Matrix Blog

Market Reports

Rental Market Leads Sales Market

February 13, 2010 | 11:40 pm | |

Ok, so I have long said that sales lead housing prices, but what about rents?

The rental market leads the sales market. Its pretty logical since rents respond more quickly to employment trends than the sales market and employment is the key to economic recovery.

In an interesting CNN/Money/Fortune piece, which focuses on Deutsche Bank reports (which I can’t find yet)

…steady or even falling rents have pulled down housing prices, to the point where in many markets it costs about the same amount to own as to lease. That’s a golden mean that America hasn’t seen in almost a decade. The DB research also offers convincing evidence that the wrenching adjustment in housing prices is finished for much of the nation, with a bit more pain to come in selected areas.

They address the rent v. buy ratio which was:

  • 1999 – rents were 87% of ownership costs
  • mid-2006 – rents were 60% of ownership costs
  • 3Q 2009 – rents were 83% of ownership costs

In 2009, apartment rents dropped 2.3%, and the fall continues. And enormous adjustments are needed in still-exorbitant markets such as New York and Baltimore. Thankfully, the improving economy and decline in the rate of job losses means that rents should soon stabilize and could even start increasing by the end of 2010.

Frankly, a national decline in rents of 2.3% seems to understate the weakness of the rental market since the vacancy rate hit its highest level in 30 years at the end of 2009.

In New York City, the vacancy rate improved by 0.1 percentage point for the second straight quarter, but around 60% of rental buildings dropped their rents in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter. Effective rents — which include concessions such as one month of free rent — fell 5.6% in New York last year, the worst since Reis began tracking the data in 1990.



[Special Report] 2000-2009 Manhattan Market Report

February 8, 2010 | 1:05 pm | | Podcasts |

Read More


[Special Report] 2000-2009 Manhattan Townhouse Report

February 8, 2010 | 12:56 pm | | Podcasts |

Read More


[Special Reports] 4Q 2009 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview and 2000-2009 Hamptons/North Fork Market Report

February 8, 2010 | 12:41 pm | | Podcasts |

Read More


[Special Report] 4Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview

February 8, 2010 | 12:28 pm | | Podcasts |

Read More


[10 Stories] 2000-2009 Manhattan Townhouse Report Available For Download

February 4, 2010 | 8:50 am | | Reports |


[click to open report]

The 2000-2009 Manhattan Townhouse Report that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today. Dottie Herman, the President/CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman is pushing hard to make information more accessible to the public.

Approximately 2,500 Manhattan residential townhouse transactions were analyzed over this ten year period. 1, 2 and 3-5 (delivered vacant) family houses comprised the data set.

An excerpt

…The 2009 median sales price of a Manhattan townhouseÑdefined as a 1-5 family residence that can be delivered vacantÑfell 31.9% from the record set in 2008 to $3,400,000 from $4,995,000. The other price indicators showed a consistent trend over the same period with average sales price falling 32% to $5,012,736 and price per square foot falling 31.2% to $1,111. The decline in prices were not attributable to a shift to a larger mix of smaller sized sales as illustrated in the year over year consistency in square footage. The average size of a townhouse sale was 4,512 square feet in 2009, down nominally from 4,565 square feet in 2008 and was consistent with the 4,481 square foot annual average over the past decade…

Download the 2000-2009 Manhattan Townhouse Report

Download other market reports prepared by Miller Samuel


Tags:


[The PhoneBook] 2000-2009 Manhattan Market Report Available For Download

February 4, 2010 | 8:40 am | | Reports |


[click to open report]

The 2000-2009 Manhattan Market Report that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today. (I have been light on posts and podcasts in January – releasing 9 market reports in a month may have something to do with it.)

I have always referred to this report “The Phonebook” for its 61 pages of data largess. This report is downloaded more than all other quarterly studies we produce, combined.

Dottie Herman, the President/CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman whose name adorns the report is a big believer in historical information as a companion to cutting edge data to provide a better perspective.

Approximately 92,000 co-op and condo sales transactions from more than 6,500 buildings over the last ten years were analyzed. Each of the 53 different market areas have been presented with data tables and charts as well as a summary matrix that compare 2009 to the prior year (2008) and prior decade (2000).

An excerpt

…There were 6,851 listings on the market at the end of 2009, 24.6% less than 9,081 listings in 2008, which was the highest level of inventory in the past decade. The 2009 inventory level was in line with the 6,860 average annual inventory level of the past decade. This resulted in a monthly absorption rate of 11.1 months, up from a rate of 10.6 months in 2008 and above the 9.2 monthly average over the past decade. The cause of inventory decline in the first half of the year was the trend of sellers removing their property from the market in hopes of re-listing when market conditions improve substantially. The decline in inventory in the second half of 2009 was attributable to the surge in sales activity simply working off the properties on the market…

Download the 2000-2009 Manhattan Market Report

Download other market reports prepared by Miller Samuel


Tags: ,


[Summer In Winter] 4Q 2009 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview Available For Download

January 28, 2010 | 11:21 am | | Reports |


[click to view report]

The 4Q 2009 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

Charts will be available later today.

An excerpt

…The median sales price of an East End residential property was $701,161 in the fourth quarter, 1.6% higher than $690,000 in the same period last year and 0.2% above $700,000 in the prior quarter. This is the first year-over-year increase in median sales price since the first quarter of 2008. Average sales price was $1,313,264 in the fourth quarter, down 11% from $1,474,771 in the same period last year and down 2% from $1,339,510 in the prior quarter. The disparity between the median sales price, which removes outliers, and average sales price was attributable to general decline in prices at the high end of the market after rising faster than the overall market in prior years…

Download 4Q 2009 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview



[Better East End] 2000-2009 Hamptons/North Fork Report Available For Download

January 28, 2010 | 11:10 am | | Reports |

[click to open report]

The 2000-2009 Hamptons/North Fork Ten Year Market Report that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

Its an analysis of the past decade on the East End of Long Island and is considered a supplement to our quarterly report series.

Download 2000-2009 Hamptons/North Fork Ten Year Market Report



[A Better Finish] 4Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview Available For Download

January 28, 2010 | 10:36 am | | Reports |


[click to view report]

The 4Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

Charts with the 4Q 2009 will be available online later today.

An excerpt

…There were more sales in the fourth quarter than in any quarter over the past two years as purchasers took advantage of the firsttime buyer federal tax credit program, increased affordability and low mortgage rates. There were 5,935 sales in the fourth quarter, 34.1% more than 4,427 sales in the same period a year ago and 5.9% more than 5,603 sales in the prior quarter. The current pace of sales has doubled from the low point in the first quarter of 2009, when there were 2,872 sales, but still remained 22% below the peak of 7,607 sales during the third quarter of 2004, the height of the housing boom. Listing inventory declined as a result of the increase in the number of sales. There were 19,450 listings, 6.2% below 20,730 listings in the prior year quarter and 12.3% below 22,170 listings in the prior quarter…

Download 4Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview



[NAR] Existing Home Sales Plunge…As Expected

January 25, 2010 | 10:11 pm | |


[click to expand]

Last month home sales spiked as first time home buyers rushed to take advantage of the tax credit before the November 30 expiration and no one was sure that the credit would be extended. As a result, the December sales reflect the sharpest decline in existing home sales in 40 years.

From the NAR press release for existing home sales:

After a rising surge from September through November, existing-home sales fell as expected in December after first-time buyers rushed to complete sales before the original November deadline for the tax credit.

fell 16.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 5.45 million units in December from 6.54 million in November, but remain 15.0 percent above the 4.74 million-unit level in December 2008.

NAR couched the bad news with a sprinkling of good news:

  • 5,156,000 existing-home sales in 2009, 4.9 percent higher than the 4,913,000 transactions recorded in 2008; the first annual sales gain since 2005.
  • National median existing-home price for all housing types was $178,300 in December, 1.5% higher than 2008

The worry here is not about the 16.7% decline – the concern is the removal of the tax credit as a stimulus for demand. I’m not advocating one way or the other – I am merely observing that housing does not yet stand on its own two feet so calling a bottom or a recovery is a mischaracterization.


Tags: ,


[Special Report] Brooklyn Market Overview 4Q 2009

January 21, 2010 | 1:27 pm | Podcasts |

Read More

Get Weekly Insights and Research

Housing Notes by Jonathan Miller

Receive Jonathan Miller's 'Housing Notes' and get regular market insights, the market report series for Douglas Elliman Real Estate as well as interviews, columns, blog posts and other content.

Follow Jonathan on Twitter

#Housing analyst, #realestate, #appraiser, podcaster/blogger, non-economist, Miller Samuel CEO, family man, maker of snow and lobster fisherman (order varies)
NYC CT Hamptons DC Miami LA Aspen
millersamuel.com/housing-notes
Joined October 2007