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[Three Cents Worth NY #238] New Developments Cross Luxury Threshold

July 26, 2013 | 11:17 am | | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Mortgage rates are rising and that’s probably a good long-term thing for the housing market in NYC and nationwide. One of the biggest misunderstandings about the market is the correlation between mortgage interest rate and price trends—sometimes I’ll get caught up in it myself. The logic follows that rising mortgage rates will leave less room for principal in the monthly housing payment and then prices fall. Makes sense logically if you don’t factor in access to credit. In the short term, changes in mortgage rates may have some knee jerk impact on prices—we often see demand surges with sudden rate changes—but over the long term it’s hard to pin down the cause and effect relationship between rates and prices using actual data. It’s never been successfully correlated to my knowledge…


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My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: New Developments Cross Luxury Threshold [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
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[Three Cents Worth NY #237] Manhattan Prices ‘n Rates Don’t Jibe

July 11, 2013 | 10:45 pm | | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Mortgage rates are rising and that’s probably a good long-term thing for the housing market in NYC and nationwide. One of the biggest misunderstandings about the market is the correlation between mortgage interest rate and price trends—sometimes I’ll get caught up in it myself. The logic follows that rising mortgage rates will leave less room for principal in the monthly housing payment and then prices fall. Makes sense logically if you don’t factor in access to credit. In the short term, changes in mortgage rates may have some knee jerk impact on prices—we often see demand surges with sudden rate changes—but over the long term it’s hard to pin down the cause and effect relationship between rates and prices using actual data. It’s never been successfully correlated to my knowledge…


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My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan Prices ‘n Rates Don’t Jibe [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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[Three Cents Worth NY #236] Manhattan Paying and Overpaying

July 11, 2013 | 10:38 pm | | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Better late than never…Check out my 3CW column from 2 weeks ago on @CurbedNY:

This week—as many who follow the market leave for the holiday fireworks to take a break from the market fireworks—I thought I’d take a look at the percentage of buyers who are paying full price and above list price. The list price used here was the asking price in place at the time of the contract, not the original list price. I’ve been tracking this since the market peak and I went back and updated the historical with additional data I’ve collected…


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My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan Paying and Overpaying [Curbed] Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
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Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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[Three Cents Worth NY #235] Manhattan Regional Sales in 3D

June 18, 2013 | 5:47 pm | | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

As much as I dislike 3D charts and don’t want Curbed readers to wear 3D glasses smeared with greasy popcorn butter, I thought I’d use them on a simple topic. For each quarterly market report release, I group Manhattan into four distinct geographic regions and measure the market share of their sales during each quarter. This chart shows the market share of each region based on sales activity by region…


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My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan Regional Sales in 3D [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
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[Three Cents Worth NY #234] Manhattan’s Stormy Listing Trend

June 12, 2013 | 3:50 pm | | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

This week I took a look at Manhattan’s year-over-year listing trends by the number of bedrooms on a weekly basis. I threw in a few milestones using ridiculous artwork (hey, this is Curbed!) to help provide some context. To state the obvious, listing inventory is very volatile and there are periods of time where certain segments stray from the pack. It’s clear that the top end of the market (four bedrooms, pink line) strayed the most over the past few years as many owners tried to piggyback onto a handful of trophy sales…


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My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan’s Stormy Listing Trend [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
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[Three Cents Worth NY #233] I’ll Take (Manhattan) “Combo” Apartment

June 5, 2013 | 12:15 pm | | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

With inventory hovering around record lows, we’ve started to observe more sales of combined apartments. Combined apartments (i.e. connecting two or more adjacent apartments) tend to have inferior layouts than their equivalent-sized counterparts that were originally designed by the building architect. We are seeing more “combo” sales now and are also performing more hallway appraisals as of late (where apartment owners acquire the end of a hallway to enhance the layout of combined apartments)…

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Today’s Post: Three Cents Worth: I’ll Take (Manhattan) “Combo” Apartment [Curbed]
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[Three Cents Worth NY #232] The Manhattan GRM Is Too Damn High

May 29, 2013 | 10:19 am | | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Not a very original title, but after realizing the long weekend was unfairly ending after only three days, I took a look at the relationship between sales prices and rental prices through the “gross rent multiplier” aka GRM. I presented the relationship between median sales price and annualized median rental price since 1991 as a ratio…

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Today’s Post: Three Cents Worth: The Manhattan GRM Is Too Damn High [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
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[Three Cents Worth NY #231] Manhattan Sales, Rentals Not Opposites

May 15, 2013 | 1:13 pm | | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out today’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

I thought I’d take a look at price growth between the Manhattan rental market and sales market over the past decade. I am struck by how many of us have the default view that these two markets always move in opposite directions, myself included. In other words, if rental prices are rising, sales prices must be falling and vice versa. I trended the year-over-year change in median rental price and median sales price over the decade. I also inserted significant US housing milestones along the way but left out the ’13 launch of Iron Man 3…


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Today’s Post: Three Cents Worth: Manhattan Sales, Rentals Not Opposites [Curbed]
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[Three Cents Worth NY #230] Manhattan Sales Wave More of a Bell Curve

May 12, 2013 | 1:09 pm | | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out today’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Since Manhattan sales are fairly heavy right now—basically we’re at High Noon of the annual housing market cycle—I wanted to look at how important spring is to the market and explore how housing sales patterns have changed over the past few decades. I plotted the sales market share for each quarter and separated them into their own charts. For example: 2Q 2012 (last year’s spring market) had sales that represented 25.2 percent of all sales for 2012. I then applied a trend line to each quarter to cut through the volatility. The four quarters (sort of) correlate with the four seasons…


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Today’s Post: Three Cents Worth: Manhattan Sales Wave More of a Bell Curve [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
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[Three Cents Worth NY #229] $3,000 is the new $1,500 in Manhattan

April 23, 2013 | 11:45 am | | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out today’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Given all the hype about new development product entering the listing-starved Manhattan market over the next couple of years, I thought I’d take a look at the market share of co-ops and condos over the last decade (the boom and bust era), but in a different way. For the uninitiated, Manhattan co-op housing units outnumber condo units 3:1 (i.e. 75 percent v. 25 percent market share)…


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Today’s Post: Three Cents Worth: $3,000 is the new $1,500 in Manhattan [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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[Three Cents Worth NY #228] Manhattan Inventory on a Slippery Slope

April 23, 2013 | 11:35 am | | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out last week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

It’s no secret that the lack of supply has turned the housing market inside out right now. We are seeing multiple bids on a larger portion of the sales and no immediate relief in sight. I took a look at inventory trends over the past five years to explore how we got here. I separated out the market by re-sale and new development to explore the differences…


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Today’s Post: Manhattan Inventory on a Slippery Slope [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
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Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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[Three Cents Worth NY #227] A Dozen Manhattan Housing Market Stages

March 26, 2013 | 1:26 pm | | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

After reviewing an appraisal of a Manhattan sales transaction yesterday that had more than a dozen backup offers above list price (and not the first such situation we’ve seen recently), I thought I’d keep the listing inventory discussion train rolling on 3CW. I looked at a 12-year monthly co-op and condo inventory and named the housing stage at beginning of each year. Incidentally, Manhattan inventory has collapsed 54.5 percent from peak. The monthly 12+ year co-op and condo average is 7,292….


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Today’s Post: A Dozen Manhattan Housing Market Stages [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami

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