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1Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

April 23, 2007 | 12:03 am | | Public |

The PDF version of the 1Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We just introduced this study series in 2006.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 2Q 2003 through 1Q 2007). I have created a series of quarterly market charts that may be of interest as well.

_An excerpt_

…Overall price indicators showed weakness this quarter particularly at the higher end of the market. Overall median sales price showed relative stability as compared to the same period last year while average sales price showed a modest decline. Inventory levels are expected to level off as seasonal demand increases the number of sales. Current inventory levels remain below those seen in the second and third quarters of last year. However, the number of sales for the quarter is the lowest seen in three years suggesting a lower intensity of sales activity this spring, even when seasonally adjusted….

Download report: 1Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]

Here’s the media coverage for the study. I think I got most of them. Normally I would have covered this the day of publication last week but if you remember, I was kind of in Seine.

Here’s the recap:

Bloomberg News
The Real Deal
New York Observer
Newsday
Crain’s New York

WPIX CW11
Bloomberg Television – In Focus

Bloomberg Radio
Bloomberg Radio


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[Media Chain-Links => Post March Madness] 1Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview

April 3, 2007 | 7:17 am | | Public |

My firm released the 1Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview that we author for Prudential Douglas Elliman today. Its pretty much consumed most of my time for the past week and I am glad it is finally out. The “pretty” version should be online by the end of the day.

Note: I am equally thrilled that I won my March Madness pool last night with a Florida win.

The numbers were released and my summary of their interpretation were provided to the media for the coverage today. The actual data and charts will be available later today as well.

A year ago, I began posting the links to the coverage of each report as they are released to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting process.

This list of articles is presented basically when I found them. I also include some duplicate news feeds because I like to see what regions are interested in the story – I place those near the bottom because of the repetition. I’ll keep adding links through the end of the week.

The Link List

Market Strong for Apartments in Manhattan [NYT] April 3, 2007
Big Apple’s Housing Market Shines [TheStreet.com] April 3, 2007
Manhattan home prices on the rise – again [CNN/Money] April 3, 2007
CITY HIGH RI$E [New York Post] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Apartment Prices Increase at Slower Pace [Bloomberg] April 3, 2007
Wall St dollars help NY buck U.S. housing decline [Reuters] April 3, 2007
Buoyant Manhattan Market Bucks National Housing Trend [New York Sun] April 3, 2007
No bubble in NYC apartment prices [New York Daily News] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Market Report: Sales Soar, Prices Nudge Up [Curbed] April 3, 2007
Residential market in bloom [The Real Deal] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Apartments Keep Selling [Gothamist] April 3, 2007
Manhattan home prices still rising [MSN Money] April 3, 2007
Wall St dollars help NY buck housing decline [Yahoo! News] April 3, 2007
Manhattan’s real estate market stays hot [amNew York] April 3, 2007
Big Apple Bucking National Housing Market Trends [All Headline News] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market Surges in 2007 [Commercial Property News] April 3, 2007
Quarterly Figures Defy Dour Predictions [New York Observer] April 4, 2007

Radio and TV clips

Manhattan Residential Market [Bloomberg TV] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market Surges in 2007 [Dow Jones TV] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market [Bloomberg TV] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market [WABC-TV] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market [WNYW-TV Fox 5] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market [NY 1] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market [NY 1] April 3, 2007

[Bloomberg Radio] April 4, 2007
[Bloomberg Radio] April 3, 2007


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[List-o-links] 4-2-07 Subprime Cuts: Turkey, Suing, Crimping

April 2, 2007 | 9:27 am | |

With enough here for two stomachs and my cow analogies running, well, thin, here’s a collection of some key prime mortgage stories of the week.

March Madness update: If Florida wins the championship tonight, I win the pool and my 8 year old comes in fourth!

but I digress…

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[In The Media] In Focus/Bloomberg, Nightly Business Report/WNET, Fox & Friends Clips

March 26, 2007 | 12:01 am | | Public |

Media appearances kind of snowballed this past week, so please indulge me. I promise to get back to more granular real estate analysis this week.

[March 26, 2007] Page Hopkins of Fox & Friends did the live interview with me and asked great questions. Admittedly my topic was wildy general and the basic message was: National housing stats are irrelevant and you need to look at your local market. Housing stats are trailing indicators and you need to look at economic indicators. Investment windows are more likely to be 5-10 years, much long than what many are accustomed too. Page said I said it was time to buy a second home and I am not sure where that came from – didn’t say that. Also spoke with the other two anchors in the green room and the weatherman. Nice people.

[March 22, 2007] The live Bloomberg TV interview was with Brian Sullivan, who is the host of a new show called In Focus, that airs every business day from 12-2pm. He’s a high energy person, seemed very nice. I love doing interviews at Bloomberg headquarters in Manhattan. Its all new, very high tech, runs like clock work, they spray the makeup on with a hose and best of all, the food is free.



[March 19, 2007] The Nightly Business Report interviewed me for the series: A Tale of 3 Cities which tracks the housing market in 3 US cities with Manhattan being the first. Suzanne Pratt was the very sharp reporter for the Manhattan segment and also is one of the anchors for the show.


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[List-o-links] 3-19-07 Subprime Cuts: Calling All Cows

March 19, 2007 | 12:01 am | | Public |

With the subprime cows relegated to dairy duty, here’s a collection of some key prime mortgage stories of the week.


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Housing Gloom Recap Leads To March Madness

March 13, 2007 | 10:33 am | |

Lets recap the potential path for housing and the economy based on news reported in March:

  1. Economy so-so
  2. Investors get risk averse
  3. Subprime defaults increase
  4. Mortgage underwriting guidelines tighten
  5. Weak housing market gets weaker as a result
  6. Housing related jobs decrease
  7. Economy weakens further, skirts with recession
  8. A few years of weak housing conditions remain

To expand on each point…

1. Economy so-so [FDIC – pdf]

Pronounced weakness in the housing sector is being largely offset by continued strength in the corporate sector, commercial construction activity, and exports…Still, some negative trends have emerged for banks. They include a narrowing of net interest margins, particularly among larger institutions; increasing concentrations of traditionally riskier commercial real estate loans; and emerging signs of credit distress in subprime mortgage portfolios. Ultimately, it is local economic conditions that are the most important determinants of credit quality and earnings strength at the majority of banks and thrifts. In this issue of the FDIC Outlook, our regional analysts identify trends that are expected to affect banking in their areas during the remainder of 2007.

2. Investors get risk averse [Bloomberg]
The concern over subprime lending and rising defaults is increasing the flight to safety. That is, investors are buying treasuries. Price goes up, yield goes down. Lower yields on a ten year have limited effect on most mortgage rates because the term is too short but still, it would probably help maintain a low rate environment.

“The biggest risk we can identify is from the spate of foreclosures in the subprime market increasing the inventory of unsold homes and weighing on home prices,” said Amitabh Arora, head of U.S. interest-rate strategy in New York at Lehman Brothers Inc. “We are much more cognizant of that than we used to be.”

3. Subprime defaults rise [MSNBC]

“Just as the case often was back in college, when you have too much liquidity sloshing around for too long, people tend to do some foolish things,” Wachovia senior economist Mark Vitner wrote in a recent research note. “Apparently that includes loaning money to folks with spotty credit histories to purchase homes not only to live in but also to speculate on.”

4. Mortgage underwriting guidelines tighten [WSJ]

Early February, the Federal Reserve reported a sharp increase in the number of banks tightening mortgage-lending standards. On Tuesday, Freddie Mac — whose main business is repackaging mortgages into mortgage-backed securities — said it was tightening standards on purchases of risky, subprime mortgages. On Friday, banking regulators proposed stricter mortgage guidance.

5. Weak housing market gets weaker as a result [LA Times]

That could hurt the housing market by shrinking the pool of eligible buyers. In addition, many homeowners with high-risk loans whose rates will adjust upward in the next year or two won’t be able to refinance into loans with better terms. That could put some into foreclosure.

6. Housing related jobs decrease [MSNBC]

Housing-related job losses once again put a dent in February job growth, which saw an overall gain of 97,000 — down from a gain of 111,000 in January. Employment in housing-related industries fell by 11,000 in February, bringing to 176,000 the total number of jobs lost in the sector since at sector since April 2006, according to figures compiled by Moodys.com.

7. Economy weakens further, skirts with recession [Bloomberg]

Alan Greenspan, who jolted investors by predicting a one-in-three chance of a recession this year, isn’t as bearish as the bond market, where the risk of a downturn is even money. The probability the U.S. economy will shrink for two quarters has risen to 50 percent, according to a model created when Greenspan ran the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The formula is based on differences in yields on Treasuries.

8. A few years of weak housing conditions remain [CNN/Money]

Celia Chen, director of housing economics for Moody’s Economy.com, says she thinks it will take until 2009 for prices nationally to reach the peaks hit in 2005. Take inflation into account, she said, and a full recovery could take more than 7 years.

I’d have to agree that its not simply a matter of time before the national housing market returns to 2004/2005 conditions. The housing boom was a period where all the stars were aligned and the universe was in sync. The combination of unusually low mortgage rates prompted by 9/11, loose or perhaps non-existent underwriting guidelines for mortgages, expansion of subprime lending, exotic mortgages, a solid non-inflationary economy, rising productivity, risk oblivious investors who had moved out of the stock market after the 2000-2001 period of volatility, shifting demographics that saw more immigration and a get rich quick mindset created the housing boom.

The news isn’t all bad, however. Modest growth in the housing sector would go a long way in keeping housing more affordable. I think Fannie Mae’s record of 69% home ownership reached last year, which has since slipped, is not going to be passed anytime soon.

On the bright side, March Madness is nearly here and my son’s basketball team won our town’s 3rd grade basketball championship.


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[List-o-links] 3-8-07 From The Tank: SUCK As A Real Estate Market Description

March 8, 2007 | 7:34 am | |

Here’s a collection of studies gathered from the Tank, with the exception of the first two. I was intrigued by the use of the word suck in public commentary. Uncommonly refreshing. This is the same person who characterized homebuilders as being in a death spiral last fall.


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[List-o-links] 2-20-07 From The Tank: Being On Vacation Means You Don’t Have To Say You’re Sorry

February 20, 2007 | 11:39 am | |

This week I am on vacation from taking vacations and have a little more free time to read from The Tank.



Housing Effect Is Taxing

February 13, 2007 | 8:27 am | |

On of the byproducts of the housing boom for many municipalities was the abundance of tax revenues created by rising property tax and transfer and recording tax revenues, along with increased sales taxes for housing related costs such as home improvement items. New York City government is actually running a surplus these days, primarily related to the housing boom. But this seems to be the exception, not the rule.

What happens when the tax money slows to a trickle? Services offered by local governments suffer. In Andrew Leonard’s How the World Works column Attack of the toxic housing bust [Salon] he discusses how the housing markets in California and Florida have been responsible for a significant loss of tax revenue for government coffers in January.

Florida’s housing woes are manifold: insurance rates are sky-high, prompting extensive government intervention. Foreclosures are spiking, leading one opinion columnist to urge Gov. Crist to declare a one-year-moratorium on new foreclosures. The special case theory is attractive: Few states have encouraged developers to act with as much freedom as Florida, and few have seen more frenzied bursts of speculative flipping. Now the state is paying the price.

Just this week, the Sacramento Bee reported that California also witnessed significant revenue shortfalls for January, which the state controller blamed on the real estate and construction industries.

Caroline Baum, one of my favorite Bloomberg columnists, states in her recent article Banks That Took Greenspan’s Advice Pay the Price [Bloomberg]:

“Housing and housing-related employment made up a little over 40 percent of all payroll employment from November 2001 to April 2005,” she says. “Employment in residential construction declined in nine out of the 10 months ended January 2007,” with 104,000 jobs in residential specialty trade contracting lost since the February 2006 peak, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

With the auto industry on the fritz, accounting for 1 of 6 jobs in the US and now housing market problems, I am skeptical that we are going to see a real long term threat from inflation and higher mortgage rates for the foreseable future.

Perhaps that will temper some of the ill effects caused by the housing slowdown in certain markets.


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[List-o-links] 2-1-07 From The Tank: GDP is PDG Sans Inflation

February 1, 2007 | 12:01 am | |

Since this week is all about stats, impressions and spin, here are a few shot from the turret of The Tank.


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[List-o-links] 1-11-06 From The Tank: Surge and Escalation

January 11, 2007 | 9:19 am | |

Since this week is all about surges and escalation, here are a few treads from The Tank.


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[Media Chain-Links Without The Snow] 4Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview

January 3, 2007 | 8:51 am | | Public |

The 4Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview that my appraisal firm, Miller Samuel, authors for Prudential Douglas Elliman, was released for publication today. In order to include the entire quarter for the study, I spent the good part of the New Years weekend while away on vacation in a Starbucks crunching and analyzing while drinking too many vanilla skim lattes. Thats why the pretty version of the report will be available in a few days rather at the point of release to the media.

The raw numbers were released and my summary of their interpretation were provided to the media for the coverage today. The actual data and charts will be available soon online. I tend focus only on the data collection, verification and analysis until the media publishes the findings.

Each quarter I place links to articles about our market report for a few days after publication for perspective (plus I am obessed with making lists) to make it easy to compare how each media outlet (big and small media, blogs) presents the exact same set of data.

This article list is presented in no particular order, basically when I found them. I also include some duplicate news feeds because I like to see what regions are interested in the story – I place those near the bottom because of the repetition. I’ll keep adding links through the end of the week.


Home Prices Fall Just a Bit; Brokers See ‘Soft Landing’ [NYT]
Manhattan real estate cools off [CNN/Money]
Real estate still strong [NY Daily News]
NYC APTS PRICED TO SELL: STUDY [NY Post]
Apartments up at least 5% in Manhattan [Newsday]
Manhattan Apartment Prices Rise 3.2%, Sidestep U.S. Declines [Bloomberg]
Reports Contradict Predictions of Apartment Market Slump [NY Sun]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [Reuters]
Brokerages Turn in Homework for the Semester [Curbed]
Brokerages: Market is stable [The Real Deal]
A Look Back in 2007! Manhattan Is Still an Islan [NYO-The Lab]
Reports show real estate slowdown [AM New York]
Average Manhattan apt: $1.2M [Metro]
Home is where B’klyn bucks are, reports show [NY Daily News]
Market for Manhattan Apts. Strong [Chicago Tribune]
Market for Manhattan apartments remained strong in 2006 [Boston Herald]
Real Estate Bubble Slowly Deflating, Not Bursting [Gothamist]
Market for Manhattan Apts. Strong [Tuscaloosa News]
Manhattan apartments go for an average $1.14-million (U.S.) [Globe and Mail, Canada]
Market for Manhattan apartments remained strong in 2006 despite national dip, analysts say [San Diego Union Tribune]
Market for Manhattan Apts. Strong [Sun-Sentinel]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [WaPo]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [MSN Money]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [KPLC-TV/Lake Charles, LA]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [Reuters Canada]
Market for Manhattan apartments remained strong in 2006 despite national dip, analysts say [IHT]
Mean Manhattan apt. price up to $1.1M [ABC]
Healthy Year for Manhattan Real Estate Market [RISMedia]
NYC Apartment Market Prices Up with Inventory Growth Dropping Sharply [Earthtimes]
NYC Apartment Market Prices Up with Inventory Growth Dropping Sharply [Yahoo Business]
Reuters Canada Business Summary [Globe and Mail]
Manhattan real estate prices still rising in Q4 [Inman – Subsc]
Manhattan real estate market remains strong [Courier News (NJ)]

Radio and TV clips

[January 8, 2007] The Real Deal
[January 7, 2007] WABC-TV
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV
[January 3, 2007] WABC-TV
[January 3, 2007] WABC-TV
[January 3, 2007] WABC-TV
[January 3, 2007] WNBC-TV
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV

[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg Radio
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg Radio
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg Radio


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