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[Party Like Its 2009] 2Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

July 2, 2008 | 11:58 am | | Public |

The 2Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today. Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The data and a series of charts are also available

An excerpt

…Like the prior quarter, fewer sales occurred compared to the prior year quarter, but more than the corresponding quarter two years prior. There were 3,081 co-op and condo sales collected at the close of the quarter, down 21.8% from the prior year quarter. The decline in activity was evenly spread across coop and condo property types with the lower level of demand related to tighter credit and a weaker economy. With tighter credit conditions for market participants existing today as compared to last year, it is reasonable to expect a lower level of activity relative to 2007 for the remainder of 2008. In fact, there were more co-op and condo sales in 2007 than in any other year over the past 20 years…

In 2005, I began posting the links of the coverage of each report to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting way to look at how this information is interpreted and presented.

The media coverage of the report will be provided here as they are released over the week (in no particular order).

Manhattan Second-Quarter Apartment Sales Fall by 22% (Update1) [Bloomberg]
Manhattan apartment prices zoom but more on market [Reuters]
Wall Street’s ills weaken Manhattan apartment sales [NY Daily News]
Curbed Roundtable: July State O’ the Market Report [Curbed]
Manhattan housing prices edge up, but sales slow [The Real Deal]
The High-End End? [New York Observer]
Manhattan apartment sales drop, but prices climb [Associated Press/Businessweek]
Manhattan housing market slows [Crains New York Business]
Manhattan real estate starts to soften [CNN/Money]
Apartment Sales Remain Vigorous in Manhattan [New York Times]
City Housing Slump May Hit In 2009 [New York Sun]
MANHATTAN HIGH ROLLERS’ HIGH-RI$E HEAVEN [New York Post]
Sales still falling in Manhattan [Inman News]

[July 2, 2008] Bloomberg TV

[July 2, 2008] NY1 TV


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[In The Media] Lawline Clip for 5-22-08

May 29, 2008 | 3:47 pm | | Public |

Back in March, I was invited back to do another appearance on Lawline TV. I had the pleasure of appearing with Jacky Teplitsky of Prudential Douglas Elliman. Alan Schnurman has been hosting this show for nearly 30 years I believe. He’s good interviewer and apparently a very successful real estate investor.

This interview was done before I had compiled my Q1 08 stats but it wouldn’t have changed the content of my presentation.

View the clip (There is no direct link to the interview so look for “The Impact of Economic Downturn on the Real Estate Market”)


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[East End] 1Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview Available For Download

April 30, 2008 | 1:39 pm | | Reports |

The online version of the Prudential Douglas Elliman 1Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is available for download.

I have been writing various incarnations of the New York regional market report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

To build Hamptons/North Fork custom data tables

To view Hamptons/North Fork charts

An excerpt

…Both median and average sales price indicators were above levels reached in the prior year quarter. There was an upward skew in average sales price not seen in the change in median sales price, which was $790,000 up 1.9% over the prior year period median sales price of $775,000. The average sales price was $1,728,610 this quarter, up 16.8% above the prior year quarter, the second highest quarterly average sales price after the third quarter of 2007, which had an average sales price of $1,805,104.

Besides the rise in price indicators within the top 20% of the market, perhaps one of the more striking characteristics of the East End was the decline in overall number of sales. The lower volume of sales activity is largely attributable to the declining national economic climate, tighter credit and a weaker employment picture in the New York City financial services sector…

Download report: 1Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]



1Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

April 16, 2008 | 1:01 pm | | Reports |

The 1Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We took over the preparation of this market area study for them in 2Q 06.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

An excerpt

..Price indicators for the quarter will mixed as compared to the same period a year ago. The average sales price was $514,135, up 3.6% while the median sales price of $435,000 was down 0.6%. The number of sales were down 14.1% to 6,015 units while inventory levels were up 10.2% to 35,209 units. A weaker economy and difficulties with access to credit have tempered the demand for housing compared to the past several years. The expansion of the days on market indicator and rising inventory levels are the result of reduced demand, yet the pace of inventory growth is easing. The next quarter tends to be the most active quarter of the year as characterized by elevated sales activity and price growth…

Download report: 1Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]



[Transition Report] 1Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

April 2, 2008 | 12:02 am | | Public |

The 1Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today. Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The data and a series of charts will be uploaded today as well.

An excerpt

…The elevated pace of sales from the past 5 quarters cools as the volatility in the financial markets begins to touch Manhattan. Based on activity in the first quarter it is likely that the record number of sales in 2007 will not be repeated in 2008. Sales in the current quarter declined to levels seen two years ago. The reduction of available credit, less favorable mortgage terms, the national economy moving towards a recession and the specter of additional layoffs in the financial services sector over the next two years has begun to restrain the demand for Manhattan residential real estate. Still, the regional economy is performing well, tourism and hotel occupancy rates are at or near record levels and the New York City government is financially well positioned for the next two years. The US dollar has set new lows against several currencies, which continues to bring new sources of demand, with specific emphasis on condo new development projects….

In 2005, I began posting the links of the coverage of each report to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting experience.

The media coverage of the report will be provided here as they are released over the week.

Manhattan Apartment Prices Hit Record High Despite Slump [NYT]
Housing Slump — in New York ? [WSJ]
Manhattan Condo, Co-op Sales Decline Most in 18 Years (Update2) [Bloomberg]
Trouble in the sky-rise? [The Economist]
Co-op, condo sales dive in Manhattan [NY Daily News]
Manhattan apartment prices increase [The Real Deal]
Manhattan Home Sales Slow, Prices Rise [AP]
Manhattan apartment prices rise but sales fall [Reuters]
First Quarter Reports: Real Estate Cooling [New York Sun]
Average Manhattan home hits record $1.6 million [CNN/Money]
Manhattan apartments: prices up, sales down [Crain’s]
First Quarter Market Reports: Prices Up, Sales Down [Curbed]
Condos Ascendant! But What Price Victory? [New York Observer]
Manhattan Apartments Remain Pricey, Slowdown Ahead [Gothamist]
NYC home sales drop [Times Leader (PA)]
Housing Market Tracker – It’s About Affordability, Stupid.[Seeking Alpha]
Manhattan Home Sales Slow, Prices Rise [Huffington Post]
Manhattan apartment sales drop off in 1st quarter, but prices still climb due to luxury sales [MN Star Tribune]
Real estate data show market cooling [Metro.US]
Property in Manhattan at an 18 year Low [Investment Markets]
What Slump? Manhattan Housing Prices Hit Record High [NY1]

Radio and TV clips

[April 2, 2008] CNN en Espanol
[April 2, 2008] Bloomberg TV
[April 2, 2008] NY 1
April 2, 2008] Bloomberg Radio


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[East End Round-up] 4Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview Available For Download

April 1, 2008 | 10:10 pm | | Reports |

Although it is April Fool’s Day, I realized I was negligent in posting the Hamptons/North Fork report on Matrix and my web site (hey, I know 1Q 08 is now over and I am working on that report.) The report was previously available at the Prudential Douglas Elliman site.

The PDF version of the 4Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is available for download. I have been writing various incarnations of my New York regional market report series for them since 1994.

In short order (by 1Q 08), I’ll be adding data tables and charts to the Miller Samuel web site.

An excerpt

…The average sales price of an East End property was $1,487,161 in the current quarter, up 17.6% from the $1,264,165 average sales price of the same period last year. Median sales price, which generally eliminates price outliers, showed a similar pattern. The median sales price was $800,000, an increase of 14.7% above the prior year quarter median sales price of $697,500. Over the past few years, the year over year pace of price growth in the third quarter has been larger than any other quarter of the year. The higher price levels reached in the third quarter have inferred quarter over quarter weakness going to the fourth quarter…Over the past year, the pace of price increases in the East End has been higher in the luxury sector…

Download report: 4Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]



1998-2007 Manhattan Market Report Available For Download

March 16, 2008 | 2:05 pm | | Reports |

The PDF version of the 1998-2007 Manhattan Market Report [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for PDE since 1994. The report is the aggregate of the four previous quarterly reports.

More than 90,000 co-op and condo sales transactions from more than 6,400 buildings over the last ten years were analyzed. Each of the 53 different market areas was analyzed with data tables and charts as well as a summary matrix with prior year and prior decade comparisons.

“The Phone Book” is heavy on numbers and charts and light on text.

In addition, you can see the [methodology]) that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

An excerpt

…The average sales price of a Manhattan apartment set a record for the 11th consecutive year. In 1996, the unadjusted average sales price was $399,501. The 2007 average sales price was $1,351,621, up 4.3% over the prior year record of $1,295,445 and up 238.3% from the average sales price in 1996, when this trend began. However, the pace of price growth has slowed for the second consecutive year. After a recent high water market of 21.6% price growth in 2005, the pace of overall price growth slowed to 6.1% in 2006 and 4.3% in 2007. There were a record 13,430 sales in 2007, a 58.1% increase over the 2006 total of 8,493 sales. The 2006 number of sales total had been consistent with the 8,510 average annual number of sales over the preceding decade. The significant increase in the number of sales this year resulted in a 13.5% drop in inventory levels. Without the addition of new development to the housing stock in 2007, the decline is re-sale inventory was more pronounced. There was a 26.2% year over year decline in the number of co-op apartments listed for sale, yet the number of condo units was unchanged. Co-op apartments are primarily comprised of re-sales because new development entering the market is nearly exclusive to condo property types. The year over year change in condo inventory was 0% indicating that the sharp decline in re-sale inventory seen in the co-op market was offset by new development condo inventory being added to the market….

Download report: 1998-2007 Manhattan Market Report [pdf]


1998-2007 Manhattan Townhouse Report Available For Download

March 16, 2008 | 1:14 pm | | Reports |

The PDF version of the 1998-2007 Manhattan Townhouse Report that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman is available for download. I have been writing various reports on the New York region since 1994.

In addition, you can see the methodology that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

An excerpt

Over 2,500 Manhattan residential townhouse transactions were analyzed over this ten year period. 1, 2 and 3-5 (delivered vacant) family houses comprised the data set.

…The average sales price of a Manhattan townhouse was a record $4,658,155 in 2007, up 14.1% from the prior year record average sales price of $4,082,837. The 2007 record is more than twice, or 116.5% higher than the $2,151,653 average sales price in 1998. Median sales price showed a similar pattern. The median sales price for 2007 was a record $3,125,000, up 15.7% from the prior year record median sales price of $2,700,000. Because the average square footage of townhouses dropped sharply in the past year, the average price per square foot jumped over the same period. Average price per square foot reached a record $1,137 in 2007, up 32.8% above the $856 price per square foot seen in 2006. This indicator is 145% above the $464 average price per square foot in 1998. Other than the decline seen from 2000 to 2001, the price per square foot has been the same or higher than the prior year for the past decade….

Download report: 1998-2007 Manhattan Townhouse Report [pdf]



4Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

February 8, 2008 | 11:40 am | | Reports |

The 4Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We introduced this market area study in 2Q 06 for them.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

_An excerpt_

…The overall median sales price for Long Island/Queens showed a decline over the prior year quarter. Over the same period, average sales price showed a similar pattern of decline as did the number of sales. Listing inventory continued to expand as did the days on market and listing discount indicators. These market patterns are being seen in many suburban markets across the country, made worse by the turmoil seen in the credit markets since last summer. This has impacted affordability with higher down payment requirements, and more stringent underwriting guidelines applied to buyer mortgage applications. A constraint on the flow of transactions has the effect of reducing the number of sales, which in turn raises inventory levels and tempers the potential for rising prices in the spring market…

Download report: 4Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]



[Contrarian Report] 4Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview

January 19, 2008 | 1:28 am | | Radio |

The 4Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released earlier this month. I neglected to post this on Matrix earlier because [insert excuse here]. Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The data and a series of charts are also available.

About two years ago, I began posting the links of the coverage of each report to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting process.

Here was some of report coverage based on the same data (you get the idea):

The Link List

The New York Times Wall Street Journal Bloomberg New York Daily News The New York Post CNN/Money Reuters The Real Deal Financial Times The New York Observer Inman News Pravda New York Magazine The Guardian (UK) Gothamist

Radio and TV clips

[January 3, 2008] WNBC-TV
[January 3, 2008] Bloomberg – On The Economy
[January 3, 2008] WCBS
[January 3, 2008] WPIX
[January 3, 2008] Fox 5 TV
[January 3, 2008] Bloomberg TV
[January 3, 2008] WABC TV
[January 3, 2008] WNBC HD TV
[January 3, 2008] NY -1
[January 3, 2008] Fox Business Network
WCBS Radio
NPR Radio


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[Introducing] 3Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview Available For Download

December 23, 2007 | 2:19 pm | | Reports |

Well, its been a long time coming because extracting data from the East End has been the most challenging of all the reports I have done to date, but the Hamptons/North Fork has finally been added to the family of market reports I prepare for Prudential Douglas Elliman.

The PDF version of the 3Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is available for download. I have been writing various incarnations of this market report series for them since 1994.

In short order (by 4Q), I’ll be adding data tables and charts to the Miller Samuel web site.

An excerpt

…The average sales price of a residential property in the East End was $1,805,104 this quarter, up 32.7% from the prior year quarter average sales price of $1,360,515 and up 8.2% from the prior quarter average sales price of $1,668,657. The median sales price was $882,000, up 23% from the prior year quarter median sales price of $717,340 but slipped 2% from the $900,000 median sales price in the prior quarter. The nearly identical growth in these indicators from the prior year quarter suggests that average sales price was not significantly skewed by the upper end of the market. Listing inventory, however, increased 27.8% from the prior quarter total of 3,501 units to 4,475 units in the current quarter. The tracking of inventory levels for this report began in 2007….In contrast to the rise in price indicators, the number of sales continued to slip. There were 427 sales in the current quarter, down 30.5% from the prior year quarter total of 614 and down 31.6% from the prior quarter total of 624 units. The sharp increase in price levels has likely played a significant role in the diminished number of sales this quarter. This is also consistent with the recent increase in listing inventory…

Download report: 3Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]



3Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

November 5, 2007 | 12:01 am | | Reports |

The 3Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We created this market area study in 2006.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

_An excerpt_

…Price trends varied widely by market and price segment. Inventory increased over the past year, but dropped as compared to the prior quarter as the number of sales has continued to decline. Average days on market and average listing discount expanded versus the prior year quarter but declined from the prior quarter. The mixed results for the quarter suggests that the overall Long Island/Queens market is moving “sideways” for the time being, with no clear pattern evident. The median sales price of a Long Island/Queens single family or condo was $445,000, down 2.2% from the prior year record median sales price of $455,000 and unchanged from the prior quarter median sales price. The average sales price was a record $530,916, up 1.3% from the record $524,073 seen in the prior year quarter and up 4.8% from the prior quarter average sales price of $506,580. Suffolk showed the most gains in average sales price with a record $469,331 average sales price, up 2.3% from the prior year quarter. Nassau was the next highest with a record $628,839 average sales price, up 1.7% from the prior year quarter. Queens showed the most weakness with a 2.9% decline to $484,847 from the record average sales price in the prior year quarter. The luxury market showed unexpected price growth this quarter as evidenced by the upper two quintiles in Suffolk and Nassau counties….

Download report: 3Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]


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