3Q14 Manhattan Sales Market: Operating Just Below Record Levels

October 1, 2014 | 6:17 pm | delogo | Reports |

Manhattan_3Q14

Today Douglas Elliman published the Elliman Report on Manhattan Sales that I author. This quarterly report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994 (20 years!).

Key Points
- Sales fell below last year’s third quarter record but still 29% above decade quarterly average.
- Luxury market price gains outpaced the overall market.
- Inventory is up from last year’s low but still 18% below decade quarterly average.
- New development market share of closed sales was up from year ago level, but expected to rise sharply over next year.
- Highest market share of sales at or above list price in 6 years (49.2%).

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

Manhattan housing prices continued to rise as additional supply remained inadequate to meet demand. Bidding wars and a shift toward larger units applied additional upward pressure to rising price trends. Sharp gains in New York City employment, the continued influx of international investors and low mortgage rates have kept the market tight. A product of five years of pent-up demand and the fear of rising mortgage rates, sales volume fell short of prior year records. Marketing times and negotiability eased, as the market downshifted from last year’s frenetic pace. Luxury market price growth exceeded the overall market, while new development product targeted at the luxury segment continued to enter the market…

The Elliman Report: 3Q14 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Market Chart Gallery [Miller Samuel]


Adding Queens To Our Manhattan/Brooklyn Rental Report

July 14, 2014 | 9:12 am | delogo | Reports |

Rental_0614

We’ve expanded the Elliman rental report to include Queens this month and added additional metrics for Manhattan and Brooklyn.

MANHATTAN
- Prices increased for 4th consecutive month after year end lull.
- Median rent is at highest point in more than 5 years.
- The vacancy rate was lowest June in 5 years.
- Use of concessions continued to fall, now at nominal levels.
- Marketing times and negotiability continued to fall.
- Luxury market outperformed the overall market.

BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest, East Regions]
- Median rental price up year over year for 13 consecutive months.
- Rents hovering near record highs but have remained stable since beginning of year.
- New rentals surged indicating resistance to price increases at time of renewal.
- Nominal use of concessions by landlords.
- Overall market outperformed luxury market, price growth stronger in smaller units.
- Manhattan-Brooklyn rental price gap remained at $500, more than the $210 record low in February but less than half of 2008 level.

QUEENS
[Northwest Region]
- Median rental price year-over-year slipped after 4 consecutive monthly increases.
- Shift in mix to smaller units (60.2% share of 1-bedrooms) pulling down overall prices.
- Nearly half of the rental stock is located in new development buildings.
- Overall market outperformed luxury market, price growth stronger in smaller units.
- Marketing time slipped as listing discount remained nominal.


The Elliman Report [Miller Samuel]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery [Miller Samuel]


2Q14 Brings Mixed Regional Messages – Brooklyn, Queens and Westchester/Putnam Reports

July 14, 2014 | 8:53 am | delogo | Reports |

If you’ve been:

A. Pouring over state maps of pet ownership
B. Watching the World Cup
C. Watching the Tour de France
D. Fretting about the Russell Stover purchase

Then you may have missed last week’s market report releases for Brooklyn, Queens and Westchester/Putnam Reports. These are part of the report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994 (20 years!). The reports have a new look – hope you like them.

Click on graphics to open them.

Brooklyn_2Q_2014

BROOKLYN SALES MARKET Brooklyn housing prices continue to set new records, due to rising sales and low inventory. The median sales price of a Brooklyn residential property increased 4.5% to a record $575,000 from the same period last year. Average sales price also set a new record, rising 16.6% to $783,296 from the prior year quarter. Median sales price is now 6.5% above the $540,000 market peak reached in the third quarter of 2007 before the 2008 Lehman “tipping point.” Although this is the 7th consecutive quarter with year-over-year gains in median sales price, the first two quarters of 2014 posted smaller single-digit gains than the double-digit gains of the preceding 5 quarters…

Queens_2Q_2014

QUEENS SALES MARKET The Queens housing market took a breather after 6 consecutive quarters of rising sales. There were 2,404 sales in the second quarter, 3.6% less than the same period last year. Year to date, the number of sales remained 14.2% higher than the same period last year due to the sharp rise in first quarter sales activity. Despite the decline, listing inventory continued to fall for the 13th consecutive quarter. There were 5,892 listings at the end of the second quarter, 5.3% less than the same period last year. As a result of the combination of declining sales and falling inventory, the pace of the market remained stable…

Westchester_2Q_2014

WESTCHESTER/PUTNAM SALES MARKET Westchester single family contract activity was higher than prior year levels as severe winter weather conditions pushed first quarter pending sales into the second quarter. Despite the 16.7% decline in closed home sales, total contracts expanded 3.9% from the prior year quarter and jumped 51.9% from the prior quarter. The rise in contracts from first to second quarter was higher than the 35.5% average increase of the prior 2 years. Listing inventory expanded 7.9% to 3,905 rising from the low water mark set in 2013…


Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Market Chart Gallery [Miller Samuel]


2Q14 Manhattan Sales Market: More Supply, But Not Even Close to Enough

July 1, 2014 | 5:55 pm | delogo | Charts |

Manhattan_2Q_2014

Today Douglas Elliman published the Elliman Report on Manhattan Sales that I author. This quarterly report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994 (20 years!).

Incidentally, we are tweaking the visual aspects of this Elliman report series – we do this every few years. We added a dashboard to provide at-a-glance information but expanded and yet consolidated the text to be one comprehensive section. I expanded the size of the charts but kept the matrix tables just about the same. Since this is a labor of love and a work in progress, please feel free to send along suggestions.

Key Points
- Sales increased for the 7th consecutive quarter, but less at a lower rate than the 27.6% average quarterly increase of the prior 4 quarters.
- Median sales price for co-ops increased 9% as consumer sought out greater affordability as condos increased 0.8%.
- Inventory is up from last year’s near record low. The inventory bottom appears to have been reached in 4Q 2013.
- There were 45.9% listings that sold at or above list price, the largest market share in nearly 6 years.
- Luxury price increases out paced the overall market.
- Sellers are being both motivated and enabled to list as a result of rising prices.
- Mortgage lending remains significantly challenging to buyers.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

Manhattan housing prices continued to press higher, driven by low inventory and seven consecutive quarters of year-over-year sales growth. Mortgage rates have drifted lower, nearly returning to their prior year levels while the local economy has added jobs and international demand for product has been relentless. The luxury market showed the most price gains as more new development product has begun to close…

Here is some context on the lack of inventory [click each chart to expand]:

2q14Manhattan-inventorybyMonth

2q14Manhattan-inventorySPLIT


The Elliman Report: 2Q14 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel] Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel] Market Chart Gallery [Miller Samuel]


May 2014 Report: Manhattan and Brooklyn Rentals Swap Roles

June 12, 2014 | 1:29 pm | delogo | Reports |

Rental_0514 Today Douglas Elliman published the Manhattan/Brooklyn rental report that I author. This monthly report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994 (20 years!). We discontinued the quarterly rental report series but still present the information in our aggregate database.

MANHATTAN
- Median rental price increased to the highest level in more than 5 years.
- After softening in late 2013 with intensive competition from the sales market, median rental prices have trended higher since the beginning of 2014.
- Although the market share of landlord concessions edged higher over the year ago level last year, they have fallen sharply from 13.1% in January.
- Vacancy rate slipped nominally from same period last year, hovering near multi-year lows.
- New rental activity fell reflecting the increased likelihood that tenants would renew their leases as a result of limited alternatives to increased affordability.

BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest Regions]
- Median rental price increased from the same period last year but has showed some stability since the beginning of the year.
- 2 and 3-bed apartments showed weaker price trends with the addition of new rental housing stock and intense competition from the purchase market.
- There was a sharp drop in new rentals from the same month a year ago as more tenants were resigned to sign their leases at time of renewal.
- Although marketing times expanded slightly, negotiability dropped sharply reflecting the ongoing tight market conditions.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

MANHATTAN For the third consecutive month, median rental price increased above the prior year level. Median rental price was $3,300, 3.1% above the same period last year and the highest level reached since early 2009. After weakening in the second half of 2013 from intensive competition from the sales market, median rental prices have generally trended higher since the beginning of the year. The remaining rental price indicators were mixed. Average rental price slipped 1.2% to $3,902 and average rental price per square foot increased 7.1% respectively from the same month last year…

BROOKLYN Median rental price increased 8.6% to $2,800 from the same month last year, yet remained essentially unchanged from the prior month. Since the beginning of the year, median rental price has showed some stability on a month-over-month basis…

The Elliman Report: 5-2014 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 5-2014 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Douglas Elliman]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Brooklyn Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Quarterly) [Miller Samuel]

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Manhattan/Brooklyn Rents Continue to Rise

May 15, 2014 | 10:24 am | delogo | Reports |

Rental_0414

Douglas Elliman published the Manhattan/Brooklyn rental report that I author today. This monthly report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994. We discontinued the quarterly rental report series but still present the information in our aggregate database.

MANHATTAN
- Second highest median rental price reached in over 5 years (highest was one month spike to $3,695 in Feb-09).
- Second consecutive month with year-over-year rise in median rent after 6 consecutive monthly declines.
- The vacancy rate was the lowest for an April in 4 years, falling to 1.45% from 1.58% a year ago.
- Market share of landlord concessions was up slightly from last year to 6.8%, but down from recent January peak of 13.1%.
- The number of new rentals slipped 6.2%, as landlords and tenants have remained more in sync for the 3rd consecutive month.

BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest Regions]
- Median rental price up year-over-year for the 11th consecutive monthly increase.
- New rental activity surged 57.1% as tenants pushed back against rising rents at time of renewal.
- Marketing times and negotiability expanded from a year ago, but remained stable over the past 3 months.
- Studios showed the largest rise in median rental price. 1-bedrooms and 2-bedrooms also increased.
- Brooklyn median rent was $442 less than Manhattan median rent, up from $210 record low in February.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

MANHATTAN Median rental price increased 1.6% to $3,247 from the same period last year to the second highest level in more than 5 years. This was the second consecutive year-over-year monthly increase after 6 consecutive months of decline, largely attributable to a higher than normal sales volume in 2013. The robust sales market provided competition, poaching some rental demand as “fencesitters” concerned about rising mortgage rates opted to purchase. Average rental price rose 5.1% to $4,008, the second time the $4,000 threshold was exceeded in the past 4 years. The overall rise in rental prices was largely seen in the studio and 1-bedroom markets with year-over-year gains of 4.2% and 1.4% respectively…

BROOKLYN The 11th consecutive increase, median rental price increased 3.9% to $2,805 from the same month last year, but fell 3.3% from the prior month record of $2,900. Average rental price followed a similar pattern rising 6.4% to $3,209 over the same period. Despite the rising trend, month over month rental price trends for all indicators have showed relative stability since the beginning of the year…

The Elliman Report: 4-2014 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4-2014 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Douglas Elliman]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Brooklyn Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Quarterly) [Miller Samuel]

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Q1 2014 Lower Manhattan Real Estate Market: “Vigorous,” “Expand,” “Bullish”

May 5, 2014 | 12:00 pm | dalogo | Reports |

These are some of the words used in the Downtown Alliance 1Q 2014 report: Lower Manhattan Real Estate Market Overview

LM-Real-Estate-4Q2014-12

Our appraisal firm Miller Samuel and real estate firm Douglas Elliman provide information and insights for the residential market section of the quarterly report.

LM-Real-Estate-4Q2014-13

Download the Downtown Alliance report: Lower Manhattan Real Estate Market Overview Q1 2014

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[Ready, Set, Download] South Florida Market Reports 1Q 2014

April 18, 2014 | 4:01 pm | delogo | Reports |

Our 4 comprehensive reports for Douglas Elliman on the residential sales markets for Miami, Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach this week.

Click on each report to download!

Miami_1Q14

MIAMI
With the Miami housing market well into the third year of its recovery, rising prices have begun to pull listing inventory into the market. Median sales price increased 16.1% to $244,000, the highest point reached since 2008. Average sales price jumped 19.1% to $461,374 over last year to a 5 year high and average price per square foot exceeded $305 per square foot for the first time in 6 years. Listing inventory bottomed in the second quarter of 2013, trending higher, up 15.2% to 12,664 from the prior year quarter. Along with the rise in supply, demand continued to rise. The number of sales rose 3.9% to 5,133 from the prior year quarter, to the highest first quarter total in the 8 years this metric has been tracked. The market share of distressed sales, once the majority of the market, continued to decline. Excluding short sales and foreclosures, market share rose to 69.4%, the highest level reached in the 4 years this metric has been tracked. The number of distressed listings and distressed With the Miami housing market well into the third year of its recovery, rising prices have begun to pull listing inventory into the market. Median sales price increased 16.1% to $244,000, the highest point reached since 2008. Average sales price jumped 19.1% to $461,374 over last year to a 5 year high and average price per square foot exceeded $305 per square foot for the first time in 6 years…

BocaRaton_1Q14

BOCA RATON
CONDO Median sales price surged 16.3% to $150,000 and average sales price declined 8.8% to $229,569 respectively from the prior year quarter. Listing discount, the percent difference between the list price at time of contract and the sales price, rose to 7% from 3.8% in the prior year quarter, but fell from 7.7% in the prior quarter…

SINGLE FAMILY Median sales price jumped 19.4% to $370,000 and average sales price rose 5.3% to $528,616 respectively from the prior year quarter. Listing discount edged up to 6.9% from 6.1% in the prior year quarter, as sellers were slightly more optimistic when determining their listing price…

FtLauderdale_1Q14

FORT LAUDERDALE
CONDO Median sales price jumped 19.8% to $255,000 from the same quarter last year, the highest level reached since 2008. Average sales price followed the same pattern, rising 23.9% to $379,391 over the same period also reaching a 5 year high.

SINGLE FAMILY The average time to market a property was 91 days, essentially unchanged from 90 days in the prior year quarter. Listing discount, the percentage difference between the list price at time of contract and the sales price, jumped to 8.1% from 4.5% as sellers pressed list prices higher than market trends support.

PalmBeach_1Q14

PALM BEACH
CONDO There were 68 sales during the quarter, 25.9% more than the same period last year. Listing inventory fell 16.9% to 360 over the same period. As a result the absorption rate, the number of months to sell all inventory at the current pace of sales, fell 34% to 15.9 months from the same period last year. The faster market pace pushed down days on market, the number of days from the last price change to the contract date, by 10 days to an average of 182 days.

SINGLE FAMILY Median sales price increased 10.7% to $3,100,000 from the prior year quarter to the highest first quarter reached since 2009. Average sales price jumped 56.7% to $6,450,093 over the same period. The average square footage of a sale was 5,261, up 20.9% from the prior year quarter.

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1Q 2014 Manhattan Sales Report Released, Records Reached

April 1, 2014 | 4:46 pm | delogo | Reports |

Manhattan_1Q_2014

Douglas Elliman published the Manhattan sales report today that I author. This report is part of an evolving series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Trends

  • Most first quarter sales in 7 years, but not expected to keep torrid pace.
  • Price per square foot sets 25-year record of $1,363.
  • Median sales price jumped 18.5% but remained 5.1% below 2008 peak.
  • Inventory was flat for first time in 3 years.
  • Comparisons against year ago levels skewed higher from brief “fiscal cliff” lull.
  • Credit remains tight partly due to implementation of QM – keeping inventory low.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

First quarter Manhattan housing market conditions included double-digit price gains from prior year levels as the sales mix shifted to larger units and a growing new development market share targeted the luxury market. Sales momentum from a record setting 2013 carried into the new year and listing inventory stabilized after twelve consecutive quarterly year-over-year declines.

Median sales price increased 18.5% to $972,428 from the last year, but remained 5.1% below the high water mark set in the second quarter of 2008 before the Lehman tipping point in the subsequent quarter. Average sales price jumped 30.9% to $1,773,523 from the same period last year due to a number of factors, including the rise in luxury new development market share, the increase in the average sales size and larger price gains at the upper end of the market. The average square footage of an apartment was 1,301, a 5.9% increase from the same period last year. The average price per square foot of a Manhattan apartment reached a record $1,363, 23.6% above year the prior year level…

There was heavy media coverage of the report release this quarter.




The Elliman Report: 1Q 14 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 14 Manhattan Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery [Miller Samuel]

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February 2014 Manhattan and Brooklyn Rental Report Released

March 14, 2014 | 12:44 pm | delogo | Reports |

Rental_0214

Douglas Elliman published the Manhattan/Brooklyn rental report that I author. This monthly report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994. We discontinued the quarterly rental report series but still present the information in our aggregate database.

MANHATTAN

  • Prices fell from year ago levels for the 6th consecutive month.
  • Rental prices have essentially remained flat since last summer.
  • Median rental price spread between Manhattan and Brooklyn (N. NW regions) was $210, narrowest tracked (since January 2008).
  • The use of concessions by landlords nearly doubled and vacancy rate edged higher.

BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest Regions]

  • Rental price indicators continued to push higher.
  • New rental activity jumped as tenants scrambled for improved affordability at time of lease renewal.
  • Price gains in studio and 1-bedrooms as 2-bedroom and 3-bedrooms weakened.
  • Marketing times remained largely unchanged but negotiability between tenants and landlords tightened.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

MANHATTAN For the sixth consecutive month, the year-over-year median rental price fell below the prior year level. Median rental price declined 2.8% to $3,100 from the same month last year. As a result, rental prices have generally remained flat on a monthly basis since last summer. The other price indicators also showed similar declines. Average rental price slipped 0.6% to $3,932 and average rental price per square foot fell 3.7% to $49.70 respectively from the same period last year…

BROOKLYN All rental price indicators continued to post year-over-year gains. Median rental price rose 11.6% to $2,890 from the same period a year ago, marking the ninth consecutive monthly gain. These results outpaced the luxury market, whose median rental price increased 4.5% over the same period. Average rental price expanded 2.6% to $3,178 and average rental price per square foot increased 3% to $38.12 over the same period…




The Elliman Report: 2-2014 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2-2014 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Douglas Elliman]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Brooklyn Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Quarterly) [Miller Samuel]