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Business 360 Forecast: Manhattan’s Mug Is Half Full

As Jason Kidd, upon being drafted to the Dallas Mavericks pro basketball team declared:

We’re going to turn this team around
360 degrees.

About 5 years ago, John Marchant of Business360 approached me to provide information for his forecast of the Manhattan real estate market. The forecast would use information generated during the preparation of our quarterly market reports. He impressed me with his insight and I was even more impressed with his approach to the research as well as his candor.

Business360 is a high-quality information and business services company, underpinned by a unique and flexible resourcing model and large global team of specialists and generalists. This particular report and related forecasts have been covered in The New York Times, Crain’s, New York Observer and The Financial Times.

Here’s their track record:

But their forecast remains a contrarian viewpoint:

Prices are falling in other U.S. markets and the situation in Manhattan is increasingly unclear. Confidence and psychology are important factors in the market and today Manhattan’s market looks to be at a balance point. Supply is up strongly and buyers are holding back, making for a stalemate. Prices have run up very strongly over the last seven years or so, greatly outstripping personal income gains, and many believe prices should pull back to bring them in line. However, a review of prices over a 25-year period, or against the last peak in 1987, suggests that prices have room to rise.

The report is available to download for a modest fee ($99) [1].

However, since John is a better negotiator than I am, I get nothing financial out of the deal, other than a copy of the report and a free round when we go out to bend an elbow.