Methodology

Miller Samuel Market Report Innovations

• First to analyze the entire borough of Manhattan
• First to track Manhattan co-ops by price per square foot
• First to analyze Manhattan square footage of all sales
• First to analyze the Manhattan market by median sales price
• First to break out the Manhattan market by bedrooms (Studio, 1, 2, 3, 4+)
• First to analyze Manhattan market-wide apartment inventory
• First provide a 10-year analysis on Manhattan co-op/condo market
• First provide a 10-year analysis on Manhattan townhouse market
• First to analyze Manhattan days on market
• First to drop Manhattan price per room as an obsolete market indicator
• First to break out Manhattan sales by specific neighborhoods
• First to analyze the Manhattan uptown co-op and condo market
• First to analyze the Manhattan co-op and condo market by zip code
• First to analyze Manhattan new development and re-sale trends
• First to break out the Long Island, Queens & East End markets by quintiles
• First to analyze the entire borough of Brooklyn
• First to analyze the entire borough of Queens
• First to analyze Brooklyn new development trends
• First to analyze Queens new development trends
• First to analyze Long Island by region (ie, North Shore, Middle Island, South Shore, etc.)
• First to provide a 10-year analysis on The Hamptons/North Fork market
• First to provide quarterly report on the Manhattan rental market
• First to analyze the Manhattan rental market by rental price per square foot, number of rentals, days on market, listing discount, listing inventory
• First to analyze absorption in Manhattan, Queens, Brooklyn, Long Island, Hamptons/North Fork, Westchester and Putnam
• First to create and present a Manhattan pending price and sales index
• First to analyze Westchester housing market by regions
• First to analyze Miami Coastal Communities by distressed and non-distressed sales
• First to independently analyze Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach and Miami on a quarterly basis.
• First to analyze Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens, New York City, Long Island, Hamptons/North Fork and Westchester/Putnam with year-to-date metrics.

Purpose and Overview of Market Reports

Purpose To provide market-wide trends based on available historical information, not an appraisal of a specific property.

Improper Use It is improper to apply these statistics to the square footage, room count or other attributes of a specific property in order to estimate its market value. Improper use of this research would be akin to using the Dow Jones Industrial Average to price a specific stock in a portfolio. Amenities including, but not limited to view, physical condition, layout, quality and type of construction, square footage, number of bedrooms, lot size, financial condition and security have a significant influence on values within the same county, neighborhood, zip code, building, or any other market or sub-market.

Market-wide Sales Analysis The statistics presented in all of of the market reports available at MillerSamuel.com are based on all property sales available to us in each defined market area at the time each report was prepared. Sales used within our market reports are market-wide and not simply an analysis of the sales of Prudential Douglas Elliman.

 

Manhattan

SALES REPORTS

Quarterly Manhattan Co-op & Condo Sales A quarterly analysis of co-op and condo sales in Manhattan. Unlike the stock markets, apartment sales data continues to fall in the prior quarter as it becomes available because sales are usually not recorded at time of closing and may lag the closing date by several weeks or months. However, in order for the report to be useful and timely, the report represents a reliable analysis of market conditions during the quarter based on the sales data obtained by the end of the quarter.

Annual Manhattan Co-op & Condo Sales It is the compilation of data presented in the four quarterly reports plus additional analysis. New data collected after the posting dates of each quarterly report are not appended to the original data since each quarterly report represents a snap shot of the market at the time they were issued. Since historical data is continuously collected in day to day business, Miller Samuel reserves the right to update the results of these reports in the future or in other reports or studies.

Annual Manhattan Townhouse Sales An annual analysis of Manhattan townhouse sales as a 10 year moving window.

Types of data used Closed arms-length residential apartment sales are the primary type for quarterly and annual Manhattan reports. Analysis of pending sales data is included where specifically noted. Medical and professional co-ops and condo sales as well as separate maid’s and storage rooms were excluded. Closed arms-length residential 1-5 family townhouse sales that could be delivered vacant for the Manhattan Townhouse Report were used.

Data sources The primary data sources for Manhattan co-ops, condos and townhouses were ACRIS, Property Shark and other subscription services, managing agents, board members, lenders, buyers and sellers. The data used in these reports were collected during the normal course of business for Prudential Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel and do not necessarily represent all sales in their respective categories.

Query Manhattan online aggregate sales data

Location The data included in the Manhattan market reports on this site are located on the entire island of Manhattan. Prior to 2005, the sales data used was located between Battery Park City and either West 116th Street or East 96th Street. The former Manhattan designation was re-named East Side + West Side + Downtown and the sales history was retained and will continue to be updated. Manhattan means all of Manhattan and all historical Manhattan data has been revised to include the expanded market area.

Neighborhood boundaries Several market areas were selected or combined with other neighborhoods and correspond with commonly known neighborhood boundaries. They were selected for their higher concentration of market activity. When a specific location is omitted, the lack of data density specific to it is usually the reason. To open a table that summarizes the neighborhood boundaries, go here.

Overlapping market areas Due to the inclusion of several sub-markets in several neighborhoods, the total of all areas analyzed do not equal the Manhattan totals.

Ownership types The market reports include co-ops, condos and townhouses. The co-ops are owned as co-op interest. Cond-ops are considered within the co-op dataset since the individual apartment is allocated shares and functions as a co-op. Condos are owned in fee simple with the exception of those located in Battery Park City, one of the only condo markets known in New York state that is located on leased land.

New development Condo new development sales are defined as any and all sales that close within 3 years of the construction date and case-by-case exceptions. Re-sales are defined as any sale that is not considered new development.

Apartment sizes were determined by total number of rooms

Studio	1 to 2.5 rooms
One-bedroom	3 to 3.5 rooms
Two-bedroom	4 to 6.5 rooms
Three-bedroom	7 to 8.5 rooms
Four-bedroom	9 or more rooms

RENTAL REPORT

Quarterly Manhattan Rentals A quarterly analysis of rentals in Manhattan. The number of new rentals represent open market new rental activity rather than lease renewals (“new does not refer to new development, which is tracked separately). Rental price indicators are based on “face rent” and does not include concessions such as free rent and brokerage commissions unless where noted.

Data sources Rental data is not public record and was therefore collected from area brokers who are members of REBNY as well as those collected by Prudential Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel during their normal course of business. The data collected is market-wide and does not represent the rental activity of a specific company.

Query Manhattan online aggregate sales data

Location The data included in the Manhattan market reports on this site are located on the entire island of Manhattan.

Neighborhood boundaries Regions analyzed in the rental report include Manhattan, Downtown, East Side, West Side and Uptown. To open a table that summarizes the neighborhood boundaries, go here.

Ownership types The market reports include rental data from rental buildings, co-ops, condos and townhouses.

Apartment sizes were determined by total number of rooms

Studio	1 to 2.5 rooms
One-bedroom	3 to 3.5 rooms
Two-bedroom	4 to 6.5 rooms
Three-bedroom	7 to 8.5 rooms
Four-bedroom	9 or more rooms

 

Brooklyn

Quarterly Brooklyn Sales A quarterly analysis of co-op, condo and 1-3 family sales in Brooklyn. Sales data continues to fall in the prior quarter as it becomes available because sales are usually not recorded at time of closing and may lag the closing date by several weeks or months. However, in order for the report to be useful and timely, the report represents a reliable analysis of market conditions during the quarter based on the sales data obtained by the end of the quarter. Since the time of data collection is consistent, comparison to previous periods is considered reasonable and a reliable proxy for a full collection of data that would be record as much as 120 days after the close of the period.

Types of data used Closed arms-length residential co-op, condo and 1-3 family sales were used. Sales outliers that did not appear to be arm’s length, were removed from the data set. Analysis of pending sales data is included where specifically noted.

Data sources The primary data source for Brooklyn was ACRIS supplemented by additional information or physical characteristics collected during the normal course of business by Miller Samuel or Prudential Douglas Elliman

Neighborhoods Included within each region

Query Brooklyn online aggregate rental data

Location The data included in the Brooklyn market reports and on this site encompass the entire borough of Brooklyn.

Ownership types The market reports include co-ops, condos and 1-3 family properties.

New development Condo new development sales are defined as any and all sales that close within 3 years of the construction date and case-by-case exceptions. Re-sales are defined as any sale that is not considered new development.

 

Queens

Quarterly Queens Sales A quarterly analysis of co-op, condo and 1-3 family sales in Queens. Sales data continues to fall in the prior quarter as it becomes available because sales are usually not recorded at time of closing and may lag the closing date by several weeks or months. However, in order for the report to be useful and timely, the report represents a reliable analysis of market conditions during the quarter based on the sales data obtained by the end of the quarter. Since the time of data collection is consistent, comparison to previous periods is considered reasonable and a reliable proxy for a full collection of data that would be record as much as 120 days after the close of the period.

Types of data used Closed arms-length residential co-op, condo and 1-3 family sales were used. Sales outliers that did not appear to be arm’s length, were removed from the data set. Analysis of pending sales data is included where specifically noted.

Data sources The primary data source for Queens was ACRIS supplemented by additional information or physical characteristics collected during the normal course of business by LIBOR, Miller Samuel or Prudential Douglas Elliman

Neighborhoods Included within each region

Query Queens online aggregate sales data

Location The data included in the Queens market reports and on this site encompass the entire borough of Queens.

Ownership types The market reports include co-ops, condos and 1-3 family properties.

New Development Condo new development sales are defined as any and all sales that close within 3 years of the construction date.

 

Long Island

Quarterly Long Island Sales A quarterly analysis of residential house and condo sales in Nassau and Suffolk counties. Suffolk county excludes data from the Hamptons and the North Fork which are to be analyzed in a future report. Unlike the stock markets, housing sales data continues to fall in from the prior quarter as it becomes available because sales are usually not recorded at time of closing and may lag the closing date by several weeks or months. However, in order for the report to be useful and timely, the report represents a reliable analysis of market conditions during the quarter based on the sales data obtained by the end of the quarter.

Types of Data Used Closed arms-length residential sales were used including houses and condos. Analysis of pending sales data is included where specifically noted.

Data sources The primary data source was LIBOR and ACRIS.

Towns included within each region

Query Long Island online aggregate sales data

Location The data included in the Long Island Market Overview covers the counties of Nassau and Suffolk, excluding the Hamptons and the North Fork, which are analyzed in a separate report.

Sub-market boundaries North Shore Boundaries are defined as Kings Point to Laurel Hollow, north of the Long Island Expressway, north of route 25, within Nassau County. South Shore boundaries are generally south of Route 27 in Nassau and Suffolk Counties, west of The Hamptons.

 

Hamptons/North Fork

Quarterly Hamptons/North Fork Sales A quarterly analysis of residential house and condo sales in the east end of Suffolk County. Unlike the stock markets, housing sales data continues to fall in from the prior quarter as it becomes available because sales are usually not recorded at time of closing and may lag the closing date by several weeks or months. However, in order for the report to be useful and timely, the report represents a reliable analysis of market conditions during the quarter based on the sales data obtained by the end of the quarter.

10-year Hamptons/North Fork Sales An annual analysis of East End residential sales as a 10 year moving window. First introduced covering the 1998-2007 markets.

Types of data used Closed arms-length residential sales were used including houses and condos. Analysis of pending sales data is included where specifically noted.

Data sources Long Island MLS, Long Island Real Estate Report, public record, Salesweb and Prudential Douglas Elliman.

Towns or hamlets included within each region

Query Hamptons/North Fork online aggregate sales data

 

Westchester County, NY

Westchester County A quarterly analysis of residential 1 Family, 2-4 Family, co-op and condo sales in Westchester County, NY.

Types of transactions used Closed arms-length residential sales were used. Analysis of pending sales data is included where specifically noted.

Data sources The primary data source was the Westchester-Putnam MLS.

Towns included within each region.

Westchester online aggregate sales data query

 

South Florida (Miami, Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach)

Source The data source includes the local MLS services and Douglas Elliman.

Types of transactions used Closed, pending, active inventory, short sales, REO, existing, new development, condo and single family properties. Analysis of pending sales data is included where specifically noted.

Miami coastal communities defined.

Terminology

Townhouses One to five family houses that can be delivered vacant.

Apartments In the New York City region, the term apartment refers to an individual unit within a multi-unit building whether it is a co-op, condo or rental unit. In most markets outside the region, the term “apartment” infers a rental unit.

Co-ops Individual apartments in a building owned by a private corporation. Owners retain shares within the private corporation and their propriety lease directs use of a specific unit.

Condos Individual units in a building where the owners have ownership rights in fee simple for the apartment and own a percentage of common area.

Townhouses One to five family houses that can be delivered vacant.

Luxury Top ten percent of all sales prices all properties to transfer in that particular period comprise the luxury market.

Loft This Manhattan sub-category is the analysis of all co-op and condo loft sales available. A loft is a former commercial or manufacturing property that was converted to residential use. There have been a handful of newly constructed projects that were designed to mimic the construction characteristics of turn-of-the-century properties and these are included in the loft statistics presented.

Residential All residential properties in a particular market area, includes all property types covered such as 1-3 family, co-ops and/or condos.

 

Statistics and Formulas

Number of Sales All available closed sales at time of report preparation to occur in a specific market during the reporting period. This figure is not updated in subsequent quarters.

Number of New Rentals All available closed rentals at the time of report preparation to occur in a specific market during the reporting period. It does not include lease renewals. The word “new” is not an identifier for “new development,” “new conversion” or “new construction.” This figure is not updated in subsequent quarters.

Average Price Per Square Foot The total of all apartment sales prices in a specific reporting period and market divided by the total square footage of all sales in that same period and market.

Average Rental Price Per Square Foot The total of all apartment rental prices in a specific reporting period and market divided by the total square footage of all rentals in that same period and market.

Average Sales Price The total of all apartment sales prices in a specific reporting period and market divided by the number of sales in that same market and reporting period.

Average Rental Price The total of all apartment sales prices in a specific reporting period and market divided by the number of sales in that same market and reporting period.

Median Sales Price This is the number that is the middle point of all the sales prices in a data set. If the data set has an even number of data points, the average of the two middle numbers of the set is the median sales price.

Median Rental Price This is the number that is the middle point of all the rentals prices in a data set. If the data set has an even number of data points, the average of the two middle numbers of the set is the median rental price.

Listing Inventory Data is collected through the REBNY RLS system. In Long Island, aggregate listing totals are extracted from generating a query in the MLS of Long Island (LIBOR). On the East End, inventory was obtained from a combination of using LI MLS, HREO and Realnet. Inventory is comprised of actives, not shadow.

Quintiles All sales in the quarter are sorted by price. The total number of sales are then divided into five equal groups. The median sales price of each fifth, or quintile results.

Days on Market The number of days from the last change in list price to the contract date. The exception is the Long Island and Manhattan Rentals which are based on the original list date due to availability and quality of data.

Listing Discount The percentage difference between the last list price and the contract price. The exception is the Long Island and Manhattan Rentals which are based on the original list price due to availability and quality of data.For example, a $1,000,000 last list price with a $950,000 indicates a 5% listing discount: ($1,000,000 – $950,000) / $1,000,000 = 5%.

Monthly Absorption Rate The number of months it would take for all active inventory to be sold at the current pace of sales. It is calculated by taking the listing inventory and deducting the monthly number of sales. An increase in the number of months to absorb current housing stock indicates a weakening market. The number of sales for the quarter is divided by three to convert to a monthly average. For example, a 3,000 quarterly number of sales and a listing inventory of 6,000 would yield a 6 month absorption: (6,000) – (3,000/3) = 6 months.

Closed Sales Data collected and presented on this site and in our market reports are primarily closed sales. We use both closed sales that have been recorded and therefore available in public record, and we use closed sales that we are aware of that have not yet been record – and therefore by definition, are not available in public record yet.

Contract Sales, Pending Sales “Under contract” Periodically we look at same-unit price trends. Most of our market report series includes pending sales analysis but only where noted.