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Douglas Elliman

[In The Media] The Real Deal Clip for 7-30-07

July 30, 2007 | 10:44 am | | TV, Videos |

The Real Deal Magazine which has experienced phenomenal growth and is a must-read reasource for the New York housing market, has made a real commitment to the videocast format and delivers new video content on their web site every week. Look for my regular new podcast feature, coming soon.

I just released my 2Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview for Prudential Douglas Elliman and this interview covers the results, with emphasis on Queens. You can download a copy of the report.

To watch the videocast.


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2Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

July 25, 2007 | 2:50 pm | | Radio |

The 2Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We created this market area study in 2006.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 2Q 2003 through 2Q 2007 [2Q 2007 – to be uploaded shortly]). I have created a series of quarterly market charts that may also be of interest.

_An excerpt_

…Both average sales price and median sales price indicators approached stabilization, after two years of decline. However, changes in price levels varied by price strata and market area. The most notable price changes occurred in a weaker North Shore market and a stronger Queens condo market. Despite stabilizing prices, the overall number of sales fell across the entire region with the North Shore market being the only market to show a gain as compared to the same period last year. As a result of diminished demand, inventory levels have continued to rise, causing other market indicators like days on market and listing discount to expand. A decline in the overall number of sales in one of the most active quarters of the year suggests that the housing market may experience continued weakness in the near future…..

Download report: 2Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]

Here’s a brief summary of the media coverage for the study. Its interesting to place the coverage side-by-side because its based on the same data.

Here’s the recap:

Queens-Long Island Home Prices Little Changed in Second Quarter [Bloomberg]
HARSH REALTY IN QUEENS. [New York Post]
LI, Queens housing sales still cool [Newsday]
LI, Queens housing sales still cool [amNew York]
Queens prices down in 2nd quarter [The Real Deal]
Queens Residential Market Drops, Except for the Pricey Stuff [Curbed]
Queens-Long Island Home Prices [Bloomberg Radio (no clip yet)]


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2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

July 8, 2007 | 7:30 pm | | Reports |

The PDF version of the 2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994.

Here is some additional information from Prudential Douglas Elliman’s CEO/President Dottie Herman covering the 2Q 07 report release. Since she purchased PDE four years ago, she has been unwavering in her support of my requirement to remain independent in the preparation of these reports (and of course, it goes without saying that I am also able to remain dull and boring).

In addition, you can see the methodology that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 1Q 89 through 2Q 2007) and view a series of quarterly market charts, most related to the current market report.

An excerpt

…The number of Manhattan apartment sales are at record levels. Listing inventory has fallen sharply from recent highs. Two of three price indicators tracked in this study set records. Days on market and listing discount indicators are contracting. In contrast, national housing statistics, while not reflective of individual markets, show just the opposite. The New York City economy continues to show improvement coming after two consecutive years of record Wall Street bonus payouts. Preliminary indicators from the financial services sector show more of the same strength bonus income in the coming year. Mortgage rates are low despite recent increases. The government is running a budget surplus, unemployment is low and the weak dollar has brought in significant foreign investment. The constant in the demand/supply equation has been new development activity, whose pace has not abated for the past three years. It contributed to the rise in inventory levels of 2005 and 2006, but the significant demand has more than offset new product added to the market in 2007. The relatively inelastic short term response to demand suggests that the high level of demand is something to focus on for the remainder of the year and through 2008.

Download report: 2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview [pdf]


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[Media Pre-Holiday BBQ Coverage] 2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview

July 3, 2007 | 2:26 pm | | Public |

My firm released the 2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview [pretty version will be posted on Thursday] that we author for Prudential Douglas Elliman today. Its about all I have done over the past week, except for the quality time spent with my new iPhone, prepping for our family’s clam bake on July 4th and riding into Manhattan in an RV with the Joe and Rudy from Sellsius, so I have been largely absent from Matrix since the middle of last week.

The numbers were released and my summary of their interpretation were provided to the media for the coverage today. The actual data and charts will be available Thursday as well.

A little over a year ago, I began posting the links to the coverage of each report to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting process.

This list of articles is presented basically when I found them. I also include some duplicate news feeds because I like to see what regions are interested in the story – I place those near the bottom because of the repetition. I’ll keep adding links through the end of the week.

The Link List

Manhattan Co-Op Prices Fall as Buyers Favor Condos [Bloomberg]
Manhattan apartments brush off U.S. housing slump [Reuters]
Co-ops Slip, but Condos Lead Rise in Manhattan Apartment Prices [NY Times]
New York home prices: No place but up [CNN/Money]
WALL ST. FUELS RUN IN APT. SALES [NY Post]
Manhattan apt. sales rise [NY Daily News]
Weak Dollar Fuels City Real Estate [NY Sun]
NYC a Bright Spot in Dismal U.S. Real Estate Market [TheStreet.com]
Manhattan Residential Market Indicates High Sales Volume, Declining Inventory, Rising Prices and Shorter Time on Market [RISMedia]
Curbed Roundtable: July State O’ the Market Report [Curbed]
Record Prices, Avoiding Co-ops in Manhattan [Gothamist]
Manhattan residential real estate market; falling inventory, rising prices and a record number of sales [Firstrung.com]
Manhattan Residential Market Indicates High Sales Volume, Declining Inventory, Rising Prices and Shorter Time on Market – Continued Strong Market Momentum against National Real Estate Trends [Digital50.com]
Manhattan apartments brush off U.S. housing slump [Reuters, India]
Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker [Seeking Alpha]
Real Estate Market Still Hot in NYC [WNYC]
Manhattan apartments brush off U.S. housing slump [Valuation Review]
Manhattan market still on the rise [Inman News]
Manhattan co-op prices fall as condos flourish [NorthJersey.com]

Radio and TV clips

[July 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV – On The Economy (Part I)
[July 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV – On The Economy (Part II)
[July 3, 2007] Bloomberg Radio

Have a great 4th of July!


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Radar Love = Radar Logic Research

April 24, 2007 | 10:06 am | | Public |

Radar Logic Incorporated and my appraisal and consulting firm Miller Samuel Inc. have entered into a joint venture named Radar Logic Research, LLC.

Radar Logic Research Press Release [pdf]
Radar Logic White Paper Here’s more technical information.

Radar Logic Incorporated, through its partner Ventana Systems, Inc. a mathematics consulting and software firm, have leveraged methodologies commonly used in the sciences, and applied it to real estate. The objective was to make sense of the national residential housing market by creating a daily housing “spot” price to be used in the trading of real estate derivatives.

The Radar Logic Daily Index is a single, statistically accurate value representing the price per square foot paid in a defined metropolitan area on any given day. Data is gathered from public source records and then translated by our proprietary algorithms into an accurate reflection of the values paid in actual arms-length real estate transactions.

First, a little history…

The name Radar Logic references modern radar, and its ability to illuminate order out of chaos.

When I met with the CEO Michael Feder not too long ago and began to grasp what he and his team had accomplished, a light bulb went on in my head (despite the usual foggy conditions) and I wanted to be a part of this effort immediately. (more on that below) The Radar Logic approach solved the glaring problems found in national market statistics, such as moving averages and omission of data types. Up until now, this has prevented the financial markets from efficiently using residential real estate as a basis of trading instruments such as derivatives in a manner similar to the futures and options contracts available in more traditional commodities.

A derivative is a financial instrument used to trade or manage the asset upon which the instrument is based. It “derives” its value from something else (another asset or instrument). Derivatives are most often used to manage risk or to take positions on future market directions. Derivatives exist for a wide range of assets, such as commodities (gold, oil, corn), stocks and bonds, and on indices, such as the Dow Jones Index®. Until now, there have been few derivatives markets for residential real estate. Radar Logic Incorporated was founded for the purpose of enabling financial derivatives based on real estate.

The residential housing market is the largest asset class in the United States. To provide some perspective, the Federal Reserve indicates that the US housing market represents about $21 trillion in value. Commercial real estate, while a large asset class, is only about 20% of that amount. Yet because the residential real estate market is made up of 124 million units worth an average of around $240,000, it is fragmented and difficult to measure.

In addition, residential real estate as an asset class, is constantly changing. It is characterized by seasonality, new development, the surge of condos in metro areas and now, the rise in foreclosures. Its always changing. The Radar Logic methodology considers all verifiable transactions in a market to arrive at a value for the day that is not a moving average.

Its really exciting, and its groundbreaking stuff, to say the least. The beauty of this approach, is that there are no hidden filters, assumptions or calculations. In other words, the market is the market.

In addition to my duties at Miller Samuel and Miller Cicero, I have become Chairman of Radar Logic Research, LLC as well as Director of Research for Radar Logic Incorporated. I am still going to be active in the operation of Miller Samuel and produce the New York area market report series for Prudential Douglas Elliman that I created and have authored since 1994, with more markets to be added. Trust me, I have simply invented more time in a day. (More on that at another time, when there is more time in the day.)

Radar Logic Research will develop and publish research products providing market commentary and analysis related to real estate values across the United States later this year for institutions as well as enterprise-specific consulting services to real estate and financial organizations, including builders, developers, brokerages, commercial lenders, REITs, and investors such as pension funds, hedge funds and insurance companies. The initial plan is to offer these services to cover 25 major metro areas, roughly 2/3 of the value of the US housing market.

More on this to come!

Ok, back to work.

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1Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

April 23, 2007 | 12:03 am | | Public |

The PDF version of the 1Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We just introduced this study series in 2006.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 2Q 2003 through 1Q 2007). I have created a series of quarterly market charts that may be of interest as well.

_An excerpt_

…Overall price indicators showed weakness this quarter particularly at the higher end of the market. Overall median sales price showed relative stability as compared to the same period last year while average sales price showed a modest decline. Inventory levels are expected to level off as seasonal demand increases the number of sales. Current inventory levels remain below those seen in the second and third quarters of last year. However, the number of sales for the quarter is the lowest seen in three years suggesting a lower intensity of sales activity this spring, even when seasonally adjusted….

Download report: 1Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]

Here’s the media coverage for the study. I think I got most of them. Normally I would have covered this the day of publication last week but if you remember, I was kind of in Seine.

Here’s the recap:

Bloomberg News
The Real Deal
New York Observer
Newsday
Crain’s New York

WPIX CW11
Bloomberg Television – In Focus

Bloomberg Radio
Bloomberg Radio


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[Media Chain-Links => Post March Madness] 1Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview

April 3, 2007 | 7:17 am | | Public |

My firm released the 1Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview that we author for Prudential Douglas Elliman today. Its pretty much consumed most of my time for the past week and I am glad it is finally out. The “pretty” version should be online by the end of the day.

Note: I am equally thrilled that I won my March Madness pool last night with a Florida win.

The numbers were released and my summary of their interpretation were provided to the media for the coverage today. The actual data and charts will be available later today as well.

A year ago, I began posting the links to the coverage of each report as they are released to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting process.

This list of articles is presented basically when I found them. I also include some duplicate news feeds because I like to see what regions are interested in the story – I place those near the bottom because of the repetition. I’ll keep adding links through the end of the week.

The Link List

Market Strong for Apartments in Manhattan [NYT] April 3, 2007
Big Apple’s Housing Market Shines [TheStreet.com] April 3, 2007
Manhattan home prices on the rise – again [CNN/Money] April 3, 2007
CITY HIGH RI$E [New York Post] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Apartment Prices Increase at Slower Pace [Bloomberg] April 3, 2007
Wall St dollars help NY buck U.S. housing decline [Reuters] April 3, 2007
Buoyant Manhattan Market Bucks National Housing Trend [New York Sun] April 3, 2007
No bubble in NYC apartment prices [New York Daily News] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Market Report: Sales Soar, Prices Nudge Up [Curbed] April 3, 2007
Residential market in bloom [The Real Deal] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Apartments Keep Selling [Gothamist] April 3, 2007
Manhattan home prices still rising [MSN Money] April 3, 2007
Wall St dollars help NY buck housing decline [Yahoo! News] April 3, 2007
Manhattan’s real estate market stays hot [amNew York] April 3, 2007
Big Apple Bucking National Housing Market Trends [All Headline News] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market Surges in 2007 [Commercial Property News] April 3, 2007
Quarterly Figures Defy Dour Predictions [New York Observer] April 4, 2007

Radio and TV clips

Manhattan Residential Market [Bloomberg TV] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market Surges in 2007 [Dow Jones TV] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market [Bloomberg TV] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market [WABC-TV] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market [WNYW-TV Fox 5] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market [NY 1] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market [NY 1] April 3, 2007

[Bloomberg Radio] April 4, 2007
[Bloomberg Radio] April 3, 2007


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1997-2006 Manhattan Market Report Is Available For Download

March 20, 2007 | 7:17 am | | Reports |

The PDF version of the 1997-2006 Manhattan Market Report [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994. The report is the aggregate of the four previous quarterly reports.

More than 85,000 co-op and condo sales transactions from more than 6,400 buildings over the last ten years were analyzed. Each of the 53 different market areas was analyzed with data tables and charts as well as a summary matrix with prior year and prior decade comparisons.

I lovingly have dubbed this report “The Phone Book” for the pages and pages of “numbers” it contains. Even though the quarterly gets more coverage in the media, this report has about the same number of annual downloads as the four quarterly reports, combined.

In addition, you can see the [methodology]) that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (1989 to 2006) and view a series of market charts.

An excerpt

… All Manhattan price indicators set records this year over the records set in the prior year. The average sales price this year was a record $1,295,445, up 6.1% from the prior year record average sales price of $1,221,265. Although the price indicators set records over the past two years, the pace of price growth has slowed considerably. The 6.1% increase in average sales price was well below the 21.6% appreciation rate seen in the prior year as well as the 18.1% appreciation rate that occurred in the year before that. The lowest annual appreciation rate of the past decade occurred in 2002 where the effects of 9/11 brought the appreciation rate down to 2.1% from 9.5% and 37.2% in the prior two years respectively.

At the end of 2006, there were 5,934 units listed for sale, down 0.5% from the prior year total of 5,964 units. The first half of the year, however was characterized by sharply increasing inventory levels, peaking in the second quarter at 7,640 units. Inventory leveled off in the third quarter and dropped back to levels seen at the end of 2005.

For the second straight year the days on market and listing indicators expanded. The increases this year as compared to the prior year were larger, returning to levels that existed before the housing boom began in the early part of this decade….

Download report: 1997-2006 Manhattan Market Report [pdf]


4Q 2006 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

February 7, 2007 | 8:20 am | | Public |

The PDF version of the 4Q 2006 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. I have been writing market reports for them since 1994. This market coverage is a relative newcomer to the series.

You can see the [methodology]) that went into the report.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 2Q 2003 through 4Q 2006). I plan on creating a series of quarterly market charts like we have for Manhattan.

_An excerpt_

…Sales prices in the overall market remained relatively stable, kept in check by rising demand and declining inventory. With the cash-out phenomenon waning as existing homeowners, who were not priced at market levels allowed their listings to expire. This has helped clear clutter in the market for buyers. At the same time, sellers appear to be more negotiable this quarter as the listing discount increase at the same time the number of sales did. Lower end price points like the condo market were generally stable but there was weakness in price levels at the upper end of the market, as evidenced by the North Shore and luxury sectors, which saw lower prices at the upper strata but, interestingly, some of the highest increases in the number of sales over the past year…

Download report: 4Q 2006 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]


4Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

January 29, 2007 | 12:01 am | | Public |

The PDF version of the 4Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994. I neglected to post this on Matrix sooner.

In addition, you can see the [methodology]) that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 1Q 89 through 4Q 2006) and view a series of quarterly market charts, many related to the current market report.

_An excerpt_

…Buyers begin to stir as sellers price prop-erties closer to market levels For the past year and a half, the Manhattan market had been characterized by a surplus of listing inventory, with a large portion of it comprised of overpriced resale properties. An abundance of new development inventory has been the focal point of the excess inventory problem. A rift between buyers and sellers emerged as buyers became more demanding about price discounts, resulting in a lower level of sales activity and expanded days on market. Many would-be purchasers moved into the rental market, not because they could not afford to purchase but because there was concern over the near term outlook of the real estate market. However, listing inventory stabilized in the third quarter and dropped sharply in the current quarter as the expiration of over priced resale listings overtook the rise in new development inventory. Record Wall Street bonuses have provided more disposable income and helped keep unemployment levels low. This has helped fuel demand for housing, the effect compounded by four consecutive years of gains because bonus recipients may or may not purchase in the same year their bonus was awarded. Election changes in the federal government last November, more realistic pricing by sellers, a drop in inventory levels as overpriced listings expired, low local unemployment, solid fiscal condition of city government, weakening US dollar, stabilizing mortgage rates and lack of a price correction in six quarters in the post housing boom era have all helped influence buyers to reconsider their position and begin to enter the purchase market again…..

Download report: 4Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [pdf]

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[Media Chain-Links Without The Snow] 4Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview

January 3, 2007 | 8:51 am | | Public |

The 4Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview that my appraisal firm, Miller Samuel, authors for Prudential Douglas Elliman, was released for publication today. In order to include the entire quarter for the study, I spent the good part of the New Years weekend while away on vacation in a Starbucks crunching and analyzing while drinking too many vanilla skim lattes. Thats why the pretty version of the report will be available in a few days rather at the point of release to the media.

The raw numbers were released and my summary of their interpretation were provided to the media for the coverage today. The actual data and charts will be available soon online. I tend focus only on the data collection, verification and analysis until the media publishes the findings.

Each quarter I place links to articles about our market report for a few days after publication for perspective (plus I am obessed with making lists) to make it easy to compare how each media outlet (big and small media, blogs) presents the exact same set of data.

This article list is presented in no particular order, basically when I found them. I also include some duplicate news feeds because I like to see what regions are interested in the story – I place those near the bottom because of the repetition. I’ll keep adding links through the end of the week.


Home Prices Fall Just a Bit; Brokers See ‘Soft Landing’ [NYT]
Manhattan real estate cools off [CNN/Money]
Real estate still strong [NY Daily News]
NYC APTS PRICED TO SELL: STUDY [NY Post]
Apartments up at least 5% in Manhattan [Newsday]
Manhattan Apartment Prices Rise 3.2%, Sidestep U.S. Declines [Bloomberg]
Reports Contradict Predictions of Apartment Market Slump [NY Sun]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [Reuters]
Brokerages Turn in Homework for the Semester [Curbed]
Brokerages: Market is stable [The Real Deal]
A Look Back in 2007! Manhattan Is Still an Islan [NYO-The Lab]
Reports show real estate slowdown [AM New York]
Average Manhattan apt: $1.2M [Metro]
Home is where B’klyn bucks are, reports show [NY Daily News]
Market for Manhattan Apts. Strong [Chicago Tribune]
Market for Manhattan apartments remained strong in 2006 [Boston Herald]
Real Estate Bubble Slowly Deflating, Not Bursting [Gothamist]
Market for Manhattan Apts. Strong [Tuscaloosa News]
Manhattan apartments go for an average $1.14-million (U.S.) [Globe and Mail, Canada]
Market for Manhattan apartments remained strong in 2006 despite national dip, analysts say [San Diego Union Tribune]
Market for Manhattan Apts. Strong [Sun-Sentinel]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [WaPo]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [MSN Money]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [KPLC-TV/Lake Charles, LA]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [Reuters Canada]
Market for Manhattan apartments remained strong in 2006 despite national dip, analysts say [IHT]
Mean Manhattan apt. price up to $1.1M [ABC]
Healthy Year for Manhattan Real Estate Market [RISMedia]
NYC Apartment Market Prices Up with Inventory Growth Dropping Sharply [Earthtimes]
NYC Apartment Market Prices Up with Inventory Growth Dropping Sharply [Yahoo Business]
Reuters Canada Business Summary [Globe and Mail]
Manhattan real estate prices still rising in Q4 [Inman – Subsc]
Manhattan real estate market remains strong [Courier News (NJ)]

Radio and TV clips

[January 8, 2007] The Real Deal
[January 7, 2007] WABC-TV
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV
[January 3, 2007] WABC-TV
[January 3, 2007] WABC-TV
[January 3, 2007] WABC-TV
[January 3, 2007] WNBC-TV
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV

[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg Radio
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg Radio
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg Radio


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Real Estate Media Lesson: Unchecked & Mistaken = Apples & Oranges

December 8, 2006 | 1:13 am | | Public |

There was an article that ran on the Bloomberg Newswire on a recently released market report by Real Estate Board of New York (REBNY) that seemingly contradicted the results in our study for the same reporting period (was released almost 5 weeks ago).

The Bloomberg feed on the article was picked up by the New York Post, The New York Daily News, The New York Sun and covered in Crain’s New York as far as I can tell. The New York Post version was linked to Curbed as well.

The Bloomberg article showed how one of the key stats in the report I prepare contradicted the same stat in the REBNY report…

The two reports supposedly showed the opposite trend in Median Sales Price.

Here’s what was presented in the Bloomberg newswire story that was picked up in the other papers:

REBNY:
Manhattan median sales price increased 6.7%.
The data source was from public record and a confidential survey from their members.

Miller Samuel/Prudential Douglas Elliman:
Manhattan median sales price decreased 4%.
The data source was from public record and collecting data from our appraisal practice.

Reality check

_Correct Stat That Should Have Been Used_
Miller Samuel/Prudential Douglas Elliman:
Manhattan median sales price increased 12.7%.

The Miller Samuel median sales price stat quoted over and over in all the articles reflected the change in median sales price as -4% compared to the prior quarter rather than the +12.7% increase over the prior year quarter like the 6.7% stat from the REBNY report. Both stats showed upward movement over the past year.

Apples to Oranges (Conclusion)

The results show a fairly wide spread albeit in the same direction. This is likely due to difference in the mix of what data was collected.

The idea that the two reports seemingly contradicted each other raised the interest level for its newsworthiness as a story, yet the key point made was in error – the two reports actually didn’t contradict.

Sigh…


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