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Douglas Elliman

[Public Speaking] Miami Condo Market Symposium 10-29-13

October 27, 2013 | 9:32 pm | | Public |

I’m headed to Miami this week to speak at the Urban Land Institute’s Miami Condo Market Symposium: Embracing Boom & Bust Cycles. Based on the speaker list, it promises to be an informative event.


[click graphic to go to web site]


3Q 2013 Market Report Gauntlet Comes to a Close

October 26, 2013 | 5:15 pm | | Reports |

This week marked the end of what I call the “quarterly gauntlet” market report releases that I author for Douglas Elliman. If you’re interested, we’ve analyzed a bunch of markets:

NYC Metro Area
Manhattan Sales
Manhattan & Brooklyn Rentals
Brooklyn Sales
Queens Sales
Westchester/Putnam Sales
Long Island Sales
Hamptons Sales
North Fork Sales

South Florida
Miami Sales
Boca Raton Sales
Fort Lauderdale Sales
Palm Beach Sales

I’ve been writing this expanding report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994. You can also build custom data tables on information included in the reports using our aggregate database and a growing library of market charts.


[Long List of Records] 3Q 2013 Manhattan Sales Report

October 4, 2013 | 10:32 am | | Reports |

We published our report on Manhattan market sales for 3Q 2013 this week.   I’ve been writing this series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

My Take

  • Inventory continues to challenge the market, falling to the lowest level since we began tracking it more than 13 years ago.
  • Sales surged as fence-sitters rushed in to buy before mortgage rates rose any further, causing the largest market share of co-op sales (62%) in 9-years.
  • Sales rose to second highest level in 24 years, the highest since 2007.
  • While overall median sales price slipped 2%, it was only due to a shift in mix to smaller sales. Both co-op and condo median sales prices increased year-over-year.
  • The 1-bedroom market share of sales reached a 15-year high.
  • The combination of surging sales and falling inventory resulted in fastest absorption rate (market pace) on record at 3.6 months.
  • The market share of new development closings fell to decade low of 6.2% as finished product continues to be scarce, but the rise in new development activity should reverse this trend in 2014.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

The third quarter was a period of records and near records in the Manhattan residential apartment market. There were 3,837 sales in the third quarter, 30% higher than the prior year quarter and the second highest total in more than 24 years. The sharp gains in the number of sales likely reflects a release of pent-up demand accumulated over the past several years combined with the concern over rising mortgage rates. The highest level of sales reached was 3,939 in the second quarter of 2007, just over a year before the Lehman tipping point and onset of the global credit crunch in late 2008. Listing inventory also reached a new record by falling 21.9% to 4,567, the lowest level reached since this metric was tracked in 2000…


The charts will be updated shortly but the data tables are already updated to include 3Q 2013.

Here is some of the press coverage for the report.


The Elliman Report: 3Q 2013 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2013 Manhattan Sales [Douglas Elliman]

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[Upside] 8-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rental Report

September 12, 2013 | 11:28 am | | Charts |

Douglas Elliman just published their Manhattan/Brooklyn rental report. This monthly report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994. We discontinued the quarterly rental report series but still present the information in our aggregate database.

MANHATTAN

  • Rising interest rates, an improving economy and tight credit are placing upward pressure on rental prices.
  • Rents continued to show modest gains.
  • 26th consecutive month without a year-over-year decline in median rent.
  • Nominal use of concessions by landlords remain in place.
  • Rise in number of new rentals reflect resistance to rising rents at time of renewal.
  • Vacancy rate edged up from year ago levels as this year’s spring market demand pushed later into summer than last year.

BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest Regions]

  • Rents continue to rise faster in Brooklyn than Manhattan.
  • Highest median rental price in over five years.
  • After a brief respite in early summer, renewed resistance to rising rents as evidenced by jump in the number of new rentals.
  • Days on market and listing discount fell.
  • 2-bedrooms showed biggest year-over-year gain of all size categories.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

MANHATTAN The Manhattan median rental price increased by 1.8% to $3,150 from the same month last year. The last time this metric posted a decline was in June 2011, resulting in an unprecedented 26-month run. The average rental price increased 7.8% to $3,860 over the same period. Concessions from landlords continue to be rare with only 2.5% of all new rentals having some form of rewards, averaging the equivalent of 1 month of free rent…

BROOKLYN All rental price indicators showed year-over-year gains. Median rental price increased by 4.6% to $2,850 from the same month last year, reaching record highs in over 5-year period. The year-over-year average gain of this price metric during this period was at 3.4%. Average rental price and average rental price per square foot both increased 3.6% and 6.9% respectively from the same period last year…




The Elliman Report: 8-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 8-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Douglas Elliman]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Brooklyn Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Quarterly) [Miller Samuel]


[Three Cents Worth Miami #243] Midyear Snapshot On Improving Magic City Housing Market

August 15, 2013 | 4:11 pm | | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed Miami, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the Magic City. And I’m simply here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedMiami:

This week I thought I’d give a quick look at the last 18 months – the period where Miami transitioned its US image from poster child for distressed real estate back to a luxury real estate location. If these are thrown into one bucket, the drop in lower priced distressed activity unreasonable skews the overall market higher so I thought it would be good to break out the market like we do in the market reports we prepare for Douglas Elliman…

[click to expand chart]

 


My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Midyear Snapshot On Improving Magic City Housing Market [Curbed]

Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Hamptons

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Our Rental Market Report Makes Cover of New York Post

August 13, 2013 | 10:23 am | |

I thought the dog days of August would result in little interest in the state of the NYC rental market. With the release of July Manhattan/Brooklyn report we prepare for Douglas Elliman last Thursday, I was clearly wrong.

In addition to the coverage of the report on Thursday, a New York Post cover page story screamed about the high cost of Brooklyn rentals using our research the next day (Friday). Of course we had to share the page evenly with the Facebook Killer, but hey, it’s the New York Post we all love.

Does any other US housing market rival New Yorker’s infatuation with real estate?

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[Narrowing the Gap] 7-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rental Report

August 8, 2013 | 2:30 pm | | Reports |

Douglas Elliman just published their Manhattan/Brooklyn rental report. This monthly report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994. We discontinued the quarterly rental report series but still present the information in our aggregate database.

MANHATTAN

  • 25th consecutive month without a year-over-year decline in median rent.
  • Rents up slightly year-over-year and showing month over month stability in past several months – rents remain at high level.
  • Use of concessions by landlords is scarce – only 3.1% of rentals had some form of concession.
  • Days on market and listing discount are showing stability.
  • Vacancy remains low despite seasonal rise.
  • 3rd consecutive month with year-over-year decline in new rentals, suggesting more lease renewals.

BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest Regions]

  • All rental price indicators showed strong year-over-year gains.
  • Although days on market edged higher, listing discount fell sharply – latter indicates landlords are more in sync with market.
  • Modest rise in number of new rentals indicate landlords and tenants generally agree on pace of market rise.
  • Upper half of market showing larger gains in average rent than lower half.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

MANHATTAN Manhattan median rental price moved 1.1% higher to $3,042 from the same month last year. Average rental price also posted a modest gain, rising 1.7% to $3,822 over the same period. Average rental price per square foot was unchanged at $50.73. Only 3.1% of rental transactions during the month had some form of landlord concessions. When a concession was provided, it was the equivalent of 1-month free rent, up from 0.8 months free rent in the prior year period…

BROOKLYN Median rental price increased 5.1% to $2,675 from the same period last year. Average rental price expanded 8.2% to $3,035 and average price per square foot increased by 6.4% to $37.66 from the prior year period…




The Elliman Report: 7-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 7-2013 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rentals [Douglas Elliman]
Miller Samuel Aggregate Database [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Brooklyn Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Monthly) [Miller Samuel]
Chart Gallery (Manhattan Quarterly) [Miller Samuel]


[Sales Surged] 2Q 2013 Hamptons Sales Report

July 26, 2013 | 11:05 am | | Reports |

Douglas Elliman published the market report we prepared on the Hamptons sales market for 2Q 2013.

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Highest number of second quarter sales since 2006.
  • Listing inventory continued to fall.
  • Second highest median sales price in 5 years.
  • Sales above $5M slipped, but overall gain in sales above $1M expanded.
  • Despite jump in sales, would likely have been more without 2012 year end “fiscal cliff” rush.

Here’s an excerpt from the 2Q 2013 report:

…Like the prior quarter, there were fewer highend transactions, fallout from the year-end rush to close before the expiration of the “fiscal cliff” deadline for tax planning purposes. Although the number of sales at or above $5M fell by 13.2% to 33, the number of sales over $1M actually expanded by 4% to 44.7% over the same period reflecting a more active “trade-up” or upper middle market than last year. As a result of this skew, the overall average sales price fell by 1.6% to $1,696,879, yet the median sales price increased 8.2% to $920,000, the second highest median sales price in 5 years, second only to $937,500 reached in the second quarter two years ago…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 13 data. Check out the charts by browsing in our chart library.


The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Hamptons Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Hamptons Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Prices Up] 2Q 2013 North Fork Sales Report

July 26, 2013 | 10:53 am | | Reports |

Douglas Elliman published the report we author on the North Fork sales market for 2Q 2013.

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Housing prices were up across all segments.
  • Inventory fell from year ago levels as marketing time dropped.
  • Number of sales up sharply.
  • Credit remained tight keeping inventory low.

Here’s an excerpt from the 2Q 2013 report:

…In the second quarter of 2013, the North Fork housing market was characterized by rising sales and prices along with falling inventory. Many buyers have entered the market due to the combination of the following factors: tight credit, low inventory, the release of pent-up demand after the last year’s market uncertainty caused by the fiscal cliff, and anticipated rise of mortgage rates, due to the improved economy. Both price indicators were higher than the prior year levels. Median sales price was $459,750, up 10.8% and the average sales price rose 4% to $679,720…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 13 data. Check out the charts by browsing in our chart library.


The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 North Fork Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 North Fork Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Fast Pace] 2Q 2013 Long Island Sales Report

July 26, 2013 | 10:39 am | | Reports |

We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 2Q 2013.

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Fastest market pace since 2005 with absorption rate at 9.3 months.
  • Inventory fell sharply as closed sales and pending sales jumped.
  • Housing prices edged higher.
  • Tight credit continued to keep inventory off market.
  • Concern about rising mortgage rates pushed more buyers into the market.

Here’s an excerpt from the 2Q 2013 report:

…Although the pace of the Long Island market has been accelerating with more sales and less supply, prices continue to see only modest gains from the prior year levels. There were 16,300 listings in total inventory at the end of the second quarter, 17.5% less than in the same period last year. However, new inventory added to the market expanded by 8.7% to 12,292 over the same period, possibly providing some relief to homebuyers in the coming quarters…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 13 data. Check out the charts by browsing in our chart library.


The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Long Island Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

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Reporting from South Florida 2Q13: Miami, Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach

July 18, 2013 | 5:05 pm | | Reports |

Today Douglas Elliman published four 2Q 2013 South Florida market reports we prepare that include Miami, Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach.


[Up + Less Distressed] 2Q 2013 Miami Report

July 18, 2013 | 2:58 pm | | Reports |

We just published our report on the Miami Coastal Community housing markets. This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Inventory fell to 8-year low.
  • Jump in both number of sales and signed contracts.
  • Housing prices rose above year ago level.
  • Median sales price rose to highest level for second quarter in 8 years.
  • Credit remains tight keeping inventory low.
  • Heavy contract momentum carrying into next quarter.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

The overall number of sales rose by 15.4% to 6,416 to the highest total since we began tracking this metric in 2006. The market share for non-distressed sales comprised 67.2% of all market sales, up from 46.6% in the same quarter three years ago…There were 9,490 listings at the end of the second quarter, 18.8% less than in the prior year quarter. Distressed inventory fell by 44.1% and non-distressed inventory was down by 12% over the same period…

You can build your own custom data tables for Miami as well as view charts on the Miami market, all updated with 2Q13 data.




The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Miami Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Miami Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]
Miami Market Charts [Miller Samuel]

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