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[Presidential Reporting] 3Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

October 6, 2008 | 7:55 pm | | Reports |

The 3Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released on Friday.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 3Q 2008 data and a series of updated charts are also available

An excerpt

…The average price per square foot of all new development was $1,320 this quarter, down 1.5% from the prior year quarter. The average price per square foot of a re-sale apartment was up 4.3% to $1,142 per square foot as the bulk of higher end new development has been absorbed while higher end re-sale properties continue to sell…The impact of the credit contraction, associated volatility in the financial markets, as well as unprecedented government bailouts on a federal level have not shown up in the market data for the quarter. The key metrics to consider going forward are the lower level of sales activity compared to last year’s record levels and the rise of inventory. The reduction in affordable mortgage products continues to hamper buyers in New York as well as most housing markets across the country. The upcoming quarter begins with modest inventory levels and the likelihood of a reduction in new development units entering the housing stock next year due to the credit contraction….

In 2005, I began posting the links of the coverage of each report to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting way to look at how this information is interpreted and presented.

The media coverage of the report was provided here as they were released (in no particular order). The headlines selected provide an interesting media perspective of the report contents since everyone was working off the same information.



[East End] 2Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview Available For Download

July 30, 2008 | 6:10 pm | | Reports |

The online version of the Prudential Douglas Elliman 2Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is available for download.

I have been writing various incarnations of the New York regional market report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

To build Hamptons/North Fork custom data tables

To view Hamptons/North Fork charts

An excerpt

…The upper price range of the housing market continues to outperform the overall housing market. In each of the past four quarters, the luxury market, defined as the upper ten percent of all sales, saw a higher year over year quarterly increase in median sales price than the overall market. The luxury market increased 10.3% in median sales price and the overall market declined 9.2% in median sales price compared to the same period last year. The market area south of the highway consistently has the highest overall prices as compared to the areas to the north and on either side of the canal. Of the four regions, only south of the highway saw an increase in median sales price of 1% as compared to the prior year quarter…

Download report: 2Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]



2Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

July 17, 2008 | 12:01 am | | Reports |

The 2Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We took over the preparation of this market area study for them in 2Q 06.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

An excerpt

…In continuation of last quarter’s market pattern, the pace of inventory growth and the pace in the decline in the number of sales continue to slow but still show weakening market conditions. The lower level of activity is reflective of stressed economic conditions and more stringent underwriting guidelines of mortgage lenders, who are requiring larger down payments, tighter ratios and higher credit scores. Despite a decline in activity, price indicators were essentially unchanged from the prior year quarter. There is an expectation of higher sales activity in the third quarter as spillover from the spring market activity closes in the summer months…

Download report: 2Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]



[No Sleep Till Brooklyn] 2Q 2008 Brooklyn Market Overview Available For Download

July 11, 2008 | 12:52 am | | Reports |

The 2Q 2008 Brooklyn Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was just released.

It is the first comprehensive report of the entire borough, which is sort of surprising to me. Look for lots of additional data and charts on the market in the coming weeks. No sleep till Brooklyn!

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

A year’s worth of historical aggregate data (will have 5 years online in the coming weeks) and a series of charts will also be available soon.

An excerpt

…The median sales price of a residential property in Brooklyn slipped 1.9% to $525,000 from $535,000 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price increased overall due to the influence of new condo development activity on overall prices. The average sales price of a Brooklyn property was $588,441 this quarter, 2.4% higher than the prior year quarter average sales price of $574,454. Condo prices, on a price per square foot basis, were up 16.4% to $575 from $494 in the prior year quarter. There is broad disparity between new development and re-sale condo prices. The price per square foot of a condo in a new development was $649 per square foot, up 27.5% from the $509 price per square foot of the prior year quarter. Over the same period, re-sale condos averaged $496 per square foot, up 7.4% from the $462 price per square foot of the prior year quarter…

In 2005, I began posting the links of the coverage of each report to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting way to look at how this information is interpreted and presented.

The media coverage of the report will be provided here as they are released over the week (in no particular order).

Brooklyn home sales skid 44%; prices slip [New York Daily News]
Brooklyn Home Sales Drop 44% as Banks Tighten Lending [Bloomberg]
Brooklyn’s home sales and prices cooling [Crains New York]
Williamsburg, Greenpoint Home Prices Jump As Borough-Wide Sales Slump [NY Observer]
New Condos Saving Brooklyn Housing Market [NY Sun]
Brooklyn sales volume sees sharp drop [The Real Deal]
Second Quarter Brooklyn Market Report: Sales Nosedive! [Curbed]
Miller Samuel Report: Sales Down; Bstone, Burg Prices Up [Brownstoner]
‘KINGS’ ZINGED [NY Post]


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[Party Like Its 2009] 2Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

July 2, 2008 | 11:58 am | | Public |

The 2Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today. Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The data and a series of charts are also available

An excerpt

…Like the prior quarter, fewer sales occurred compared to the prior year quarter, but more than the corresponding quarter two years prior. There were 3,081 co-op and condo sales collected at the close of the quarter, down 21.8% from the prior year quarter. The decline in activity was evenly spread across coop and condo property types with the lower level of demand related to tighter credit and a weaker economy. With tighter credit conditions for market participants existing today as compared to last year, it is reasonable to expect a lower level of activity relative to 2007 for the remainder of 2008. In fact, there were more co-op and condo sales in 2007 than in any other year over the past 20 years…

In 2005, I began posting the links of the coverage of each report to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting way to look at how this information is interpreted and presented.

The media coverage of the report will be provided here as they are released over the week (in no particular order).

Manhattan Second-Quarter Apartment Sales Fall by 22% (Update1) [Bloomberg]
Manhattan apartment prices zoom but more on market [Reuters]
Wall Street’s ills weaken Manhattan apartment sales [NY Daily News]
Curbed Roundtable: July State O’ the Market Report [Curbed]
Manhattan housing prices edge up, but sales slow [The Real Deal]
The High-End End? [New York Observer]
Manhattan apartment sales drop, but prices climb [Associated Press/Businessweek]
Manhattan housing market slows [Crains New York Business]
Manhattan real estate starts to soften [CNN/Money]
Apartment Sales Remain Vigorous in Manhattan [New York Times]
City Housing Slump May Hit In 2009 [New York Sun]
MANHATTAN HIGH ROLLERS’ HIGH-RI$E HEAVEN [New York Post]
Sales still falling in Manhattan [Inman News]

[July 2, 2008] Bloomberg TV

[July 2, 2008] NY1 TV


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[Commercial Grade] Massey Knakal NYC Income Property Market Report Second Half 2007 prepared by Miller Cicero released

May 15, 2008 | 11:58 am | | Reports |

Commercial Grade is a post by John Cicero, MAI who provides commentary on issues affecting real estate appraisers, with specific focus on commercial valuation. John is a partner of mine in our commercial real estate valuation concern Miller Cicero, LLC and he is, depending on what day of the week it is, one of the smartest guys I know. …Jonathan Miller


The latest New York City Income Property Report covering the second half of 2007 has been released. I prepare this report semi-annually on behalf of Massey Knakal and it’s the only one of its kind. The report tracks the sales activity of walk-up apartment buildings, elevator apartment buildings and mixed-use buildings in five New York City markets: Manhattan (generally south of 96th Street), Northern Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx.

The total number of sales dropped 16% from the first half of 2007, but a more moderate 7% compared with the second half of 2006. Though the number of sales has declined prices remained stable and even increased in some instances. The following table reflects a peak in the number of sales in early 2006, while pricing has continued to rise.

Though this is clearly not as big as when Bob Knakal got his hair cut, for those interested the entire report is available for download at www.millercicero.com.


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[Miller Cicero] New York City Income Property Market Report Second Half 2007 Is Available For Download

May 15, 2008 | 11:49 am | Reports |

Our commercial advisory firm just released its New York City Income Property Market Report for the second half of 2007 for Massey Knakal. My commercial valuation partner John Cicero prepares the report. It’s the only report of its kind in the New York City commercial market.

Here’s an excerpt:

In the second half of 2007 credit tightened considerably as the losses in sub-prime mortgages worked their way through the financial markets. While indicators are somewhat mixed, in general during this period prices for income property remained stable throughout the city, though the number of sales dropped, in some instances quite dramatically. This reflects the “wait and see” attitude that characterized the period, with fewer buyers bidding and sellers reluctant to lower prices. The fundamentals of the market remained strong, however, with high apartment rents and very low vacancy. The prospect of turning over below market rent-regulated units to higher market levels continues to attract investors, and credit, though tighter, was still available albeit from different sources. Cap rates and gross income multipliers remained stable.

The number of sales dropped 16% from the first half of 2007 to the second half, though the decline was only 7% from the second half of 2006 to the second half of 2007. On a calendar year basis, there were overall 10.5% fewer sales in 2007 than 2006. Though the number of walk-up apartment buildings in Manhattan showed a sharp decline from the first half of the year, calendar year 2007 sales actually show a 16% increase over calendar year 2006…

Massey Knakal will distribute over 300,000 hard copies of the report over the next few months.

Massey Knakal New York City Income Property Market Report [2H07]

Report Methodology [Miller Cicero]


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[East End] 1Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview Available For Download

April 30, 2008 | 1:39 pm | | Reports |

The online version of the Prudential Douglas Elliman 1Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is available for download.

I have been writing various incarnations of the New York regional market report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

To build Hamptons/North Fork custom data tables

To view Hamptons/North Fork charts

An excerpt

…Both median and average sales price indicators were above levels reached in the prior year quarter. There was an upward skew in average sales price not seen in the change in median sales price, which was $790,000 up 1.9% over the prior year period median sales price of $775,000. The average sales price was $1,728,610 this quarter, up 16.8% above the prior year quarter, the second highest quarterly average sales price after the third quarter of 2007, which had an average sales price of $1,805,104.

Besides the rise in price indicators within the top 20% of the market, perhaps one of the more striking characteristics of the East End was the decline in overall number of sales. The lower volume of sales activity is largely attributable to the declining national economic climate, tighter credit and a weaker employment picture in the New York City financial services sector…

Download report: 1Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]



1Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

April 16, 2008 | 1:01 pm | | Reports |

The 1Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We took over the preparation of this market area study for them in 2Q 06.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

An excerpt

..Price indicators for the quarter will mixed as compared to the same period a year ago. The average sales price was $514,135, up 3.6% while the median sales price of $435,000 was down 0.6%. The number of sales were down 14.1% to 6,015 units while inventory levels were up 10.2% to 35,209 units. A weaker economy and difficulties with access to credit have tempered the demand for housing compared to the past several years. The expansion of the days on market indicator and rising inventory levels are the result of reduced demand, yet the pace of inventory growth is easing. The next quarter tends to be the most active quarter of the year as characterized by elevated sales activity and price growth…

Download report: 1Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]



[Transition Report] 1Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

April 2, 2008 | 12:02 am | | Public |

The 1Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today. Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The data and a series of charts will be uploaded today as well.

An excerpt

…The elevated pace of sales from the past 5 quarters cools as the volatility in the financial markets begins to touch Manhattan. Based on activity in the first quarter it is likely that the record number of sales in 2007 will not be repeated in 2008. Sales in the current quarter declined to levels seen two years ago. The reduction of available credit, less favorable mortgage terms, the national economy moving towards a recession and the specter of additional layoffs in the financial services sector over the next two years has begun to restrain the demand for Manhattan residential real estate. Still, the regional economy is performing well, tourism and hotel occupancy rates are at or near record levels and the New York City government is financially well positioned for the next two years. The US dollar has set new lows against several currencies, which continues to bring new sources of demand, with specific emphasis on condo new development projects….

In 2005, I began posting the links of the coverage of each report to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting experience.

The media coverage of the report will be provided here as they are released over the week.

Manhattan Apartment Prices Hit Record High Despite Slump [NYT]
Housing Slump — in New York ? [WSJ]
Manhattan Condo, Co-op Sales Decline Most in 18 Years (Update2) [Bloomberg]
Trouble in the sky-rise? [The Economist]
Co-op, condo sales dive in Manhattan [NY Daily News]
Manhattan apartment prices increase [The Real Deal]
Manhattan Home Sales Slow, Prices Rise [AP]
Manhattan apartment prices rise but sales fall [Reuters]
First Quarter Reports: Real Estate Cooling [New York Sun]
Average Manhattan home hits record $1.6 million [CNN/Money]
Manhattan apartments: prices up, sales down [Crain’s]
First Quarter Market Reports: Prices Up, Sales Down [Curbed]
Condos Ascendant! But What Price Victory? [New York Observer]
Manhattan Apartments Remain Pricey, Slowdown Ahead [Gothamist]
NYC home sales drop [Times Leader (PA)]
Housing Market Tracker – It’s About Affordability, Stupid.[Seeking Alpha]
Manhattan Home Sales Slow, Prices Rise [Huffington Post]
Manhattan apartment sales drop off in 1st quarter, but prices still climb due to luxury sales [MN Star Tribune]
Real estate data show market cooling [Metro.US]
Property in Manhattan at an 18 year Low [Investment Markets]
What Slump? Manhattan Housing Prices Hit Record High [NY1]

Radio and TV clips

[April 2, 2008] CNN en Espanol
[April 2, 2008] Bloomberg TV
[April 2, 2008] NY 1
April 2, 2008] Bloomberg Radio


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[East End Round-up] 4Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview Available For Download

April 1, 2008 | 10:10 pm | | Reports |

Although it is April Fool’s Day, I realized I was negligent in posting the Hamptons/North Fork report on Matrix and my web site (hey, I know 1Q 08 is now over and I am working on that report.) The report was previously available at the Prudential Douglas Elliman site.

The PDF version of the 4Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is available for download. I have been writing various incarnations of my New York regional market report series for them since 1994.

In short order (by 1Q 08), I’ll be adding data tables and charts to the Miller Samuel web site.

An excerpt

…The average sales price of an East End property was $1,487,161 in the current quarter, up 17.6% from the $1,264,165 average sales price of the same period last year. Median sales price, which generally eliminates price outliers, showed a similar pattern. The median sales price was $800,000, an increase of 14.7% above the prior year quarter median sales price of $697,500. Over the past few years, the year over year pace of price growth in the third quarter has been larger than any other quarter of the year. The higher price levels reached in the third quarter have inferred quarter over quarter weakness going to the fourth quarter…Over the past year, the pace of price increases in the East End has been higher in the luxury sector…

Download report: 4Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]



1998-2007 Manhattan Market Report Available For Download

March 16, 2008 | 2:05 pm | | Reports |

The PDF version of the 1998-2007 Manhattan Market Report [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for PDE since 1994. The report is the aggregate of the four previous quarterly reports.

More than 90,000 co-op and condo sales transactions from more than 6,400 buildings over the last ten years were analyzed. Each of the 53 different market areas was analyzed with data tables and charts as well as a summary matrix with prior year and prior decade comparisons.

“The Phone Book” is heavy on numbers and charts and light on text.

In addition, you can see the methodology that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

An excerpt

…The average sales price of a Manhattan apartment set a record for the 11th consecutive year. In 1996, the unadjusted average sales price was $399,501. The 2007 average sales price was $1,351,621, up 4.3% over the prior year record of $1,295,445 and up 238.3% from the average sales price in 1996, when this trend began. However, the pace of price growth has slowed for the second consecutive year. After a recent high water market of 21.6% price growth in 2005, the pace of overall price growth slowed to 6.1% in 2006 and 4.3% in 2007. There were a record 13,430 sales in 2007, a 58.1% increase over the 2006 total of 8,493 sales. The 2006 number of sales total had been consistent with the 8,510 average annual number of sales over the preceding decade. The significant increase in the number of sales this year resulted in a 13.5% drop in inventory levels. Without the addition of new development to the housing stock in 2007, the decline is re-sale inventory was more pronounced. There was a 26.2% year over year decline in the number of co-op apartments listed for sale, yet the number of condo units was unchanged. Co-op apartments are primarily comprised of re-sales because new development entering the market is nearly exclusive to condo property types. The year over year change in condo inventory was 0% indicating that the sharp decline in re-sale inventory seen in the co-op market was offset by new development condo inventory being added to the market….

Download report: 1998-2007 Manhattan Market Report [pdf]

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