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Posts Tagged ‘Absorption’

[Manhattan Absorption] August 2014 The $3M-$5M Market Slows Down

September 13, 2014 | 6:15 pm | Charts |

8-2014Manhattan [click to expand]

Thoughts Not a big difference from last year. Sub-$3M is generally very tight with not much variation between price categories in each region. There isn’t much difference in the $10M+ market. Condos are slower than co-ops overall, but not by much. The difference is being seen in the $5M to $10M, which is moving more slowly moving than it was a year ago.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

August 2014 v 2013
8-201408-2013 [click images to expand]

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. (I got tired of the red/gray look in 9-2014 so I changed it) The blue/red line shows the 10-year quarterly average for context. The pink/orange line represents the overall average absorption rate of the most recently completed month for that market area. 

Definition Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the current annualized pace of sales activity in our market report series.


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts [Miller Samuel]

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[Manhattan Absorption] May 2014 – Swimming in high-end condos.

June 8, 2014 | 6:19 pm | Charts |

5-2014Manhattan [click to expand] Thoughts Not a significant change from a year ago. The absorption rate is generally a little faster than the year ago pace when you are talking about the sub-$3M market and a little slower from an already cooling rate above that threshold. Hi end condos – over $10M – are seeing a 32.3 month absorption rate which is extremely slow largely because of the new product entering the market.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

May 2014 v 2013
5-201405-2013

[click images to expand]

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month for that market area.


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts [Miller Samuel]

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[Manhattan Absorption] April 2014 – Market Pace At Top Eases As Remainder Accelerates

May 19, 2014 | 6:30 am | Charts |

4-2014Manhattan [click to expand]

Thoughts
You can see a slight slow down in the pace of the market at or above $5M while the remainder of the market continued to accelerate as evidenced by faster (lower) absorption rates. It makes sense since there is no new development entering the market to ease the supply shortage of the “lower 90%” of the market.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

April 2014 v 2013
4-201404-2013 [click images to expand]

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month for that market area.

Definition
Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in our market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts [Miller Samuel]

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[Manhattan Absorption] March 2014 – All But Top 1% Seeing Faster Pace

April 12, 2014 | 1:23 pm |

3-2014Manhattan [click to expand]

Thoughts
All price segments of the market are generally showing a faster market pace than the same month in the prior year. The top 1% ($10M+) had slower absorption rates for co-ops and condos, but not by much. Inventory began to “bottom” in recent quarters so we may not see much more compression in the market pace in the coming months.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

March 2014 v 2013
3-201403-2013 [click images to expand]

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month for that market area.

Definition
Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in our market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts [Miller Samuel]

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[Manhattan Absorption] February 2014 – “Tight Supply” as a Market Rant

March 4, 2014 | 10:41 am | Charts |

2-2014Manhattan [click to expand]

Thoughts
For the overall inventory in the Manhattan market, the operative phrase remains “tight supply” with no real relief in sight. While we are seeing a nominal improvement year to date in 2014, the operative word remains “nominal.” $10M+ has long had bloated supply with lots of “I’ll sell if you pay that” listings. $5M and up continues to see the most supply relative to demand. Supply is chronically low below the $3M threshold and most acute between $1M and $2M.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

February 2014 v 2013
2-201402-2013
[click images to expand]

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month for that market area.

Definition
Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in our market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2014 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2013 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel]

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Manhattan’s West Side Inventory Losing More Market Share Than Others

March 3, 2014 | 1:58 pm | Charts |

4q13manhattan-over-under
[click to expand]

I took a look at the trend in Manhattan’s listing inventory on a weekly basis since the beginning of 2009 and matched it against the market share of inventory for each of the four regions. It looks like the West Side (yellow line) was the only region to consistently lose market share over the past several years.

Since overall inventory has been falling during this period, this suggests that the West Side is tighter than the other regions but the absorption rate is about the same as the other regions.

Why?

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[Manhattan Absorption] January 2014 – “Bottom 99%” of Market Is Tight

February 5, 2014 | 7:00 am | Charts |

1-2014Manhattan [click to expand]

Thoughts
For the overall Manhattan Market, in fact for the “Bottom 99%” (I love saying that) of the market, the absorption rate is well below the year ago period. Record high sales and record low inventory has pressed the absorption rate to the floor. For the $10M+ market (top 1%) the absorption rate has slow sharply from a year ago. While this segment has always been a LOT slower than the market overall (see archives below), it has slowed considerably. The next highest segment $5M-$10M has essentially remained the same with the remainder of the submarkets seeing much more rapid absorption rates over the same period. All regions saw similar changes from the year ago period.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

January 2014 v. January 2013
1-201401-2013
[click images to expand]

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month for that market area.

Definition
Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in our market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2013 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel]

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Overwhelming Visual Recap of Prior ‘Three Cents Worth’ Columns #250 to #256

February 3, 2014 | 8:31 pm | curbed | Charts |

Ok, that’s a lot of hyperbole, the charts do look pretty cool all lined up below. Although the Matrix blog was quiet as we transitioned to a new web site, I still wrote a bunch of posts on Curbed over the past several months and thought I’d share. Here’s the list. Click on each blog title to go to the full post.

December 18, 2013 Curbed NY #256 Finding 2014 Clues In Oft-Overlooked Data 3cwNY12-18-13

December 10, 2013 Curbed NY #255 Dogging Manhattan Apartment Values 3cwNY12-10-13

December 3, 2013 Curbed NY #254 Tallest Rental Chart in Manhattan History 3cwNY12-3-13thumb

November 27, 2013 Curbed NY #253 Charting Manhattan’s So Not Tryptophan-Like Absorption Rate 3cwNY11-27-13

November 19, 2013 Curbed NY #252 Sales Prices Way More Volatile Than Rents 3cwNY11-19-13

November 14, 2013 Curbed NY #251 Manhattan Listings May Have Bottomed 3cwNY11-14-13


Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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[Long List of Records] 3Q 2013 Manhattan Sales Report

October 4, 2013 | 10:32 am | delogo | Reports |

We published our report on Manhattan market sales for 3Q 2013 this week.   I’ve been writing this series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

My Take

  • Inventory continues to challenge the market, falling to the lowest level since we began tracking it more than 13 years ago.
  • Sales surged as fence-sitters rushed in to buy before mortgage rates rose any further, causing the largest market share of co-op sales (62%) in 9-years.
  • Sales rose to second highest level in 24 years, the highest since 2007.
  • While overall median sales price slipped 2%, it was only due to a shift in mix to smaller sales. Both co-op and condo median sales prices increased year-over-year.
  • The 1-bedroom market share of sales reached a 15-year high.
  • The combination of surging sales and falling inventory resulted in fastest absorption rate (market pace) on record at 3.6 months.
  • The market share of new development closings fell to decade low of 6.2% as finished product continues to be scarce, but the rise in new development activity should reverse this trend in 2014.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

The third quarter was a period of records and near records in the Manhattan residential apartment market. There were 3,837 sales in the third quarter, 30% higher than the prior year quarter and the second highest total in more than 24 years. The sharp gains in the number of sales likely reflects a release of pent-up demand accumulated over the past several years combined with the concern over rising mortgage rates. The highest level of sales reached was 3,939 in the second quarter of 2007, just over a year before the Lehman tipping point and onset of the global credit crunch in late 2008. Listing inventory also reached a new record by falling 21.9% to 4,567, the lowest level reached since this metric was tracked in 2000…


The charts will be updated shortly but the data tables are already updated to include 3Q 2013.

Here is some of the press coverage for the report.


The Elliman Report: 3Q 2013 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2013 Manhattan Sales [Douglas Elliman]

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[Manhattan Absorption] August 2013 – Don’t Blink or It’s Gone (Except Trophies)

September 9, 2013 | 3:42 pm | Charts |

[click to expand]

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The pink line represents the overall average rate of the most recently completed month for that market area.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

August 2013 v. August 2012

[click images to expand]

Compared to last year, everything below $5M (all but a few % of the market) is flying off the shelves as evidenced by very fast absorption rates. The $1M to $1.49M Manhattan co-op market is seeing absorption rates as low as 2.4 months, an incredibly fast pace. The weakest segment appears to be $5M and $10M+ condos, which are seeing absorption rates of about 12 months and 28 months respectively. High end co-ops, especially those above $10M (<1% of the market) are also absorbing slowing, averaging about 16 months. The balance of the co-op market (nearly all of it) is being absorbed faster than the 10 year average absorption rate.


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2013 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel]

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