[Chart] Manhattan Inventory Reached Bottom After 4 Years of Decline

April 4, 2014 | 9:00 am | Charts |

Manhattan listing inventory seems to have found a bottom after 4 years of decline…

1q14manhattan-inventorysplit
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Manhattan Co-op/Condo Market Charts [Miller Samuel]

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[Chart] Manhattan Co-op/Condo/Townhouse Monthly Listing Inventory Remains Woefully Low

April 3, 2014 | 9:00 am | Charts |

No meaningful rise in inventory in the last 3 months overall supply appears to be leveling off per the recently released 1Q14 Manhattan sales report we authored for Douglas Elliman.

1q14manhattan-inventorybymonth
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Manhattan Co-op/Condo Market Charts [Miller Samuel]

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[Chart] Separating New Development From Existing Sales Shows Sharply Higher Trend

April 2, 2014 | 9:00 am | Charts |

After separating new development data from existing sales from our 1Q14 Manhattan sales report, the high end new development product that is beginning to close now and pushing overall prices to record levels.

1q14manhattan-ASPnew-existing
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Pending Home Sales Down 10.2% YOY And That’s Not A Bad Thing

March 27, 2014 | 11:55 am | Charts |

NARphsi3-27-14
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NAR released their pending home sale index today and the news was not unexpected. US home sales volume has slowed since last spring’s taper miscue by the fed which caused mortgage rates to jump. If you look at the May surge in pending sales, sales volume, seasonally speaking (comparing year over year) has fallen 10.2% (unadjusted).

The introduction of QM earlier in the year probably doesn’t help volume levels, but I’m not really convinced that the housing recovery is actually stalling. It seems more like sales levels are settling to more sustainable levels. And as sales go, so goes the insane price gains seen in the national reports.

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[Three Cents Worth #264 NY] Tracking How High People Buy In Manhattan

March 25, 2014 | 4:59 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Spectators and participants in the Manhattan housing market have been burning a lot of calories talking about views, something the super luxury new development projects have been marketing as a key feature. I thought I’d look back over time to at what the average floor level of closed co-op and condo sales by quarter, and see if there is a pattern. I sifted through six years of data (note to self for rainy day: go back 25 years and break out condos and co-ops). While I’ve analyzed the value of floor level in Manhattan here and here before, I’ve never trended floor level and didn’t quite know what to expect…

[My post title was originally "Manhattan Rebound Not Because of Dizzying Heights" but wasn't Curbed staff didn't think it was catchy enough, ed.]

3cwNY3-25-14
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My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Tracking How High People Buy In Manhattan [Curbed]

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Manhattan’s Decade of Incredible Shrinking Apartment Sizes

March 19, 2014 | 12:30 pm | Charts |

I took a look at the last decade of Manhattan sales activity and broke out a bunch of neighborhoods and property types to compare their changes in average square footage from 2004 to 2013. I looked at the annual sales activity for both years and presented the percent change in the table below.

Takeaway

Rising costs over the decade have prompted small apartment sales at higher prices. New development activity that dominated the market in the middle of the last decade influenced sizes to shrink. This is distinctly different than the discussion about the shift in the mix towards larger apartments – ie more bedrooms.

matrix14manhattansqft
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[Three Cents Worth #263 NY] Do Wall Street Bonuses Affect NYC Sales?

March 18, 2014 | 4:13 pm | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

According to the 5/25 rule, the ratio of New York City jobs in the securities industry and the income they account for is 5 to 25: approximately 5 percent of NYC jobs come from the securities industry and they account for about 1/4 of personal income. With such a large, and disproportionate market share of NYC income, Wall Street has long been considered a lynchpin of the NYC real estate economy and perhaps most strongly aligned with Manhattan.

Still, it is a stretch to associate the ebb and flow as a predictor of future gains and losses in Manhattan housing prices, especially when considering deferred compensation. (Also, many Wall Streeters are getting paid from income deferred from a few years ago when times weren’t as good.) But it’s fun to chart. Especially after last week’s announcement by the State Comptroller of a 15.1 percent increase in both the Wall Street bonus pool and on a per person basis…

3cwNY3-18-14
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My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Do Wall Street Bonuses Affect NYC Sales? [Curbed]

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Bonus for NYC Housing: Wall Street Comp Up 15.1%, Most Cash Paid Out Since ’08 Crash

March 17, 2014 | 7:00 am | Charts |

The annual release by the New York State Office of Comptroller brought upbeat news to the real estate economy in NYC. Wall Street compensation has long accounted for roughly a quarter of personal income but only 5% of employment so the industry remains very important to NYC’s tax revenues. Here are some of the key points:

  • The overall bonus pool and bonus per person increased 15.1%.
  • The total bonus pool was
  • Bonus pool is up 44% in past 2 years.
  • Securities employment is down 12.6% from before the 2008 market crash.
  • Wall Street accounts for 8.5% of NYC tax revenue and 16% of NYS tax revenue
  • Part of the rise was due to payouts of deferred compensation from prior years.

Here are a few charts that layout the bonus trends in NYC. Wall Street is a key economic driver of NYC and therefore important to the health of the NYC housing market.

Wall Street compensation is 5x that of mere mortals (other private employment compensation) and that ratio has stabilized after a modest correction following the 2008 stock market crash.
2013nycsecuritiesbonus
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Wall Street bonuses rose steadily as a portion of total compensation but after the 2008 stock market correction and financial reform, the market share fell – but not as much as perceived.
2013nycsecuritiescompasperc
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Wall Street employment has fallen since 2008, but not nearly as much as expected. The market share of Wall Street NYC employment has slipped as a result.
2013nycwallstreetemployment
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[Chart] The Manhattan-Brooklyn Median Rental Price Smackdown

March 15, 2014 | 1:57 pm | delogo | Charts |

2014-2MBmedianspread

The rental price spread between Brooklyn and Manhattan is narrowing. At $210, the month of February saw the lowest differential between the median rental price of Manhattan and Brooklyn’s North and Northwest regions.

While Manhattan rents have leveled off, Brooklyn rents have continued to rise sharply – a combination of rising demand as well as a shift in the mix towards luxury rentals.

A decade ago, who would have thought we’d be talking about Brooklyn this way?

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[Three Cents Worth #262 NY] Manhattan Inventory Keeps On Rising

March 14, 2014 | 11:49 am | curbed | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

It’s that time of year when sellers begin to introduce listing inventory to the “Spring Market”—when sales volume and upward price pressure are generally at their annual peak. I started working on a chart after someone mentioned they noticed a lot of new townhouses being added to inventory. Manhattan townhouse inventory has been rising since the beginning of 2014, showing a similar pattern to co-ops and condos. From the end of December 2013 to end of February 2014, townhouse listing inventory is up 12.8 percent, while co-op listings are up 11.1 percent and condos are up 20.2 percent. To provide some context for these numbers, I expanded the chart to include a 14-year monthly series breaking out co-ops and condos in addition to townhouses…

3cwNY3-11-14
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My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan Inventory Keeps On Rising [Curbed]

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Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
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Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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