Watching the World Cup
C. Watching the Tour de France
D. Fretting about the Russell Stover purchase

Then you may have missed last week’s market report releases for Brooklyn, Queens and Westchester/Putnam Reports. These are part of the report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994 (20 years!). The reports have a new look – hope you like them.

Click on graphics to open them.

Brooklyn_2Q_2014

BROOKLYN SALES MARKET Brooklyn housing prices continue to set new records, due to rising sales and low inventory. The median sales price of a Brooklyn residential property increased 4.5% to a record $575,000 from the same period last year. Average sales price also set a new record, rising 16.6% to $783,296 from the prior year quarter. Median sales price is now 6.5% above the $540,000 market peak reached in the third quarter of 2007 before the 2008 Lehman “tipping point.” Although this is the 7th consecutive quarter with year-over-year gains in median sales price, the first two quarters of 2014 posted smaller single-digit gains than the double-digit gains of the preceding 5 quarters…

Queens_2Q_2014

QUEENS SALES MARKET The Queens housing market took a breather after 6 consecutive quarters of rising sales. There were 2,404 sales in the second quarter, 3.6% less than the same period last year. Year to date, the number of sales remained 14.2% higher than the same period last year due to the sharp rise in first quarter sales activity. Despite the decline, listing inventory continued to fall for the 13th consecutive quarter. There were 5,892 listings at the end of the second quarter, 5.3% less than the same period last year. As a result of the combination of declining sales and falling inventory, the pace of the market remained stable…

Westchester_2Q_2014

WESTCHESTER/PUTNAM SALES MARKET Westchester single family contract activity was higher than prior year levels as severe winter weather conditions pushed first quarter pending sales into the second quarter. Despite the 16.7% decline in closed home sales, total contracts expanded 3.9% from the prior year quarter and jumped 51.9% from the prior quarter. The rise in contracts from first to second quarter was higher than the 35.5% average increase of the prior 2 years. Listing inventory expanded 7.9% to 3,905 rising from the low water mark set in 2013…


Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Market Chart Gallery [Miller Samuel]


Ready, Set, Download: 1Q 2014 Market Reports for Brooklyn, Queens and Westchester/Putnam Sales

April 12, 2014 | 1:49 pm | delogo |

We released 3 reports for Douglas Elliman on the sales markets for Brooklyn, Queens and Westchester/Putnam this week. Click on the reports to download!

Brooklyn_1Q_2014 BROOKLYN The Brooklyn housing market was characterized by more modest price growth and chronic lack of inventory, holding back sales growth. Median sales price expanded 1% to $520,000 from the same period last year and the highest first quarter result in 6 years. Average sales price grew 7.3% to $681,182 over the same period. Co-ops posted the largest year-over-year gain in median sales price, rising 12.2% to $340,000 but lost 2.1% of the market share. Condos remained essentially unchanged over the year with a $625,000 median sales price and market share edged 1.6% higher. The 1-3 family median sales price increased 5.1% to $588,733 and market share increased a nominal 0.5%…

Queens_1Q_2014 QUEENS The first quarter Queens housing market was a period of rising prices after an extended period of stability, declining inventory, and rising sales. The bottom of the multi-year decline of listing inventory may have been reached in the fourth quarter of 2013. Although the first quarter listing inventory increased 7% from the prior quarter bottom to 5,617, it was the second lowest level recorded in this report series since 2005 and 13.5% below prior year levels. The number of sales jumped 32.8% to 3,156 from the prior year quarter, the highest first quarter total in 6 years. The combination of declining inventory and rising sales led to a faster market pace. The absorption rate, the number of months to sell all listing inventory at the current pace of sales, fell to 5.3 months, less than half the 11.2 month average over the past 5 years…

Westchester_1Q_2014 WESTCHESTER The Westchester housing market saw the most first quarter sales in 7 years, the highest median sales price in 6 years and initial signs that the trend of declining inventory may be ending. There were 1,525 sales in the first quarter, up 13.1% from the prior year quarter and the most first quarter sales since the same period 7 years ago. Listing inventory fell 3.7% to 5,378 from the same period last year and for the 8th consecutive quarter. With the rise in the number of sales and the decline in listing inventory, the pace of the market was faster. The monthly absorption rate, defined as the number of months to sell all inventory at the current pace of sales, fell by 1.8 months to 10.6 months from the prior year quarter…
PUTNAM After bottoming out two years ago, housing prices have generally trended higher as the number of sales expanded and inventory contracted. All price indicators posted gains from prior year levels. Median sales price increased 12.7% to $302,500 while average sales price rose 15.9% to $379,217 over the same period…

Tags:


[Supply Limited] 2Q 2013 Westchester & Putnam Report

July 11, 2013 | 9:56 pm | delogo | Reports |

We just published our report on the Westchester & Putnam County New York housing markets. This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

WESTCHESTER

  • Inventory fell to 8-year low.
  • Jump in both number of sales and signed contracts.
  • Housing prices rose above year ago level.
  • Median sales price rose to highest level for second quarter in 8 years.
  • Credit remains tight keeping inventory low.
  • Heavy contract momentum carrying into next quarter.

PUTNAM

  • Sales jumped despite inventory slide.
  • Housing price indicators slipped from year ago levels.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

WESTCHESTER There were 2,251 sales in the second quarter, 24% more than the same period last year, consistent with the 23% increase in all signed contracts over the same time period. Listing inventory fell by 13.3% to 6,128 from the prior year quarter, marking the lowest second quarter inventory total since 2005…

PUTNAM The Putnam housing market saw a modest decline in all price indicators from prior year levels. Median sales price was $288,500, down 1.5% from the prior year quarter. Average sales price fell by 6.2% to $326,406 and average price per square foot fell by 5.2% to $164 over the same period…

You can build your own custom data tables on the Westchester & Putnam markets as well as view charts on the Westchester market, all updated with 2Q13 data.

Press coverage




The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]
Westchester Market Charts [Miller Samuel]


[Inventory, Contracts] 1Q 2013 Westchester & Putnam Report

April 11, 2013 | 11:27 am | delogo | Reports |

We just published our report on the Westchester & Putnam County New York housing markets.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

WESTCHESTER

  • Listing inventory fell to lowest first quarter total in four years.
  • Current supply is just below the 10-year average.
  • While sales are up, contract volume surged above year ago levels.
  • Overall price indicators were mixed indicating stability.

PUTNAM

  • Listing inventory declined as sales edged higher
  • Housing prices edged higher.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The first quarter of 2013 was defined by falling listing inventory and a significant rise in contract activity. Despite the faster pace of the market, price indicators showed stability compared to the same period last year. However, the overall market is expected to see more upward price pressure if the pace of falling supply and rising sales activity continues. The number of closed sales in the first quarter of 2013 showed only a modest gain of 5.6% to 1,348 compared to the same period last year. However, the total number of contracts surged 27% over the same period representing a significant acceleration in the pace of the market since the end of 2012. Listing inventory continued to fall sharply, down 17.5% to 5,587 from the first quarter of 2012, the lowest first quarter total in four years…

You can build your own custom data tables on the Westchester & Putnam market – now updated with 1Q 13 data. I’ll be posting the updated charts soon.




The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Douglas Elliman]


[Stronger Finish] 4Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Report

January 12, 2013 | 9:57 pm | delogo | Reports |

We just published our rreport on the Westchester & Putnam County New York housing markets.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

WESTCHESTER

  • Housing prices remain stable.
  • Sales up sharply as many anticipated higher taxes relating to the Fiscal Cliff in 2013.
  • Listing inventory continued to fall. Higher sales and tight credit ARE keeping inventory low.
  • Days on market edged higher as older inventory continued to be absorbed.
  • Luxury prices continued to outpace the overall market.

PUTNAM

  • Housing price indicators were mixed.
  • Sales slipped from the same period last year.
  • Listing inventory continued to trend lower.
  • Days on market edged higher as older inventory continued to be absorbed.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The fourth quarter 2012 Westchester housing market was characterized by general price stability, sharply rising sales activity, declining inventory and a faster overall market pace heading into 2013.

Median sales price saw a nominal 0.6% decline from prior year levels to $395,000. Average sales price increased 11.5% and average price per square foot rose 5.2% over the same period. The year-to-date results show nominal declines for all price indicators, including a 1.6% decline in median sales price. In the fourth quarter, the luxury market price indicators outpaced the overall market. Median sales price increased 21.6% from the prior year quarter to $2,150,000…

You can build your own custom data tables on the Westchester & Putnam market – now updated with 4Q 12 data. I‘ve added some charts for Westchester (Putnam coming) and will be adding to them in the future.




The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Douglas Elliman]


[More Pacing] 3Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Report

October 11, 2012 | 1:24 pm | delogo | Reports |

We just published our report on the Manhattan rental market for 3Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

WESTCHESTER

  • Number of sales jumped 21.9% above year ago levels while inventory fell 9.8% over the same period.
  • Single family sales surged 25.9% year over year, condos up 23%. Co-ops and 2-4 Family sales below year ago levels. Single family sales up in all regions.
  • Housing prices were stable – median sales price $490,000, down 1.1% but average home size slipped 1.7%.
  • Fastest market pace in 5 years: The combination of rising sales and falling inventory quickened the “pace” of the market as the monthly absorption rate fell to 8.6 months.
  • Luxury market prices remained lower than year ago levels. Median 13.8% below last year.

PUTNAM

  • Sales surged 44.8% year over year.
  • Housing prices continued slide year over year – median down 12.5% to $293K
  • Inventory fell 10.6%

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The third quarter was marked by a surge in sales, and fewer properties available for sale. Falling mortgage rates brought first time buyers into the market, as evidenced by a decline in the average size of a property sold. This also resulted in all price indicators falling below year-ago levels. The median sales price of a Westchester property in the third quarter was $490,000, 1.1% below $495,625 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price and average price per square foot followed the same pattern; the average square footage of sold property was 2,322 square feet, down 1.7% from 2,361 in the prior year quarter…

You can build your own custom data tables on the Westchester & Putnam market – now updated with 3Q 12 data. I’ll have the newly created chart section for Westchester & Putnam uploaded soon (I know I said this last quarter as well!) and add the link here when I do – it’ll be an evolving series.




The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]

Tags:


[Stable Burb] 2Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Report

July 12, 2012 | 4:43 pm | delogo | Reports |

We published our report on the Westchester/Putnam market for 2Q 2012 this morning.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

WESTCHESTER

  • Housing prices were stable, basically unchanged from this time last year. Median sales price was $459,000 in 2Q 12
  • Sales activity jumped, up 14.7% from last year to 1,815.
  • Listing inventory fell 11.7% to 7,064.
  • The combination of rising sales and falling inventory quickened the “pace” of the market as the monthly absorption rate fell to 11.7 months from 15.2
  • Luxury market saw stronger price trends than the stable overall market, median was up 6.6%.

PUTNAM

  • Housing prices softened – median down 6.6% to $293K
  • Sales jumped in response to falling rates.
  • Inventory fell 13.2%

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The Westchester housing market showed price stability, rising sales and falling inventory during the second quarter, as the regional economy continued to confront tight credit and a slowly improving economy. Median sales price was $459,000, essentially unchanged from $457,500 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price followed the same pattern. The average sales price was $645,208 in the second quarter, similar to $643,907 in the same period last year. Price per square foot, the least reliable of the three price indicators, reflected a 2.6% increase to $279 per square foot over the same period…

You can build your own custom data tables on the Westchester & Putnam market – now updated with 2Q 12 data. I’ll have the newly created chart section for Westchester & Putnam uploaded this evening.




The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]

Tags:


[The Housing Helix Podcast] Chris Meyers, COO, Houlihan Lawrence Real Estate

May 20, 2010 | 10:52 pm | Podcasts |

I have a candid conversation with Chris Meyers, COO of Houlihan Lawrence, the largest real estate brokerage firm in Westchester County, New York. A family business, Houlihan Lawrence has 1,200 agents and 24 offices to service Westchester, Putnam and Duchess Counties.

We talk about many things including the housing market of the past 18 months, finding good agents and the introduction of social media to the real estate brokerage business.

Check out the podcast.

The Housing Helix Podcast Interview List

You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.