After reviewing an appraisal of a Manhattan sales transaction yesterday that had more than a dozen backup offers above list price (and not the first such situation we’ve seen recently), I thought I’d keep the listing inventory discussion train rolling on 3CW. I looked at a 12-year monthly co-op and condo inventory and named the housing stage at beginning of each year. Incidentally, Manhattan inventory has collapsed 54.5 percent from peak. The monthly 12+ year co-op and condo average is 7,292….
With the sales market heating up following the remarkable rental market run-up last year, I thought I’d look at the market share of rental versus sales activity. I compared them by using closed sales and closed rental transactions for all of 2012. Keep in mind that I only used new rentals (not renewals), since renewal data is not generally available (and not part of any rental market studies currently published)…
[click to expand chart]
Today’s Post: Manhattan Rental Market Trapped in Sales Brochure [Curbed]
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed NY
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed DC
Three Cents Worth Archive Curbed Miami
One of the biggest housing market complaints these days pertains to the lack of inventory, both existing and new development. Many would assume the complaining is only coming from buyers and real estate agents and not from would-be sellers. Of course, for those who are selling it should be a good time since the competition is limited, right?…
In case you have any doubts about the amount of compensation that the securities industry enjoys versus the private sector in NYC, I created the chart above. While the bonus comp results has been released for 2012, the salary data is not out yet so I built this chart from 1985-2011. In 2011, securities industry salaries + bonuses were 7x larger than private industry salaries.
In case you had any doubts about how important the industry is to the NYC, regional and state economy, hopefully you are now – love them or hate them.
Since Wall Street bonuses were announced yesterday and have been talked about and analyzed a lot over the past 24 hours, I thought I’d share the following video which apologizes a lot for compensation levels of the securities industry but breaks down the advantages of the bonus compensation practice on Wall Street.
Since New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli graciously accommodated our Tuesday Three Cents Worth release date with his report on Wall Street Bonuses, I thought I’d try to come up with a chart that somehow correlates Wall Street cash bonus payments and the Manhattan housing market. Prices don’t correlate well with any form of Wall Street bonus data and employment trends seem to be too macro to equate with annual housing price trends…
Since there was a recent theory proposed in the Journal about why Manhattan rents are currently flat or falling (they’re not falling), I thought I’d talk about the problem with the theory. It used a multi-year generalization (2007 to 2013) and applied it to explain the last four to five months of market behavior—which doesn’t explain what happened from 2007 to 2011 or what is currently happening. In theory I get the point being made—we have a lower level of financial services jobs than we did in 2007 and therefore more lower paying jobs are being seen in the rising employment numbers—and it’s a long term concern for both rental and sales…
Since the housing headline data theme of our January market report gauntlet in all 16 markets was the severe drop in inventory, I thought I’d break it down further. I looked at the transition from the month of December to January by week over the past four years to demonstrate two patterns: the level of inventory and the seasonality of inventory. Incidentally, the seasonal pattern for the prior 12 years I have the data for is nearly the same as 2010-2012, with the exception of 2008…
So it’s Whale Week on Curbed and I had to get a whaling reference into the post title. After a month at sea—sorry, another bad reference—it’s good to be back on Curbed. Consistent with this week’s theme, I took a look at the number of sales at the top 1 percent of Manhattan’s apartment market. The top 1 percent begins at about the $10M threshold (blue). And I threw in the $30M+ (pink) subset for good measure. I am only presenting closed transactions, so sales like the $90M+ contract at One57 aren’t included…
We just released Douglas Elliman’s rental report and one of the key results (aside from rents remaining very high) was that the pace of rental price increases are slowing. For the past two months the year-overt-year rise in median rental price has been at its lowest rate in more than a year. For this post I thought I’d illustrate this easing with a couple of scattergrams but without using price trends…
We’ve been delivering the monthly rental news that vacancy is falling and rents are high, but I also thought I’d show the relationship between Manhattan and Brooklyn. Admittedly I am comparing all of Manhattan with what we call the North and Northwest regions of Brooklyn, but it’s the trend I am after (the trend is your friend), plus I’m still working off my Thanksgiving spread.
I compared the monthly median rental price (face rent) for Manhattan (teal) and Brooklyn (purple) from January 2008 to October 2008 and simply trended the difference (pink)…
I started off trending the month-over-month percentage change in doorman (green line) and non-doorman (orange line) listings and they showed a very similar pattern [yawn] so I left the lines alone and looked at the larger pattern of peaks and troughs in listing activity at the end of the year. I’ve been tracking listing trends for more than a decade on a quarterly basis but only on a monthly basis since 2008 so I can’t go back pre-Lehman. I am especially interested in each fall market’s second sales hump (spring is hump number one) of the annual two-hump sales camel that occurs before the Thanksgiving holiday…
Although we are releasing our October rental report for Douglas Elliman tomorrow, this is Renters Week on Curbed, so every day is a rental and here is the market through the end of September (3Q 12). There’s a lot going on in this chart, but I repeat, this is Renters Week.
I took a look at the relationship between $ listing discount ($ difference between the original rental list price and rental price) and days on market from original list date. The cloud comments generally refer to the $ listing discount columns, but it’s interesting to see how much DOM flows (line) the same way. The bigger the $ distance between market rental price and list rental price, the longer a property takes to rent. Same logic applies to the purchase market.
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About Jonathan Miller
Jonathan Miller is President and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraisal and consulting firm he co-founded in 1986. He is a state-certified real estate appraiser in New York and Connecticut, performing court testimony as an expert witness in various local, state and federal courts. He holds the Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) and Certified Relocation Professional (CRP) designations. He is an Appraiser “A” Member of the Real Estate Board of New York and a member of Relocation Appraisers and Consultants, Inc. Learn More...
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“Jonathan Miller, owner of New York City’s Miller Samuel and one of the nation’s most prominent appraisers”–Money Magazine
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“Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel is a NYC real estate "cultural icon."”–Katherine Clarke, New York Daily News
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“It’s tough to find the good guys..Fortunately we found one. His name is Jonathan Miller.”–Glenn Beck, CNN
Columns by Jonathan Miller
'Three Cents Worth' column 3CW ('05-'16)
When Curbed was acquired by Vox, my eleven years of 3CW chart art and column links were broken on Curbed NY, Curbed DC, Curbed Miami, Curbed Hamptons, Curbed LA, and Curbed Ski.
I was recently interviewed by James Nelson, one of New York commercial real estate’s star brokers at Avison Young whom I’ve known since his Massey Knakal days. I’ve been on his podcast several times over the years and always enjoy… Read More