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Douglas Elliman

[Media Chain-Links => Post March Madness] 1Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview

April 3, 2007 | 7:17 am | | Public |

My firm released the 1Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview that we author for Prudential Douglas Elliman today. Its pretty much consumed most of my time for the past week and I am glad it is finally out. The “pretty” version should be online by the end of the day.

Note: I am equally thrilled that I won my March Madness pool last night with a Florida win.

The numbers were released and my summary of their interpretation were provided to the media for the coverage today. The actual data and charts will be available later today as well.

A year ago, I began posting the links to the coverage of each report as they are released to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting process.

This list of articles is presented basically when I found them. I also include some duplicate news feeds because I like to see what regions are interested in the story – I place those near the bottom because of the repetition. I’ll keep adding links through the end of the week.

The Link List

Market Strong for Apartments in Manhattan [NYT] April 3, 2007
Big Apple’s Housing Market Shines [TheStreet.com] April 3, 2007
Manhattan home prices on the rise – again [CNN/Money] April 3, 2007
CITY HIGH RI$E [New York Post] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Apartment Prices Increase at Slower Pace [Bloomberg] April 3, 2007
Wall St dollars help NY buck U.S. housing decline [Reuters] April 3, 2007
Buoyant Manhattan Market Bucks National Housing Trend [New York Sun] April 3, 2007
No bubble in NYC apartment prices [New York Daily News] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Market Report: Sales Soar, Prices Nudge Up [Curbed] April 3, 2007
Residential market in bloom [The Real Deal] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Apartments Keep Selling [Gothamist] April 3, 2007
Manhattan home prices still rising [MSN Money] April 3, 2007
Wall St dollars help NY buck housing decline [Yahoo! News] April 3, 2007
Manhattan’s real estate market stays hot [amNew York] April 3, 2007
Big Apple Bucking National Housing Market Trends [All Headline News] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market Surges in 2007 [Commercial Property News] April 3, 2007
Quarterly Figures Defy Dour Predictions [New York Observer] April 4, 2007

Radio and TV clips

Manhattan Residential Market [Bloomberg TV] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market Surges in 2007 [Dow Jones TV] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market [Bloomberg TV] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market [WABC-TV] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market [WNYW-TV Fox 5] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market [NY 1] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market [NY 1] April 3, 2007

[Bloomberg Radio] April 4, 2007
[Bloomberg Radio] April 3, 2007


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1997-2006 Manhattan Market Report Is Available For Download

March 20, 2007 | 7:17 am | | Reports |

The PDF version of the 1997-2006 Manhattan Market Report [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994. The report is the aggregate of the four previous quarterly reports.

More than 85,000 co-op and condo sales transactions from more than 6,400 buildings over the last ten years were analyzed. Each of the 53 different market areas was analyzed with data tables and charts as well as a summary matrix with prior year and prior decade comparisons.

I lovingly have dubbed this report “The Phone Book” for the pages and pages of “numbers” it contains. Even though the quarterly gets more coverage in the media, this report has about the same number of annual downloads as the four quarterly reports, combined.

In addition, you can see the methodology that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (1989 to 2006) and view a series of market charts.

An excerpt

… All Manhattan price indicators set records this year over the records set in the prior year. The average sales price this year was a record $1,295,445, up 6.1% from the prior year record average sales price of $1,221,265. Although the price indicators set records over the past two years, the pace of price growth has slowed considerably. The 6.1% increase in average sales price was well below the 21.6% appreciation rate seen in the prior year as well as the 18.1% appreciation rate that occurred in the year before that. The lowest annual appreciation rate of the past decade occurred in 2002 where the effects of 9/11 brought the appreciation rate down to 2.1% from 9.5% and 37.2% in the prior two years respectively.

At the end of 2006, there were 5,934 units listed for sale, down 0.5% from the prior year total of 5,964 units. The first half of the year, however was characterized by sharply increasing inventory levels, peaking in the second quarter at 7,640 units. Inventory leveled off in the third quarter and dropped back to levels seen at the end of 2005.

For the second straight year the days on market and listing indicators expanded. The increases this year as compared to the prior year were larger, returning to levels that existed before the housing boom began in the early part of this decade….

Download report: 1997-2006 Manhattan Market Report [pdf]


4Q 2006 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

February 7, 2007 | 8:20 am | | Public |

The PDF version of the 4Q 2006 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. I have been writing market reports for them since 1994. This market coverage is a relative newcomer to the series.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 2Q 2003 through 4Q 2006). I plan on creating a series of quarterly market charts like we have for Manhattan.

_An excerpt_

…Sales prices in the overall market remained relatively stable, kept in check by rising demand and declining inventory. With the cash-out phenomenon waning as existing homeowners, who were not priced at market levels allowed their listings to expire. This has helped clear clutter in the market for buyers. At the same time, sellers appear to be more negotiable this quarter as the listing discount increase at the same time the number of sales did. Lower end price points like the condo market were generally stable but there was weakness in price levels at the upper end of the market, as evidenced by the North Shore and luxury sectors, which saw lower prices at the upper strata but, interestingly, some of the highest increases in the number of sales over the past year…

Download report: 4Q 2006 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]


4Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

January 29, 2007 | 12:01 am | | Public |

The PDF version of the 4Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994. I neglected to post this on Matrix sooner.

In addition, you can see the methodology that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 1Q 89 through 4Q 2006) and view a series of quarterly market charts, many related to the current market report.

_An excerpt_

…Buyers begin to stir as sellers price prop-erties closer to market levels For the past year and a half, the Manhattan market had been characterized by a surplus of listing inventory, with a large portion of it comprised of overpriced resale properties. An abundance of new development inventory has been the focal point of the excess inventory problem. A rift between buyers and sellers emerged as buyers became more demanding about price discounts, resulting in a lower level of sales activity and expanded days on market. Many would-be purchasers moved into the rental market, not because they could not afford to purchase but because there was concern over the near term outlook of the real estate market. However, listing inventory stabilized in the third quarter and dropped sharply in the current quarter as the expiration of over priced resale listings overtook the rise in new development inventory. Record Wall Street bonuses have provided more disposable income and helped keep unemployment levels low. This has helped fuel demand for housing, the effect compounded by four consecutive years of gains because bonus recipients may or may not purchase in the same year their bonus was awarded. Election changes in the federal government last November, more realistic pricing by sellers, a drop in inventory levels as overpriced listings expired, low local unemployment, solid fiscal condition of city government, weakening US dollar, stabilizing mortgage rates and lack of a price correction in six quarters in the post housing boom era have all helped influence buyers to reconsider their position and begin to enter the purchase market again…..

Download report: 4Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [pdf]

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[Media Chain-Links Without The Snow] 4Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview

January 3, 2007 | 8:51 am | | Public |

The 4Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview that my appraisal firm, Miller Samuel, authors for Prudential Douglas Elliman, was released for publication today. In order to include the entire quarter for the study, I spent the good part of the New Years weekend while away on vacation in a Starbucks crunching and analyzing while drinking too many vanilla skim lattes. Thats why the pretty version of the report will be available in a few days rather at the point of release to the media.

The raw numbers were released and my summary of their interpretation were provided to the media for the coverage today. The actual data and charts will be available soon online. I tend focus only on the data collection, verification and analysis until the media publishes the findings.

Each quarter I place links to articles about our market report for a few days after publication for perspective (plus I am obessed with making lists) to make it easy to compare how each media outlet (big and small media, blogs) presents the exact same set of data.

This article list is presented in no particular order, basically when I found them. I also include some duplicate news feeds because I like to see what regions are interested in the story – I place those near the bottom because of the repetition. I’ll keep adding links through the end of the week.


Home Prices Fall Just a Bit; Brokers See ‘Soft Landing’ [NYT]
Manhattan real estate cools off [CNN/Money]
Real estate still strong [NY Daily News]
NYC APTS PRICED TO SELL: STUDY [NY Post]
Apartments up at least 5% in Manhattan [Newsday]
Manhattan Apartment Prices Rise 3.2%, Sidestep U.S. Declines [Bloomberg]
Reports Contradict Predictions of Apartment Market Slump [NY Sun]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [Reuters]
Brokerages Turn in Homework for the Semester [Curbed]
Brokerages: Market is stable [The Real Deal]
A Look Back in 2007! Manhattan Is Still an Islan [NYO-The Lab]
Reports show real estate slowdown [AM New York]
Average Manhattan apt: $1.2M [Metro]
Home is where B’klyn bucks are, reports show [NY Daily News]
Market for Manhattan Apts. Strong [Chicago Tribune]
Market for Manhattan apartments remained strong in 2006 [Boston Herald]
Real Estate Bubble Slowly Deflating, Not Bursting [Gothamist]
Market for Manhattan Apts. Strong [Tuscaloosa News]
Manhattan apartments go for an average $1.14-million (U.S.) [Globe and Mail, Canada]
Market for Manhattan apartments remained strong in 2006 despite national dip, analysts say [San Diego Union Tribune]
Market for Manhattan Apts. Strong [Sun-Sentinel]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [WaPo]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [MSN Money]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [KPLC-TV/Lake Charles, LA]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [Reuters Canada]
Market for Manhattan apartments remained strong in 2006 despite national dip, analysts say [IHT]
Mean Manhattan apt. price up to $1.1M [ABC]
Healthy Year for Manhattan Real Estate Market [RISMedia]
NYC Apartment Market Prices Up with Inventory Growth Dropping Sharply [Earthtimes]
NYC Apartment Market Prices Up with Inventory Growth Dropping Sharply [Yahoo Business]
Reuters Canada Business Summary [Globe and Mail]
Manhattan real estate prices still rising in Q4 [Inman – Subsc]
Manhattan real estate market remains strong [Courier News (NJ)]

Radio and TV clips

[January 8, 2007] The Real Deal
[January 7, 2007] WABC-TV
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV
[January 3, 2007] WABC-TV
[January 3, 2007] WABC-TV
[January 3, 2007] WABC-TV
[January 3, 2007] WNBC-TV
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV

[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg Radio
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg Radio
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg Radio


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Real Estate Media Lesson: Unchecked & Mistaken = Apples & Oranges

December 8, 2006 | 1:13 am | | Public |

There was an article that ran on the Bloomberg Newswire on a recently released market report by Real Estate Board of New York (REBNY) that seemingly contradicted the results in our study for the same reporting period (was released almost 5 weeks ago).

The Bloomberg feed on the article was picked up by the New York Post, The New York Daily News, The New York Sun and covered in Crain’s New York as far as I can tell. The New York Post version was linked to Curbed as well.

The Bloomberg article showed how one of the key stats in the report I prepare contradicted the same stat in the REBNY report…

The two reports supposedly showed the opposite trend in Median Sales Price.

Here’s what was presented in the Bloomberg newswire story that was picked up in the other papers:

REBNY:
Manhattan median sales price increased 6.7%.
The data source was from public record and a confidential survey from their members.

Miller Samuel/Prudential Douglas Elliman:
Manhattan median sales price decreased 4%.
The data source was from public record and collecting data from our appraisal practice.

Reality check

_Correct Stat That Should Have Been Used_
Miller Samuel/Prudential Douglas Elliman:
Manhattan median sales price increased 12.7%.

The Miller Samuel median sales price stat quoted over and over in all the articles reflected the change in median sales price as -4% compared to the prior quarter rather than the +12.7% increase over the prior year quarter like the 6.7% stat from the REBNY report. Both stats showed upward movement over the past year.

Apples to Oranges (Conclusion)

The results show a fairly wide spread albeit in the same direction. This is likely due to difference in the mix of what data was collected.

The idea that the two reports seemingly contradicted each other raised the interest level for its newsworthiness as a story, yet the key point made was in error – the two reports actually didn’t contradict.

Sigh…



Long Island 3Q 2006 Is Available for Download

December 1, 2006 | 12:31 am | | Public |

Miller Samuel has been producing real estate reports covering the Manhattan market on behalf of Prudential Douglas Elliman for more than 12 years. With a lot of great data out there, it remains a mystery to me why Long Island has not been analyzed like so many other markets in the region have. With roughly 10,000 transactions per quarter, its a substantial market area.

Beginning with the 2nd quarter of this year and now the 3rd quarter, the Long Island Market Overview (LiMO) has been created and is now on track to be released on a timely basis beginning with the 4th quarter 2006 version shortly after the quarter ends.

but I digress…

The LiMO report covers the Queens, Nassau, Suffolk, North Shore, Luxury (top 10%) and Condo markets. The Hamptons and the North Fork are unique enough to warrant a separate report, which is currently in development. Other markets are slated to follow.

excerpt

…The current quarter provided a marked change from the prior quarter results. The average sales price and median sales price showed modest gains, the number of sales increased after a year of steady activity, listing inventory appears to have leveled off, the time it takes to sell a residential property has remained consistent, and sellers are slightly more negotiable. Sellers appear to be more in tune with market conditions, which would explain the combination of larger listing discounts and rising prices, the increase in the number of sales, and stabilizing inventory. Since the seasonal expectations of the next quarter are defined by lower number of sales and weaker price levels, the first quarter of next year will provide a better indicator as to whether the current quarter was an anomaly or the beginning of a new market trend of listing stabilization…

Download the 3Q 2006 Long Island Market Overview.

Be notified by email when new reports are released.


3Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

October 24, 2006 | 12:01 am | | Public |

The PDF version of the 3Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994. The delay in getting this pretty version ready was my fault this quarter…sorry.

In addition, you can see the methodology that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 1Q 89 through 3Q 2006) and view a series of market charts, many related to the current market report.

_An excerpt_

…Prices are off in the current quarter from record levels set in the prior quarter but remain above levels seen in the prior year quarter. Overall inventory has stabilized for the first time since the end of 2004 but that appears to be due more to the offsetting decline in co-op re-sale inventory and increase in condo inventory where more than 60% of the growth is attributable to new development. Fixed and adjustable rate mortgage rates fell over the quarter but that did not stimulate additional demand. There seems to be plenty of buyers out there as lenders report rising numbers of pre-qualified buyers. Other factors such as stable local economic conditions, including an optimistic Wall Street bonus outlook, reasonable employment and payroll levels, fiscal austerity by local government and currency exchange rates encouraging foreign investment added to the stability of the market. Nevertheless, these conditions have not convinced would-be buyers to make a purchase decision as evidenced by weaker sales and increased rental activity….

Download report: 3Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [pdf]

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Real Estate Next: Long Island Real Estate Conference: October 19th

October 13, 2006 | 9:12 pm | | Public |

A new real estate conference is being offered for the Long Island market on October 19th. Here’s the announcement:

Click here for registration [$225]

A new, one-day real estate conference called “Real Estate Next: Key Trends in Residential Real Estate and What You Need to Know About the Changing Market on Long Island” is set to take place on Oct. 19, 2006 at the Long Island Marriott Hotel & Conference Center in Uniondale, N.Y.

Ron Roel, an accomplished former Deputy National Editor and Deputy Business Editor of Newsday is one of the conference organizers, invited me to participate in the conference. I am really looking forward to it.

I get to be a moderator for the opening morning session and on the panel for the lunch session.

_9:00 a.m.-9:50 a.m._
Opening Panel: Suburbia is Dead! Long Live Suburbia! Are Long Islanders Seeking a More Urban Lifestyle—and What Does That Mean for the Housing Market?
Moderator: Jonathan Miller, President, Miller Samuel
Panelists: Chris Jones, Vice President, Regional Plan Association
James Morgo, Suffolk County Commissioner, Economic Development and Workforce Housing
Ron Stein, President, Vision Long Island
Geri Solomon, Assistant Dean, Long Island Studies Institute, Hofstra University
John Venditto, Supervisor, Town of Oyster Bay

_Noon-2:00 p.m._
Lunch and Panel Discussion: Beyond the Bubble: Where is the Regional Housing Economy Headed Next Year?
Moderator: Ron Roel, Real Estate Next
Panelists: Jonathan Miller, President, Miller Samuel
Dottie Herman, CEO, Prudential Douglas Elliman
Robert Campbell, Professor of Real Estate and Finance, Hofstra University
Henry Weber, President, RE/MAX of New York
John Cameron, Managing Partner, Cameron Engineering
Dr. Thomas Conoscenti, Urban Regional Economist, New York University


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Live At The 92Y: Making Sense of Manhattan Real Estate

October 6, 2006 | 12:01 am | | Public |

For each of the last two years, Paul Purcell and Kathy Braddock of Braddock and Purcell have organized a panel discussion on the state of the Manhattan residential market at the 92nd Street Y in Manhattan.

Pamela Liebman, CEO of the Corcoran Group, Alan Rogers, former Chairmer Chairman of Douglas Elliman and moi, moderated by Paul. We have lively discussions with very good chemistry. I always learn something from them.

This year the event was again slated for all three of us, but Alan, with a last minute conflict, is being replaced by a mystery guest. It should be fun. Hope to see you there.

The event will be held on Thursday, Oct 12, 2006 at 8:00pm. Click here for tickets.

BTW, the 92nd St Y blog is a pretty cool resource and well-written.


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[Media Chain-Links, Fenced In] 3Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview

October 4, 2006 | 11:13 am | | Public |

The 3Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview that my appraisal firm, Miller Samuel, authors for Prudential Douglas Elliman, was released for publication today. The raw numbers were released and a summary of their interpretation were provided to the media. The pretty report will be available for download later this week or early next week. I wait until the end of the quarter before I start working on it so there is not enough time to get it together before publication of the results. This quarter ended last Saturday so it made for a long weekend.

The actual data and charts will be available soon. The actual report pdf will be available next week.

For perspective, every quarter I place links to articles about the report for a few days after publication to make it easy to compare how each media outlet (big and small media, blogs) presents the exact same set of data.

This article list is presented in no particular order, basically when I found them. I include some duplicate news feeds because I like to see what regions are interested in the story.


Manhattan real estate finally starts to cool [CNN/Money]
Buying in Manhattan? Apartment Prices Steady [New York Times]
Manhattan apartment prices slip in latest quarter [New York Daily News]
Manhattan apartments selling slower [Newsday]
Manhattan apartment market seen in soft landing [Reuters]
Manhattan Co-Op Apartment Prices Dip 16% as Buyers Favor Condos [Bloomberg (no link yet)]
Manhattan Housing Stays Stable [TheStreet.com]
Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [Reuters]
Jonathan Miller On Summer ’06: New York Realty Isn’t So Bad [NYO The Real Estate]
Prices down, sales up in Manhattan housing market; co-op prices slump [The Real Deal]
As Dow Hits Record High, Homes Falter [NY Sun]
N.Y. CRA$H PADS [NY Post]
Manhattan real estate market slows down [Inman]
DownMarket Reports: Choose Your Own Adventure! [Curbed]
Sector Snap: Manhattan Apartment REITs [AP] Highlights from the Prudential Douglas Elliman Third Quarter Overview [True Gotham]
Manhattan residential real estate market cools [Valuation Review]

Here are a handful of tv spots as well.


[WABC]

[Bloomberg TV]

[WCBS]

[WCBS]


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New Brokerage Models Flourish (NAR Needs Redfin’s PR Firm)

September 5, 2006 | 12:01 am | | Radio |

Damon Darlin’s The Last Stand of the 6-Percenters? [NYT] was a really great overview of new brokerage services that are being offered. The article was very informative. However, after reading it, the article made me wonder who on earth would ever use a traditional broker again? Its not what I think the intention of the piece was.

New technology and new business models were pitted against longstanding tradition and a proven track record. There was a great phrase in the article referring to the difficulty of innovation in the real estate brokerage industry:

It’s a thousand tiny shackles on innovation.

A valid point. Innovation can ruffle feathers.

Well, rather than the idea that full service brokers are obsolete, I think the takeaway should be that there is room for both the old and the new. Like Dottie Herman, CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman (the firm for whom I author their market reports for) said at Inman San Francisco: Technology won’t replace agents, agents with technology will replace agents [RCG]. Exactly.

The irony in all this is the fact that the housing boom coincided with new venture capital monies which provided the opportunity for so many real estate start-ups to in fact, start-up. In fact, I see this as more of a dotcom real estate boom, with so many legitimate business models, rather than most of the silliness we saw in the previous dotcom boom, where thoughts of actually turning a profit would be figured out later.

Some of these new real estate technology sites will fail as the housing markets cool or their idea doesn’t catch on, while others will survive and thrive. Change can be good but its kind of hard when the system in place has been around for a long time.

I find that one of the weaker arguments to the new real estate models has been the idea of cost savings. Despite the near monopoly of listings through traditional MLS systems, there is the assumption that its an even playing field. In other words, users of these discount brokers assume that the property gets exposed equally whether its a Foxtons listing (remember Your Homes Direct?), a Redfin listing or a full service listing, when in fact, I would speculate that it does not.

More eyeballs on a property, especially broker eyeballs, yield a higher chance for a higher price or simply a sale. In other words, a seller may be saving costs, but they could be working off a lower base (sales price) number because of the lower exposure. The cost savings seems to be more of a potential future benefit than at present and its not really comparing apples with apples (in theory it is, but not in practice). The MLS system is proprietary.

And what is it with NAR and public relations? How can the NAR stir such ill will on a consistent basis? I continue to be amazed by their complacency and their disconnect with the public as an organization. Its tough to accept their word as gospel anymore. Even their current radio and TV ads about code of ethics seems to be too little too late. Its simply not fair to most realtors who are nice normal people and not the stereotype the profession has gained a rep for in recent years.

As a result, if you want to create a new real estate brokerage business model, now seems to be as good a time as ever.


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