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3Q 2008 Long Island Market Overview Available For Download

October 29, 2008 | 1:32 pm | | Reports |

The 3Q 2008 Long Island Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. Due to demand, I expanded the Long Island/Queens Market Overview into two separate reports.

To review the report methodology.

An excerpt

…The median sales price for the fifth consecutive quarter has fallen from the prior year quarter and seven of the last eight quarters. The Median sales price at $415,000 was down 6.2% from $442,380 in the same period last year. Median sales price is off 7.8% from its peak two years ago during the same period when it was $445,521. Average sales price saw a similar pattern suggesting that the price decline was not due to a skew in the mix of what sold over the quarter. The average sales price was $508,936 this quarter, down 7.3% from the prior year quarter result of $548,883…

Download report: 3Q 2008 Long Island Market Overview [pdf]



[Buying The Brooklyn Bridge] 3Q 2008 Brooklyn Market Overview Available For Download

October 17, 2008 | 10:17 am | | Reports |

The 3Q 2008 Brooklyn Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was just released.

Look for lots of additional data and charts on the market in the coming weeks.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

Historical aggregate data is online (which I will continue to expand) and a series of charts will also be available soon.

An excerpt

…The overall average sales price of a Brooklyn residential property was $575,287 this quarter, down 4.7% from the $603,428 average sales price of the same period last year. Median sales price showed a similar pattern, slipping 5.6% to $510,000 this quarter from $540,000 in the prior year quarter. There was a 4.5% decline in the condo median sales price to $505,493 over the same period which is consistent with the overall market. Co-ops showed little change in median sales price borough-wide over the same period. The median sales price of a co-op was down 1.7% to $280,000. The median sales price of 1-3 Family properties declined 3.2% to $600,000, Luxury properties were consistent with the overall market sliding 3.4% to $1,210,000…



[Presidential Reporting] 3Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

October 6, 2008 | 7:55 pm | | Reports |

The 3Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released on Friday.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 3Q 2008 data and a series of updated charts are also available

An excerpt

…The average price per square foot of all new development was $1,320 this quarter, down 1.5% from the prior year quarter. The average price per square foot of a re-sale apartment was up 4.3% to $1,142 per square foot as the bulk of higher end new development has been absorbed while higher end re-sale properties continue to sell…The impact of the credit contraction, associated volatility in the financial markets, as well as unprecedented government bailouts on a federal level have not shown up in the market data for the quarter. The key metrics to consider going forward are the lower level of sales activity compared to last year’s record levels and the rise of inventory. The reduction in affordable mortgage products continues to hamper buyers in New York as well as most housing markets across the country. The upcoming quarter begins with modest inventory levels and the likelihood of a reduction in new development units entering the housing stock next year due to the credit contraction….

In 2005, I began posting the links of the coverage of each report to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting way to look at how this information is interpreted and presented.

The media coverage of the report was provided here as they were released (in no particular order). The headlines selected provide an interesting media perspective of the report contents since everyone was working off the same information.



[In The Media] CNBC Squawk Box 10-3-08

October 5, 2008 | 6:25 pm | | TV, Videos |

We released the 3Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview on Friday for Prudential Douglas Elliman.

CNBC offered to have me come to their studio in NJ, which is a terrific facility, but I had a tight schedule as a result of the report release and opted to do this at 30 Rock.

We’ll have the formal report here on Monday afternoon. The unanticipated frenzy of coverage put me a little behind schedule. I had hoped to post the report on Friday. Oh, well.

Here’s the clip


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[Tonight] A Trifecta Evening In Long Island City

September 18, 2008 | 2:28 pm | | Public |

Long Island City has been one of those segments of the New York City real estate market that has quietly experienced fairly broad consumer acceptance in a short period of time. This is evidenced by the large level of purchase activity over the past several years in response to new development efforts. As a result, residential support services are entering the market at an impressive pace.

Located in Queens, Long Island City has signifiant linkage to Manhattan. The new residential condominium developments in Long Island City are generally selling for roughly half the price per square foot of similar product in Manhattan and yet is only a few minutes away from Manhattan via subway. (That’s how I plan to get there tonight.)

At 6:30 this evening, Dottie Herman, CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman and I will first speak at The Powerhouse Condominium and then at 7:30 we will speak at L Haus Condominium to the brokers attending the event. Her firm’s New Homes Development Group is handling the marketing of both developments plus a nearby property that is already being marketed called The Foundry and they are included in the event as well.

Should be fun.


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[In The Media] Data Minefield: Knowing Its Limitations

August 22, 2008 | 12:24 am | | Public |

Yesterday, Newsday ran nearly a full page story with my photo on the first page (different from the print version) of their business section discussing the vast array of housing information out there. The reporter’s article idea originated last week when I was interviewed for the release of the Prudential Douglas Elliman Long Island/Queen Market Overview I prepare and my plans to expand coverage and separate these two market areas.

Housing and mortgage reports are barometers of the market, but may not necessarily portray a complete picture. For example, one report may have higher numbers while another might not cover certain sales.

In other words, the size and quality of the data set defines the markets a report should cover. “Cart before the horse” so to speak.

Experts like Miller Samuel CEO Jonathan Miller say the full picture is in knowing the limits of the data

Manhattan-based appraiser Jonathan Miller bases his quarterly sales reports on numbers from the MLS, but he said he noticed a year ago that the records were a few thousand sales shorter for Queens than those in New York City’s property records.

I found the following comment by LIBOR puzzling because I was not criticizing their quality whatsoever. In fact, the quality of their information is excellent.

The Long Island Board of Realtors disputed the discrepancy, saying it compiles data recorded by brokers.

The point I was making is that by definition, MLS data in any market is a subset of the entire market. Their data set may represent nearly all sales or a small portion of sales. Their data set may serve as a proxy for the entire market or it may not. If an analyst has the means to collect data in excess of the quantity available from a local MLS, it only serves to benefit market participants.


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[East End] 2Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview Available For Download

July 30, 2008 | 6:10 pm | | Reports |

The online version of the Prudential Douglas Elliman 2Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is available for download.

I have been writing various incarnations of the New York regional market report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

To build Hamptons/North Fork custom data tables

To view Hamptons/North Fork charts

An excerpt

…The upper price range of the housing market continues to outperform the overall housing market. In each of the past four quarters, the luxury market, defined as the upper ten percent of all sales, saw a higher year over year quarterly increase in median sales price than the overall market. The luxury market increased 10.3% in median sales price and the overall market declined 9.2% in median sales price compared to the same period last year. The market area south of the highway consistently has the highest overall prices as compared to the areas to the north and on either side of the canal. Of the four regions, only south of the highway saw an increase in median sales price of 1% as compared to the prior year quarter…

Download report: 2Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]



2Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

July 17, 2008 | 12:01 am | | Reports |

The 2Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We took over the preparation of this market area study for them in 2Q 06.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

An excerpt

…In continuation of last quarter’s market pattern, the pace of inventory growth and the pace in the decline in the number of sales continue to slow but still show weakening market conditions. The lower level of activity is reflective of stressed economic conditions and more stringent underwriting guidelines of mortgage lenders, who are requiring larger down payments, tighter ratios and higher credit scores. Despite a decline in activity, price indicators were essentially unchanged from the prior year quarter. There is an expectation of higher sales activity in the third quarter as spillover from the spring market activity closes in the summer months…

Download report: 2Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]



[No Sleep Till Brooklyn] 2Q 2008 Brooklyn Market Overview Available For Download

July 11, 2008 | 12:52 am | | Reports |

The 2Q 2008 Brooklyn Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was just released.

It is the first comprehensive report of the entire borough, which is sort of surprising to me. Look for lots of additional data and charts on the market in the coming weeks. No sleep till Brooklyn!

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

A year’s worth of historical aggregate data (will have 5 years online in the coming weeks) and a series of charts will also be available soon.

An excerpt

…The median sales price of a residential property in Brooklyn slipped 1.9% to $525,000 from $535,000 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price increased overall due to the influence of new condo development activity on overall prices. The average sales price of a Brooklyn property was $588,441 this quarter, 2.4% higher than the prior year quarter average sales price of $574,454. Condo prices, on a price per square foot basis, were up 16.4% to $575 from $494 in the prior year quarter. There is broad disparity between new development and re-sale condo prices. The price per square foot of a condo in a new development was $649 per square foot, up 27.5% from the $509 price per square foot of the prior year quarter. Over the same period, re-sale condos averaged $496 per square foot, up 7.4% from the $462 price per square foot of the prior year quarter…

In 2005, I began posting the links of the coverage of each report to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting way to look at how this information is interpreted and presented.

The media coverage of the report will be provided here as they are released over the week (in no particular order).

Brooklyn home sales skid 44%; prices slip [New York Daily News]
Brooklyn Home Sales Drop 44% as Banks Tighten Lending [Bloomberg]
Brooklyn’s home sales and prices cooling [Crains New York]
Williamsburg, Greenpoint Home Prices Jump As Borough-Wide Sales Slump [NY Observer]
New Condos Saving Brooklyn Housing Market [NY Sun]
Brooklyn sales volume sees sharp drop [The Real Deal]
Second Quarter Brooklyn Market Report: Sales Nosedive! [Curbed]
Miller Samuel Report: Sales Down; Bstone, Burg Prices Up [Brownstoner]
‘KINGS’ ZINGED [NY Post]


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[In The Media] PDE TV Conversation With Dottie Herman

July 7, 2008 | 12:20 am | | Public |


Jonathan Miller, President & CEO, Miller Samuel
Dottie Herman, President & CEO, Prudential Douglas Elliman

To hear the clip.

I have been writing a series of markets reports covering the New York region for about 14 years via Prudential Douglas Elliman. It’s been a lot of fun to do them, especially in a market that lives, breathes, eats and sleeps real estate. The popularity of our neutral report series continues to motivate us to expand the geography and types of property it covers. Can we say Brooklyn, finally?

Last week we released the 2Q 08 Manhattan Market Overview. One of the recent efforts to bring the results and interpretation of the market to the consumer and the real estate industry is by a video conversation on the market, which Dottie and I began last quarter.

Call me crazy, but I always find it refreshing to hear candor rather than processed press release speak.

Catch the subliminal green blip near the end of the clip? Are you suddenly hungry for pizza?


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[In The Media] Bloomberg TV Interview for 7-2-08

July 2, 2008 | 11:22 pm | | Public |

This afternoon I was invited to appear on Bloomberg Television’s In Focus program to recap the results of the 2Q 08 Manhattan Market Overview I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman.

Here’s the clip.

I enjoy appearing on Bloomberg because they are so darn efficient. No awkwardness in any aspect of their facilities.

Nice people to deal with too, and of course, a free snack bar (incidentally, Fig Newtons rule)


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[Party Like Its 2009] 2Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

July 2, 2008 | 11:58 am | | Public |

The 2Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today. Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The data and a series of charts are also available

An excerpt

…Like the prior quarter, fewer sales occurred compared to the prior year quarter, but more than the corresponding quarter two years prior. There were 3,081 co-op and condo sales collected at the close of the quarter, down 21.8% from the prior year quarter. The decline in activity was evenly spread across coop and condo property types with the lower level of demand related to tighter credit and a weaker economy. With tighter credit conditions for market participants existing today as compared to last year, it is reasonable to expect a lower level of activity relative to 2007 for the remainder of 2008. In fact, there were more co-op and condo sales in 2007 than in any other year over the past 20 years…

In 2005, I began posting the links of the coverage of each report to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting way to look at how this information is interpreted and presented.

The media coverage of the report will be provided here as they are released over the week (in no particular order).

Manhattan Second-Quarter Apartment Sales Fall by 22% (Update1) [Bloomberg]
Manhattan apartment prices zoom but more on market [Reuters]
Wall Street’s ills weaken Manhattan apartment sales [NY Daily News]
Curbed Roundtable: July State O’ the Market Report [Curbed]
Manhattan housing prices edge up, but sales slow [The Real Deal]
The High-End End? [New York Observer]
Manhattan apartment sales drop, but prices climb [Associated Press/Businessweek]
Manhattan housing market slows [Crains New York Business]
Manhattan real estate starts to soften [CNN/Money]
Apartment Sales Remain Vigorous in Manhattan [New York Times]
City Housing Slump May Hit In 2009 [New York Sun]
MANHATTAN HIGH ROLLERS’ HIGH-RI$E HEAVEN [New York Post]
Sales still falling in Manhattan [Inman News]

[July 2, 2008] Bloomberg TV

[July 2, 2008] NY1 TV


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