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[Special Report] 1Q 2010 Queens Market Overview

April 19, 2010 | 10:44 am | Podcasts |

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[Starting To] 1Q 2010 Queens Market Overview Available For Download

April 15, 2010 | 8:45 am | | Reports |


[click to open report]

The 1Q 2010 Queens Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 1Q 2010 data (shortly) and a series of charts (and a podcast) will be available soon.

Press coverage can be found here.

Since the neighborhood data is too thin to build a reliable trend line, we have grouped neighborhoods by logical regions based on housing stock.

An excerpt

…The average sales price was $391,444 in the first quarter, down 7.2% from $421,818 in the same period a year ago and down nominally from $394,730 in the prior quarter. Median sales price followed the same pattern falling 12.2% to $345,000 and down 1.4% from $350,000 in the prior quarter. The re-sale market, which represented 94.4% of all sales in Queens in the first quarter saw its median sales price decline 10.5% to $340,000 from $380,000 in the same period last year and down nominally from $343,000 in the prior quarter. New development sales, which represented only 5.6% of all sales in Queens in the first quarter saw more volatility in price indicators. The median sales price of new development sales fell 35.2% to $396,728 from $612,497 in the prior year quarter, but a large portion of this decline was a shift in the mix toward smaller unit sales rather than significant downward re-pricing of new development listings. The average square footage of a new development sale was 961 square feet, down 4.8% from the same period last year while re-sale property, a large portion includes 1-3 family properties was 2,039 square feet, up 6.1% over the same period…

1Q 2010 Queens Market Overview [Miller Samuel]



[Continuation] 1Q 2010 Brooklyn Market Overview Available For Download

April 15, 2010 | 8:39 am | | Reports |


[click to open report]

The 1Q 2010 Brooklyn Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 1Q 2010 data and a series of charts will be available shortly when I get my act together. The data section has been reconstructed – it wasn’t originally designed 8 years ago to handle the volume of data I have saddled it with and I am being told will be ready next week. I’ll announce it as a post as soon as it is ready. In addition. I’ll have a podcast uploaded shortly as well.

Press coverage can be found here.

Since the neighborhood data is too thin to build a reliable trend line, we have grouped neighborhoods by logical regions based on housing stock.

An excerpt

…The release of pent-up demand in the second half of 2009 continued into 2010 with the number of sales rising 56.9% to 1,861 sales from 1,186 sales in the prior year quarter. The number of sales in the first quarter was 11.1% below the prior quarter level of 2,093, much improved from the 35.9% quarter over quarter decline in number of sales in the prior year. The average quarter-over-quarter decline over the past 5 years is 5.8%. Listing inventory fell to 5,761, 4.7% below the 6,042 listings during the same period a year ago, but 5.6% higher than the 5,439 listings at the end of the prior quarter. The rise in number of sales and the decline in inventory over the year resulted in a significant improvement in the monthly absorption rateÑ the number if months it would take to sell all available listings at the current pace of sales. The absorption rate was 9.3 months, down from 15.3 months in the prior year quarter…

1Q 2010 Brooklyn Market Overview [Miller Samuel]


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[Special Report] 1Q 2010 Manhattan Rental Market Overview

April 8, 2010 | 11:34 pm | | Podcasts |

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[What A Difference a Year Makes] 1Q 2010 Manhattan Rental Market Overview Available For Download

April 8, 2010 | 12:20 am | | Reports |


[click to open report]

The 1Q 2010 Manhattan Rental Market Overview , part of a report series that we have authored for Prudential Douglas Elliman since 1994, was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

Press coverage can be found here once we get around to uploading it. In the meantime….

An excerpt

…While price indicators remain below the same period last year, face rents—rental prices before consideration of concessions—have shown stability so far in 2010. The average rental price was $3,812, down 8% from $4,142 in the prior year quarter and essentially unchanged from $3,789 in the prior quarter. Rental price per square foot was $46.91, down 3.1% from $48.41 in the prior year quarter, and down 0.2% from $47.02 in the prior quarter. Median rental price was $3,100, down 6.1% from $3,300 in the prior year quarter, but 6.9% above the $2,900 seen in the prior quarter…

Download 1Q 2010 Manhattan Rental Market Overview [Miller Samuel]


[Special Report] 1Q 2010 Manhattan Market Overview

April 6, 2010 | 8:53 pm | | Podcasts |

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[More of the Same] 1Q 2010 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

April 2, 2010 | 2:16 pm | | Reports |

The 1Q 2010 Manhattan Market Overview , part of a report series that we have authored for Prudential Douglas Elliman since 1994, was released today. We had problems with our web site host all morning and couldnt get the reports loaded until early afternoon.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 1Q 2010 data(coming later today) and a series of charts (acoming later today).

Press coverage can be found here once we get around to uploading it. In the meantime….

An excerpt

……There were approximately twice the number of sales in the first quarter of 2010 as the same period a year ago, however, this is the first quarter-over-quarter decline in the past year. The number of sales jumped 99.5% to 2,384 sales in the first quarter from 1,195 sales in the same period a year ago, but declined 3.6% from 2,473 sales in the prior quarter. The number of sales over the last three quarters has been consistent with the 2,301 quarterly average number of sales over the last decade. The first quarter of 2009 saw the lowest level of sales activity over the prior 15 years and was reflective of the nearly “frozen” market conditions after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in the autumn of 2008 and the onset of the credit crunch. The rise in the number of sales over the past year reflected a release of “pent-up” demand resulting in a decline in the number of apartments available for sale. Low mortgage rates, a surging stock market, tax credits, and a new affordability from a sharp decline in property values stimulated demand. There were 8,027 listings at the end of the first quarter, 23.1% below the 10,445 listings in the same period last year, but 17.2% higher than the prior quarter total of 6,851. This excludes, however, an estimated 6,500 units of new development “shadow inventory”. Although inventory is at its second highest level of the past decade, total inventory remains slightly above the ten year average of 7,117 listings…

Download 1Q 2010 Manhattan Market Overview

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[HUD] Housing Market Conditions, Loan Mod Redefault Risk

March 29, 2010 | 11:23 pm | |


[click to open map]

Today I received a nice note from an economist at HUD saying they are using the market report series we prepare for Prudential Douglas Elliman in US Department of Housing and Urban Development’s US Housing Market Conditions site, specifically their annual Regional Activity summary. Using-our-market-reports-aside, its a pretty good overview of what happened in each region. Sort of reminds me of a Beige Book-like housing analysis.

Not only that, but they provide access to a slew of data, research papers and reports as well as interactive maps that allow you to drill down to local levels.

This isn’t a sales pitch so check it out.

Here’s a hot button research paper on their site now:

Loan Modifications and Redefault Risk: An Examination of Short-Term Impacts

A primary concern with loan modification efforts is the seemingly high rate of recidivism. Within 6 months, more than one-half of all modified loans were 30 days or more delinquent and more than one-third were 60 days or more delinquent (OCC and OTS, 2008). Do these high rates of redefault imply that loan modifications are failing?

I would say as currently structured – YES.


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[NAR] Existing Home Sales – 3 Month Decline, Supply Most in Nearly 2 Years

March 24, 2010 | 12:06 pm |


[click to open report]

NAR released their February Existing Home Sales report.

Its becoming apparent to even the most optimistic that job growth will be the yardstick that determines when housing will improve to a point where it is self-sustaining.

“It’s a fragile recovery” in housing, said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates, in St. Petersburg, Florida. “We ultimately need to see job growth to get a sustainable rebound.”

Seasonally we expect inventory to rise in the spring, we also expect sales to rise.

Purchases dropped 0.6 percent to a 5.02 million annual rate, the lowest level in eight months, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. There were 3.59 million houses for sale, a 312,000 increase from January that marked the biggest gain since April 2008.

NAR’s chief economist is calling for a second surge or we are headed for problems.

Sales are up 7% compared with a year ago, the NAR’s data showed.

“We need to have a second surge,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the real estate lobbying group. However, the jury’s still out, he said.

“Has everything in the gas tank been used up?” Yun asked. “Or is this just a pause before the next step up?”

It’s hard to imagine a “pause” in February. I was surprised a complaint about the weather wasn’t used.


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[Knight Frank Research] The Wealth Report 2010 – Global High End Housing Down 5.5%

March 23, 2010 | 6:30 pm | | Public |

[click to open report]

The Wealth Report 2010 was released today by Knight Frank Research. It is a much anticipated annual survey targeted at the high end consumer with great detail on global residential property trends. The report covers 56 high end housing markets across the globe.

Check out The Housing Helix podcast for my interview with Andrew Shirley, Editor and Liam Bailey, Head of Residential Research for the Knight Frank Wealth Report 2010.

I had provided commentary on the NYC housing market for the report.

….While the market has undoubtedly improved compared with last year, we ought not to get too excited. The recovery of late 2009 was a short-term uptick, due in large part to a release in pent-up demand. My view is that the surge in demand is not the start of a rising housing market. While sales are up sharply, prices have moved “sideways.”…

Some interesting data points:

  • Overall annual global decline was 5.5%
  • Monaco saw prices as high as $5,900 p/SF US.
  • 73% of cities saw year over year declines versus 40% last year.
  • Middle East down 27.5% – the largest decline – Dubai showed a 45% drop.
  • Asia Pacific up 17.1% – the highest increase – Shanghai showed a 52% gain.

In light of this strong growth, the Hong Kong government has threatened measures to restrict the market – notably through mortgage lending restraint, reducing, for example, the mortgage limit for luxury property from 70% to 60%. Despite these potential restrictions the market continues to grow.

This example points to an interesting development. The crippling impact of property bubbles bursting in Europe and the US has created a much more confidently interventionist approach in China, Hong Kong and Singapore (where cooling measures were introduced in September last year) among other markets.

Listen to the interview with Knight Frank [The Housing Helix Podcast]
Download The 2010 Wealth Report [Knight Frank]


[click to play clip]

Update: Just came across the Bloomberg video and my interview giving a quick take on the US luxury portion.


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[Interview] The Wealth Report 2010 Knight Frank, Andrew Shirley, Editor + Liam Bailey, Head of Residential Research

March 23, 2010 | 4:55 pm | | Podcasts |

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[Interview] Debra Taylor Blair, Owner, LINK Boston

March 9, 2010 | 1:50 pm | Podcasts |

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