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NYT Real Estate: Signs of a Manhattan Rental Market Recovery

November 21, 2020 | 12:49 pm | | Charts |

This weekend’s New York Times Real Estate Calculator column provides a visualization of the recent rental market results in The Elliman Report: October 2020 Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals

The Manhattan changes were the most interesting to me – record highs set for the vacancy rate, concession market share, concession amount, yoy% change in median net effective rent overall, studio, 1-bed, & 2-beds. Yet we saw for the first time in fourteen months, a jump in YOY% new lease signings and the highest October new lease signing total on record.

The significantly weaker rental market final hit a point that caused demand to begin to flood back into the market.


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The ‘Urban To Suburban’ Narrative Is Really ‘Manhattan To Suburban’

August 19, 2020 | 1:26 pm | | Charts |

This post previously appeared in the August 14, 2020 edition of Housing Notes. I’ve been writing these weekly summaries on housing topics for more than five years. To subscribe for free, you can sign up here. Then you can look forward to each issue every Friday at 2pm New York Time.

The New York Times created a terrific graphic on our Elliman New Signed Contract Report by illustrating the performance of Manhattan and Brooklyn versus Westchester County. Brooklyn’s sales market performance is closer to Westchester than it is to its city counterpart.


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[Bloomberg TV] Bloomberg Markets 7-6-20: A Busy Housing Market This Summer

July 6, 2020 | 5:17 pm | | TV, Videos |

Had a wonderful, nearly 7.5-minute conversation with Vonnie Quinn on Bloomberg Television’s Markets today discussing how the housing market will likely look over the summer. The interview touched on the analysis in the Douglas Elliman Report series I author.

Some ‘inside baseball’ fun. I was connected to Bloomberg via Zoom from my home for this. If you look closely at the 5:15 mark, you can see my garage door open as my wife drives in. My wife panicked when watching this clip, thinking she would be on TV as she walked out of the garage, but randomly ended up using the other door.


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NYT Real Estate Event May 21st @2:30 E.T. New York Real Estate: How Low Will Prices Go?

May 20, 2020 | 1:19 pm | | Events |

I’ve been asked to participate in Thursday’s New York Times Event New York Real Estate: How Low Will Prices Go?”.

Click on the image below to RSVP!


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Manhattan Crisis: What Does Our Housing Past Tell Us About Our Housing Future?

May 7, 2020 | 1:02 pm | |

In this Sunday’s New York Times Real Estate Section (online now), the Calculator column featured some data trends I’ve gathered during two significant prior housing market events: What Can 9/11 and the Great Recession Tell Us About Coronavirus Recovery?

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Do We Hope This Listing Goes Viral?…No We Don’t.

April 7, 2020 | 2:08 pm | | Favorites |

I am reading a lot more about everything right now, including real estate. Yesterday’s Bloomberg article caught my eye: Greenwich Homeowner Bets on Virus Getaway Pitch to Win a Sale. Desperation to sell can take many forms. Please read on.

The article featured a listing in Greenwich, CT that came on 68 days ago that wasn’t moving (I assume this based on what was done later). Here is the text for the original listing displayed at the bottom the screenshot:

Like new light-filled house with a modern design by Donald Breismeister including 9 ft ceilings on the first floor. High-tech amenities throughout with e-thermostat, lighting and security cameras all hardwifred CAT-5 wiring throughout. Bathrooms are beautiful and modern with separate steamshower and large whirlpool tub. Nice front yard and backyard has large entertainment deck. All these amenities are just two blocks from the Post Road on a quiet road within walking distance to GreenwichHS, Greenwich Country Day and Central MS.


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With the sales market slowing down despite entering peak selling season, many homeowners are reluctant to add their homes to the rental market. The owner in the article said:

“I rented property in the past. It’s too much hassle. My trust level is pretty low with renters.”

About ten days ago the listing was modified by raising the price to $100,000 and throwing in a 2011 Subaru, linens, televisions, etc. and rebranding the sales effort as a Coronavirus Special (bold emphasis mine).

CORONAVIRUS SPECIAL – Some houses are move-in ready. This house is live-in ready. It comes with all furniture, kitchen appliances, washer & dryer, dishes, silverware, TVs, pool table, beds, linens, lawn equipment and even a car. Everything you need to enjoy living in your own house in Greenwich. The house was designed by an award winning architect with lots of custom features. The first floor has high ceilings and two fireplaces. You have a Costco closet just off the 2-car garages and 5 BRs upstairs.You have town water, gas and sewer and are close to both public and private schools. Tomney is a quiet side street, but near downtown, the train and I-95.If you don’t want the time and hassle of arranging movers and buying lots of new items, this house is ready for you now.

While I very much appreciate how hard it is right now to market a home for sale during a global pandemic, the marketing of a home as a CORONAVIRUS SPECIAL is a bit tone-deaf especially when raising the price to include a bunch of the seller’s personal stuff. “Throwing in” used furniture, appliances, linens and an old car by raising the listing price by $100,000 is not, by definition, “throwing it in.”

When I first saw the listing in the Bloomberg piece I thought about all the snarky headlines during other pandemics/tragedies and using brutal sarcasm I found myself chuckling from the absurdity of all of it. Now, as I was writing this post a day later, the initial LMAO title ideas felt icky and were not worth repeating.

Q: Can you imagine associating the word “SPECIAL” with these?

  • AIDS
  • SARS
  • H1N1
  • 9/11

A: I didn’t think so.

Times like this call for creative marketing and perhaps the Bloomberg story and even this blog post may bring new eyeballs to the listing to help it sell. I suspect that won’t happen because the appearance of the home and what comes with it for the price isn’t the problem. The agent is definitely not the problem. The seller is definitely not the problem. The problem is the sudden change in the world we live in and the understanding that it will take time to adapt. Our initial impulses to take action, such as this situation, are often wrong.

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More Bloomberg Media Hits On Real Estate and the Coronavirus

April 5, 2020 | 2:29 pm | | Podcasts |

If you missed this week’s Housing Notes, here are two Bloomberg clips (from radio and TV) where I break down the state of the market post-Coronavirus:


Bloomberg Radio: Surveillance – ‘Jonathan Miller…details how the housing market is dealing with fallout from the coronavirus.’

I spoke with Tom Keene and Lisa Abramowicz on Bloomberg Radio’s morning show “Surveillance” on the state of the housing market.

The full segment is a great listen. My interview starts at 21:33.


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Bloomberg TV: Markets – ‘Manhattan Home Sellers Hold Back Listings During Coronavirus’

I joined network Vonnie Quinn in New York to talk about the state of the market since the coronavirus hit. She is always wonderful to speak with. The stock photo they used for me was taken about 15 years ago (when I was 15, obviously). At the last second, they had me speak through their London bureau for technical reasons, so each question and answer saw a small delay. The interview was based on this Bloomberg article: Manhattan Home Sellers Hold Back Listings in Coronavirus Retreat:


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Bloomberg Radio’s Barry Ritholtz – Masters in Business Show: Jonathan Miller on Real Estate After the Coronavirus

April 5, 2020 | 2:17 pm | Podcasts |

I joined my friend, columnist/blogger at Big Picture and Bloomberg Radio host Barry Ritholtz to talk about the housing market before and after the Coronavirus crisis on his must-listen radio and podcast show Masters in Business. He interviewed me in 2014, 2016 and now, 2020.

I rationalized that the long gap since 2016 was because he was interviewing other Millers on his show, Steve Miller of the Steve Miller Band and Bill Miller of Legg Mason Capital Management. Ha.

Barry’s show is always a good listen and has long been part of my podcast feed. I’ve received quite a few shoutouts from people who were listening to the show in their cars.


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Cheddar TV – Looking Back In History (8 Days Ago) To Talk Falling Rates

March 19, 2020 | 1:22 pm | TV, Videos |

Cheddar TV reached out to me on March 11th as I was 4 days into my self-quarantine and my voice sounded quite scary. Aside from bad lighting and a red face, the discussion was long-form in nature covering low mortgage rates, which is why I so appreciate Cheddar’s format.

March 11 was soooo long ago!

Using Skype (which has been improved since Microsoft acquired it to be less of a horror show) I am able to blur out the background so you don’t get distracted by my prized autographed drum head from Lynyrd Skynrd, my 2002 March Madness pool victory plaque and my certificate for passing a 1978 Italian Cooking class in my Dad’s former cooking school in the DMV.


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Manhattan Co-op Sales Fall During Federal Election Year

February 5, 2020 | 3:52 pm | | Charts |

For the past decade, I’ve been observing a pullback in sales in the summer of an election year and then a release in sales after the election into the new year, no matter the party or the candidate. I was speaking about this to Sylvia Varnham O’Regan at The Real Deal Magazine, and she asked me to prove it empirically.

So I did.

Her article: This is how presidential elections really affect home sales lays it out for the Manhattan market.

My methodology:

  • The data set was co-op based because they account for 74% of the apartment market and doesn’t have the wild fluctuation of contract versus closing date because of condo new development lags.
  • We don’t have all the contract dates for co-ops, but for those we do, they have been remarkably consistent at around 90 days. That 90-day average was applied to all the closing dates to reverse-engineer contract dates.
  • Contracts for even and odd years were compared: Even years represented federal election years, including midterms.

The results compared federal election years to non-federal election years, finding that beginning in June of an election year, sales were progressively weaker than their non-election year counterpart. The most significant difference occurred in September during an election year with a 12.7% weaker sales market than a non-election year. Beginning in November during an election year, sales overpower their non-election year counterpart, with the release of pent-up demand occurring well into the following spring.

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The Brick Underground Podcast: 1-23-20 Talking Peak Uncertainty

January 23, 2020 | 2:07 pm | | Podcasts |

I joined Emily Myers of Brick Underground for my third interview on their podcast series. The discussion topics are covered here: The Brick Underground Podcast: How does NYC real estate move past ‘peak uncertainty’ in 2020.

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Bloomberg Markets 1-6-20: Manhattan High-End Hurt By New Tax Laws

January 7, 2020 | 9:08 am | | TV, Videos |


I joined Vonnie Quinn on Bloomberg Markets to talk about the results of my recent research for Douglas Elliman’s Elliman Report: Manhattan Sales Report Q4-2019. Always enjoy the conversation.

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