Matrix Blog

Elliman Reports

1998-2007 Manhattan Market Report Available For Download

March 16, 2008 | 2:05 pm | | Reports |

The PDF version of the 1998-2007 Manhattan Market Report [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for PDE since 1994. The report is the aggregate of the four previous quarterly reports.

More than 90,000 co-op and condo sales transactions from more than 6,400 buildings over the last ten years were analyzed. Each of the 53 different market areas was analyzed with data tables and charts as well as a summary matrix with prior year and prior decade comparisons.

“The Phone Book” is heavy on numbers and charts and light on text.

In addition, you can see the [methodology]) that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

An excerpt

…The average sales price of a Manhattan apartment set a record for the 11th consecutive year. In 1996, the unadjusted average sales price was $399,501. The 2007 average sales price was $1,351,621, up 4.3% over the prior year record of $1,295,445 and up 238.3% from the average sales price in 1996, when this trend began. However, the pace of price growth has slowed for the second consecutive year. After a recent high water market of 21.6% price growth in 2005, the pace of overall price growth slowed to 6.1% in 2006 and 4.3% in 2007. There were a record 13,430 sales in 2007, a 58.1% increase over the 2006 total of 8,493 sales. The 2006 number of sales total had been consistent with the 8,510 average annual number of sales over the preceding decade. The significant increase in the number of sales this year resulted in a 13.5% drop in inventory levels. Without the addition of new development to the housing stock in 2007, the decline is re-sale inventory was more pronounced. There was a 26.2% year over year decline in the number of co-op apartments listed for sale, yet the number of condo units was unchanged. Co-op apartments are primarily comprised of re-sales because new development entering the market is nearly exclusive to condo property types. The year over year change in condo inventory was 0% indicating that the sharp decline in re-sale inventory seen in the co-op market was offset by new development condo inventory being added to the market….

Download report: 1998-2007 Manhattan Market Report [pdf]


1998-2007 Manhattan Townhouse Report Available For Download

March 16, 2008 | 1:14 pm | | Reports |

The PDF version of the 1998-2007 Manhattan Townhouse Report that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman is available for download. I have been writing various reports on the New York region since 1994.

In addition, you can see the methodology that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

An excerpt

Over 2,500 Manhattan residential townhouse transactions were analyzed over this ten year period. 1, 2 and 3-5 (delivered vacant) family houses comprised the data set.

…The average sales price of a Manhattan townhouse was a record $4,658,155 in 2007, up 14.1% from the prior year record average sales price of $4,082,837. The 2007 record is more than twice, or 116.5% higher than the $2,151,653 average sales price in 1998. Median sales price showed a similar pattern. The median sales price for 2007 was a record $3,125,000, up 15.7% from the prior year record median sales price of $2,700,000. Because the average square footage of townhouses dropped sharply in the past year, the average price per square foot jumped over the same period. Average price per square foot reached a record $1,137 in 2007, up 32.8% above the $856 price per square foot seen in 2006. This indicator is 145% above the $464 average price per square foot in 1998. Other than the decline seen from 2000 to 2001, the price per square foot has been the same or higher than the prior year for the past decade….

Download report: 1998-2007 Manhattan Townhouse Report [pdf]



4Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

February 8, 2008 | 11:40 am | | Reports |

The 4Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We introduced this market area study in 2Q 06 for them.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

_An excerpt_

…The overall median sales price for Long Island/Queens showed a decline over the prior year quarter. Over the same period, average sales price showed a similar pattern of decline as did the number of sales. Listing inventory continued to expand as did the days on market and listing discount indicators. These market patterns are being seen in many suburban markets across the country, made worse by the turmoil seen in the credit markets since last summer. This has impacted affordability with higher down payment requirements, and more stringent underwriting guidelines applied to buyer mortgage applications. A constraint on the flow of transactions has the effect of reducing the number of sales, which in turn raises inventory levels and tempers the potential for rising prices in the spring market…

Download report: 4Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]



[Introducing] 3Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview Available For Download

December 23, 2007 | 2:19 pm | | Reports |

Well, its been a long time coming because extracting data from the East End has been the most challenging of all the reports I have done to date, but the Hamptons/North Fork has finally been added to the family of market reports I prepare for Prudential Douglas Elliman.

The PDF version of the 3Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is available for download. I have been writing various incarnations of this market report series for them since 1994.

In short order (by 4Q), I’ll be adding data tables and charts to the Miller Samuel web site.

An excerpt

…The average sales price of a residential property in the East End was $1,805,104 this quarter, up 32.7% from the prior year quarter average sales price of $1,360,515 and up 8.2% from the prior quarter average sales price of $1,668,657. The median sales price was $882,000, up 23% from the prior year quarter median sales price of $717,340 but slipped 2% from the $900,000 median sales price in the prior quarter. The nearly identical growth in these indicators from the prior year quarter suggests that average sales price was not significantly skewed by the upper end of the market. Listing inventory, however, increased 27.8% from the prior quarter total of 3,501 units to 4,475 units in the current quarter. The tracking of inventory levels for this report began in 2007….In contrast to the rise in price indicators, the number of sales continued to slip. There were 427 sales in the current quarter, down 30.5% from the prior year quarter total of 614 and down 31.6% from the prior quarter total of 624 units. The sharp increase in price levels has likely played a significant role in the diminished number of sales this quarter. This is also consistent with the recent increase in listing inventory…

Download report: 3Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]



3Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

November 5, 2007 | 12:01 am | | Reports |

The 3Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We created this market area study in 2006.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

_An excerpt_

…Price trends varied widely by market and price segment. Inventory increased over the past year, but dropped as compared to the prior quarter as the number of sales has continued to decline. Average days on market and average listing discount expanded versus the prior year quarter but declined from the prior quarter. The mixed results for the quarter suggests that the overall Long Island/Queens market is moving “sideways” for the time being, with no clear pattern evident. The median sales price of a Long Island/Queens single family or condo was $445,000, down 2.2% from the prior year record median sales price of $455,000 and unchanged from the prior quarter median sales price. The average sales price was a record $530,916, up 1.3% from the record $524,073 seen in the prior year quarter and up 4.8% from the prior quarter average sales price of $506,580. Suffolk showed the most gains in average sales price with a record $469,331 average sales price, up 2.3% from the prior year quarter. Nassau was the next highest with a record $628,839 average sales price, up 1.7% from the prior year quarter. Queens showed the most weakness with a 2.9% decline to $484,847 from the record average sales price in the prior year quarter. The luxury market showed unexpected price growth this quarter as evidenced by the upper two quintiles in Suffolk and Nassau counties….

Download report: 3Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]



3Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

October 29, 2007 | 2:04 pm | | Reports |

The PDF version of the 3Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994.

In addition, you can see the methodology that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 1Q 89 through 3Q 2007) and view a series of quarterly market charts, most related to the current market report.

An excerpt

…Manhattan remains contrarian, but with reasonable expectations The high level of sales activity, combined with declining inventory levels, listing discounts and marketing times has not resulted in significant price appreciation year to date. This suggests a market psyche containing reasonable expectations of both buyers and sellers. This is a significant departure from the contentious conditions between market participants seen in the past several years, evidenced by patterns of sharply rising prices and declining sales. Buyers were being priced out the market and sellers had been conditioned to a rapidly appreciating market over the prior five years. In addition, Wall Street mortgage and credit market problems that appeared in mid-July and August have yet to show an impact in market data for the current quarter. Existing mortgage underwriting guidelines have become more strictly enforced with fewer exceptions allowed. A lower number of mortgage options and higher qualifying requirements for buyers is expected to temper the flow of sales activity…

Download report: 3Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview [pdf]



1997-2006 Manhattan Townhouse Report Available For Download

September 13, 2007 | 12:12 am | | Reports |

The PDF version of the 1997-2006 Manhattan Townhouse Report that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman is available for download. I have been writing this market report series for them since 1994.

Admittedly I am a little embarrassed that I let the report languish as we were sidetracked on other projects. A few months ago I decided to finally update the series and insert it back into a regular release schedule. It will be released shortly after the beginning of the year with the 2007 market data.

I am happy with the result since this level of detail hasn’t been presented before.

In addition, you can see the methodology that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

An excerpt

…The Manhattan townhouse market is a fixed form of residential housing stock that has very few new structures added due to limited acceptance of new construction. It accounted for 2.8% of all the sales over the past ten years, with a 3.1% market share in 2006. The average square footage was 4,188 in 2006, the average width was 19.1 feet and the average number of stories was 3.9. Over the past ten years, there has been a significant increase in market share of Uptown townhouses, growing from 6.2% of all townhouse sales in 1997 to 45.1% in 2006. The average sales price of a townhouse, excluding Uptown, was $6,398,223 in the current year, up 14.5% from the prior year average sales price of $5,587,277 in 2005 and up 251.2% from the $1,821,980 average sales price in 1997…

Download report: 1997-2006 Manhattan Townhouse Report [pdf]



2Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

July 25, 2007 | 2:50 pm | | Radio |

The 2Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We created this market area study in 2006.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 2Q 2003 through 2Q 2007 [2Q 2007 – to be uploaded shortly]). I have created a series of quarterly market charts that may also be of interest.

_An excerpt_

…Both average sales price and median sales price indicators approached stabilization, after two years of decline. However, changes in price levels varied by price strata and market area. The most notable price changes occurred in a weaker North Shore market and a stronger Queens condo market. Despite stabilizing prices, the overall number of sales fell across the entire region with the North Shore market being the only market to show a gain as compared to the same period last year. As a result of diminished demand, inventory levels have continued to rise, causing other market indicators like days on market and listing discount to expand. A decline in the overall number of sales in one of the most active quarters of the year suggests that the housing market may experience continued weakness in the near future…..

Download report: 2Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]

Here’s a brief summary of the media coverage for the study. Its interesting to place the coverage side-by-side because its based on the same data.

Here’s the recap:

Queens-Long Island Home Prices Little Changed in Second Quarter [Bloomberg]
HARSH REALTY IN QUEENS. [New York Post]
LI, Queens housing sales still cool [Newsday]
LI, Queens housing sales still cool [amNew York]
Queens prices down in 2nd quarter [The Real Deal]
Queens Residential Market Drops, Except for the Pricey Stuff [Curbed]
Queens-Long Island Home Prices [Bloomberg Radio (no clip yet)]


Tags:


2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

July 8, 2007 | 7:30 pm | | Reports |

The PDF version of the 2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994.

Here is some additional information from Prudential Douglas Elliman’s CEO/President Dottie Herman covering the 2Q 07 report release. Since she purchased PDE four years ago, she has been unwavering in her support of my requirement to remain independent in the preparation of these reports (and of course, it goes without saying that I am also able to remain dull and boring).

In addition, you can see the methodology that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 1Q 89 through 2Q 2007) and view a series of quarterly market charts, most related to the current market report.

An excerpt

…The number of Manhattan apartment sales are at record levels. Listing inventory has fallen sharply from recent highs. Two of three price indicators tracked in this study set records. Days on market and listing discount indicators are contracting. In contrast, national housing statistics, while not reflective of individual markets, show just the opposite. The New York City economy continues to show improvement coming after two consecutive years of record Wall Street bonus payouts. Preliminary indicators from the financial services sector show more of the same strength bonus income in the coming year. Mortgage rates are low despite recent increases. The government is running a budget surplus, unemployment is low and the weak dollar has brought in significant foreign investment. The constant in the demand/supply equation has been new development activity, whose pace has not abated for the past three years. It contributed to the rise in inventory levels of 2005 and 2006, but the significant demand has more than offset new product added to the market in 2007. The relatively inelastic short term response to demand suggests that the high level of demand is something to focus on for the remainder of the year and through 2008.

Download report: 2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview [pdf]


Tags: ,


1Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

April 23, 2007 | 12:03 am | | Public |

The PDF version of the 1Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We just introduced this study series in 2006.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 2Q 2003 through 1Q 2007). I have created a series of quarterly market charts that may be of interest as well.

_An excerpt_

…Overall price indicators showed weakness this quarter particularly at the higher end of the market. Overall median sales price showed relative stability as compared to the same period last year while average sales price showed a modest decline. Inventory levels are expected to level off as seasonal demand increases the number of sales. Current inventory levels remain below those seen in the second and third quarters of last year. However, the number of sales for the quarter is the lowest seen in three years suggesting a lower intensity of sales activity this spring, even when seasonally adjusted….

Download report: 1Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]

Here’s the media coverage for the study. I think I got most of them. Normally I would have covered this the day of publication last week but if you remember, I was kind of in Seine.

Here’s the recap:

Bloomberg News
The Real Deal
New York Observer
Newsday
Crain’s New York

WPIX CW11
Bloomberg Television – In Focus

Bloomberg Radio
Bloomberg Radio


Tags: ,


1997-2006 Manhattan Market Report Is Available For Download

March 20, 2007 | 7:17 am | | Reports |

The PDF version of the 1997-2006 Manhattan Market Report [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994. The report is the aggregate of the four previous quarterly reports.

More than 85,000 co-op and condo sales transactions from more than 6,400 buildings over the last ten years were analyzed. Each of the 53 different market areas was analyzed with data tables and charts as well as a summary matrix with prior year and prior decade comparisons.

I lovingly have dubbed this report “The Phone Book” for the pages and pages of “numbers” it contains. Even though the quarterly gets more coverage in the media, this report has about the same number of annual downloads as the four quarterly reports, combined.

In addition, you can see the [methodology]) that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (1989 to 2006) and view a series of market charts.

An excerpt

… All Manhattan price indicators set records this year over the records set in the prior year. The average sales price this year was a record $1,295,445, up 6.1% from the prior year record average sales price of $1,221,265. Although the price indicators set records over the past two years, the pace of price growth has slowed considerably. The 6.1% increase in average sales price was well below the 21.6% appreciation rate seen in the prior year as well as the 18.1% appreciation rate that occurred in the year before that. The lowest annual appreciation rate of the past decade occurred in 2002 where the effects of 9/11 brought the appreciation rate down to 2.1% from 9.5% and 37.2% in the prior two years respectively.

At the end of 2006, there were 5,934 units listed for sale, down 0.5% from the prior year total of 5,964 units. The first half of the year, however was characterized by sharply increasing inventory levels, peaking in the second quarter at 7,640 units. Inventory leveled off in the third quarter and dropped back to levels seen at the end of 2005.

For the second straight year the days on market and listing indicators expanded. The increases this year as compared to the prior year were larger, returning to levels that existed before the housing boom began in the early part of this decade….

Download report: 1997-2006 Manhattan Market Report [pdf]


4Q 2006 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

February 7, 2007 | 8:20 am | | Public |

The PDF version of the 4Q 2006 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. I have been writing market reports for them since 1994. This market coverage is a relative newcomer to the series.

You can see the [methodology]) that went into the report.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 2Q 2003 through 4Q 2006). I plan on creating a series of quarterly market charts like we have for Manhattan.

_An excerpt_

…Sales prices in the overall market remained relatively stable, kept in check by rising demand and declining inventory. With the cash-out phenomenon waning as existing homeowners, who were not priced at market levels allowed their listings to expire. This has helped clear clutter in the market for buyers. At the same time, sellers appear to be more negotiable this quarter as the listing discount increase at the same time the number of sales did. Lower end price points like the condo market were generally stable but there was weakness in price levels at the upper end of the market, as evidenced by the North Shore and luxury sectors, which saw lower prices at the upper strata but, interestingly, some of the highest increases in the number of sales over the past year…

Download report: 4Q 2006 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]

Get Weekly Insights and Research

Housing Notes by Jonathan Miller

Receive Jonathan Miller's 'Housing Notes' and get regular market insights, the market report series for Douglas Elliman Real Estate as well as interviews, columns, blog posts and other content.

Follow Jonathan on Twitter

#Housing analyst, #realestate, #appraiser, podcaster/blogger, non-economist, Miller Samuel CEO, family man, maker of snow and lobster fisherman (order varies)
NYC CT Hamptons DC Miami LA Aspen
millersamuel.com/housing-notes
Joined October 2007