David Leonhardt’s article today about Online Betters was quite good. Using the odds fleshed out by online traders, you could have:

  • Predicted the winner presidential election for all 50 states in 2004
  • 85% of recent Emmy winners
  • The current American Idol winner

The NYT article says that online gamblers see no sign of a housing bubble anytime soon…

poker

Not sure I want to rely on this as a way to get comfortable with the real estate economy but it is tempting. One could argue that the recent poker craze, is a sign of speculative environment.

Then we get into predicting presidential elections..
2004 Predicting a Bush Victory [The Formula]

Using the Superbowl…

footballillustrated This brings to mind Superbowl predictors of presidential elections called The Superbowl Effect:

2000 It’s Redskins vs. the markets in the presidential race
1996 NFL Index Predicts Super Year For Stocks


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One Response to “The Gamblers Say No Bubble, But Can’t Pick Superbowl Anymore”

  1. Dave Platter says:

    Interesting. I wonder, do the online gamblers know something we don’t? Or are the odds in an online gambling market more like the results of a national survey, where there are enough participants voicing their personal forecasts for the online betting markets to give an accurate picture of overall public opinion.