David Leonhardt’s article today about Online Betters was quite good. Using the odds fleshed out by online traders, you could have:

  • Predicted the winner presidential election for all 50 states in 2004
  • 85% of recent Emmy winners
  • The current American Idol winner

The NYT article says that online gamblers see no sign of a housing bubble anytime soon…


Not sure I want to rely on this as a way to get comfortable with the real estate economy but it is tempting. One could argue that the recent poker craze, is a sign of speculative environment.

Then we get into predicting presidential elections..
2004 Predicting a Bush Victory [The Formula]

Using the Superbowl…

footballillustrated This brings to mind Superbowl predictors of presidential elections called The Superbowl Effect:

2000 It’s Redskins vs. the markets in the presidential race
1996 NFL Index Predicts Super Year For Stocks


One Response to “The Gamblers Say No Bubble, But Can’t Pick Superbowl Anymore”

  1. Dave Platter says:

    Interesting. I wonder, do the online gamblers know something we don’t? Or are the odds in an online gambling market more like the results of a national survey, where there are enough participants voicing their personal forecasts for the online betting markets to give an accurate picture of overall public opinion.