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But Buyer Psychology Is Part Of Market Value

The NAR says consumer psychology is to blame [1].

“Homebuyers have been getting mixed signals about the housing market, which is causing some of them to hesitate”

Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, who has taken torch [2] from controversial former chief economist David Lereah, said some consumers are uncertain (yes, 1/3 fewer sales):

“Home buyers have been getting mixed signals about the housing market, which is causing some of them to hesitate,” he said. “Mortgage interest rates have risen recently, and tightening lending standards are continuing to hamper sales, but fewer risky loans will put the market on a healthier path. Although general buying conditions remain favorable for long-term home buyers, it appears some buyers are looking for more signs of stability before they have enough confidence to make an offer.”

Ok. Lun has moved beyond blaming the weather [3] to blaming buyers. This strikes me as odd.

Lets look at the use of the word value.

The most probable price (in terms of money) which a property should bring in a competitive and open market under all conditions requisite to a fair sale, the buyer and seller each acting prudently and knowledgeably, and assuming the price is not affected by undue stimulus. Implicit in this definition is the consummation of a sale as of a specified date and the passing of title from seller to buyer under conditions whereby: the buyer and seller are typically motivated; both parties are well informed or well advised, and acting in what they consider their best interests; a reasonable time is allowed for exposure in the open market; payment is made in terms of cash in United States dollars or in terms of financial arrangements comparable thereto; and the price represents the normal consideration for the property sold unaffected by special or creative financing or sales concessions granted by anyone associated with the sale.

Value is steeped in consumer psychology [4]. Its about perception about a future benefit.

Consumer psychology is the study of how people relate to the products and services that they purchase or use.

So the measurement of how people relate to the housing market, is the value they place on it. So value is part psychology. When someone makes an offer on a house, its the amount they feel is justified and correlated to their perception of the benefit of ownership in the future (phew!).

In other words, Lun is blaming the value buyers place on the housing market as keeping them from buying them. Actually, its also a tired reference to blaming the media for housings’ troubles.

So a buyer won’t buy because the value they see in the property isn’t enough to make them want to buy. Isn’t this a circular reference?

or to put it another way…huh?