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Douglas Elliman

Business As Usual+: Miller Samuel Is To Be Acquired By Radar Logic

September 27, 2007 | 9:00 am | |


Its an exciting day for all of us at Miller Samuel.

Our firm, which has been tirelessly providing unbiased appraisal reports and market studies since 1986, is being acquired by Radar Logic, the data and analytics company enabling derivatives trading in the RPXâ„¢ market based on daily prices for residential real estate.

We are “business as usual”

Whats new?

  • We will be able to leverage our valuation and market reporting expertise with the groundbreaking data analytics pioneered by Radar Logic.

Stay tuned!

Press release [pdf].
Press Release [Market Wire].

Update:

Wonderfully complimentary blog posts:

A Champion reigns [Property Grunt]
Radar Logic to Acquire New York Real Estate Appraisal Firm Miller Samuel [Sellsius]
Radar Love for Miller Samuel [Altos research]

News stories:

Miller Samuel, Appraiser, to Be Sold to Radar Logic [Bloomberg]
Radar Logic to buy Miller Samuel [The Real Deal]
Miller Samuel acquired by Radar Logic [Crains]
Radar Logic acquires Miller Samuel [Inman News]



Business As Usual+: Miller Samuel Is To Be Acquired By Radar Logic

September 27, 2007 | 12:01 am | |


Its an exciting day for all of us at Miller Samuel.

Our firm, which has been tirelessly providing unbiased appraisal reports and market studies since 1986, is being acquired by Radar Logic, the data and analytics company enabling derivatives trading in the RPXâ„¢ market based on daily prices for residential real estate.

We are “business as usual”

Whats new?

  • We will be able to leverage our valuation and market reporting expertise with the groundbreaking data analytics pioneered by Radar Logic.

Stay tuned!

Press release [pdf].
Press Release [Market Wire].

Update:

Wonderfully complimentary blog posts:

A Champion reigns [Property Grunt]
Radar Logic to Acquire New York Real Estate Appraisal Firm Miller Samuel [Sellsius]
Radar Love for Miller Samuel [Altos research]

News stories:

Miller Samuel, Appraiser, to Be Sold to Radar Logic [Bloomberg]
Radar Logic to buy Miller Samuel [The Real Deal]
Miller Samuel acquired by Radar Logic [Crains]
Radar Logic acquires Miller Samuel [Inman News]


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A New York Story: Pop Goes The Country

September 18, 2007 | 10:11 am | | Public |

The bi-annual real estate issue of New York Magazine had been talking about a crash since 2003. However this year, they apply a more reasonable discussion to the burning question: Why is New York different and how long will it last? (since their new owners took over a few years ago, editorial content has returned the magazine to “must-read status”).

Aside: Of course I love the fact that the average sales price for Manhattan 2Q 2007 presented in the Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan Market Overview that my firm authors of $1,333,316 is on the cover (something about loving numbers).

While I am not in total agreement with all the content, it is a refreshing approach because the article tries to present both sides in a best and worst case scenario format. The take away is weighted toward the pessimistic view.

There is discussion of

Hyman Minsky’s ingenious model of asset bubbles, economic stability breeds riskier and riskier investors: First come the “hedge borrowers,” who play with their own money; they are followed by “speculative borrowers,” who have enough cash flow to keep the lender at bay but not enough to cover the principal investment, and finally “Ponzi borrowers,” who are, as the name suggests, borrowing to refinance other debts they can’t meet, in the wild hope that the market will keep climbing.

Of course, New York had very little speculation during the New York housing boom so this applies more to borrowing habits of market participants.

The article references economists I admire and have quoted in the past: Joseph Gyourko, Christopher Mayer, Todd Sinai, Edward Glaeser, Robert Shiller and Nouriel Roubini (whenever I am feeling too optimistic) plus several others. Brad Inman coins the phrase: “Irish Effect.” They also included my friend Noah Rosenblatt, who runs Urbandigs.com and is someone I recently discussed the housing market for hours after midnight on the tarmac of Atlantic City’s airport on a grounded jetBlue flight from the recent San Francisco Inman conference (how cool is that?).

Worst Case: In this scenario, a full-fledged credit crunch rips through the system. The August employment figures, showing no growth for the first time in four years, are the beginning of a serious downward trend. The economy heads for a hard landing, and an all-out recession ensues.

Best Case: In this instance, the current liquidity problem is contained by the end of the year. Employment figures pick up in September. Global growth continues.

A correction to the article is needed: The widely quoted Case Shiller Index doesn’t include co-op and condo sales as indicated in the article, which is 96.9% of the Manhattan sales market, nor does it include new development and foreclosures.

This just in: Lehman’s net declines, but less than analysts expectations.


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[Radar Dish] RPX Market Goes Live Today

September 17, 2007 | 2:37 pm | |

Here are a couple of new developments in my endeavor with Radar Logic….

The RPX market is now live!

Licensed dealers can now begin to write contracts on property derivatives based on the Radar Logic Daily Price indices.

Radar Logic now has our own page on the Bloomberg terminal system that the financial markets will use. Its RADR [go]

The Radar Logic web site is chock full of information about the products that we provide. Here’s a brochure about Radar Logic and the services we offer institutional investors.

Dottie Herman of Prudential Douglas Elliman writes about it…


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1997-2006 Manhattan Townhouse Report Available For Download

September 13, 2007 | 12:12 am | | Reports |

The PDF version of the 1997-2006 Manhattan Townhouse Report that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman is available for download. I have been writing this market report series for them since 1994.

Admittedly I am a little embarrassed that I let the report languish as we were sidetracked on other projects. A few months ago I decided to finally update the series and insert it back into a regular release schedule. It will be released shortly after the beginning of the year with the 2007 market data.

I am happy with the result since this level of detail hasn’t been presented before.

In addition, you can see the methodology that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

An excerpt

…The Manhattan townhouse market is a fixed form of residential housing stock that has very few new structures added due to limited acceptance of new construction. It accounted for 2.8% of all the sales over the past ten years, with a 3.1% market share in 2006. The average square footage was 4,188 in 2006, the average width was 19.1 feet and the average number of stories was 3.9. Over the past ten years, there has been a significant increase in market share of Uptown townhouses, growing from 6.2% of all townhouse sales in 1997 to 45.1% in 2006. The average sales price of a townhouse, excluding Uptown, was $6,398,223 in the current year, up 14.5% from the prior year average sales price of $5,587,277 in 2005 and up 251.2% from the $1,821,980 average sales price in 1997…

Download report: 1997-2006 Manhattan Townhouse Report [pdf]



Live At The 92Y: Making Sense of Manhattan Real Estate

August 25, 2007 | 9:56 pm | | Public |

This will be the fourth year in a row that Paul Purcell and Kathy Braddock of Braddock and Purcell have organized a panel discussion (that includes me) on the state of the Manhattan residential market at the 92nd Street Y in Manhattan.

The event has sold out for the past three years, so get your tickets early!

Jacky Teplitzky, one of the top real estate brokers at Prudential Douglas Elliman, and whom I have known for a number of years will be participating. Paul and Kathy have also invited Adam Modlin who owns a boutique real estate brokerage firm in New York. I look forward to hearing what he has to say.

The 92Y Blog is very well done and worth checking out. Its been on my blogroll for quite a while.

The event will be held on Thursday, Oct 18, 2007 at 8:00pm at the East 92nd St/Lexington Avenue location.

Click here for tickets.



[In The Media] The Real Deal Clip for 7-30-07

July 30, 2007 | 10:44 am | | TV, Videos |

The Real Deal Magazine which has experienced phenomenal growth and is a must-read reasource for the New York housing market, has made a real commitment to the videocast format and delivers new video content on their web site every week. Look for my regular new podcast feature, coming soon.

I just released my 2Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview for Prudential Douglas Elliman and this interview covers the results, with emphasis on Queens. You can download a copy of the report.

To watch the videocast.


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2Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

July 25, 2007 | 2:50 pm | | Radio |

The 2Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We created this market area study in 2006.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 2Q 2003 through 2Q 2007 [2Q 2007 – to be uploaded shortly]). I have created a series of quarterly market charts that may also be of interest.

_An excerpt_

…Both average sales price and median sales price indicators approached stabilization, after two years of decline. However, changes in price levels varied by price strata and market area. The most notable price changes occurred in a weaker North Shore market and a stronger Queens condo market. Despite stabilizing prices, the overall number of sales fell across the entire region with the North Shore market being the only market to show a gain as compared to the same period last year. As a result of diminished demand, inventory levels have continued to rise, causing other market indicators like days on market and listing discount to expand. A decline in the overall number of sales in one of the most active quarters of the year suggests that the housing market may experience continued weakness in the near future…..

Download report: 2Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]

Here’s a brief summary of the media coverage for the study. Its interesting to place the coverage side-by-side because its based on the same data.

Here’s the recap:

Queens-Long Island Home Prices Little Changed in Second Quarter [Bloomberg]
HARSH REALTY IN QUEENS. [New York Post]
LI, Queens housing sales still cool [Newsday]
LI, Queens housing sales still cool [amNew York]
Queens prices down in 2nd quarter [The Real Deal]
Queens Residential Market Drops, Except for the Pricey Stuff [Curbed]
Queens-Long Island Home Prices [Bloomberg Radio (no clip yet)]


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2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

July 8, 2007 | 7:30 pm | | Reports |

The PDF version of the 2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994.

Here is some additional information from Prudential Douglas Elliman’s CEO/President Dottie Herman covering the 2Q 07 report release. Since she purchased PDE four years ago, she has been unwavering in her support of my requirement to remain independent in the preparation of these reports (and of course, it goes without saying that I am also able to remain dull and boring).

In addition, you can see the methodology that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 1Q 89 through 2Q 2007) and view a series of quarterly market charts, most related to the current market report.

An excerpt

…The number of Manhattan apartment sales are at record levels. Listing inventory has fallen sharply from recent highs. Two of three price indicators tracked in this study set records. Days on market and listing discount indicators are contracting. In contrast, national housing statistics, while not reflective of individual markets, show just the opposite. The New York City economy continues to show improvement coming after two consecutive years of record Wall Street bonus payouts. Preliminary indicators from the financial services sector show more of the same strength bonus income in the coming year. Mortgage rates are low despite recent increases. The government is running a budget surplus, unemployment is low and the weak dollar has brought in significant foreign investment. The constant in the demand/supply equation has been new development activity, whose pace has not abated for the past three years. It contributed to the rise in inventory levels of 2005 and 2006, but the significant demand has more than offset new product added to the market in 2007. The relatively inelastic short term response to demand suggests that the high level of demand is something to focus on for the remainder of the year and through 2008.

Download report: 2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview [pdf]


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[Media Pre-Holiday BBQ Coverage] 2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview

July 3, 2007 | 2:26 pm | | Public |

My firm released the 2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview [pretty version will be posted on Thursday] that we author for Prudential Douglas Elliman today. Its about all I have done over the past week, except for the quality time spent with my new iPhone, prepping for our family’s clam bake on July 4th and riding into Manhattan in an RV with the Joe and Rudy from Sellsius, so I have been largely absent from Matrix since the middle of last week.

The numbers were released and my summary of their interpretation were provided to the media for the coverage today. The actual data and charts will be available Thursday as well.

A little over a year ago, I began posting the links to the coverage of each report to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting process.

This list of articles is presented basically when I found them. I also include some duplicate news feeds because I like to see what regions are interested in the story – I place those near the bottom because of the repetition. I’ll keep adding links through the end of the week.

The Link List

Manhattan Co-Op Prices Fall as Buyers Favor Condos [Bloomberg]
Manhattan apartments brush off U.S. housing slump [Reuters]
Co-ops Slip, but Condos Lead Rise in Manhattan Apartment Prices [NY Times]
New York home prices: No place but up [CNN/Money]
WALL ST. FUELS RUN IN APT. SALES [NY Post]
Manhattan apt. sales rise [NY Daily News]
Weak Dollar Fuels City Real Estate [NY Sun]
NYC a Bright Spot in Dismal U.S. Real Estate Market [TheStreet.com]
Manhattan Residential Market Indicates High Sales Volume, Declining Inventory, Rising Prices and Shorter Time on Market [RISMedia]
Curbed Roundtable: July State O’ the Market Report [Curbed]
Record Prices, Avoiding Co-ops in Manhattan [Gothamist]
Manhattan residential real estate market; falling inventory, rising prices and a record number of sales [Firstrung.com]
Manhattan Residential Market Indicates High Sales Volume, Declining Inventory, Rising Prices and Shorter Time on Market – Continued Strong Market Momentum against National Real Estate Trends [Digital50.com]
Manhattan apartments brush off U.S. housing slump [Reuters, India]
Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker [Seeking Alpha]
Real Estate Market Still Hot in NYC [WNYC]
Manhattan apartments brush off U.S. housing slump [Valuation Review]
Manhattan market still on the rise [Inman News]
Manhattan co-op prices fall as condos flourish [NorthJersey.com]

Radio and TV clips

[July 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV – On The Economy (Part I)
[July 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV – On The Economy (Part II)
[July 3, 2007] Bloomberg Radio

Have a great 4th of July!


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Radar Love = Radar Logic Research

April 24, 2007 | 10:06 am | | Public |

Radar Logic Incorporated and my appraisal and consulting firm Miller Samuel Inc. have entered into a joint venture named Radar Logic Research, LLC.

Radar Logic Research Press Release [pdf]
Radar Logic White Paper Here’s more technical information.

Radar Logic Incorporated, through its partner Ventana Systems, Inc. a mathematics consulting and software firm, have leveraged methodologies commonly used in the sciences, and applied it to real estate. The objective was to make sense of the national residential housing market by creating a daily housing “spot” price to be used in the trading of real estate derivatives.

The Radar Logic Daily Index is a single, statistically accurate value representing the price per square foot paid in a defined metropolitan area on any given day. Data is gathered from public source records and then translated by our proprietary algorithms into an accurate reflection of the values paid in actual arms-length real estate transactions.

First, a little history…

The name Radar Logic references modern radar, and its ability to illuminate order out of chaos.

When I met with the CEO Michael Feder not too long ago and began to grasp what he and his team had accomplished, a light bulb went on in my head (despite the usual foggy conditions) and I wanted to be a part of this effort immediately. (more on that below) The Radar Logic approach solved the glaring problems found in national market statistics, such as moving averages and omission of data types. Up until now, this has prevented the financial markets from efficiently using residential real estate as a basis of trading instruments such as derivatives in a manner similar to the futures and options contracts available in more traditional commodities.

A derivative is a financial instrument used to trade or manage the asset upon which the instrument is based. It “derives” its value from something else (another asset or instrument). Derivatives are most often used to manage risk or to take positions on future market directions. Derivatives exist for a wide range of assets, such as commodities (gold, oil, corn), stocks and bonds, and on indices, such as the Dow Jones Index®. Until now, there have been few derivatives markets for residential real estate. Radar Logic Incorporated was founded for the purpose of enabling financial derivatives based on real estate.

The residential housing market is the largest asset class in the United States. To provide some perspective, the Federal Reserve indicates that the US housing market represents about $21 trillion in value. Commercial real estate, while a large asset class, is only about 20% of that amount. Yet because the residential real estate market is made up of 124 million units worth an average of around $240,000, it is fragmented and difficult to measure.

In addition, residential real estate as an asset class, is constantly changing. It is characterized by seasonality, new development, the surge of condos in metro areas and now, the rise in foreclosures. Its always changing. The Radar Logic methodology considers all verifiable transactions in a market to arrive at a value for the day that is not a moving average.

Its really exciting, and its groundbreaking stuff, to say the least. The beauty of this approach, is that there are no hidden filters, assumptions or calculations. In other words, the market is the market.

In addition to my duties at Miller Samuel and Miller Cicero, I have become Chairman of Radar Logic Research, LLC as well as Director of Research for Radar Logic Incorporated. I am still going to be active in the operation of Miller Samuel and produce the New York area market report series for Prudential Douglas Elliman that I created and have authored since 1994, with more markets to be added. Trust me, I have simply invented more time in a day. (More on that at another time, when there is more time in the day.)

Radar Logic Research will develop and publish research products providing market commentary and analysis related to real estate values across the United States later this year for institutions as well as enterprise-specific consulting services to real estate and financial organizations, including builders, developers, brokerages, commercial lenders, REITs, and investors such as pension funds, hedge funds and insurance companies. The initial plan is to offer these services to cover 25 major metro areas, roughly 2/3 of the value of the US housing market.

More on this to come!

Ok, back to work.

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1Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

April 23, 2007 | 12:03 am | | Public |

The PDF version of the 1Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We just introduced this study series in 2006.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 2Q 2003 through 1Q 2007). I have created a series of quarterly market charts that may be of interest as well.

_An excerpt_

…Overall price indicators showed weakness this quarter particularly at the higher end of the market. Overall median sales price showed relative stability as compared to the same period last year while average sales price showed a modest decline. Inventory levels are expected to level off as seasonal demand increases the number of sales. Current inventory levels remain below those seen in the second and third quarters of last year. However, the number of sales for the quarter is the lowest seen in three years suggesting a lower intensity of sales activity this spring, even when seasonally adjusted….

Download report: 1Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]

Here’s the media coverage for the study. I think I got most of them. Normally I would have covered this the day of publication last week but if you remember, I was kind of in Seine.

Here’s the recap:

Bloomberg News
The Real Deal
New York Observer
Newsday
Crain’s New York

WPIX CW11
Bloomberg Television – In Focus

Bloomberg Radio
Bloomberg Radio


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